cover of episode The Chopping Block: How Prediction Markets Outsmarted the 2024 Election feat. Laura Shin - Ep. 733

The Chopping Block: How Prediction Markets Outsmarted the 2024 Election feat. Laura Shin - Ep. 733

2024/11/8
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H
Haseeb Qureshi
管理合伙人、投资人、程序员和有效利他主义者,专注于加密货币和区块链领域。
L
Laura Shin
独立记者和《Unchained》播客主持人,专注于加密货币和区块链技术的报道。
R
Robert Leshner
T
Tom Schmidt
Topics
Haseeb Qureshi: 我认为主流媒体忽视了预测市场中可能存在的某种领先信息,他们将预测市场与传统民调结果的差异简单归因于参与者的偏见,而没有考虑到预测市场可能捕捉到民调所遗漏的信息。我原本预计选举结果揭晓过程中的波动性会更大,但实际情况是,随着特朗普胜算增加,结果持续好于预期,加密货币市场也表现得比我预料的更稳定。 Tom Schmidt: 我也认为加密货币市场在选举结果揭晓过程中的波动性比预期要小。我原本预计会出现更大的方向性波动,但实际情况并非如此。 Robert Leshner: 我认为,与主流媒体相比,观看预测市场的结果更有效率。主流媒体在午夜时分仍拒绝宣布选举结果,而预测市场已经显示特朗普胜选概率达97%-98%。加密货币领域对选举的体验与主流媒体大相径庭,这使得预测市场成为当晚的焦点。 Laura Shin: Polymarket在总统大选市场上的交易量超过33亿美元,其对特朗普胜选的预测与主流媒体和模型预测存在显著差异。主流媒体将预测市场与民调结果的差异归因于偏见,认为预测市场参与者多为支持特朗普的加密货币爱好者,并且没有考虑到预测市场可能捕捉到民调未捕捉到的信息。选举前,人们特别关注Polymarket上被称为“特朗普鲸鱼”的投注者,他最终获利超过5000万美元。他认为民调的抽样方法存在偏差,“害羞的特朗普支持者”效应导致民调结果失真,并通过“邻居效应”来克服民调偏差。许多人私下支持特朗普,但公开表达的意愿较低,这与“特朗普鲸鱼”的观察结果一致。人们普遍相信民调能够准确反映民意,但这次民调结果却严重失真。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner get together and give the industry insider's perspective on crypto. This week, Laura Shin joins the squad to help break down the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and its impact on the crypto landscape. With a new pro-crypto administration on the horizon, they explore what Trump’s stance on blockchain regulation could mean for the industry, from ETFs and stablecoin legislation to the potential of a national Bitcoin reserve. They also dig into the power of prediction markets, which outperformed mainstream media in election coverage, signaling a shift in trust and transparency. From the populist appeal of crypto to the challenges facing a divided Democratic Party, this episode uncovers the political dynamics that could drive innovation or stifle growth in the U.S. crypto market. Expect insights on the forces shaping America’s crypto future and the role of policy in crypto’s place on the global stage.

Show highlights

🔹 Prediction markets outpaced mainstream media in calling the 2024 election, marking a shift in how people track election outcomes.

🔹 Trump’s pro-crypto stance signals potential changes for the industry, from new ETFs to a possible federal Bitcoin reserve.

🔹 The Democratic Party’s anti-crypto stance highlights a disconnect between progressive values and blockchain innovation.

🔹 As prediction markets gain popularity, more Americans rely on them over traditional media for real-time election insights.

🔹 One high-stakes bettor’s multi-million-dollar wager on the election paid off, thanks to a unique strategy involving the "neighbor effect."

🔹 The Democratic Party’s focus on "woke" issues may have contributed to a historic loss, raising questions about the future of these policies.

🔹 With pro-crypto Republicans in control, sweeping legislative changes are expected, from stablecoin laws to crypto tax reforms.

🔹 Crypto’s anti-elite appeal is resonating with populist movements, indicating a potential path for mass adoption.

🔹 The idea of Bitcoin on the U.S. national balance sheet is gaining traction as a pro-crypto administration takes office.

🔹 Political choices could propel or stifle America’s standing as a global leader in blockchain innovation and technology.

Hosts

⭐️Haseeb Qureshi), Managing Partner at Dragonfly 

⭐️Tom Schmidt), General Partner at Dragonfly 

⭐️Robert Leshner), CEO & Co-founder of Superstate

⭐️Laura Shin), journalist, author of ‘The Cryptopians,’ founder and CEO of Unchained

Disclosures)

Links

Kamala Harris Shouldn’t Just Embrace Crypto. She Must Help It Flourish by Laura Shin:

https://time.com/7111315/kamala-harris-crypto-laura-shin-essay/

How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election by Alexander Osipovich

https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d

**Timestamps **

  • 00:00 Intro

  • 01:17 Election Night Observations

  • 04:32 Polymarket's Role

  • 06:19 French Whale x Neighbor Effect

  • 14:52 Mainstream Media vs. Prediction Markets

  • 25:54 The Future of Prediction Markets

  • 27:26 Crypto and the Democratic Party's Missteps

  • 30:30 Democratic Party's Superiority Complex

  • 31:38 Crypto's Global Impact and Legislation

  • 43:23 Predictions for Crypto's Future in the U.S.

  • 49:47 The Return of Crypto Companies to the U.S.

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