Bits + Bips: Trump Won and the Question Is: Do You Have Enough Crypto? - Ep. 731
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I think this keeps them going to lear and and one should be distress for people here should not be are we going to pull back, but should be a long enough.

Welcoming the bitch and bps, expLoring how cyp to a mcpr o collide one base point at a time under host James safer, tradin arch master glora of blimber, then here, without frugal sugar, metro a house as guard protector of the ARM work, going to discuss the latest stories in the world's of trip to and map o news just remember that nothing we say here is investment advice.

Please check on trying for the doctor flash fits and tips for more disclosures today. We're also joined by two people, personal batterson, high seer expert, now news letter also join us as roomy mr. Alf.

lead of today's episode is brought to you by german I A U S B script dial exchange built for new and advanced traders. Germany is offering new customers fifteen dollars in B, T, C, when they sign up today to earning bitcoin. If you know.

I want to just give for anyone who doesn't know if you are, just give a quick background and who you are in twenty seconds. And then we can dive into this after around to his quick background.

K, twenty seconds. Good thing in marriage because they speak very fast. So here we go. I come from twenty five um thirteen years and three five ten ten years and twenty five thirteen years running in e commerce company.

I found IT well into cypher to twenty fourteen work for cof five years set up their research team at the same for genesis is trading left two thousand twenty two to focus on what I really care about, which is how the clipt ecosystem is impacting the macro o landscape. And that's what I do now. I write the crypto is macro now newsletter on sub stack .

yeah once you give a quick background lobby brief .

um i'm rm olivicia I lead alumina wealth or a private wealth management firm. Uh we focus on cross aster class investing, but worked for a lot exited founders and crypt or natives and then in the busing business for long time.

All right, let's get into IT uh red wave in that election. Um bitcoin pumping. I mean, one of my takes that i've told most of my friends was that trump wins.

We're going to take out the inflation adjust that all time high in bitcoin. And we got got pretty m closed. I think the number seventy seven and seventy eight would would be the all time high if you inflation adjust, everything's pumping in the crypto world. I mean, everything like honestly, my view is if you are invested in a stock or some some sort of cyp to and I didn't pump over the last like twenty four hours, you should probably like reconsider or understand what's going out there. But I don't know if you guys what you guys have thoughts are before we we died too deep into what we saw.

huge surprise. Uh, obviously welcome surprise. When IT comes to crypto, we have to the course remember that cyp t does not the only thing that voters care about, but definitely good news for the crypto weaker system.

Of course, there is the risk that crypto s expectations run away from themselves. You know, shocker never happened before before because we're not necessarily going to get the regulation. We are hoping for one day one.

We're not necessarily going to even get IT perhaps with in the first year. So expectations perhaps need a little bit of tempering. That said, just even replacing the chief of the S. C, C would be good enough.

Yeah, we have a change in character and trend the market, right? The market topped out after the main coin craze, and I was in the spring of this past year. It's bottom down.

And now we have a series of higher lows. So that is a change in market character. So you know you got to approach this as a class differently.

I think it's gna help names, uh, like uni swap, for example. Imagine we got a token that can flip on the fee switch ignition dividend to an investor or can do buybacks. And I think those kinds of ideas will work well, um I think will mental mater to work well.

Also, I think you're going to see the IPO market open up. Icon market just opened up today. I the vibe session is over today, by the way, too.

It's psychology. This psychology, at least I did for fifty two percent of americans, right? Because yesterday was hundred percent in vive session.

Now it's fifty, fifty percent or not. And the IPO markets open up. I think we will see circle IPO. I think you might see a chanelle sis IPO. And that's .

going good question for you. When would you think if you have any estimate? I don't not sure.

sorry.

the I P O market q one I think for we've goes public. Q and let's relevant because they have a commercial agreement with course scientific right there. A lot of these biton miners repositioning as A I plays and that's going to reliquit.

Y the venture capital markets both for traditional VC like, let's say stripe goes public, but also for scripted VC. We need to pay out distributions and SAT reinvigorate the ecosystem. Now when I P, O happens once time. Look, I remember coin based IPO April twenty one. I don't have good to go IPO three days for ganser took his chair see.

that was at the point where we all thought gazer might be like a somewhat procris pt of commissioner to remember. So right? We thought .

we thought you would bridge the gap. And you know, piano sky working that.

How how nice would be to have the the market top when circle? I beals? No.

no. So later, later we wanted to be later, not, not then we also have to remember that if and this isn't if still if, we do get some clarity over what other disclosures are needed for token issuance, then there's a different type of IPO market that can start to emerge. People actually going back to issuing tokens with the full disclosures the rules require to raise for innovative projects. Innovation got a very big bump.

Hundred percent agree. It's a fantastic point like you can get a disclosure regime that health investors make Better decisions people been asking for. And you know now we can start cogan ized digital assets on chain and music royalties, which i'm very excited about and start brought ending the cultural relevance of digital.

It's fun fact. One of the number one or number two apps downloaded yesterday was Polly market yet only was koshi. That's product market fit and it's working in the way it's supposed to.

The end user doesn't even know it's powered by digital assets like tc pip for the internet. And the irony is that it's an APP that's used to one speculate you know on two policy and regulation. You can make that up.

I talk about I have feeling that was the peak though a little while .

football .

keep product markets that .

we might wait for four years before they top those numbers again. Yes.

I think you right know. I got ta say actually, I think users knowing that their building with crypto in the back end, it's we actually want that to happen. Like there's a lot of examples where where users are using cricket and they're not aware of IT.

And what happens is that money doesn't flow into the crypto ecosystem and IT doesn't circulate and IT doesn't really bring a much value. You can you can even think of this many cases of this. Like, for example, if he was read IT N F T some body gon ah they were quite huge and they didn't they didn't do anything.

So this this I think we actually do want. I'm stressed this because we is something that we see a lot encysted that we but how great would I be? Everybody using block chain and in the back and not be an aware, and I think is the opposite. We want them to be aware and they control of those assets and and have a awareness fair engh fair.

And now you know what other point should raise is like good like you're going get stable coin policy and regulation. And that's a use case over a lot of people can relate to that. Bill has been stalled just got by partin support.

So then we'll see t that into your point, alex. People on the front end at the apple level was art to you engage in these transactions? yes.

And the branding and the end that comes down to branding, I think you're right, alex. I always was of the camp. We don't want people to talk about IT. We just want them to use IT. But the branding could certainly use a boost.

But then the question is, what branding do we want cyp to, to be associated? Is a block chain or is a digital asset? I mean, what are we what kind of brand thing do you want?

I like digital asset. You got to make this names train.

I like that. That's the term I using in a lot of my writing, personally speaking. But I also have a lot of more restrictions .

because even compusa, stable coin, the home yeah and the crypt a will always be that you'll always have a fairly substantial faction that associated with with the criminals on the floor and everything, unfortunately and unfairly, but that is still the case. I mean, does something does bitcoin become a digital asset or .

is a descriptive currency? Ove, in my opinion.

think that depends on the audience. I actually am very attached to to the world crypto um and yeah try fy and and politics. You say a digital assets that's the brand that you turn around and you talk about cypher, there's a lot of things that happened there. They're not really suitable for, for traditional finance peeps.

right? And also crypto does still have the privacy connotations that those of us in the industry care about.

Yeah I mentioned like I can, my expectation is the trump in like I said, the inflation adjusted time is short term. That's a very short term thing that I thought might happen. Um the question is, I mean, the market at the bit went up like over a one hundred billion dollars in less than twenty four hours.

I can really talk about like tactical moves, but I know Alice can and I know ROM can and i'm assuming the old can. Like do you think this is a near term top? Or you are you selling some of this? Or did you go leverages long into this and take off your leverages? Like what's your view .

that's the first thing actually want when like stress on, they see a lot of people already talking about getting out the position or a only run to match and going short and uh and a lot of people really talking about uh, taking profit uh or concerned that Price and run up enough come on is up nine percent what you expect. Uh and uh it's it's just wrong. It's uh yet like I was i've been talking about this all night. Uh, in fact he ah so this is my static face is like I actually my this static but sorry.

think pretty well for someone who has a slap that's amazing.

what.

That's that's when I have a very bad trade and I have to break. So is two ways to think about that. I think there are very fundamental important and this is really important at the beginning of of a trend like this is one is from a technical perspective, we have actually did the longest range in in forever in bitcoin is a range which means very well defined range and that which means basically people when you break the range that turning turning their hedges on and put popovers on, on the upside and similar the downside, and we broke to the upside.

So when the longer the range, the more ones should expect prize to run in the direction of the breakout, in this case higher, that's technically and fundamentally, this is a systemic change. This is really, really fundamentally and important change for bit on talking about bitcoin as reserve acid. They are talking about even just the mention of this is talking about no taxes on bitcoin.

The U. S. yeah. Probability that happens within the four years is like one percent point one percent as a matter as being discussed, is insane.

On the, on the the regulatory front, we gonna see a lot of changes coming through. IT may be slow, but is still a massive fundamental change. We have technicals of fundamentals, which is, this is the place where I listen, my book, you let IT run.

And if you're wrong and you round trip the whole thing, well, too bad IT happens. You know it's it's sometimes things go wrong, but that's the play right now is is just keeping the rains. What you guys think there is .

also the designated ed earlier, the risk that were over expecting the rectory changes. But longer term, totally agree with you, are overlooking the macro implications here. Trm presidency is going to be more inflationary than we are probably Priced in right now.

Throp are inflationary. Deporting immigrants, ces and freshly because of the way impact on wages, tax cuts are inflationary. So the expectations for wake cuts will adjust.

That could also cause some some putting a cap on the on the run. But we're looking at increased spending, especially if the republicans get the senate and the house. We're looking at increase spending. We're looking at accelerated currency, the basement. We're looking at inflation coming back and that's the macro o tAilings for a bit coin.

which are going to be very material. Yeah, I agree with a lot of common service. They looked the trend is now up, and this will continue until we get an event or set of events where you get peak enthusiasm, and that's ahead of us.

Markets have things to look forward to. Um so it's very tactically in the short term, that's much harder to call. What ideas have a daily process every morning, and my team and I will look at how folks are positioned, uh, for example, looking at uh, options data, for example.

So I do wanna at that first and tomorrow morning. So we did that this morning, we could clearly see people wrong way position. I did a post uh, two days ago and again yesterday saying that you don't want to be hedge and you want to be long and you know that's how we are positioned.

And so as that are are rerating because that but it's important not to feel the homo and just like playing the fire if you if you missed IT, i've never seen an asset that doesn't give you another entry point, right? People talking about copper. Copper is like down today.

Okay, gold is done today. So you know there are other entry points that uh will present themselves. There's a lot of excitement. Uh, the other observation says that there is concept or he called a hot ball of liquidity and what that means is markets will rerate very quickly replace a lot of enthusiasm.

Nice traveler shows a piece of this with china when David tepper spoke and seen B C is also for the theory um in may um you've seen this in uranium stocks just a week ago or two weeks ago and our uranium stocks have come tumbled out. So the average age window of time in which this run up takes place, where that peak enthusiasm everyone is trying to get in the market is around one to two weeks. That's an interesting rule of them to have. Now you get adopted for the local situation too, right? So I don't think this is a two weeks, probably a little shorter than that in terms of the kind of the near term rally because it's so that which the force is so significant, it's pulled forward a bit of that.

So yeah, I mean, I don't know you you if trumped is even a fraction of the positive things he's saying he was going to do for the space. He's four years in office. He put somebody who's proper to actually make some rules, sex, some guidelines for what these companies should and shouldn't be doing.

Um I I and I do think no matter even if trumps an office, there are going to be rules to come out that this industry is going to be unhappy with. But I still think could be Better than the the unknown we currently have. So I don't know is there's a lot of part, honestly, even even if they just stop doing all the negative and tagish things that this this current admin, the one that's on the way out was doing.

Um I think it's a net positive for the space. I mean, it's just the the positive Price moment that makes complete sense to me no matter how you slice IT. I know I don't think yeah so near triple vaccinated, but long term IT looks extremely positive as far as I concerned.

I think medium term, medium term up, I is funny, a dialogue with an entrepreneur or name that person, but the person like I want to build and I have to call my lawyer that's one. And eating about the the dollars lost on a lawyers and responding to enforcement increase, uh, it's been uh significant without having interpretative guidance in the c mean, there's no rules, the road that have been published during this entire S C C ministration, whether claiming that those clarity it's so um yeah I think you to see more innovation, more A P development. It's it's an exciting time.

And the anthy, if I missing marketing factor of all of that, if we start to see some of the world in the processes being walked back, some of the outstanding lawsuits being walked back, that's low hanging fruit that makes headlines, that gets people interested in encrypt a where ross is freed that makes headlines that gets people interested. They're going to be a lot of mainstream interest because of what they're seeing across their fees as well as because of the dialogues they'll be having with their .

friends and family layer fees. I mean, i've read more legal documents in relation to the bitcoin, the theme. T S.

The lawyers aren't just raked in cash. I know what the government is doing right now. I mean, they real against the government, but they are definitely raked in cat ash with what they have. But that time I rule making and something we've been saying on this podcast for months, the trump win is more positive for defy than IT is necessarily for bitcoin in specifically some other things in the Price moment than we've seen over the last twenty four hours.

It's proved that I mean, you look at, you look at all bet, you look at you to swap, you look at later, you look at a theo, you look at all these other like truly defy centralized finance type applications using gypt o currency or blockchain. And they're up twenty plus percent in many cases over the last twenty four hours, which to me makes a lot of sense. I don't know if you guys have like more complex thoughts other than the fact that IT makes sense, that they're braying .

as much as they are. Point, it's a perfect point. Look, bitcoins, a commodity that settled so changing uh really doesn't impact bitcoin as much. IT does help on the banking side because the banks can interact with digital assets and custody and service of distribution layer and users of former settlements. There is value creation on that side.

But to your point, I can in my mind the two highest use cases for digital assets are one toga ization stable points are one instance of that um but the second is defy right the ability have trustless settlement with the counterparty and borrow land on chain. That's what banks we're created for and the bill to do that without having to have a trust requirement where you can see the entire ledger and valuation on chain and create liquidity on a smart contract that you can audit IT. I think that's very powerful and that we haven't not seen the full potential of that innovation.

It's an innovation that I would actually put the level of civilization level innovation because prior to that, he was bank from milenio, borrow, shore, landon, take deposits, custody, fractions of banking. You got a hope that people on shop the same time. This is a in innovation that would not be possible without digital networks uh, and cryptography.

Private public kids of very is something that can only arrive in in a modern so yeah, I agree. I think that's uh that's a very encouraging. And me think about like the two thousand and eight cries, one of the reasons why i'm excited about digital asset, I was that marrin's in the two thousand eight crisis I lived at forty five all street and we saw the these banks blow up because they had illiquid o OPEC.

securities. No knew that are these things were no knew, you know, we're in the bonds. You think about the the scene from the way the big short where Michael berries crying on the floor tranter of the photo score.

That's the world we still largely live in, by the way, that we still live in that world. And you can move to the world of more transparency, more liquidity and less counterparty risk. And especially .

if you get the cross border transfers smooth, are especially if IT becomes easier to spin up new markets in places where there aren't they don't have the current infrastructure 乃至 what that will do to the distribution of savings as well as unlocked the financing of individual projects in areas that currently don't have that kind of activity。 But but another another thing to think about is, again, what kind of products will we see? A man, imagine, James, you have a lot more coming your way in terms of etf legal documents because across your life ve had many times today.

Is what's the next etf that gets approved assuming there is a change of regime at the S C, C, which safe to assume is that going to be another clip to assets such as sole? Or are we going to see the etf? So are you the ef etf allowed to distribute?

I would like we see some sort of formal process started. So right now, we have applications out there for sole. Um I mean so eve, so ripple, uh like coin, actually there's there's an application is a live application from the hash tax that I as soon will be approved some point in the very near future for the holds multiple coins.

But yeah, I think we're going to see those single assets we also don't have in time create regime on the on the etf. I'm expecting that to happen within a year or two. I mean, no matter what, like even if favorite place, the S C, C.

Commissioner, I mean, I don't remember exactly when denser came in, but I was like june of the year. So like we could even if if truck moves as quickly as possible, like c isn't going to get a new commissioner for eight months from now potentially. I mean, therefore, ally, you can get into m one.

Maybe that has to purse, who knows, but you're not going to do any like huge big movements. I wouldn't think based on how I know things Operate. So um yeah I don't have big thoughts. I would say solon, I would probably the next etf to expect salona ripple.

Some some of the some of the considerations are one you know this survey ance rules, right? That's do you have another exchange and on the driver of side and sana m of futures contract, yeah expect see that .

the problem is that not technically required. So that's just the president that this c admin and the prior S C admin has said. And really there's no like S C rule, the official rule that says this isn't happen is just impressive for them approving things in the task.

And theoretically, if you just like there's plenty of commodity etf that have been approved in the past that had nothing that would satisfy that. We have we have a vietnam to we don't have surround eringer and so over like the equities that trade there and things like that. So there's other things that happens if theodoret ally IT could happen without out that.

But even so, even even if say comes in in will call IT April really early or may and somebody decides the files or somebody even files like next week, you ve got two hundred and sixty days before you even get an approval. So like we're talking way out to we're looking into the second half of twenty twenty five before any new etf launched that assume ming. There are no road blocks held up, which I wouldn't count on.

So I will happen. It's just I don't know exactly when IT depends how aggressive and things move. I guess is what I would say.

yes, many of time for .

front running basic that .

you what what would you need new regulation around the definition of whether seller .

is hurtle? No, I think what I mean right now, if you look at guess, you see and and see if you see have been in fighting over the exact topic on every different digital asset out there on whether it's security, your commodity and maybe you get like actually somebody in there that's not being, you know, isn't una leash with eliz with warm being told what to say and what to do, how strick to be about, like what these things aren't? You can get some role making.

I mean, there's plenty of proposed bill from the uh, the legislative brand. So you look, you know the republicans are going to have to send again. Also you get some sort of like market structure build that the lines ates, what's the security and what's the commodity.

Um if you get some role making, like there's a lot of things, it's just it's just not something that's gna happen immediately. Like I think feel like some people think like trumps could come in generate and all this is going to be done in two two months. It's going to done, but um even day one. But that's that's not the way government works. Even if even if you have elan must can try in the government.

Yeah yes. And getting that regulation through take a long time because they've going to have a lot of other things to worry about. And one thing we saw with the supreme court just he goes this year isn't IT.

IT decided that the S E, C can't make sweeping rule changes. So even if we get his appearance on day one, hopefully SHE probably wouldn't have her hands tied as to how much he can change. Just to approach again, just getting some of the current actions of the table that would .

be a gona start chart and carlo could be the many chron. Carlo former C, F T C formation er so you need someone like that, that understands the commodity side as well, the security side and digital assets can interact with policymakers, I thought would be one of the home run picks.

Yeah, i've heard heard i've heard heef tarbert is a front runner as well and he's now at circle, which was sort of close the circle, if I may, as during the stay points into the regulation.

I did run the c fc in the two thousand, so he has an experience you wanted. Be careful what you wish for.

Well, I mean, just want an opportunity. And like as you point that out, James, and the issue that the dnc is facing this morning is that essentially their messaging in part and policy certainly was captured by the progressive wing, that by elisabeth warn and the anti crypto army and that did not play well.

By the way, it's brought of the digital assets and it's is true for uh, the thinking category small, but a lot of folks that you clearly like trump on the popular vote, on the popular vote, not just the electoral college. So the d nca. Fail to read the room at a very fundamental level.

And there's an interesting question around, did the media believe their own stuff? Like what happened there? How how do those bubbles peers? You know so i'm current here. You are testing what you .

think happened yeah I mean, I one hundred percent think the you know the main inc. Media fighting their own. They were they said everyone on twitter was in their own bubble to media was in their own bubble.

I think a lot of the mainstream media types tend to be, I mean, you live in new york city, you live in washington, D C. Like you're you're in all these like more liberal, progressive states, and you're around all the same people, many of masters degrees and journalism. And you have like a very similar background and I feel like this bit, i'm not the first person to say this. The main street media just find out out of touch with like everyday americans with the most part. And it's pretty clear that that's the case here that I mean, that's my personal of you.

makes absolutely true. Also, the mainstream.

the mainstream media needs access to the establishment. That's where they get their interviews. That's where they get their stories.

That's where they get some of their advertising dollars. They need that access. And that is what closes them off to whats going on that. That also is what makes them very eager to drink, the establishment coolie that they are handled. And I think wrong raises are really important question.

And what happens now? Do we start to see bankrupcy and some of the mainstream meat organizations as advertizing revenue dries up? What happens to, you know, the very well meaning journalists they have working for them? Does this lead to an explosion of creativity? Or does IT lead to centralization somewhere else?

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You know, I do wanna say on this I think is very, very important. And I want to link IT back to what we will talk him out. At the beginning the the market were pricing in somewhere around fifty, fifty IT was a coin tos. Was you not just took in the crypto guys where more way more bullish was not fifty fifty for us, but everybody is was else was fifty fifty, which means positioning was fifty fifty a .

poly market? Was more poly market?

Was Polly market? Yeah that that us right? That the point is .

maybe it's maybe we know the crowds, maybe that's a global crowd sourcing. Maybe we underrated polymer. Polymer even last last night was knifing out the electron for trump while the .

media had not to sixty, forty or sixty two, thirty eight. Let's say you're right. I think you maybe right. I I would lead in between because he's a very liquid market.

But let's say you right, and we had something pricing of sixty, forty, but that means is that a systemic change doesn't get Price in overnight or in my humble opinion, in two weeks. It's too big as why elections are very they're not a bit commit. They're very hard to Price in. So I think this keeps someone to the aranda. And one should be the distress for people here should not be, are we going to pull back? But should be, am I long enough?

I think that that that I think a lot .

and I I agree agree that too. And again, it's not just the regulatory overhang being lifted. There's the macro o considerations, which we have not yet, man, we have not eating got a glimpse of what came down the pipeline there.

So so this was to to to to the media saying, right the like I agree with what you guys we're saying this some sort of I we're talking about this before we started this train, by the way, that is kind of like not only that they push in some sometimes some cases, some people in the audience going to push back, but they pushed a false scarcity. But it's also the fact that anything actually, they believe what they're saying is not just all make belief. They already made themselves as belief .

and they're a well meaning. They're not bad people. They're just drank certain kuo laid and convinced their right .

yeah I gary look is a general exxon ety that's been a hanging over the population that term of art that's been using vibe session. I think we're actually a goldy ox economy. That doesn't mean that there aren't chAllenges.

That does not mean inflation isn't going higher IT doesn't an that people are working two jobs, not doesn't that. But gold ox isn't mean that gold ox means our earnings going up, the consumer level, the corporate level or access to credit, the economy growing. That's what good relax means, and that's constructed for discussions.

And now you saw the vicks melt away today. Several points have been elected, twenty percent twenty level for weeks, despite industry being near all time highs. That anxiety is melting away at the clouds are lifting the blue guys playing the rays of lighter, shining down.

Uh, so I agree, I think overall, you know, living inside the nair term kind of tactics, this is a risk on environment. You know, I would say the mister market was snipping out this window. Financials were up yesterday before the election.

The every category, the market was Green, the dollar strength was showing dollar up is trump bump phenomenon. Financials are squarely trump because financials and banks have less regulatory capital requirements under a trump sions to the highly sensitive look at a exos bank, that's the bank that were trump banks up twenty percent today, by the way. But other banks yesterday and monday were also going up.

I bought flagstar bank that that run by Steve manual from a treasure sector. Trump t as my kind of trump play there. But so yeah the market was slipping this out and um I I believe the dnc just failed to read the room, didn't understand reality.

My speculation is that after biden had the uh, terrible debate with trump and this is an act I ve heard from someone in the kind of dnc circles might be up or might not be but IT kind of makes sense to me. They say, look, you can go out the software or the hard way the software is, you know, you have a successor step back. The hard way is twenty fifty amendment and the tony th amendment requires majority, the cabinet and certainly the VP.

Now when I came to that conversation, who are the alleged will run out room that could be a successor, they're going to say, well, who would replace biden? That conversation onna, come up before the rug, pull biden. And only two people would be coming Harris, or boot gig and come Harris, as a VP, be presiding over the cabinet.

And we'll a continuation of the electoral strategy of biden, in terms of the base that they are focusing on and people's or and D， E, I and all the rest. So I think that's what got to her. We are the lack of a process to have competitively field of candidates.

I talked to the VC in new york this morning, he said, and i'm not not a steaming and when we make them now, i'm just pointing out, he said the dnc put forth the only two people that could lose a danna trump, Hillary clinton and coal herr's. I mean, it's like trump has lots of negatives too, but he was, I think, the the approach of the campaign, a bad campaign manager of bad V, P, pick a leader that hasn't been trust tested in political battle and fAiling in to engage our social media. Choose and to go to sl instead of the olen pod or joe rogan uh and display uh dynamism the decision and and kind of show authenticity in person.

Trump s some policies that aren't realistic, like we replacing income tax with terrorists or deporting millions of people, are just not. But they're clear and people going to understand them and therefore they are authentic and they know what they're getting. And with canada, Harris, I still don't know, are the only things I know, my canada, I know that there's going to be attacked on and realized gains okay, I got that one. That one uh I think .

a lot of people .

who uh uh what else and israel goys is not clear, like, hey yeah the protesters, we hear you but israel, we got back okay, well, which one is IT? So I think that the D. N, C, really a fumble this in a significant way.

Uh, and uh anyway, so I I wrote a post last five thirty P. M. Here's the post modern for the dnc before any elections were called. And if you look at the electoral al data, you could see that this was going to be A A major traub Victory just based on turn net was all the public data as soon .

as the data that are coming in from florida and some of the even deeper read states, the blue states and the shift. I mean, these stats I have in the screen right now are like some of the crazy stats. I'm from jersey.

It's always been blue and always my entire life, it's been blue. Has you close? SHE only won jersey by four points. And these numbers are absolutely staggering.

When you when you look at them like these new york killing one by twelve points, I mean, it's onest ly kind of insane. I feel like there's something wrong here. So I kind of goes to what you're talking about.

right? Under problem. Yes, you understand every swiss day and the message was model that was hey, i'm the next generation candidate but also there's no daylight between me and bite and um so is that a continuation as a change? And then you say, well, i'm not joy by and is that a reference to like gender? Or what does that mean then? right? What does that mean?

What do you think? What do you think the democratic party should do?

Now I think a few things. One is the progressive wing Carry them over the edge. I think the D E I and the workers ff is not centre america.

I think americans are moroccans. They believe in competition. They also believe in rural law. Ah like there are legitimate criticisms of trump er on january six and instead I got a funny text from another VC message me this morning. Let me i'll read this out loud to you.

So it's a fictional conversation tween two, two democrats s done in twenty twenty one. Trump just only an interaction improve that he is an essential threat. Democracy, we cannot allow him to return to the office. Them, to great point, we have to stop that threat.

So let's govern hard left on D E, I culture and in immigration for the next four years, spend a trillion dollars and on stimulus and get inflation going, uh, and then do an undemocratic bin switch to a, uh, uh, D E I hs. There was, and I was, anyway, that is not competent now, I mean, I think I think he was failure to read the room, failure to understand the basic realities. If it's a repudiation, who is the popular vote?

How do you, how do you think they can recover that? Would what should they do to make next election somewhat more interesting?

Politicians love power, and politics are competitive. Look, the republican sense of immigration has kind of flip from the ages where they are now, right? So a slow on valley was pro blue before.

Now it's red. Yeah, there is the southern democrats in the sixties. During the civil rights era, they flipped or republican. So political parties are highly competitive if they will adjust their position.

And there's no dba about that h and they will feel more competitive candidates that are data tested come through primary process. But I think you're going to see less of this progressive wing that on culture and on policy isn't something the vast majority of americans can relate to or identify with. Just I think I think so you you will see competition of elections member after obama one, I think there are some common turn.

You'll never see republican get elected to get well, oh, that didn't happen, right? He just what the, you know right? The markets are dynamic and politicians are dynamic, and they will all, I mean, trump s republican, republican party service the market of free trade, right? So policies are just people who they will adjust. And I think the democrat get two of the center, which is good as the number of .

high profile democrats, including trump himself, that move to the republican party.

I think how you campaign changes, I think every candidate from hearing out, looking on the gel rogan show, that is going to be the new things. Not sixty minutes more. It's not cna. In fact, the most to do is you gotto be on your rogan, you gotto be on the old in part, and not recognizing the reality that contents consume via social media and shared socially investing. The social process, politics of social process.

comes back to the media. Discussion comes like media discussion in the business models.

And for IT, we just got a question hear that thing is interesting from from the audience saying why and anyone asking how buy them about twenty million more boats in twenty twenty, which is an argument.

I mean, another enough this you could be asking that question being another subtle spectrum politically, but it's been mostly being asked by by those on the left and that there is actually surprisingly to meet people claiming there may have been election fraud because otherwise you can't explain such a big gap under the answer. I think IT tires up exactly to a rumble saying before, which is come at Harris was not battle tested in the primaries by the park, by by the people. SHE was thorough, unlikeable for way too many people, even more than trump, which is remarkable because a very large number of people dislike trump.

So that's the point. She's just like a role. I think that's what happened.

Nobody wanted to vote her. You just like to run. I just don't think as many people like her. So you just more like in the middle.

like people have different this virtual form.

I don't I don't really get the same viral for for Harris. It's just that there's not the opposite, the adornment, the I mean, it's it's still box. My mind that people are like driving around every day with like a truck flag on the back of the pick up truck in new jersey and like go that stuff is a little weird me truck.

He's popular, has enthusiastic, obviously popular vote, right? Turnout was high. But his message gen. Was around deregulation, controlling inflation, ending wars, right? Very clear messaging.

And the democrat policy, again, only ones I heard there were very clear as taxis and raise uh taxes on and realized and father are thinking about americans is everyone hopes to one day be an entrepreneur and create wealth so that messaging doesn't really resonate and if you a low information voter, all your hair rs taxes go up. So friend of mine, he is a manager of a Bakery. He's a democratic a that won to vote.

Harris and I said, what about your employees? Like a or so employees, minimum wage, low income, low information voters, by the way, every single one of them trump. I think that is really.

this is what this is. Yeah, yes. And this comes down to the immigration question as well. The immigrants are not necessarily going to vote democrats. They want to get rich also.

yes. yeah. Look, I I agree. In another thing, I spoke to a buddy mine from indian descent and he doesn't relate to comment here.

I like identity politics. I don't think identity politics goes up the door. I personally would hope to, I hope that people can relate to one. Others are human being as an individual with the set of values and interest that you choose, that you can then turn for voluntary arrangement with other people. But I don't think that goes out the window.

But that is I think also we heard the dnc here IT is you know you're seeing shifts in every these demography groups going towards, uh, republicans but not by appealing to a different set of interest of like the regulation and control inflation, all the rests brennan butter issues as opposed to abstract policies like the chip sec, not time of the merits those policy and I think chip sacks actually waste the money and tells and need the money whatever. But um like the the chips act and the inflation reduction act, that doesn't land for people. The inflation still three percent, right?

But I didn't answer your question before. Do you ever answer on the what you think happened with the twenty million? Look like I heard there was going to be record turnout.

but the number seems to be low SHE just was not people we're not voting for her period. Wanted to to say something else on on there on the election, which is what I think a lot of people got wrong. Was this discussion that was that a very large percentage of amErica cares deeply and more than anything about abortion and and whole abortion issue use a very valid issue and and that would drive an incredible record turnout among women.

And and my argument was that maybe true and make sense. However, what is most important, this economy, because inflation has been wild and even doing in real terms of just by inflation, the wages and the income of actually, ironically, and narrative violation of of people on on of poor people, of people, little less people, actually they the wage increases have actually beauty inflation. Yeah, it's actually people people underbit are Better off.

However, they're not aware of IT because the masses tend to think in nominal terms. It's too difficult due to adjust everything by inflation. So they feel that everything went to shit and that's why they they wear for for trump, for change. The fed.

the fed may focus the P, C, but the C, P, I is what sets consumer expectations of inflation. And three point two for core. That's nowhere. They are acceptable.

But yeah, you are it's a delicious point. You raise that right? Like real incomes have gone up for the low, the low income.

I think part of IT is like, are you advocating for us? Are you advocating for them? And trump is very good at creating those polarities and leading into them as a politician. That's part of IT.

Yeah yeah yeah another another nari violation like to share is and and this is um this this argument is very proud democrat so i'm going to actually um for the record state that I am an exactly the opposite so i'm expressing an argument that goes against my position and interests is the following that the main reason we had we I mean in the us have such massive like insane record immigration, illegal immigration numbers accounting for almost fifty percent of all new jobs created in the last two years, which is absolutely insane.

It's not really about the minish controls in the bordered that mattered. That matters, definitely matters, but does not the main key. The the the the the key is not the main issue. The main issue is that the us. Is has been growing so strongly more than other countries, pushing wages up due to basically simple supply and the main baLance on the labor force.

So if you are an illegal or not a potential illegal, somebody, latin america, and you look up, and you here from your family, the things are so well up there, you figure out a way to cross. And and now that that that the job market has been going back in balLance, a legal negotiation should dramatically reduced even if nothing happens on the border. As the argument you guys can disagree, I would actually curious if you have thoughts on this.

I do not have complex loss on this. I'm not going to touch that up in topic.

It's a really interesting I know Alice, you nice work in a few months ago, the influx of immigration also helped to reduce labor inflation by the way. Number one number two where would actually right? Number two, soft um and reduced recession risk as well, right the GDP of product of two numbers labor, the labor productivity.

If the left and equations going up, then GDP is probably going up if people are productively employed and working, not not trying to make A A statement around gangs and colorado and drug and other stuff like this is complex topic, obviously, right. But one of the things that a lot of economies in trying to sort out is why was there no hard landing in october two, right? The yoka was inverted.

C. A, I was found a part being credit growth had come to a stance to, and one of interesting theories, well, look, you had to this massive influx of immigration as a as a policy lever, a longside fiscal spending and monetary policy ending that's legitimate if you have a million people coming in. Like two million people, three three million people coming in, and i'll say half them are gainfully employed to one point five million people at an income of times forty thousand dollars GDP making up a number, right? Somebody be both.

Somebody be low. You know that is billions of dollars, tens and tens of billions in stimulus. So it's a yeah, it's it's it's complicated at the very least, right?

A family comes clear in inside. But back in twenty two was we were not talking about this.

Well, what we don't know is what we don't know is what was the reasoning behind the relaxation of the immigration controls? You know, elon moscow stand, well, there are, come in and legalize them and then flip swing states to red states, right? That's one argument. Or is that was that on policy related or what what was that thinking? We don't know, but it's a super interesting question which ultimately came back to a hurt them at the end.

It's a question. And other countries are following as well, like based in europe as as we mentioned earlier. And in europe, the immigration issue, which has generally immigrate, immigrants have been welcomed with open arms on the whole M I mean, madrid and not go.

Our big post office, which is a gorgeous building downtown, had a big banner saying refugees welcome. But now the mood has shifted. In part of that is want to do with the economic environment. There just had many jobs to go around and we're teaching on the brink of recession. But to the political tone set by the united states does have repercussions around the world on such big issues such as borders or zon stuff.

Image red now with, or I might get that up, anti tourism like this, aren't there, isn't there .

much and far seller? We welcome tourists, everyone, to come as long as, as long as you are nice .

tourist gorgeous. Interest question be like, supposing the dams had kept tight borders, would the economy have had A A sluggish recovery so they would have lost anyway, right? So like we don't know the kind of fact that either like what was the best hand to play over time point.

Now you drop a trillion dollars stimulus. By the way, two came under trump. That last package came under the biden administration, which is not necessary.

Clearly, hindi twenty twenty. Had they not done that, would I ve got to lower inflation? Sure, right. But it's you know it's easy to quarter back looking backwards.

And then there's the demography issue, the demographic issue of people. You know the natural population is declining. You have to import .

the workforce, right? Most countries all want to be in in the united states shoes to be importing, right? China is using millions of their most talent of people to other countries, including the united.

Every year. They they want to flip that position with us. We're importing talent and capital from around the world.

The the differences, they were not selecting that talent through illegal process. That's the issue, of course. right. But was .

gonna say well, I i'd be very curious if you could share with as um as irish um any any views of your country that this is going to such a remarkable transformation in the last fifteen years, right? And I don't know that many people know about .

IT is IT is astonishing. A lot of that is to do with regulations, regulation driven boom, which is fairly rare these days, especially for europe, Normal europe having in the other direction, but make life friendly for large tech companies.

And because you are in the european union and mainly english speaking, you get the large american tech company is setting up shop, building smart cities, that kind of thing that drew the initial boom, but then you have the issue of rising property Prices, and you start to get the Young people annoyed because they can no longer ford to live in the cities. And then you also have the immigration problem, because the immigrants are attracted by the booming economy. And so ireland is not quite in this happier place as IT today, as IT was.

I have to carve out that with thing. I've actually, I am irish, but i've never actually lived there, growing up in a lot of other places, but do the more state of mind kind of thing. However, I do have family that lives there.

And well, they are fine. They're happy they can afford an apartment with, for their, for the baby, other Young people. This is, we are resting unrest, any riots on the streets of dublin that's unheard of.

right? Let um let's go on to some of the house and senate stuff. This is from stand with crypto s website. Uh basically they have we got two hundred and fifty seven procreate though, uh representatives and seventeen pro script and the members were like this thing and I just get real some steps. So we're at two hundred fifty three accounting, uh two hundred fifty seven and counting.

I guess so much sure how high the number can go by partin pro gript of majority in the house with dozens of races left to all. Um there are zero new antigay pto candidates that we're elected last night. Eight eight of the newly elected senators are procrit po healing from both sides of the ie and seventy five percent three hundred fifty five procreative candidates running for federal office.

Everybody one. And there's still more to go. So I mean, this is then and astounding success for fair shakes and crop to anybody who was putting money into these elections for crypto and onest ly. I think this is one of the biggest mistakes.

I mean, maybe this is bias from all of us on this, on this, on this call were obviously about crypt to, but one of the biggest like own goals in the entire election over the last three years, we will say maybe four is a visit with more than her anti cypher to army. The way, yes, you see, went about this whole thing. I mean, it's just aggravated people with a lot of money, a lot of influence that you saw this as just petty and stupid and are in there.

They are real. They're ripping the rewards of what they did. So we didn't really talk about this, but I think crypto o and anti tack and anti growth is is one of things that really came back to hurt you.

I thought as heroes like mainstream media has underestimated amount wealth that exists in the digital as an industry, they assume that are something like draft kings. And look, this script is about speculation. I know to deny that.

Yes, kay, that's about sure now. But they've unrested mated the amount of wealth and influence that this category has. My business, limited wealth is premised on that. By the way, we're still the only wealth manager in town. great.

But also it's reading the room. Like you said earlier around, they did not read the room. What do you gain by being anti innovation? Crypto, especially those all of us with good faith and critter, we're happy to follow rules. Just tell us what they are. The anti immigration army rAiling against progress does nothing but transmit a bonker mentality, which generally doesn't win votes when things are going well.

IT was IT was a hand played after the collapse of F, T, X and S, P, F, where they have washed their sins away from taking money .

in from correct.

and they are run in the opposite direction and over extend to make up for that was really like, remember the the dam were actually and magazine waters, who is the header of houses? Atra committee at that time shared Brown, who was voted out. right? So, you know, money does influence politics.

And IT was an interesting richy. They made the wrong bet. They thought that cypher, or was a dead as an industry in the wake of F, T, X. That was the the bet they made. And was, he was a wrong .

bet I say I thing wrong, but they made IT was, I mean, the bite and admin completely shafted elon moss with his electric vehicles. They had an electric vehicle and they didn't even include all muster anyone from tesla. And then and I feel like that was just another own goal, like there was no reason for that. And I feel like I don't know how much is actually contributed to to biden going I mean, to biden to must going all in on. But I that's that's another own goal that the dance there's a lot of own goals here.

really. What if elan must hadn't bought twitter? What impact might have had on the election? I don't to be.

Besides, I would have been censored. But that because he still had the big account on the region, uh, something that people debate that maybe he took the arguments to increase the presence .

of these streets and realized.

yes, yes, but yeah but does any does anyone mind remain? Frankly.

I think I with James on IT, of course .

I think of course he did this report. No way he's even .

talked about that on the joe rogan show. He was like, I, well, I used to do this. I am in turn with the alligator. M, but again, is that worse? Is not .

that bad and is not training released? But yeah, I mean, would IT, would IT have been Better? As in a as as alex correctly, you know, very study points out, would IT had a been a friend not to not have bought IT and instead have been kicked .

off to increase on a power? He weels right. yeah. In x. And the question is, do you want your guy or gal to run x if they're on your side? And you know, the reason why we created A A republic here in united states is to have rule of law so that, uh, the laws applied, you know, is is still interesting question.

Are you think about all of this, right? Like how do you like here's a question for you. Must did he elevator promote tweet that were protruding mph? I don't know, some just seen. So if he believes that this will be the last election, if if he goes, if he goes towards the end center, if he believes that wouldn't be rational and he's increase ly rational person to put a dumb on the scale and try to in flap, I just, what do you not right?

I strongly think that without elon doing what he did, he literally went all out. He risked everything.

I think.

Is IT literally risked .

everything .

without him. Um we won't have one. We mean prominent debts.

Talking about the fact that we need to like to stopped once this election is over in the and Harris winds. They need to like cut the contracts with with music company and like all these other things out there, which is just insane on its face. But like the fact that like he yeah I mean, he did what he always does.

He tends to just lean into one. He's put a lot of time, money and effort into pa and IT was a pretty slim margin, but not as slim as as the posters were suggesting. And who knows how much impact you actually add, but the the answer is, is definitely the impact is not zero .

as far as i'd concerned. The broth of affected people that were upset, I mean, private equity, you on the cup of a lot of people were upset. The almost were upset.

The omas, the almost the long ARM of got there were bill boards. There were bill board, but the only based one right and one hundred thousand and voted, and always the margin of Victory pensylvania. I think I went to bed at ten thirty last night. I thought you, the campaign have .

been concluded was .

like like two hundred people. Maybe interest question around mask was that the alternative history itself is kind of fun. But look, I think I knew is a broad base of people that were just very disconnected with the current administration and they .

wanted to change. I think there's a lot of people out there and a lot of jobs. Yes, the average person was Better, but there were plenty of people whose incomes did not rise above the level inflation or at the rate of inflation.

And even they they were just upset with what biden did the becoming. Even if IT wasn't by involved, even we take a back and you could argue that some of IT, like a lot of IT, probably wasn't completely his fault. Uh, he did a lot of I would argue he did a lot of good things. But IT doesn't matter if you're this effect, like you're just not going to be happy. If you look like when people try to predict the elections, one of the things they look at is like inflation.

How of people felt about the economy? And like if they felt crappy about the economy, even if, like you are seeing where the gold last thing IT doesn't really matter if he actually created the golden lox economy of people felt like they were not their dollar wasn't going further yet to ata and many people IT actually wasn't. Those people are probably look at to work for you again.

Yes, agree for yeah first of like on the vive, the vive matters and the leadership sets the vibe, sets the tone, right? You think I wasn't wrong when reagans run for office? But no, i've always been told about this Sunny, shining city on the house speech, like legende speech about delivering optimism.

And what he saw after the Victory is he saw, at least I saw, on X, R videos and rails of of rockets going up to the space and, oh, partnership and celebrating founders and innovation. And that's a story that attracts people, a dynamic story, as opposed to a story around identity politics. You know, that sub thirty crowd isn't nothing that student learn.

That relief program IT pissed off people that actually vote. People don't forget that people sixty plus, they they vote the most, and under under thirty only like that. Only ten percent of the elector and a half of them I only voted for trump. And they also don't like the di stuff, by the way.

either yeah, that is already the big the big winner today really was democracy. And I say this as a non american, and I don't know how alex feels about this also, but we saw democracy at work. And IT was messy and IT was loud, but IT works that this affected people were able to vote for change. And we got the result much faster then we expected, said that I thought that was pretty awesome.

Yeah, it's a hundred percent of thing is a very, very strong point because precisely like like a very large chunk of of this country. Thanks the opposite way, that this is A A Victory of a non democratic party. But this is exactly the opposite.

This is the Victory of someone who, with a party and an a system behind, he went through the democratic process. And they fought on one side, won fairly. And yeah both sides had a lot lies, one more than the other.

But whatever that is subjective, which one was IT? But it's also the politics is yeah people living on camera for boats, right? unfortunately.

So let's let's we have two more topics before we wrap up here. I agree with pretty. I wish we disagreed more. The only thing we disagreed on us, the fact that must must put this figure on the world first city.

well, we have we have A A good point. Actually, the macro we going to disagree on the macro, I think.

yes, about to say we have to touch to touch on what's coming tomorrow.

Let's talk about real quick. Let's keep this part short. The the fact that and i'll be the first one to say I was on your saying, I thought that the party market eyes were probably leaning a little bit further right than the actual, like you know, odds are.

So we talked on this earlier, that french whale, which was all over every major news outlet, IT was over. He was all over twitter, twitter before we, he got to the major news outlets, and people are saying he is india the due just pulled IT in forty eight million dollars on his death. I mean, he bet on truck with the popular, which honestly, I, I, I, I personally, I thought trumps was going to win.

Uh, I would not I I would have taken pretty damn good eyes that he was going to lose the popular vote. So i'll take the l on that when they figured that out because I can touch the stuff. Um but yeah I guess you guys have any thoughts on like poly market in general, betting odds.

I mean, if you look at this, if you look at like from ten days ago even and you look at what poly market and country and all these things we're saying, which states we're going to go, which way. I mean, the map is basically what the map is come out to be. And granted, I think arizona, the body is still haven't beneficially call, but IT looks like it's going to be trump.

I mean, if that happens and you look at what the odds wear on Polly market, IT lies up exactly and IT just shows, I guess, kind of like efficient markets a little bit IT shows um you know when people are putting millions millions of dollars at work and might mean a little bit more necessarily than than pollster. So yeah I guess quickly, what are your guys thoughts on you polling verses betting markets and public market in this french? Well.

I can dive into that because i've been talking quite a lot about that recently. And one thing we tend to overlook is that party market is not a poll. I mean, when we all know this, but it's important because they're very different questions.

Public market asks you, who do you who do you think we will win, not who are you going to vote for? And that's not the same question an at all, Polly. Market is a probability platform, a betting platform that many other terms we should maybe use rather than the prediction platform. Where is the polls are more about on the ground asking people what their intentions are, not not what they think the result will be very different. But Polly, market bears are going to be passing the polls to place their but so it's a cause and effect issue.

I think two observations. One is polls or form of marketing. They're not truth seeking.

You hire pollsters to deliver certain result to influencing perception. A commoner, herr's was at her home last night. Not on the front line because I believe that they saw the conclusion coming.

Anyone I look at the data saw this coming. I had a post again on my twitter fy five thirty P M. Last night writing the post modem of the harsh campaign just on the public data.

So that's one polls aren't legitimate. Number two is a py market is our new source of truth. It's a market driven truth.

It's an oracle that we can look to a gott right IT adjust in real time based on the data. Is there a slight bias? Maybe is there evidence to that? Not really. But I get, I get your theodore point point though.

because I was even shot like the IT IT turned out even strongly. I'll take the l and that I IT probably wasn't leaning right in the way I thought I was.

But we need more betting. We need more event prediction markets to understand truth.

more credit.

more liquidity. Because you know if you you have to pay for your view, you have to create account order to have a point of view, you're going to place a wager and you're motivated to be correct. And those are not the incentive that you have in traditional media. yes.

And IT makes IT easier for us, the mainstream, to see what the experts they are doing the research are thinking.

also makes IT is makes IT easy for people to for people like everybody, including ourselves, to put a number i'm visualized what's going on. What am I trying to say with this? Is that poly market, even though he was going against predicted, for example, for for large chunks amounts of time, IT wasn't lined with, say, other trump .

trade assets .

like the long bones. Um so there was a big move on on the on bonds on the ten year and the thirty year they were aligned.

That was not for mark win, right?

Yours are going up and down going up yeah what you were saying before yeah, yeah, yeah so it's it's so it's not that I was in isolation. You could you could say actually the bond market was also like saying sixty percent from probability, right? Or fifty eight, whatever.

We can help you about the same percentage. But is not just Polly market. There was financial assets. And if you are if you are very well informed trader who who plays a who arbi traders who could even be arby trudging what the implied probabilities based on the ten year note or a three year bond and the and Polly market and and basically put IT in line to where I should be.

right? And the other thought I went to says, in our last part, right before, actually, I had changed my, my, my view on one of your recordings on elections. I I decided to put a lot of time into study polls.

And if polls had somehow adjusted for the anti trump bias that had expressed in two and sixteen and twenty twenty, but not so in the mid terms of twenty thousand and twenty and twenty two, and I didn't see anything, was just just blood, blood, blood. Is like nothing really fundamentally has changed. So why would we not be expecting again, a trump anti trump as basically shows up in in in the count as polls under representing the real trap vote, which is what happened .

yeah and they did say they're going to change, didn't they?

Well, what i've seen, thirty seven percent of pulsars change the way they did. Thanks from twenty twenty.

Yes, not lunch.

Maybe maybe we'll see up the different in twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. Let's go on the macro. So for a while, the market has been pricing twenty five bibs cut tomorrow and another twenty five bibs cut in december.

I'll just say my I still think we're going to cut twenty five tomorrow. I think december is in serious jeering, and we will see there's a lot of numbers coming out. I guess i'm i'm not a matter guy specifically. So let's go to you hours like what your what are your thoughts on what's gonna en with the fed cuts? The other .

one see twenty twenty five tomorrow, two and five tomorrow. Um likely nothing on on december as you say. That being said, it's they're both relevant yeah right now it's all about the elections worrying about what powers is going to say I think is going to be a lot of very interesting and even fun uh, listening to power right after elections to see he changes his soon. But IT won't really matter because this is so big so for a little very long period time forget about the phone. Cy, that's the way I I see IT.

Now we must be disagree eed on this though, but I can't disagree the on that. Agree, I don't think I don't think they should cut twenty five tomorrow. There is no indications the economy that the slowdown is warranting that kind of a move, but I don't think they cannot do so given the trend of the market signals, the feed is not going to want to deliver .

a surprise an agreement is no need for a record trumps l election is equivalent to another to call a hundred dips and rackets because of be not on effect the animal spirit small business enthusiasm, look at a Better you daughter down at the N, F, I, V. Small business survey comes out next month, then it'll be going up. People are gonna going.

This is why the whole talk of the so called neutral rate that academics talk about is so misguided. There was a substantial easy that just took place today, and that was reflected in financial markets. We had a repricing in all these resits build cut to Marks.

They want to surprise the markets they shouldn't cut in december, but lets see what they say. What I mean to be a flying in the world. Now think, I mean, I mean, now I would, I would be so delicious just the first as the results are coming .

in while there in the meeting that we you're right.

H, yeah. I mean, you you can make the support. Kevin walsh will likely be the next efficency chair. Markets views trump as inflationary drug meller put a big short bounds trade after fifty this cut in september when the three, nine percent actually that think goes correct, you know, think that markets don't get is that Kevin worse will be more hawkish and markets won't care about IT anyway for months. Markets seem care about the election till monday, by the way, then markets said, who's going to win and then things are repricing monday, tuesday and then wednesday.

Yeah I mean, I I mean, i'm not an expert during this stuff, but a lot of things that truly talking about our likely to be rather inflationary. I mean, he's really going to put on I mean, I don't actually think you'll put on a sixty percent tarrar, but he that might be just a starting point for negotiations, who know is what he's actually going to do.

But like his cap is trying to argue the terrace ARM inflationary, which is like a my you just look at the data that's that's a bunk argument that is just not I mean, yes, maybe could help like middle class americans who need these factories of things and like stuff like that. yes. But IT is undoubtedly those are inflationary actions and the right cuts he's talking about doing for for hire income earners and things like that about the wealthy individuals, likely inflationary at least for um asset Prices.

There's a lot of things that he agree with you around. It's likely to be inflationary. I don't love it's I don't know. I say to go to a hundred basis points um of cuts.

It's it's fifty.

I'm on the I I agree from its up by a hundred. And the bond market is telling us that I mean, we have the ten year at the high point in a year and the bond the ten year yields started heading up the day of the fifty basis point cut. The bond market started sending us messages back then. And the question is how long before the start market starts listening? I think we still got a while to go before the start mark starts listings, but that time will come.

You know, that's actually the only the only thing i'm fading here that I V I started buying long bones.

It's an international idea. I like that idea. Like there will be incremental real economic growth.

You know what i'm saying, it's more inflation. I don't mean that in a dismissive way. It's part of what you get with higher real economic growth too, right? You can see after Price inflation too.

even nominal growth can drive stock Prices.

yes.

So on these, the thing is very important at at least like here, I think we're gona disagree. But the the tarrifs, which are I think would be an abomination if you sixty percent of china or anywhere in near close to to that will be very much for the us, for growth, for inflation, for everybody. He's not gona do IT he's not gonna do IT something happened to his stain IT didn't happen rarely IT happened a little bit.

And on the way I see is this is the trump style. He is very aggressive with words to try to avoid shit going down. So it's it's negotiate exactly it's it's negotiations style le and is very effective.

So that's why I don't see problems on tarriff and I don't see such a big inflationary problem in in the us coming from trump. I think actually we ago and remain on this inflation or environment. And i'm seeing a lot of people, especially in europe, 是 mely concerned about trump antis， both on on research I read and actually you can see on the stock market like europe is now right.

So like traders are as concerned as analysts. And I think that's the wrong trade. Same thing china china is downed trump overnight. Um china's coming out with stimulus um finally supposedly announcing their numbers in two days. Um I think it's a fate I think is these fears are are are you gonna pass and in fact the opposite is gona happen. The trump is going to china to do more uh which would be a good for uh for chinese markets in and .

really to stimulus stimulus .

um interesting alex and .

remote and James at your opinions plea of how high do you think the continue yields going to reach before IT turns?

I am literally not .

allowed .

to answer that .

of like what do you think I I don't have a numbers.

fortunately, but I think not much longer. That's why I started buying with alex .

to I think you are gold broke today, by the way. Yeah so I call that I like events change dynamics. We had an event. So if you're going to change the trajectory of the ten year today would make the most sense. But if you're wrong, then it's probably five percent, which was the peak in october twenty .

six of last year. Yeah, I just had to think about gold has gone. Gold has gone from twenty seven and fifty, twenty six hundred. So you can .

you can afford a correction and still have A A really, really good year of looking that up the other day. It's very, very rare. I don't even remember last time this has happened. If IT has happened where you have gold and stocks going up in the same year.

that's great point and goals been beating the mp like the last two years, by the way.

which is extraordinary.

I don't think that can continue that, but either I agree, I don't think I think the terf war shoes are probably overblown. It's a tactic negotiation. Elon must work the terrace y needs for ebs because he really needs them. Like china, E, S, are really competitive on the luxury and entry level. So yeah, china, china will have no choice but yeah spend to get the economy .

out of the gutter .

and the currencies and oil.

And yes, exactly you're going .

to say before when I cut you off, talk you about the gold Price.

Oh um no, I am good. I mean, I can not very exciting is just mainly strong dollar. I wouldn't be fading right now. The donor I would give IT like bones consider now, at least as I am doing, the dollar is given a few weeks on anyhow, trading daughter is so boring, who cares? So, so close to turning.

I think the downed a ten year probably turn around the same time.

IT makes sense. No, no.

And that would be another tAilin for bitcoin and theory and .

international stocks too.

I I think as well yeah I mean, how much longer can this eight percentage point out performance versus international markets? Can large cap U S. Stocks go on?

I mean, at some point there has been reversion to me. I just don't know what that catalist is. Will see I guess at some point, but um I think that's IT. Is there anybody anybody have any other micro comments? Are we ready to rap up?

Five session? Five session is over. Rocks is here. Goldy.

ocs is here. I love that rome, you going .

na get t shirts made.

Now, just been great talking to you. Seriously, I learned so much from all of you, and it's just exciting to be able to talk about this at this particular point in history where .

were privileged .

to be able .

to witness what is unfolding.

right?

ROM, no, all. Thank you very much for joining us. We missed our coin kor joe. He had an event with his clients, so apparently clients come first over the bitch of bits.

Pod, you knew, yeah, the people who write your chips in the figure of matter speaking actually matter. Alright guys, that's joining us for the empty of the hits. And bfs will be back and to we discuss more about how the world to put to a macrocosm until then.