GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters
Top Traders Unplugged
Shownotes Transcript
Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.
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**Episode TimeStamps: **
**02:42 - **Introduction to Gregory Peters
**05:15 - **What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?
**06:28 - **Peters' perspective on the state of global macro
**11:44 - **Peters' response to the inverted curve
**15:30 - **Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?
**19:36 - **Japanese investors in a tough spot
**22:11 - **Financial repression and domestic bias
**24:11 - **The yield is destiny
**27:28 - **What range are we operating in?
**28:43 - **Will inflation be stickier than we expect?
**33:03 - **The impact of a changing globalization
**35:42 - **Analyzing the poor productivity numbers
**38:05 - **The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy
**42:54 - **China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio
**44:27 - **Opportunities in emerging markets
**46:47 - **Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function
**49:13 - **How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?
**51:29 - **The possibilities of recession
**56:19 - **Advice for other investors
**57:59 - **Thanks for listening
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