cover of episode The most important “most important election”?

The most important “most important election”?

2024/11/5
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Jeffrey Engel
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Julia Azari
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多个发言人:许多集会演讲者和新闻报道都将当前选举描述为‘我们一生中最重要的一次’,甚至认为是美国历史上最重要的选举。 Sean Rameswaram:主持人指出,几乎每次选举都会有人声称这是‘我们一生中最重要的一次选举’。 Jeffrey Engel:历史学家Jeffrey Engel认为,这种说法并非首次出现,许多人都宣称当前选举为‘一生中最重要的一次’,但并非每次选举都具有同等重要性。他认为候选人之间观点差异的大小决定了选举的重要性,并以1932年大选为例,说明了当时经济大萧条背景下候选人政策差异巨大,使得该次选举尤为重要。他还回顾了美国历史上其他几次关键选举,例如南北战争时期和建国初期,这些选举都关系到国家的存亡。 Julia Azari:政治学家Julia Azari认为,哈里斯的竞选论调强调民主面临威胁,而特朗普的竞选论调则强调国家认同面临威胁。她认为,特朗普执政期间,和平权力交接未能实现,这从根本上改变了美国的民主制度。她还指出,选民投票率与候选人之间的差异以及这种差异的重要性有关,近年来,随着选举变得更加关键,选民的参与度也提高了。她认为,哈里斯当选总统不太可能从根本上改变美国的民主制度,而候选人将每次选举都描述为‘一生中最重要的一次’,这种说法令人疲惫。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why do people often claim that every election is the most important one in their lifetime?

Candidates and advertisers use this rhetoric to motivate voters and increase engagement, but it's also a reflection of the increasing polarization and existential stakes perceived in modern elections.

How does the ideological distance between candidates influence the perceived importance of an election?

A wider ideological gap between candidates can make an election feel more critical, as it represents a stark choice between fundamentally different visions for the country.

What historical election does the 2024 election resemble in terms of its perceived importance?

The 2024 election is compared to the 1932 election during the Great Depression, where the ideological distance between candidates and the existential threat to democracy were similarly high.

Why was the 1932 election considered so pivotal in American history?

The 1932 election was crucial because it marked a shift in government intervention during the Great Depression, with Franklin Roosevelt promising more action and a break from Herbert Hoover's policies.

How did the 1860 election contribute to the Civil War?

The 1860 election saw Southern Democrats threatening secession if they lost, which they did when Abraham Lincoln won, leading to the Civil War.

What role did the 1800 election play in American democracy?

The 1800 election, where Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams, established the precedent for a peaceful transfer of power between opposing parties, a cornerstone of American democracy.

How does historical perspective provide comfort or anxiety about current political tensions?

History shows that the U.S. has faced existential crises before and survived, but it also underscores the responsibility of citizens to work hard to maintain democracy, which can be both reassuring and daunting.

Why might the argument that this is the most important election ever be effective in increasing voter turnout?

Highlighting the significant differences between candidates and the existential stakes can motivate voters who perceive the election as a critical choice, thereby increasing turnout.

Did Donald Trump's presidency fundamentally alter American democracy?

Yes, Trump's presidency saw a failure in the peaceful transfer of power and significant legal challenges to electoral processes, which are core aspects of democracy.

How might Kamala Harris's presidency differ from Trump's in terms of policy and governance?

Harris is expected to govern more similarly to Obama and Biden, reflecting a leftward shift in the Democratic Party but not fundamentally altering American democracy in the way Trump's presidency did.

Chapters
The episode begins by questioning the frequent claim that each election is the most important of our lifetime, setting the stage for a historical analysis.
  • Every election cycle, candidates claim it's the most important.
  • This narrative is not new; it was also true four years ago and eight years ago.

Shownotes Transcript

It seems as though every election is “the most important election of our lifetime." Historian Jeffrey Engel and political scientist Julia Azari assess whether this is really the one.

This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Kristinsdottir, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.

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A screen shows "Nov. 5 - the most important day in the history of our country" at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Tempe, Arizona. Photo by REBECCA NOBLE/AFP via Getty Images.

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