cover of episode Pin the fail on the donkey

Pin the fail on the donkey

2024/11/7
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Today, Explained

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Bernie Sanders
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Eric Levitz
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Jeff Weaver
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Kamala Harris的支持者们认为,民主党失利的原因是多方面的,包括特朗普的受欢迎程度、国际局势以及拜登总统的不足。他们认为民主党需要改进选民参与度、明确政策立场,并提升自身形象。 Eric Levitz认为,民主党在2024年美国中期选举中全面失利,这既有短期因素(如通货膨胀、拜登的沟通能力、选举周期)的影响,也有长期因素(选民基础流失)的影响。他分析了民主党支持率下降的具体人群,并提出了乐观的(短期因素)和悲观的(长期结构性问题)两种预测。 Jeff Weaver认为,民主党需要回归经济民粹主义的根源,重新审视其在社会和文化问题上的立场。他批评了民主党对通货膨胀的回应,以及缺乏有效的反击叙事。他认为,民主党需要引入新的声音,使党内决策更加民主化,并需要更多像伯尼·桑德斯这样的经济民粹主义者。 Bernie Sanders认为,民主党忽视了工薪阶层,导致工薪阶层放弃了民主党。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Democrats lose substantial support among non-college-educated, Black, and Latino voters in the 2024 election?

Democrats saw significant declines in support from non-college-educated, Black, and Latino voters, which were crucial for their electoral success. This shift was partly due to economic factors like inflation and a perceived lack of clear, populist messaging from the Democratic Party.

What are the optimistic factors for the Democratic Party's future after the 2024 election losses?

The optimistic view includes global trends where ruling parties faced backlash due to inflation, the temporary nature of Joe Biden's rhetorical incompetence, and the potential for backlash against Donald Trump's future policies, which could benefit Democrats in 2028.

What are the pessimistic factors for the Democratic Party's future after the 2024 election losses?

The pessimistic view highlights ongoing demographic trends showing Democrats losing ground with non-college-educated and non-white voters, suggesting deeper, harder-to-fix issues. Additionally, a future Republican nominee not as offensive as Trump could regain support from college-educated voters while maintaining gains with conservative-leaning non-white voters.

What does Jeff Weaver suggest as the main issues with the Democratic Party's relationship with voters?

Jeff Weaver identifies the Democratic Party's abandonment of economic populism since the New Deal era, particularly under Bill Clinton's policies like NAFTA and welfare reform, as a major issue. He also criticizes the party's shift towards neoliberal policies and a lack of clear, counterbalancing narratives against corporate elites.

How does Jeff Weaver propose the Democratic Party should re-engage with disillusioned voters?

Weaver suggests retooling the party's agenda and messaging to focus more on economically populist issues and against corporate elites. He also advocates for democratizing the party to bring in new voices and ensure that decisions are made by those in touch with the electorate, not just insiders in Washington, D.C.

Chapters
Democrats faced significant losses across the board, including the presidency, Senate, and potentially the House. Key issues included poor voter turnout, particularly among male voters, and substantial declines in support from non-college-educated, Black, and Latino voters.
  • Democrats lost substantial support among non-college-educated, Black, and Latino voters.
  • Biden's margins with these groups were significantly higher in 2020 compared to Harris in 2024.
  • The party's messaging and engagement strategies were identified as major factors contributing to the losses.

Shownotes Transcript

Democrats lost big on Election Day: the presidency, the Senate, and maybe the House too. Vox's Eric Levitz explains what went wrong, and political strategist Jeff Weaver imagines what comes next for the party.

This episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Amanda Lewellyn, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Rob Byers, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram and Noel King.

Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)

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Attendees during Vice President Kamala Harris' concession speech at Howard University in Washington, DC. Photo by Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

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