Arab American voters in Michigan are primarily disappointed with the Democratic Party's handling of the war in Gaza and the conflict in Lebanon. This dissatisfaction could lead them to vote for alternatives, including Donald Trump or third-party candidates like Jill Stein.
The Arab American voting bloc in Michigan could be pivotal, potentially swaying the state's outcome by up to 100,000 votes. This is significant given that the state's elections have been decided by margins as small as 10,000 votes in recent years.
The Harris campaign has made some overtures to Arab American voters, including having an Arab American contingent at the DNC and expressing support for Palestinian rights. However, the absence of a Palestinian speaker at the DNC was a significant disappointment.
Some Arab American voters might consider voting for Trump due to his campaign's efforts to court the community, including bringing Arab American and Muslim leaders on stage to express support. This contrasts with the Harris campaign's perceived lack of focus on this demographic.
The dissatisfaction of Arab American voters could lead to a significant shift in votes away from the Democratic candidate, potentially affecting key swing states like Michigan. This could result in a closer election or even a Trump victory in states that were previously leaning Democratic.
Jill Stein appeals to Arab American voters by positioning herself as the only anti-genocide, anti-war candidate on the ballot. She has actively visited Michigan, attended Arab American functions, and embraced the community, making her a strong alternative for those disillusioned with the major parties.
Polling errors could lead to a significant miscalculation of voter preferences, potentially resulting in a landslide victory for either candidate that is not accurately reflected in pre-election polls. This uncertainty underscores the difficulty in predicting close elections.
The key battleground state of Michigan could be decided by Arab American voters disappointed with Democrats' handling of the war in Gaza. Detroit Free Press opinion editor Khalil AlHajal and Michigan State University political scientist Matt Grossmann explain the stakes.
This episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King.
Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast)
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Buttons being handed out during early voting in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP via Getty Images.
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