🚨Crypto Bull Run! Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Cardano, XRP, & Memecoin Analysis!
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Welcome into the thinking crypto o podcast on your host, tony Edward, and my guest today is brian. From sentiment and folks, we are going to talk about the metrics around big coin, doge coin, cardono, mean coins and much more because the markets are ripping. Bring good to see you how you feeling about these pumps.

Yeah good to see you as well. I mean, it's obviously amazing to see the crypto is finally uh, as many put IT seeing its potential. Um it's been a long year of you know sudden pumps followed by months of shopping and let downs uh even though were up significantly and we were even up significantly you know before this pump to nine D K ah IT felt as though we kind of had that sudden surge in march and everyone who missed out on IT has been disappointed all year and then finally mid october came around and over the last four rish weeks or so we've just been ripping like it's ID twenty seventeen again so are very exciting to say the least.

Yeah I mean, a big coin has not given me a lot of sleep over the past few days in a good way. Yeah.

lack of sleep.

yeah. So you know what? Let's start with big coin. Let's take a look at some metrics, what you're seeing overall and and then we can go into all coins and much more totally.

Yeah, come back to that screener and give some context. But to, uh, kick things off, bitcoin is, as always, kind of leading the charge and its pumps have kind of come in three to four waves over the past week or two since we last spoke. And uh generally after those waves we see old coins d couple obviously doge coin card down hour or a few old coins that have been super stars during that stretch and we'll cover them during this call.

But uh, bitcoin itself, uh did touch I D K very briefly uh on coin base right around there on other exchanges as well. Uh, transaction volume has been up, but maybe not as significant as you would think. You can see the big jump here in late october where IT was getting about twenty nine point five billion dollars in transaction volume entire day.

And then november fifth, IT got up to thirty four point six billion and refreshing just for the last few days, thirty three and thirty one billion, respectively. So yeah, it's high. But we're not seeing crazy y Spikes, which is actually a good thing in my opinion.

Uh, usually when there's big transaction volume Spikes that can indicate a Price reversal is coming. So you see that you know minor red candle is showing up over the past twelve hours. It's not being supported with a huge uh, transaction volume Spike indicating A A reversal maybe rider around the corner, daily active addresses kind of around the same thing.

We did see uh, quite a few unique addresses interacting on the network compared to usual. So that's generally a good thing. We want to see more and more unique addresses and unique tokens, which is what the circulation metric represents, just rising on every network.

Uh, so it's kind of especially on the active outside looking pretty good circulation, not that much special. So um you know there probably is a little bit increased watch trading going on, which is not going to show up in circulation, uh, but IT does show up in transaction volume. So that's interesting.

But this is probably what i'm looking at the most right now. Outside of whale activity, which will get to thirty day, average returns are at about plus seventeen and a half percent, generally anything above about fifteen ish. This is you know an arbitrary number, admittedly dly, but something we've kind of used as a rule of damot sentiment.

Anything above that tends to be a bit of a danger zone. You can see IT crossed above fifteen percent a yesterday. So this was roughly twenty four hours ago when we were crossing ninety, crossing two ninety, I should say, and IT then retraced a little bit.

But we're still seeing that we're in a bit of a dangerous zone right now. So I would like to see the average returns of any address active in the past thirty or three sixty five days drop down to this middle range here, which would indicate we can still kind of grow a healthy pace. But remember crypto still as some game.

So um we want to see some people buying at the very, very top. Maybe there were some addresses, i'm sure there are were that bought right around, you know the eighty eight k and ninety k range who are actually down just slightly already. I believe there are not there are people who are down money, uh, despite this crazy run that we've been on.

And that's needed in order for us to continue to pump. So i'll start there for a minute. But yeah, what do you think on, on all of that so far?

Yeah, this absolutely makes sense. And it's some of the things I highlighted in my newsletter yesterday as well as the podcast that, uh, a cool down is needed because um a continued move like this is not sustainable. And to your point of highly the metrics here, uh, you need some sort of cool off, right? And h it's healthy to build support levels.

Yeah hundred percent. I it's you know there is always a cool off and and the people who have been around crypto for a long time obviously are are waiting for IT because it's inevitable that we have some sort of draw down. And this is probably the biggest evidence that we're going to see one.

But IT doesn't mean we're going to just drop back down to seven D K. And I think sometimes people try to be too precise and too cute and clever with their profit taking. Based on the previous bull cycles we've seen in bitcoin history, what I would I would say is most likely uh, would be a minor draw down.

I'm not going to give you a Price prediction on you know what time to sell now versus went to buy back in at x Price. It's impossible for anyone to predict unless you're soshi in your controlling the markets. Um but you know there's usually somewhere between a three to five percent pull back when things go up this rapidly at minimum.

Um but the timing may not be. Now that's the tRicky part. You can go above ninety k and maybe have one more tears at going all the way to a hundred before we see that pull back. Uh, but again, when you're looking for a reference to what is a high verses, what is a low at any given time, you know it's much easier to look at these M V R V S than to just look at like you know the past ten years of Prices and be like, oh, that must be a high and that must be a low, right? It's you need to be looking at the context, which is why we have the M V R V as a perfect reference .

oh absolutely. So what what are the whales doing because you know that's been a key reference points that we've been looking at for months. And IT really tells the story, right? We can't really look at retail necessarily. But the whales, you know they control a lot of the market. Um what are they going up to?

Yeah one hundred percent. And that's kind of why i'm still pretty optimistic despite this crazy run we've been on and we have seen if I can get this access correct area, we didn't want you to cut off the screen. So they've been increasing their accumulation significantly.

They were about sixteen point nine million exactly thirty days ago in terms of the amount of B, T, C, held by ten plus B T, C wallets. Now they're at sixteen point two four million in one month. They've added forty five thousand, two hundred seventy and a half bitcoin to their wallets, uh, which is one of the the most toward places we've seen over a one month stretch in five years, if not longer.

So the differences between now and five years ago, it's a lot of harder to to buy forty five thousand a bitcoin, right, because the Price is so much higher than I used to be. So this is significant. And we were talking before the call, tony IT seems as though there the plan, you know in a lot of the whales and key stakeholders may have a target Price. And that target Price has not hit yet because they're not going anywhere. They've just continue to increase their accumulation rate throughout this past week, in particular, as Prices have run off the page.

Wow yeah and oversee the micro s are lining to that because a dousa, a procrit du president is coming to office. There is talks of a strategic bitcoin reserve bill that could be passed. But then also you see on the macro that the stock market, I has been ripped as well, looking like IT wants to a hit in all time highs before that gold was ripping. So IT seems like I have this dies that we are any macro o bull market and all assets are seeing a rise. And you could be called the everything bubble if .

you want to say that I can see IT yeah IT feels like it's been more than a week since uh, trump was elected, but it's only been a week I think with all the news that feels like it's been three weeks now. But um yeah, as soon as that news came out, we we can't ignore the fact that that's when the pump s started here. This is, uh, november fourth and this was the day of november fifth.

You can see D, S, N, P went wild and bitcoin, actually, I should say let's zoom in here so I can precisely show when the pump p really started, uh, right about here. Uh, if you follow Polly market, you probably saw that the odds kind of went from sixty, forty and favorite of trump t to all the suit was like ninety ten, ninety five, five, as the polls were kind of showing that he was the front runner and then was very likely, and then was official. So we had this huge pump here where we went from seventy to, uh, seventy five, and that was a big celebration.

And then we had that minor pull back to scare the retail traders, and then the stock markets opened the next morning. So this result, mine night here on the west coast. And then the S M P reacted to the news of a uh, perceived more business friendly president being, uh, elected for the next four years.

So everything went up. We kind of had some flatness over here over the weekend and encrypt a really started to pump. And ah it's just been everything, as you said, tony, going up in tana. Except I guess gold is A A good argument that it's not quite everything because in the .

short term here um you you actually right right it's pulling back and this is being kind of the M O. Her goal like IT doesn't usually move along side bitcoin necessarily looked. There are periods where IT does but more often than not, it's it's cooling down when the coin is moving. But if you do that on that charity, you look at IT from like a two year perspective, everything is rising uh and and IT could be like some uh cycling of liquidity between these assets. But I mean, you look at that in proper, not IT is all everything is rising and in my this is that this is all based on money debasement excuse currency debasement and trump, don't get me wrong, there's an a level emporia, an optimism that added to the abolition is but it's on the the long term time for it's all going up.

Yeah, this is an insane chart just to look at. You can see everything just blasted off. God, this feels like IT was sooner than that. But this was only thirteen months ago, right around early october is when we just started seeing everything take lift off. And uh whether you're encyclical gold or equities or all the above, it's been A A hello a thirteen months stretch ah as long as you've been holding steady in in not in our panic settling too much.

And so IT looks like the stock market, once a hit new highs, a big coin seems following that and uh what the optimism of trump and so forth. So looks like this is onna run in to twenty twenty five. And look, there will be a top at some point correction and maybe that's twenty, twenty, twenty five or late you know into twenty, twenty six people will have to way and .

see yeah and in just to play devil's s advocate, you know taxes are a thing and we're nearing the end of the year coming from one of the best years for trading in general no matter what sector you're in. Uh, this has been one of the best. And whales and retail traders alike, they do tend to take off some of their profits when IT comes to huge years where there's a lot of capital gains to pay.

Um so I would warn there might be something like that that comes or the end of december. We even saw that during the twenty seventeen bowl run. I remember the precise moment around like december eight ninth when we hit like A D K something top uh and then we had A A pretty significant pullback. I'm not going to say that definitely happening this time um especially if everyone expected to happen that really decreases is the likelihood of something like that happening. But during big years where there is a lot of tax uh, impact, there tends to be a little more volatility and weirdness when people get indecisive about what to do with their uh their own taxes.

Um and let's talk about supply and exchanges. Um are you seeing that continue to decline? I I know that one the indicators we were looking at um where the walls are moving coins back on the exchanges, that a bad sign because they may be looking to exit at the market.

Yeah, it's been actually looking pretty good in my opinion. Uh, on bitcoin side, you can see it's staying very low here in bright Green, the percentage of supply according to all the walls that sentiment tracks actually just went below nine percent。 Um it's IT really hasn't been this low since twenty eighteen.

So the risk of a future massive cell remains pretty low at the moment. There can still be A A big cell off for any reason. But theoretically, ally, you wanted to be low rather than .

high attention. Everyone way pairs black body. Previous sales here early right now after seventy person of everything home that way shift in time for holidays, shop early, every style.

every home here from me with the Price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we bring our Prices down. So to help us, we've rought an reverse auction. Ee, which is apparently a thing. Fifteen, fifteen. Fifty .

fifteen.

so give a flash switch, forty five dollars up from payment equivalent fifteen dollars for month. New customers on first three month plan only taxes be extra eds lower about forty c detail and at the same time look at all this drive powder tether, an USD coin. Moving to exchanges, preparing for, you know, more bias. So I like this combination of high, stable coins on exchanges and low bit coin on exchanges.

Yeah, that's that's really telling. Very, very interesting sing. And and one of things I do, I follow well alerts on twitter and i'm seeing the usdt and U S D C. Maintain they track how much is maintain that the treasurer is respectively. Um so it's fascinating that is all these things are in a line and telling the story of we were at and what the whales may be doing.

Yeah hundred percent i'm actually gone to check the market capable equip. So yeah there was a big maintain event on election night. Who knows how coincidental that is. But yeah there is this huge run up right here in new stable coins since november fifth one week ago. From the time of this recording, there was an increase of three point about three point six billion dollars in more tether uh existing so uh, maybe they knew who knows what you know with all the conspiracy theories out there. But undoubted there has been a boost in ah the number one stable coin and and how many existing coins are are circulating .

now um let's talk about doge coin because we are seeing some all coins. Bp men and dog has been on a chair. What do you think here?

Yeah insane. So since roughly going back to november second to now, the Price is up another forty one percent. If we go back exactly one month, it's up eighty eight percent in that time.

So oh, actually take you back. This actually needs a little refreshing. So now i'll look even Better. So I going back to the thirteen until now, yeah that makes more sense. Up two hundred forty percent uh we actually posted about IT um because IT crossed forty cents for the first time since twenty twenty one under one hundred k dose wallets ah which are obviously mainly reach retail.

There have been an increase of about seventy five thousand ever take addresses in the past four weeks while the amount of one hundred k plus dog Violet, which we can roughly call the whales and sharks, they've actually dropped by three hundred fifty walls in the past four weeks. Ah that's why were a little bit, if you on how much further this run can last. Now the last couple of days have actually looked pretty good.

This pink line represents the whales and sharks. They have actually moved back up by about one hundred five wallets. But the amount of retail that's causing this pump tells me IT could stop at any time. And it's really, of course, dependent on bitcoin itself staying stable.

Yeah I mean, as we return some big this type moves, they're amazing, they're fun, but they're not sustainable. And a the bull market works in phases and and you have these extreme runs in continuing is not a good sign because IT means I can fall back really hard. Now this caveat that obviously, but you want to see sustained moves, pump, pull back, build support levels, another pump, right, have to go in phases .

exactly IT it's IT really is a pear gamble when IT comes to any outgoing out there specially it's a mecom. Um i'm actually gonna show how I get the access right, show just how significant these run ups have been. Um because the average traders we saw a bitcoin like IT was a little above plus fifteen percent, which is a bit of a danger zone uh this thirty day one right here I got, although have to plus seventy four percent less than a day ago.

So that means the average wallet that was active in the past thirty days was profiting seventy four percent on their moves. That's off the charts, literally IT was off the charts. That's why I to move the access.

So it's currently about plus forty one percent, which is still crazy high when you talk about anything above this line being the danger zone. A it's a pure gamble right now. And this doesn't necessarily mean where inevitably about to fall IT out to A A fifty percent crash. Anything but IT means that buying right now, while the average wallets are already up so much, is A A A very big risk and IT could pay off. But odds are, uh, you have Better times to jump in and that's really all we can go off is probabilities .

yeah for sure. So let's look at at the mean coin category in itself. I'm i'm sure doge is going to scut the numbers, but I also see SHE by new is moving as well. Um but overall for the category, what what are you saying?

Let's check this out here. So i'm just gonna put on the seven day performance is is both on social volume as well as Price. So you can see the social volumes just bright Green everywhere.

This indicates that this week compared to previous weeks, we're seeing an increase in discussions. So the crowd is very much aware of the dose pump. And they are they're talking about IT, two hundred thirty four percent more than they were the week before.

No surprise there. They they get way more excited about speculative driven coins when they're pumping like you know crazy places that they have been. But besides those, you can see plenty that have actually been outpacing IT.

It's insane how much market cap market caps are growing across the board peppe coin, uh, which is not even pep. This is a different coin called pepe coin, up one hundred one percent. Uh, department of government efficiency plus, yeah yeah, uh loose plus five or five percent.

But that's still not the best performer. This is the best one we see means A I up seven hundred thirteen percent in the past week. Um you know they there's there's so many individual stories here from you know trading groups that are are pumping these assets and getting people on board.

It's kind of like the crop, the version of game stop in AMC right now it's just the wild west where um you know there are urging people that have diamond hands and not sell. Some people do IT anyways. And right now the social experiment for the people who are being patient is working out pretty well.

So fascinating, man, and it's incredible. But you know when the things i've seen is that there's a cycling liquidity. So what to your point, there's a danger zone here for dose and that liquidity may leave dog and go to other mean coins or other all coins and within the in market. So folks, after definitely look at the data and .

be careful exactly. And we saw the danger zone for doge, which looks like this up hundred eleven percent the past week. I can't even imagine what that looks like for some of these that are up three to five times more.

So just be a little careful out there. And it's gona be very bitter coin dependent. You know, if bitcoin really makes a run toward one hundred k over this next week, these kinds of gambles can actually pay off a little longer. But if IT doesn't and there's a little bit of joinest and all coins start to lose a little bit of steam, these are going to be the first ones to really a collapse and breaks some hearts.

Um as far as other mean coins are, the entire all coin market cap are using any interesting data.

Yes, you go back to to just the general screener here, uh you know cosme and uh has really gone uh nuclear up one hundred thirty eight percent the past week we see doge coin there is the second best performer among these large mid caps um etha has actually been A A great performer. Bonk another meme coin floki another meme coin.

Um i've been seeing a lot of kind of a minus here, large caps, the ones that are just outside, like the the etherium in salona. So genin cat its own individual run earlier this week cardono up about seventy percent the past weeks. So there's these are coins with A A very large contingency of followers that get very hyped when their coins start to explode.

And um it's funny when we post about them, we see like five times the amount of engagement compared to like you know a poke IT off inside or something like that. So yes, there is a lot of individual large caps right now. They're taking turns and even X R, P A has been going that even though it's only up thirty three percent the past week um the past twelve sh hours for IT at the time of this recording has been very good for IT.

Um so yes, IT looks like there's a lot of all coin's taking turns right now, which is typical after profit redistribution starts for bitcoin. Um it's really tough to say which ones are likely to be the best performers if this rally continues. IT seems as though meme coins are are kind of where traders focuses are right now.

But there also the highest risks because of how how incredibly crazy they've been going with their market caps. So I would just say, watch social volume. What I like to do is look at something like this.

I'll go to waited sentiment along with social volume, or actually, sorry, social dominance. So these two metrics s show the overall bullish versus bish perception from the crowd, along with the percentage of discussions related to that asset. And you can get a lot of quick inside just from looking at that. And it's actually looking pretty good for bit point. By the way, this is not crazy euphoric, even though the news outlets are saying everyone is crazy for are people definitely been positive, but not like, you know, crazy, like tell your grandparents that the the ving dinner and everyone needs to buy, buy bye right .

now so right right to have a thesis and and absolutely be wrong. Yeah, I think the whales wanna push this thing to a hundred k because that's a psychological number. It's going to make the main treatment right? They want to do before thanksgiving because you know what's going to happen, right? Yeah.

yeah. Those family dinner talks. yeah.

Did you see bitcoins? One hundred thousand, right? That's I A nice round number and something people really skep portal. The mainstream is skeptical, al, that I can even get there. But once he gets there, I think they're all onna .

wake up I think that's A A pretty decent uh you know theory. I don't know if one hundred day is going to be their target or not, whether ninety already was, it's really tRicky to say. Um i've actually rarely seen like a round number end up being the top for these all time highs.

You know like back in march IT was what seventy seventy three point eight or something back in, uh, twenty twenty one IT was like sixty eight point three. I can't remember the exact numbers, but I would actually be shocked if ninety thousand on the nose ends up being the new, you know, all time high for. An extended period of time. So for that reason, you could be right that there's plans to push higher. Um but the theory for everyone watching is you know when tony says they want to push you to one hundred k, it's like they have a set number that they're trying to get to so that people then Carry the baton on and push IT a little higher for them where they can sell at a premium and then basically watch Prices start to collapse a little and buyback again .

exactly so that that my thesis um and maybe I I could be absolutely wrong, but maybe you know they push IT to a point. Maybe it's ninety case of psychological number or ninety five. And then thanksgiving comes around and but talks about IT and and retail jumping the fom al starts and then he gets to one hundred, one hundred and five wales take profits.

See a nice correction, uh healthy correction. Not not the end of the recycle tear point. People get scared. They settle uh whales by and then we go to one hundred and fifty years, something like that by middle next year. I don't know.

Yeah I mean, I think a lot of people would be plenty happy with that result. So um you know as always, it's the holders ers who are are doing the best right now. Those who are not overreacting to these drops, all these rises and they're just kind of say, all right, i'm going to let IT sit my cold wallet and that you know check on IT when Sunny is going to college um .

last item here, if we could drill into some of the metrics around corner. I know a lot of folks want to know about that. It's been moving. And and like you said, there's a big community behind IT.

totally. So one thing that standing out is the transaction volume. We said there wasn't that much notable going on with bit coin, but cardono is a different story. We actually are seeing a huge Spike that happened on the night in tenth. And uh, that tells me this actually could be a little bit toppy not to not to break hearts of anyone who is holding a lot of car donor right now.

But this generally shows there might have been a lot of profit taking by key stakeholders when we suddenly go to like nearly eight billion dollars and track transaction volume when we hadn't seen that like all year long um and a corporates perfectly with like these big Price tops. Um yeah i'm a little concerned by that in the timing of this red canal right after IT. So that's not my favorite signal.

Um active addresses did look really good all the sudden uh but again, I think this with how anonymous that Spike looks IT looks a lot like profit taking um along with the circulation being a little high. But yeah the active addresses and uh transaction volume being that he is concerning also, you know I I won't change the act as I can just highlight with my mouth, but you can see that average returns actually got up to about plus fifty seven percent, which again is wae way above the danger zone for average traders. It's a little more reasonable now about plus one eight, but i'd still be most comfortable, uh, if I were buying cardono doing IT below plus .

fifteen percent.

And also we didn't even look at funding rate for bitcoin, but he looks very similar to car down or right now big longs opening up. These are the the largest Spikes in longs versus shorts on baLance uh, that we've seen since the march uh, all time high back then. So h be concerned about the fact that people are starting to open up those leverage lungs and in margin accounts, trying to capitalize on a further cardono pump. Uh, definitely concerning. We'd much rather have them be shorting because that's typically where bottoms occur.

Interesting.

even whale transactions. Here you see the sudden Spike. So that kind of confirms that, that transaction volume is correlated with some whale activity that jumped up to five hundred twenty two million dollar plus transactions in one day after Normally being in the two hundreds. So another another concern there, again, I don't know if this is necessarily the local topic is gonna be big coin dependent, just like the mean coins but unlike unlike some other coins, I do see some some metros s that look to be very indication of at least a local top right now.

Um yeah and personally and this is not fine to vice like I would not be buying caron or right here. I would be waiting for a good pullback after this strong run. I never buy into pumps. I always buy when is red and and uh you know according to some of the data you're showing here, when when you see like some things are bottom ming out and the sentiment is starting to reduce a bit from Green to maybe neutral fear.

嗯 哼 yeah exactly right and uh IT just IT IT seems IT seems like the foo like cardona was one of the most ignored coins all year long。 I was not performing very well at all, compared the most other old coins out there. And then all the sudden we see this huge social dominant Spike, the percentage of discussions related to all of crypto, and nearly got the four percent for cardon.

Now despite IT Normally being like point five point seven percent, so yeah, the crowd's suddenly jumped on and said, oh, look at carden ago. So like this, this was the coin to buy all along. And then over sudden IT hit s the top right as the crowd is foo ing into IT. So it's a tail is all this .

time absolutely bring great stuff, man. Uh, this is is so telling, the data is so beautiful that tells you the the clear story versus trying to use your gut or going with your emotions because the markets can play with your emotions. And uh, I hope these episodes people are learning how to view the markets to look at data first versus .

the emotions agreed. yeah. The the more you can take emotion out of the equation, the Better you tend to do is so is here to a catchy guys up on the markets and it's always a pleasure chatting with you, tony.

Yeah, bright. I think we may have to start doing this weekly as the bull market intensifies.

I'm down. yeah. I know there's a lot of demand for what's happening right now. So yeah, let's catch up very soon and run this back are .

some thank you, brand.

thanks.

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