Bitcoin State of The Union! ETFs, Elections, Bretton Woods, Bull Run Price Prediction with Mark Yusko
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If you live in the dc area, see your options today at uhc doll plan stock com. I think IT doesn't matter a long term who wins the election. I think short term A A Harris win is negative for bitcoin. Short term because people think of gangs er is going to stay and warns going to be empower and and that's bad and IT is but but bitcoin is proved and over and over over again that action survive all the dum attacks based on foot.

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And best of all, IT is F D I C. Ensure just like a bag. So if you'd like to learn more about uphold, visit the link in the description. Welcome into the thinking crypto podcast. I'm your host tony award and my guys, today's markus go, who's the founder C, E, O and C, I, O at Morgan crew capital management are great to have you back on now.

great to be here and and great to a celebrate hoddle win with you. A the sixteen anniversary of the White paper, the opponent White paper from situation OK moto and I added if you followed the story earlier today of a fake toshi uh big press conference in london and nobody showed up.

it's guy's ridiculous.

mark is this is crazy. It's just, you know, IT would be one thing if the person who claimed to be seto shi was an actual programme r and sea plus plus and and you know was fossil with the technology. But you know, the people who have claimed to be, you just fit that bill. So whatever.

yeah. So mark, sixteen years. what? What do you see? bacon? Is that a teenager? You know, you use the .

absolutely total, total teenager.

And the thing about teenagers is what I refer to as the potential to capability ratio, right? And so you think about the ever teenager, you know some of them are reasonably capable, but in terms of their potential, that capability is is very low relative to their their potential in yeah, I used to use an example that I twisted out a picture of of ten year old lebron James and IT looks like any other kid, literally wasn't tall, wasn't big, looks like a Normal, nice little boy and someone, how much would you pay for the the future earnings of this kid? And but that slavery i'm not slavery.

Like just if you could write a contract like David boy selling his, you know future record, uh, deal in a bond, you know how much would you be? And I don't know. That looks like a Normal kid.

Well, OK, if I told you was Brown, how much you pay a well, I pay a lot. Well yeah of course. So knowing someone's potential is hard knowing someone's capability, right? If they do this task and do the people not like if someone asked fake toshi to programme and c plus plus you said I forgot no um so the same thing through a bickle right yes we're gone from zero this amazing right because you know today is the sixteen anniversary of conception and um IT looks like some OK. Uh I look like we had A A A an interloper for second so sixty th anniversary of conception， but the actual birth was was in january a of two thousand and nine.

And you know that that gestation period between kind of the creation of the White paper and the actual birth, you still came out with essentially no value, right? Point O O O, one cent are not my dead at a point. O O O, three cents. And yeah, there's the famous ten thousand bitcoin for pizza and all like, or two pizzas and all like, is that.

But I will argue that those first few years, I like an infant, you know there's not a lot of there there I mean, you know raising particularly the first few months of life, there's just not know they they eat, they sleep, they pop, they cry. Um it's tough, it's tough. Uh and I think that what bitcoin was in those those earliest day, so i'll even argue that were probably a decade ish into the real kind of period of the esc and adoption.

So as cars over thirty years, you get the first you know kind of twenty percent in the first decade, the next eighty percent. Uh, i'm sorry. The first ten percent in the first decade, the next eighty percent in the second decade in the maturity, the last ten percent of those stubbing convergingly people who say, i'm never gonna get one of these things, like my dad still doesn't an A T M card, believe or not eighty eighty six years old um but although he doesn't think so, what's interesting about this is Vicky is proven to be capable, right? IT functions.

IT is the most secure computing platform the world has ever seen, is the most powerful computing network the world has ever seen, no one thousand five hundred times more powerful than the cern supercomputer. Number two, so that's pretty capable yet the potential is orders of magnitude greater, right? And yes, is at one point four trillionth h dollar acid or one point three um I should know that number but you know somewhere in that one point three, one point four trillion and and yet the likelihood that this is a hundred trillion dollar base layer of all value in the future is reasonably likely.

And so what are you talking about? Like, well, what what bitcoin really is and what solution archimedes gave us with his gift everything what how do you know to he he self identified is he one time? Um so we know to he now could be multiple his right but the person who was typing was he um so that gift was not just the code. A bit on to a lot of people contributed to that. IT wasn't just the idea of bitcoin.

IT was this idea and capability of creating a unique asset in the digital world because that's an idea that will spawn lots of gigantic businesses when everything of value, and I do mean everything, every stock, every bond, every currency, every comedie, every piece of our, every collectable car, every case of find wine, every private business, when every everything of value is stored and exchanged using block chains. And bitcoin is a block chain. And, you know I even have pair sox.

Is bitcoin a blockchain? Bitcoin is a blockchain. But uh, I know the point you're trying to make, right, the bitcoin is is the the the the only good blocking and all the other stuff is night.

I'm prominent in that camp, but but I do think this is the best base layer and likely to be digital goal, base layer of money and therefore base layer of value. And if I own a very valuable digital asset, i'm probably gonna store IT on bitcoin, right? I'm probably inscribe IT pay a transaction fee to put IT on the safest, most secure rank.

I think proof of work is superior. So that's a really long answer to your question is, is how we do in IT sixteen. So uh, I think we're doing great.

Uh, I think we should throw a big party, you know um I guess in in h latten culture right is to fifteen birthday. The um I know from print that right um is the sweet sixteen for for us angle culture. So is this the sweet sixteen? I guess the the technical sweet sixteen will be in january and we should have a big party around that. Um but like a sixteen year old birthday party, the best is yet to come. The best .

and mark, on that note, I I feel that over the past year, something significant has happened. There has been a change in year. You got these etf vacuum sucking up all the bitcoin.

You got politicians pitching bitcoin as a reserve asset. You have companies globally is not just microstrip gies companies in japan adding back into the baLance. Um there is people teasing uh, of the other companies are teasing that they're gona do that. I think .

Michael dell shameless plus i'm a board member metaphor ET I am i'm a monster fan of what what Simon has done and bringing in Dylan and and you know look I I jumped on that starship um the moment Simon invited me and you know we will be the microstrip gy of asia for sure and you know tab Michael sailor actually comment on that in forms the day was was mind boy, so pretty cool so mark.

do you think we've cross the casm like bitcoin is gone, mainstream traffic here. Politicians are on board and is just a matter of time .

I mean hundred percent right. Um and I do agree that this year was a very, very big year um like like that sweet sixteen I think get driver's license and all that good stuff and and kind of get out of that you know little kid phase into not quite adult holiday eighteen but but IT is pretty big year. But again, the the best is yet to come.

So yes, we are more mainstream and and yes, now there are number two hundred and fifty three hundred million uh holders and users around the world but that sets for peace from know the multiple billions that will someday transact in in bitcoin on a daily basis. And yes, this is all the time. You, my, my grandkids are summer, right? Genes and y'll never know what this is, right? Don't never have a leather wallet.

They'll never have one. They'll never know what paper money is. They they will live a digital life and they'll transact their digital wallets.

And uh, that's prety cool. And they may not drive them, speaking of sixteen, they may not actually drive themselves when nature. And sixteen they may be, uh, by technology.

But the reason the bitcoin had such a big year is every incremental year that you survive increases the likelihood deal survive longer on the Linda effect. And IT also has to do with with life expectancy. You know people when they look at the life expecting y numbers say, oh, that means people are living longer. And well, IT does. But what IT really means is people aren't dying Younger.

So when you go back and you look in the fifteen hundred to the sixteen hundred to the seventeen hundred life, expecting y was thirty, thirty five, forty IT wasn't because no one lived to be eighty five or ninety IT was that so many people died zero, one, two, three, four, five and you know we fixed most of that through progress and and technology not all that um but that's that's the thing is the fact the bitcoin didn't die every year. I am actually wearing uh H I don't make IT so i'm wearing my you rest in peace bitcoin socks with the little wings and he has got little tombstones on the bottom one is in a halloween. Are halloween and two, because for sixteen years, at least thirty forty people a year have declared bitcoin is dead.

And I would say we're going to need bigger tomes, don't because they said IT in no nine way to cross out, they set IT in ten. We have to cross out and they set IT last year cross down. They said again this year to crossed out and a dead.

And it's not gonna die because IT should I die in those first couple years? Yeah right. If I was going to die and if the technology didn't work, and if you couldn't actually have a unique digital asset in the digital realm, IT should have die, but he did.

And the fact is, every year is building on the success of the previous years. And in the etf are just a good example, right? In etf, you say it's not even bitcoin. I no it's not no one actually saying IT is it's a rapper, right? Make up the boomer rapper.

So for, you know my brother and sistern you don't want to deal with wallet, can just buy well, IT is not your keys, is not your coins, right? right? But anyone have money in the bank, anyone listening to this podcast of money in the bank, probably not your money.

No, no, that's my mind. Not, not. It's the bank's money. And you have an I, O, U.

And if you go cash on that, I O you most of the time that works unless you protested the truckers in canada and they froze your bank account or unless you and you, uh, cyprus and you woke up one morning and three quarters of the money was gone or like what happened to me the first time I tried to buy bitcoin directly back of americans like, oh, no, you know, we're going to keep your money. What you mean? So what says right here, we can hold your money for two weeks.

Like, okay, fine, but in two weeks you're going to give IT to me and then i'm taking all my money out, which I did. So I no longer bank with bank amErica and it's that evolution and more people getting involved and whether it's the etf now buying, you know tens of thousands of a big coin uh, on a daily, weekly, monthly basis or whether it's people like Michael sailor saying, no, just announce he's gonna raise forty two billion dollars, you know twenty one and twenty one uh, in equity, in debt to buy more bitcoin and you know the focus meta planet, we're much smaller. I mean tiny, tiny um but we're going to issue bonds to buy bickle in and um you know all these things make sense if you step back and so okay, we live in a world where four years we've been sold this kind of build a goods that to be a functioning member of society, you had to get a job and get paid and save and buy a house and importance, get student loans and do all these things.

Oh, okay, but let's think about that for second. So I don't college helps me get good job. Okay, time buy that. But in the old day, didn't have any debt. And as debt goes up, if you get a lot of debt, then the value of that job you're getting gets reduced, right? So there's this low where we are being there.

Then there's the problem of if i'm working for someone else and they're paying me in an asset, that thing gets devalued over time because the government just prints more of IT. Isn't that that isn't that inflation stealing my well well, what if I could get paid in this other asset that doesn't devalue? Yeah the thing I think this is about bc, right?

You we're celebrating that IT got close to a near all time hives again. And is this is october so up like thirteen, fourteen percent october, so is like fifteen and sixteen october, which pretty mazing. And and I think novembers can be even Better in december, could be just lights out, but we can talk about why.

But when I think about all of that, what IT really says is people are realizing that one bitcoin is one bitcoin. One biton actually doesn't change. It's the thing that we are, and I think we all mean in global society chooses to value IT IT.

So in argentina, Price only goes up because the paste only goes down, right? In turkey, the Price only goes up because the hero only goes down in lots of places around the world, mostly where there are dictators, uh, they devalue the currency that as part of the dictor playbook, because siphon s the wealth up to the tip top. You know the also in I, and you could argue party convincingly that you know the current western administrations, uh, broadly speaking, are doing the same thing, right? They're devaluing their currencies.

So the people at the top, their donors, uh, keep them in power and get super rich. Because if you borrow in a wasting asset and have to pay back and dollars that are worth less and you're ask that goes up. So speculating in real estate stocks or the problem is the average person doesn't own those assets.

They rent their home. They don't know stocks. They can't get debt, right? They don't have high enough credit score to get debt. And so I had this experience. I was that a bitcoin event in in term in the bulls city, uh, bull city bitcoin and the bar tender came home. He was talking to us before they been started.

SHE was interested and the guys described as so well as well, you know, you're here a month ago because they have this month they get together and you ve got a bunch of tips, right? Well, those tips are worth less today then when you got them. So what you mean? Well, the purchasing power of those tips went down through inflation.

Had you convert those tips to bitcoin or had we tipped you in bitcoin, IT would be Better and said, okay, I need do that. So, you know, he puts up Q, R, code, and now people can tip and bitcoin. And had SHE done that right, he would have more money, not less.

And so as more people realize that they can opt out, bt, yeah, may be not for all of your money, because they going to be a functioning member of society. We, through belief and customs, have decided that each country will have its own currency. Some money is currency and its paper with no inherent value, intrinsic value backed by dead.

I always find that funny, right? America, we use Green pieces of paper. And in israel, they use yellow pieces of paper, and in chinese is red pieces of paper. And in europe they use plastic, I paper and this kind of interesting, but we all have these this belief system that if I hand you a Green piece of paper, you'll give me some good or service.

Well, the problem with that is if I agree piece of paper, and they literally run a printing press, although they don't do paper anymore, they do with ones and zero s on a computer. And if I had A A million dollars sit over here and you printed in other million dollars, the value just fell by half. And that's what constantly has happened since the sixteen hundreds when the first central bank was created.

And bitcoin solves that problem right after all those years. We now have a way where we have a fix supply team Better and goal. Goal didn't go out digging out of the grounds or you can mind aster's forder, whatever.

I don't know if they actually ever do that, but but they say they can. So the the the volume of goal could go up maybe even precipitously. They've had a big discovery, but we know every day for the next hundred and forty years how many big coin are going to be created.

So they predictably scarce. Asset IT looks scarcity. It's kind of the coolest thing ever, right? Think of anything that scarce, right? How about concert tickets to tea swift? Yeah, my granddaughter is when walking around today.

Is tea swift, right? And that's her thing. He wants to be tea with six years old. He looks just like her.

Man, my daughter, same thing.

yeah. And so, but a ticket, right? This should Normally have cost. No, fifty box, seven five box, one hundred fifty box.

We're going for tens of thousands of dollars because limit supply, unlimited demand. Okay, I mean, I happen to, through my, my thirteen year old, play some video games, some card games. So we play magic the gathering, right? And there's a video I love.

This kid got the one of one literally, you know, which is the coast printed one card, board card, little magic baLance card, with the ring from the lord, the rings collab they did. And he's videoing IT as he unboxed IT and his his hands like literally shaking like this because he just may two and a half million dollars. He actually did sell the car for around that much people.

I was rigorous as a piece of cardboard. Yes, IT is. But there's only one in the whole world. So I could just go make a thousand of they won be the same yeah I mean and and you can say, no, that's dumb and you can say the motley a being Priceless is dum but there's only one and they're only every b one yeah and I give you one last thing on this. So I was in the vatican museum this past summer.

Amazing place, right? Yeah, now the story of the vast museum is the less good because they write the deal. Pope wondered this up, right? They they literally went out and stall the stuff and exported IT and let people on money, knowing they couldn't pay IT back so they could take their stuff.

Not the nicest men don't, but where? But so ask the guide. I said, you know, anyone tried to a value? The collection SHE really started later.

She's like, come on like that. One of one Prices are effect. What's the value that one of one Priced artifact?

What's the valley and like, ah you're right because there there's one greek statue of this type with this ARM broken h how many people would want that more than one? And so IT does have an infinite value and not internet like that's like sports teams, right? I mean, everybody ever bought a sports team. Everyone says all their dios say they ever paid and they always make lots and lots of money because there's only so many sports teams and there's always someone with the bigger ego who has a bunch of worthless toil, the paper feat, the galaxy change, to own that sports team and and live their Gloria's.

But mark isn't IT also that to the point of the sports team and owning some these things, they know how the system is set up on their fiat currency regime. They keep printing so the asset Prices keep going up. So you are, yes, you could love the sports, uh, or you love the team and you you want to be involved. Like to say my cubin Marcus in loves basketball and so but he just sold IT to make a profit. I mean and i'm sure he understands the money printing cycle and you can simply .

he does IT and and he's really good at at buying other things. He's he's been a good venture investor and I like, would he have earned as good or Better return? Keeping the mavericks forever probably is hard.

It's hard for me to envision a world where the value of sports franchise decline and and actually not only not is IT, not just not decline but doesn't increase at a higher rate than inflation and and other investments because it's so scarce, right? There's only so many, they're not going to make a lot more. That said, if you go, weight is just the love. Large numbers.

If you have something worth one hundred billion and in a west, the likelier is going to double to two hundred and three hundred and four hundred, and pretty likely, but what's the chance you could take, you know, that hundred billion and make a hundred billion dollar investments and have a bunch of them be ten or twenty or fifty one hundred bars? reasonable? And so I I, I think that's probably, you know what he'll he'll end up doing.

Um so I but ultimately, this keeps coming back to the same thing, which is. Uh, value, right? What we all describe value to is mostly related to time and you are spending time trying to create some value, uh, by exchanging ideas and have a conversation that's one way of a converting time to value. Uh, another way would be I could go do some physical labor, right? I could go digger a data.

I could build a fence so I could paint a uh a miral um not that i'm an artist, but but I could poly fill in the dots um paint by numbers um so anything that you do in life is about converting energy and time in devalue yeah and so one of the cool things about bitcoin is IT is one of the most perfect ways to capture time and value in a point in time and space uniquely. And the network verifies who owns IT and what they exchanged for IT. And then when you're ready to sell IT forward, IT does IT again.

And you can't you can change IT, meaning one big coins always can be one big coin. Yeah, I bought, uh, IT be usually if I in my home office you see little by bitcoins I behind me so I bought that using bitcoin and that fixed amount of bitcoin that I I used to buy IT. The value of that asset has appreciated in relation not just to the fact that is a scary asset, is not the by bye coin sign but it's a by bitcoin sign Christian made IT but it's not the the one um but if I saw that for the same number of bitcoin, IT would be worth meaningful ly more than when I bought IT and IT is like I I saw great yesterday.

You know the Price the average Price of a home right is the new all time hires right in dollars is the new all time lows in big one. That's a cool thought. Well, mark, with all of these .

things happening from an adoption standpoint to the ets, wall street or big coin companies adding about countries butt, do you think that there is going to be, maybe ten years now, or maybe sooner, a britain, another britton wood's moment where the world governments have to come together and say, hey, we need to add big coin to the gold, a longside gold.

that this is a really important point. Um trank. The answer is, is definitively yes. I think they meaning know that the global governments will resist as long as possible. Look, if you if you run the book snow crash, right, three ten in nineteen ninety, one of me is crazy. The guy coined the term metaverse in in one thousand nine hundred and ninety one.

And IT basically predicted exactly this, right, that the idea of nation states would start to dissipate and things that all merge kind of together, and each nation state will resist that, right? Because, you know, canada, we want to be part the U. S.

And U. S. I don't be part canada, south america.

But, but literally people now are no matic work from anywhere IT connected. you. You are not in the same place.

Used to be, if we want to do something like this, we had to be in the same place. And there was one camera, one, one microphone. And but that's not where he works anymore.

So as the the boundaries of the world start to blur, the likelihood that the same way that the countries came together in a post role war two and said, you know, we had a stabilizing else, everything is going to go down the toilet. So let's stabilize around the us. Dollar, right? You know where the we're the Young upstart.

I mean, people forget this is crazy. Thirty years earlier, and thirty years is not long time. Yeah, thirty years earlier.

The sun never said on the british empire the pounds sterling was the world reserve currency. We were an emerging market run by gangs. The chance. And the irish gangs were at war and they ran everything, and they ran the government, they ran commerce, they ran everything.

And finally, in one thousand hundred and twenty nine, curiously, on same valentine's day, right, the same valentine day massacre, the italian ganging finally wiped out the irish gang. And that was the end of gang offer. Now the mafia has been in charge since since then, and you know, one game.

But in that thirty year period from nineteen and thirteen and one thousand forty four, a lot happened way to second. Why is the nineteen and 4？ Why is nineteen thirty? You go, well, that's the big thing.

The U. S. Central bank defended reserve because what that allowed was the creation, a fiat currency by this upstart nation run by gangs.

And we could paper the world with this, with this Green piece of paper. And we had a plan, right? We had a plan to make the dollar, the hydronic world reserve currency.

Now IT only worked because there was this war, which, if you go back and read history, so who started the war? Who commented, why? Why did the war happen? What we wait a second? Who were the winners and losers of the war? Okay um but war creates winners and losers, losers being europe, particularly in the U.

K. Because the U. K. So the seeds of their own demise, they are on the right side of the war, but they are on the wrong side of finance because they had tried to invade, coincidently measle potentia right the middle and a bunch of debt, and then they needed help to win the war.

And again, who started the war, who finish the war? All this kind of but topic for another day. But we came in and say, yeah, we will save, everybody will fix IT in exchange for you got to use out forget this pound sterling thing and I know you been using the pounds sterling for seventy five years and you love IT.

It's it's fancy and the the english and english sounds Better spoken by someone from the U. K. I.

So if I had a british accent, my I Q points now got twenty. It's it's incredible. But but I don't have engle action.

I can't even do one. So again, that's a long answer to the we've had a good run. U. S. Hegemony has had a good run.

IT was exacerbated in seventy one when we could dial si and said, I here's the deal, will protect you at all cost, doesn't know what you do to us, doesn't know what you do. Anybody else will protect you as long as you Price all oil transactions in dollars. Why does that matter? Well, that made the dollar really the hygienic world reserve current.

And if you think about IT, you know the us. Is only about eight percent of global trade because not had that bike population right. And yet it's sixty eight percent of global currency.

right. Doesn't any sense. And that number has been shrinking because in one by one, china, russia, others have started to move on.

Now the first two IT didn't work out so well, so said they were going to get off the dollar um you know, ex IT stage left put coffee in libya, said i'm getting off the dollar. He got wet. I am not saying they were absolutely tired, I am but so he didn't threaten. You know, it's like, it's like the song, right? Don't on superman's cape, I tell gan superman cape for .

spitting into the wind wasn't also that we had atomic .

bombs back in the day after all that which again was created by an interesting group of scientists that we k to come to the U. S. Under, you know, some some interesting stuff, but the there are some great books on that whole period of history that that layed IT out in chapter universe.

But in a day we want h now through this innovation of bitches in, we are gonna have that britain woods moment. And yes, the incumbent are gonna fight tooth and nail because the the internet right that we're using right now to talk dusted the monopoly that was enjoyed for hundreds of years by media and commerce, you busted IT wide open, right? Citizen journalism has now replaced, you know, the the wk media and no commerce can be between peer to peer and we don't need middle people um we use medal people like amazon s are a big search engine and they're great, but it's just a search and actually make stuff.

So not a company way we think of companies, but there are massive network and very valuable. But going forward, what what people are realizing is bitcoin, bost and block chains broadly, bost financial services, financial services is the biggest century in the world. Barnt mean, there's nothing close.

And stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities. Because you can, do you think stock market is big? Well, the bond market is ten times as big as the stock market and the currency markets.

Another ten times is big. So hundred times is big. So these are big, big, big markets and seven trillion dollars a year of expense to you and me and everybody else. But that profits and red revenues and ultimately profits to the companies. So they don't want this to go away.

So they are actually coined the term for this the other day um in comment siona right so in compense y plus sign I and that's why thought exists fear, uncertainty oub t right it's why they spread malicious rumors that the technology is bad for the environment or bad for the asset is used for drug trafficking. And like you want to know what the biggest money launder ing tool in the world is, a big coin. Steel dollar by far is not close.

Me is not close like ninety nine percent to one yeah um as IT you want know what your child trafficking is done in not be going dollars um and is not close so all the horrific things occur with the opponent ous world if the coin world the world are currency someday maybe then all the best stuff would happen with that too because unfortunately best of going to happen because humans are going to human um and I think it's Better today than it's ever been yet still really, really bad and there's still love things. We get a fix. But you know we all live Better lives today than than we ever have, right? And not can not everybody but generally speaking, yeah you know they're more they're fewer people in object poverty.

There are few people with chronic disease. There's less than from mortality. So many things that are positive. Do we have lots of work to do? absolutely. Do we have simple problems like having actual leaders in government that be a good start and turn limits um but we can fix some of that on tuesday, hopefully um so yeah speaking of tuesday um what .

you you know what do you thought on president trump? And uh even the centers and alumina putting out the proposal to make big winner us treasure reserve asset. Do you think that is closing?

The enema is is awesome, and she's been awesome for a long time. The Donald is an opportunity. St, is maybe the greatest opportunity.

St, you know, I mean, not that great. He's one of the greatest opportunities. never.

And he saw the opportunity, right? He got the invitation to be going twenty four, and he have to speak. There is like how many people on bitcoin OK a lot of voters.

okay? And he said, all the right thing. In my favorite part, on my first day of fire, again, the place went crazy.

I mean, like, like, even he was surprised. Yeah, how crazy with I said. I must say that again, on my first day, our fire garage and the place went through.

And so and when he said i'll make a strategic reserve, I won't sell a bit coin, right? I'll actually put IT in a trust, and then I will go up in value, then all or less money on the debt novel concept. You know, the only thing I ever agreed with w when he was president, I like w now I think he's really cool guy.

But as present, I didn't like and I didn't know of anything he said, except he did say we should take so security input in stocks now as timing was bad, IT was market peak in two thousand. But the idea was, right, right? We should invest so security in assets like stocks, like ba coin, like venture capital, because then IT wouldn't be a page you go system, because page you go systems eventually break.

But when they set IT up, there were seventeen retirees for every worker. I mean, I am sorry, seventeen workers for every retired, great system. When I turn retirement age, i'd used to joke that you, they'll only be too.

That means I lose my two kids, choose between me and my wife, my wife, kids, all the money. So I had a one of kids, so we had another kids. We didn't have four did have.

So I just got one like thirteen. But he got a long life, had to support his ad. But the the key is that the page go system doesn't work.

You know tomos c and G, I C, I figured out how to make IT work by investing. But that's again, topic for another day. So I do think this election is is really important because.

I do believe bitcoin is a single issue that you should cast your vote on and why I well, that seems rather hyperbolic. Well, I am prone to hyperbole, but I don't think this is actually hyperbolic in the of all the things that are truly important. It's the ability to Foster innovation and wealth creation.

That's the most important thing for a country. If you look at all the failed states they lacked that they try to restrict, that they try to keep IT at the top with a few people chronister their capitalism and even work. Socialism and and marxism, uh, or communism and IT doesn't work, right? We know the best form of anything is capitalism and encouraging wealth creation and innovation.

And so it's abundantly clear right now, and I am a live ong coron rest of the independent, but I am a life fong democrat believer in that I believe there should be so safety net. I believe there should be, you know uh incentives, uh, that are aligned and and all the good stuff. But the current version of of that party is not at all resembling anything that I could ever support.

Mean, if you read their tenants, I this crazy, if you read the ten points from the from the dnc and you read the marxist manifesto, seven of the ten are almost word for word. I like that. That's wow.

That's a wow. And now people say, well, but trump just lies. You just saying stuff to say up, yeah, that's true. Don't cares about doll and dot k cares about doll's family and get in rich.

But in so doing, the things that he has said now out loud that he agrees with are things that are pro business, pro innovation, pro innovate, amina, pro uh, inclusion, meaning financial inclusion as opposed to exclusion using V I. So all of those things, I think make IT, make IT a very clear, clear choice. Now now i'll see what happens.

But but i'm I am hopeful that logic prevails. And I think if people get beyond the reti c and and focus on but there are there are other things, there are certain things that certain people are gonna vote, like now, the abortion, that the only thing that's all they care about. Well， god love that.

That's everything okay. But if you if you care about finance and um commerce and growth and prosperity, that's what I do for livings that's what I care about. Um then I think IT IT IT becomes abundantly clear that we need a different direction than the one rin.

Now I actually believe IT doesn't really matter who is president quite nicely. What really matters is who controls the lawmaking body congress. Um so we need that to to shift away from the the crazy right now. But the point I mean what .

we're seeing more democrats working with the republican colleagues, they got the first twenty one build out the house. This talks of getting one through the lane duck session in the senate. I mean, you get chuck humor, not a lining with lives before. And that's a great sign.

Oh my god, so awesome. no. And that's think.

The whole left right thing is is kind of funny, right? Because the original party, right, if you've watch hamilton, right, they will call democratic republicans right? Verse, the federal.

So you know, you got the federalist to want state, state, state, state, state. And then you have these democratic republicans who wanted a republic, which is what we got. And we live in a republic, right? We don't live in a democracy. We live in a republic. Now is a democratic republic, which is good.

But what that means is you should have people who are more centrist but we've now policed everything and so you got these two fringe groups who are crazy on both sides and we've lost the needle so the middle isn't vote, which kind of sad um and the great leaders of our time, ron reagan, bill k. Linton and say there are good people, say they are great leader. Leaders join kandy, they from the middle and I think summer is actually an example of someone who said, you know what, i'm tired to be way out here.

I'm going to come more in here because it's more logical and yeah, maybe it's not as far the middle of I would like, but middle is where that you grandpa types and and others that you know, at the end of the day, it's actually kind of genius and and and actually extraordinary. There are bunch of twenty something now we call the founding fathers, but they, most of them were barely fathers. They were, they were kids.

And there are few old guys, but but most of their kids, and yet they had vision that they qualified in some rules that have stood the test of time and and still make really good sense about life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I mean that that's ultimately liberties, really important word there, and freedom of speech, and freedom of the press and right to bear arms and all these things. They're so central and so simple, but they get so politicized.

And if we just come back to the central amErica is like, well, but I just take guns and not i'm not an automatic weapon proponent. I don't think everybody needs you know hundred magazine I I don't and I know people course you yes, some portion of people need to have the same arms ament as the military so that we can be taken over by the note that I get right um but the average person does not need that right. I'm going to hunt with an automatic weapon but I think is anyone's right to have those. And by supporting that right, then maybe theyll support my right to say what I think or say what I feel and and even if they disagree with IT, which again is a fundamental right and privilege of of living in the greatest country ever. So.

yeah, uh and full agreement you there um I did want to get your thoughts on what you think is gonna en is q for a big point if you .

have a Price prediction and do you I do look I I think IT doesn't matter a long term who wins the election. I think short term, uh a Harris win is negative for bitcoin. Short term because people think um gangs ers gona stay in and warns gonna be in power and and that's bad and IT is but but bitcoin is proved and over and over over again that they can survive all the dum attacks based on food.

But short term, I think that would be would be bad. Long term it's actually probably Better because that side has drunk the cool aid of the cult of kelton and they believe that mmt works and that you can print as much money as you want and and give money on your crony's. So they are going to keep doing that right in the fact that we are still sending billions, tens of a billions of dollars to ukraine in in what's just a blate money launder ing Operation.

I mean, there's is battened as the nose on your face and yet or still doing IT and that is has to be financed. No way to answer to print money, which is to debate in this way. I just paid you like eighteen dollars for lunch, the ten. So that means that that one bitcoin Prices in dollars will be much higher. So one term, if the democrats stay in charge in moonshot now.

so are using A A blog top by q two or so.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So look, I I think before your cycle lies, right and so you know we're the final stage of the parodic move.

So post having about one hundred and seventy eight days out, you get a big move which we just had uh and then in the next kind one hundred and twenty days you get the the total para bolic and that's because everybody's can be home for thanksgiving talking about IT and then everyone try to buy IT and then need to ask going to buy IT and and buying begets buying and and I think we go truly care about um said maybe you had a short term down and then as a super spy with haris, if trump wins, I think it's just straight up now IT probably doesn't go as high as far as fast because he has talked about gotten the budget deficit and you'll get me on must to be the so the dose right the uh department of government efficiency um and is interesting because you know dogs italian word comes from the guys in and around the people who invented the system that we're trying to tear down the medical es back in the the malaysia with a dogies. So I think that's just kind of missing, but um probably unrelated, but uh, IT is interesting. So I do think doesn't matter who wins long term, the Price.

So between now and kind of middle of octo or middle of december, I think we're definitely into six digits. I think we're definitely how high hundred one hundred twenty just depends how how much crazy. If you remember in in seventeen, we went from ten thousand to twenty thousand in about eight weeks yeah and then on december eighteen, they allowed futures and we went down because again, what's happening and you can see you on on your clock behind you, the Price is gone down.

What is the Price going raised by weeds set record for new. But remember, a lot of those buys, particularly by the hedge funds and the traders, they're shorting the future against IT. So they're pushing the Price down so they can buy a cheaper, right dirty little secret on the street if you would like something you don't tell everyone you like IT, you tell everyone you hate IT and then you go out buy more.

So so they are push the Price down the futures and that's why it's in seventeen. And then eighteen, we had the bear market all the way down to three thousand. So then in, uh, twenty one and we are at thirteen thousand, we are to sixty thousand by mid february before elan, quote tweet that he wasn't going accepted for cars and then we drop fifty percent and then IT went up a hundred back to all time high, uh, before the bear market.

And so I think that's where IT changed. So sometime first quarter next year, second quarter next year, we get the next bar cycle. There will be another bar cycle, and the depth of the bar cycle will depend on how high the blow of top post.

Because fair value is just gonna keep a creating fair value today, probably in the eighties, somewhere like that by a midden. Next year, i'll probably closer to a hundred, and that's just the meccah law value of the network. But if we go to one hundred and fifty hundred sixty, then we're duffing on a crash and will go right through fair value as we are prone to do now.

Do we go down eighty four percent or eighty three percent or sixty seven percent? I don't know. Um that all depends on how much leverage gets in the system because all to me, that's what determines the cycles when the Prices below fair value, the the investors come in, people like me who like to buy things below for value, that's our job.

Then is the Price starts to get towards fair value. The traders common and traders don't care about fair value. They just want movement.

Well then if you get a bug, fair value, the speculators comment. Why the speculators comment because the heart wants is a bug. Fair value they will sell.

And he speculators just the opposite side of a hedger, right? So the minor old, until he gets about fair value, then they sell. Or then the game was coming and the game liars.

All they see is a Price going up. They just buy IT on margin and they hope they can get out before IT goes down and then are just unwind the same way. Now in .

addition to the big etf and the e 点 etf， you got salona etf being fall for X R P, E T S. But those a bit tRicky because of cancer and the S C C and all the lawsuits and everything uh, do you think if ganser is out and let's take trumps and a republican as a teacher comes in, some of those lost you going to be dropped and thinks somebody, these eyes will get a proof.

Yes, I do. I I think the problem with them know is. I said etf are really a boomer wrapper um and a bombers kindly get digital gold.

Yeah as well get gold. I said all time as someone over thirty five, whose your broken mars? U B S Y, how much gold? No three four percent.

How much big? Oh my god, zero pony, having heard that Peter shift guy, I often use defi. What the hell? D I ask anyone under thirty five whose your broker? What we mean? What's what's a broken?

I mean, I got a problem account. I got, oh my god, boma rocks zero. Have to that Peter shift guy, how is big going? Have I? I, I want talk about IT.

Why not? So I can really big porter of network. I'm kind of embarrassing how often you defy every day.

So the digital divide is real. yeah. And so what what what is likely to happen is a these other etf will get approved. But the the people who have the wealth, right, the boomers and the bombers have thirty nine trillion dollars of wealth, which is all gonna to your right. It's all gonna to the echo bombers and the and the genes.

When we all pass, rogan pass and it's gonna to you and you're not gonna leave IT in stocks and bonds and currency is not it's gonna convert. So that would be a big, a big upward move. But but in the short run, my dad right this is the front end of of the the boomers and i'm the tail and the boomers um he didn't care about at the time and he didn't care about salon and he didn't care about swe didn't care about transaction speed and all he wants is digital goal.

I get that. I like that. Okay yeah um so I don't think there's the natural demand for these other things.

And the people who do understand this, there are a lot of money. I mean, some of made good money. Don't get me wrong there.

Some people made a lot, a lot of money but on average, no kid coming out of college with dead you know first job. They don't have a tony money and so yes, they will speculate in these etf because they can buy in a Robin hood count. Um I don't have to worry about keys and i'll like stuff, but I I just don't think there's the same type of institutional demand.

Now if we solved the argument between theory um sonus we and and a handful of others of of lange as to which one truly is the best smart contract platform. That one I think could could get some some winning because. Smart contracts are going to rule the future yeah ability to hard code criteria ia for payments, for transfers, for conversions of bonds into equity, brought kinds of financial services.

Uh, I use the simple example, you know, you know, make a bet about a football game this weekend and i'll always forget, right? And so you got got to track me down to get your stake, which is using what I bet and with a smart contract now games over in your pain, right? It's why, like when election polls close, we should know the winner.

None of these are going to take two week. No, no. We have a solution.

It's called blockchain. One person, one vote, right? no.

Early and often, like chicago. no. Multiple dead people voting.

no. None of this. No lost ballots in the swam. No hanging chats. One person, one vote on an I P address using a personal identifier linked to a blockchain. We can solve all of the voter allegations tomorrow, like literally tomorrow.

But there they mean the people in power not going to do that, because one way to stay in power is to manipulate the vote and that that is all the time. And that's both sides, right? I also complained about the republicans rid in the election.

Now I complain about the democrats because it's just in and out. In fact, I will argue there are no, no democrats are republic. There's no left and right.

There's in and out. And when you're in, you do or say whatever IT takes to stay in. Yeah, power is good.

When you're out, you do or say whatever IT takes to get in. Take D, J, T, lifelong democrat hung g, out with many of the people were all demonizing, right? yeah.

And now is the safety of the republicans. That was wrong. I was wrong.

Reagan, life on democrats and is like, I can witness democrat. I can use republican. okay? I'm republican now. So it's in and out. And once you're in, people change and power no absolute wer cropp absolutely and powers a drug and all that good stuff. But um so I can't .

wait till we get a voting on block train and even campaign finance because now the system as is right now, as you're saying, it's it's not sustainable and people getting frustrated. Why are these people are doing know thinking of us? Well, they're thinking totally broken.

Let's let's talk about this warm right IT cost one hundred million dollars to become a senator john deeper way more qualified to be senator in mashups than the alisa ah for a lots of different reasons mean the guy's amazing, doesn't have a hundred million dollars, mean he's done fine but doesn't have a hundred million dollars make women had IT SHE tried SHE lost, spent hundred three million dollars of our own money.

Um so the averages person running for senate has to raise the money. If you raise a hundred million dollars from other people, you owe them. And i'm sorry if you are the most moral person in the world, yeah you owe them and you will do things and sad to say, you will do things that you have to do because you're told, I maybe this money you must do this.

And miss warn has been botton paid for forever, right? SHE didn't have a hundred million dollars now. She's gotten super rich while she's been in office. But SHE did not have one hundred million dollars I although A O C had negative network when he got elected like literally negative nine thousand doll nett ork.

Now she's worth I whatever thirteen million dollars now that's not all the money in the world but so more than negative thousand yeah um where that come from not from her salary. So the and you know my my favorite know the world's greatest day traders. Ny glossy I think I like I was amazing SHE got asked live .

oh my god .

SHE was he was boating on this bill as the head of the finance um IT was gonna if if the past IT basically a cut vises value and half. And if IT didn't pass, he was probably going to grow up a lot because you know people was now the risk and clearly he was going to vote bit not to pass and the person, you know, do you think it's OK for you to manipulate the vote on the company where you and your husband or major shareholder? absolutely. That's part of .

my compensation.

I like my one to explode my, but I was like OK damn straight for being truthful. I mean, I give you some props for that. I mean, I think you're evil, but but are you perhaps for that? And wow.

And now on the flip side, she's actually a really effective senator. She's done some really amazing things. So it's not that i'm a hater completely.

I hate that. I hate that part of IT. But you know, miss one has never got to bill past one. You mean, how are you impossible like you put your name on enough bills, one of them somewhere should the past, just by luck. But you got got to be talented to go over.

It's it's crazy, mark. And and at least to your point, we have the solution. We have the technology. Maybe it's the generational shift I need to take place through for this.

It's common. Look, it's all common and I get IT people in power like to be empower and so they're not gonna do or support anything that takes them out of power or loosen their their clutch on the power. And so no, no campaign for answer form unless you know the Young people figure and I you know something I love is there was a great video and IT wasn't this election is the last election um of job and thirty five yelling like literally yelling at the congressman and senators on the floor but how was time to pass the torch from you old to us Young people .

wow and then you .

get at this, you know eighty seven year old running and I have you wash your own video yeah I do. Deep body chat is way Better than you on every level. He's a rose scholar.

He's super smart. He's super talented. Way Better. And he won ira and was about to debate big joe.

And that is like, oh, I retire. What what? Why are you retire? Well, someone told me to retire. So I, I, I get IT right.

I I understand why they went that way, but I, I, I, I am faber gassed by one how orchestrated IT is um and to how in effective IT is. But if your goal is not to be effective, if your goal is to preserve the wealth at the top, actually pretty effective at that. So and okay, just I wash. I was on a long flight home from to by the other day and I decided to case time to watch napoli and you great acting and a great story um but but truly truly dazzling to watch humans rise up knowing that a whole bunch here we're going to die like literally and IT so I like protesting and and you will get put in hand cups and card after jail and now these people literally with with big pitch workers and and and died. So I mean that and i'm not calling for revolution and i'm not calling for for civil war, but i'm saying, you know that does come a point at which uh we we need to form change and I think we're there and and I think we have a good shot um through non violent means um you know vote with the the pen last week um germany but .

big one ah and and to .

up out right and and that's that's that's how I do right my my my peaceful protest is I have ever increasing amount of my network in this you know thing that that is immune as a biog chemistry guide. That's my thing. I am immune from the the virus that has infected that whole system.

And and and I have hate americans. What you don't hate amErica at all, right? I'm superpests IT. What I hate is the configure of wells through the stealth tax of inflation and the in pageant of people's, you know, rights and privileges right lad I think they deserve and um just for the benefit power. So uh and I think the way to fix all of that is through free and open and fair elections and free speech and all that good does so um and and for the most part we have most of IT every now then you get trapped on i'm still in twitter jail and if if elan is watching the show I know um I have been in twitter jail for two years I bet one hundred and fifty five thousand four hundred followers for two years the exact same number some days that goes up one or two some day good that but I have the same time for two years because I liked some stuff that know the the police before he came in and fired everybody um didn't like right I I was against the forced vaccination. I was against you know some of the political leanings and and now i'm fault I guess because I you know in an open forum you know voted with my with my like um but someday i'll get out of twitter jail but it's kind of funny wow .

um I know I kept over time I I question about Morgan crew capital holding H I know um last time we spoke big coin alona a vx have you added anything else like swear so forth?

Uh we are we are actively looking at swe. Um we we looked at a long now a long time, we look at a while ago, we should pull the trigger, but we didn't um so bad on us. Um we what else we we got a couple things.

We have a little little tiny, tiny position in a alternative decks called uh orka. Um that one has worked out. We we made an investment couple years ago and some called one inch a dex.

Dex is yeah and that just hasn't gone the way we we would like IT to go. Um we haven't sold any more slone's, so there's information content in that we bought any anymore. We sold any V L V or big investors will some called figure。 And so we just invested in province ed labs, which has the hash token.

Um so a little something off the side. They're trying to create no token sation platform for real assets. Um probably missing something that that's about IT .

do anything with stable .

points that seem lots of stuff. A couple companies that help other companies create stable coins. We've invested in a handful companies that are using stable coin rails to allow our minds.

We did really cool thing with some called outlier ventures where we sponsored and beter um and we got you know few hundred applications. We narrowed down to a dozen and then we had a bake off and we backed five startups moked and is all focus in that america. And you know if we want to brazil, china, mexico, maybe else seven or or columbia camera with the last one um but really cool.

Um a lot of that has to do with stable coin rails. Try to a real interesting company uh actually yesterday that trying to build out in an institutional version of money transmitter business, IT is most of of like bit so in and the big new that amErica and exchanges, you know, mostly individuals, you know ten x year hundred box there, thousand bucks. What you what you really need to help are, you know all the giggling tic corporations that are moving Operations to that amErica to move stuff into the U S.

For the nearing mean that hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars of uh capital that could be much Better um deployed on stable points. So I think that's A A big opportunity. I mean, stable coins are going to replace swift now swift doesn't like that.

And and the problem is that if stable points replace swift, then the U. S. Government can't sanctions people me because they hate to all who gets access to the stable coin.

So um yes, probably not a surprise that the brick have announced state big program for creating stable coin transactions up to thirty two members. Now you know from original five and you know some point you can ignore the the vast majority people on the planet. So I think that's pretty cool.

So mark, uh on the note.

uh and this is .

a hard question, is the U S. Dollar, uh world currency reserves that is at risk here with .

it's at risk, but it's it's at risk over time. So the same way that took thirty one years for the pound stirling to finally seed hour to the dollar maybe doesn't take thirty one years, maybe takes twenty years or twenty and say take twenty one IT takes twenty one years to get the big uh to keep on the twenty one uh theme um and maybe where you know five eight years into that maybe third of the way through um or or or do you feel that if the united tes gets .

stable coin legislation soon and they are backing like circle and and the other issue is like paypal and so forth, these stable coins are able to make IT into other parts where people want the united dollars.

If they could help combat that, that would absolutely slow that process down. But I think their arrogance is you they're going to say what we want our own CBDC. No, no, no, you don't get control of my money. No, you should participate in a stable coin where your worthless fight back s that stable coin and then there will be demand for your bonds which no one else wants to buy you know tellers now the third largest owner or U S.

Treasures in the world crazy um so yes, they could adopt that to your point to great your great point, will they? Probably not now and maybe because the one thing I am certain, my wife, my I said my wife, I seem to speak one time and the other talk he says, no, mark, you can say things like that, but what I say so, no, no, not what you said, how you say, like what you think this will you say things so forcefully? What's wrong with that? Is what people believe you.

What kind of the idea is? what? What you're wrong, wrong all the time. I just change my mind. So I am not certain about a lot of things.

Mean, he would remind me that i'm frequently wrong, never that so occasionally wrong, never double. I am occasional um hopefully that frequently, but I am occasionally on. But I changed my mind and I don't think that I weakness and that I think actually a strength.

So the the ultimate um the ultimate issue here is for the dollar to maintain you know it's hygienic uh reserve status IT would have to be superior as a store of value to the alternative right? And I will argue IT IT doesn't have that nature because of of the fact that you can you can print more of IT. So ultimately I think I think we we transition away from uh that dollar hegemony.

But but I just think IT takes time. And and and I think you will be incremental, right? It'll be no certain companies adopted. Certain companies say, okay, that worked.

Now the fact that microsoft shareholders got to vote on whether they should not be going on their baLance is kind of interesting, right? Yeah yeah. Uh markets.

things. So IT seems to be changing at a rapid pace. It's speeding up with all these technologies, blocker encysted AI. And I wonder you, your granddaughter, my daughter, six years old, the world they live and will .

be so different and hopefully so different. But that's why you know, uh people like yourself who who continually put out a stream of of of good information and thoughtful dialogue, debate and search the truth because that's ultimately what this is about uh so uh, listeners are grateful for that. I'm grateful to be to be a part of IT and if IT will be fun to come back kind of post election and and do a analysis of of where we are for for the new year.

let's do that one hundred thousand.

I think that we, all right, do a celebration.

Thank you. Much appreciated.