Will Bitcoin Correct or Keep Climbing? | Crypto Town Hall
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We got off Jesse sweet elevator music so we can have a conversation here about eighty three k all day, about eighty three thousand, three hundred and seven dollars and ninety four cents as i'm get IT on my screen. Absolute rocket ship at the moment while uh, bitcoin obviously broke out from a new all time high on uh, wednesday of last week or actually, yes, technically I was wednesday.

I started tuesday night as the election results were coming in and that has been effectively up only since that point trading right now in the new all time high and at a record high, pushing a new high every um basically been in the order book a sounding twice action. Seemingly surprising a lot of people but I think if you've been here, uh a lot of us, certainly I I personally uh don't call out on limbs very often with predictions. But in march I was extremely vocal that I thought, uh, two things, one that that was the high and I was gonna be six, seven, eight months before we started to see bitcoin break out again.

That's the Normal. Having cycles is about six months after the having that's when you see big coin break out. Uh and the other one was that all coins wouldn't move until doge coin started uh, making headlines because in my opinion, this is the asset that most people are actually underwater on and that probably caused them the most frustration and cypher and a natural of human nature that when you take a look, your portfolio after a few months and all the sudden you're making money again or things are bounding, that you start to get excited about the asset class again.

So I think things right now lying up really well, not only forbid going to continue up, up before consolidating, but also for the all season I can get many people have been waiting for, for a very long time. I think we get into the new answer of what that you could continually look like in in the future. Needed this to say in the time i've been talking, they point up another two hundred, three hundred box is still pushing.

And I think many belive obviously, that this is skill on the back of the trump ict rate, 啊， of the track trade and the idea that is going to be an absolute uh gript o code chela, free for all in the united states for the next at least year and a half before we go back into election. Cy, then we got robby here. Robbie gotta, feel good. Obviously, you guys are heavily suppose across the alcove sector and not only finally see sort of big coin breaking out, but to see this, I think renewed interest volume, a new people coming in for the first time out arguing quite a while 啊 to be you know various sort of a all coin utility token layer ones and even across the board to some you know smaller projects。

Yeah no, I would completely agree with that. And I think as you know you know bit point is kind of our arma economic indicator for which to be generally so when the Price of this point is really well, everything um kind of draft a senate demand. I was I literally just stepped out of a institutional crp to lunch um and now everybody is quite polish across the sector, not just for this kind maxi, obviously, but you know I X in the application their folks I am just to say this one .

more time because so I just find IT a start like you could have looked at a chart of almost any crypto asset, including primarily bitcoin, and ignored every macro economic indicator election you know a stimulus follow IT. And it's all just following the exact time for your cycle that always has the past, the really almost like to the week or day, uh, it's coming for how much time we've spent discussing things that seemingly just play out over and over again in the same manner. And this is exactly when all coin should start to move, with twenty twenty five sort of being a big, I rabi have got to think that you guys are very excited to see what comes in the next six to seven months ahead of sort of next summer when we get the doldrums again.

Not sure if I heard a joo obviously like you please I go rother please, then go rother than .

hundred percent. And I think the most important ant thing now is just, you know.

Robby have in trouble here and you are going to go ahead and when you get a Better connection but you go head .

couldn't just got yeah no, you know i'm not worried about all the etf. I'm not worried about Michael sailor buying the top forever with billions of dollars of I not worried about the seventy five percent of congress, including the president of united states, being orange build.

I'm really looking for big going to fill that forty eight thousand cm e gap that that we got from a okay um it's incredible when when you line up everything right now, it's like in a way you're almost a little just like speechless, right? Like we are sitting at a complete paradise shift in the way that people are thinking about the asset class. And just just like you said in in the opening here, you know bitcoin needed to run.

We needed to see, you know like maybe something like a doge coin or some the other layer ones make these really big moves upwards. Those going up one hundred percent in the last week, ninety five percent, right? Like these are pretty sizable moves, you know and those coins are twenty billion dollar asset or i'm sorry, it's a forty four billion dollar asset now again.

So moving up from twenty, these are not small numbers. You know there was a opposed today IT was I think he was someone from like bear or someone that I get more traditional y that was out there talking about. You know, like is this just still a number go up technology, right? And you still have that you have millions of people that are out there that have real capital that are going to be reintroduced to bitcoin again at the top right.

And they're barely looking at IT right now at eighty three five, right? And it's coming back and these people still think it's for for drugs. You know, like ross, all work is gonna be out of jail by the time they're like this still for drugs they know they got it's just like fifteen years later, you know by the time they're looking at this thing again. And so they set up unbelievable. Um and so I would say if if you're out there in your builder or your investor, you know your chip should be where they lay and you know just put your head down and go back to building and try to make as much money as humanly possible in this time period and you know come back to this show every day for the next year and a half and and when we start to kind of say it's over, it's probably over .

feels like time to turn your brain off, right? And I think a lot of the little doubt that we would sort of get that moment.

That said.

I think, listen, there all seasoning that the past is like really couldn't miss like everything one up no matter what. I do think that a lot of things at lunch like last just completely dead yeah talking about larger I not talking about larger together ever.

But I mean, first of all, like for you in six million, meanwhile in in a month, I think which was the case last April, yeah the badge in ninety nine, eight, nine, nine, infinite, nine, the line over IT. You'll never have heard of those again already and are never coming back. But I do think that maybe in this cycle, there will be winners or narratives will play heavier than they did in the past.

Yeah you know I think your brand we're here. You know he'd probably say like pick your winners and losers. You know it's like you are probably you know i'm probably buying a salona.

I might be selling a phantom, right? Like, you know, outside of Polly market, unite probably be buying a stacks and selling a polygon, right? Like these are some of the things where you do have to kind of pick your winners in your losers here.

And if you are holding on to and all coin, you know, that hasn't moved a sizable amount up with the market in this last week or so IT, IT probably means that it's going to be a lagged and people have a tendency to kind of hold on to their bags when they're down. And they, you know, they want to hold their losers and they want to sell their winners. That should be the exact opposite.

You should be selling your losers and doubling downer your winners bitcoins. A good example of that where i'm sure a lot of people think you know eighty three is is too high and I don't want to buy that again. It's like what like we're going to a million um and and whether not you you know that's happening in this cycle or the next cycle is happening. So you should probably be, you know, selling your elisabeth horn n and you know buds more bitcoin.

God, I love that you brought that that never I mention in horn in a while. But man, that that those those are special days. 我没有 moment， really a moment. I.

Bro, quick comments um uh extremely excited about where this market is going. Obviously something I think a lot of people in this room have been waiting for for for some time. Um you know getting back to two thousand and seventy.

No, I I don't think I could possibly be more bullish on the future of bitcoin. I think that was mentioned by joe that you know you have this very I would say almost a majority of members of congress who are extremely project coin. You obviously have a president now who's very prospect coin and you have nation states jumping into this game.

Um you also have a lot of action taking place here in the U S. When IT comes to policy, uh, people should uh increase their abolition. In my opinion, this market is just getting heated up and there's a lot of a lot of room to move, especially with the support that we have now in the legislative in the policy front.

And there will be some very big news. I I do have something in the in the cooking, in the kitchen, so to speak. Scot, you know me well.

I am always trying to work on something, so I always have a bunch of different plates. Spending a bunch of items in the fire to be able to present to the good big corners in this space will make progress. Three, on the legislative front um some major news is likely to break on wednesday, maybe thursday going to be to be U. S.

user. We're starting to hear about obviously maybe a cut, a cut T R, where you in the united states, you can ounce IT wrong. But um you know here in that they could be buying were hearing a lot of rumors or of nation state addition, right I think in ninety year old saudi arabia cleric, uh you know fat while saying bitcoin is you know uh chose wrong term logic, but basically are seeing a lot of action also in the middle.

Yeah definitely. I mean, I think the the the news that's going to be breaking this week is um I don't think I know um i'm working on IT specifically with a lawmaker and it's going to be coming out on wednesday, maybe thursday at the latest and it'll be some typical news that advance what we are working on here in the united states. Um I think that on top of that, there is definitely going to be some nation state news.

I personally aware of nation state news, which I can't share. I was recently in an undisclosed location on late last month and early this month, and i've have been working diligently to be able to help move this forward. I think that big coin is certainly something that is going to be winning in the united states.

But I also know that big one is a global movement. And we need to be making sure that we do everything possible in the political space to ensure that some of these countries, especially those in the global south, really do benefit from the technology. So major, I I think it's just going to be honestly between now and mid twenty twenty five, just onna have back to back to back like major news when he comes to government adoption in the united states and also uh abroad internationally as well.

And um i'm actually jumping off here. I that's why I wanted to just save if your words gotten preciate, you let me jumping and I got to go with another lawmaker and another part of the world who is very interested in and pushing forward to make sure that his country can adopt bitcoin as well. I mean, I honestly um I don't know what I was other than just maybe the election, but things have certainly changed.

A demo ensuing for our policy work at a total action has never been more intense. Um we're getting constant in down now for the lawmaker is not only in the U. S. For all over the world.

I mean, got our stamp of approval, right? I mean, there is zero fear of poor legislation. Maybe i'll get IT, but or uncertainly not of regulators at at this point when you when you even have john read stark because I going to show all the time is a huge obviously crypto skeptic twenty years or more at the S C C.

Obviously, uh, during enforcement action, effectively thought that a crypto the and when you have him coming out saying, listen, the people have spoken ah they need, I need, stand its cruciate against script again in what he needs to resign. I think you said, you know, uh, up only to the moon, sort ever to the moon. I, yes, there's something like that.

But I mean, you know that these are smart people who understand that the environment has changed regardless of their personal feelings. Well, we have a year and a half year, depending on, I guess, what happens in the next midterm election where cyp du and bitcoin get to prove their worth in the united states, basically unrestricted, right? Absolutely a huge champ .

of huge shaming of approval. You know, not only I think the a lot of people are looking at at that, you know there's this truck Victory, which is certainly is a big samp of approval, but the even bigger sap of approval is the fact that berny marino was able to knock out Sherry Brown, who's who is the head of senate banking in ohio. That was the pivotal race where we were putting all of our all of our chips on the table.

We went all in as an industry to see if we could take out one of the most powerful anti bitcoin members of congress, and we were able to win and win big, uh, that has sent shock ways to washington, d people are paying attention and they are realizing that you should not stand in the way of bitcoin. And and really, honestly clipped or rit large or your entire political career can be at rest. Now to one thing to take out, a representative big are elected every two years.

IT is entirely a totally different thing for a member of the senate to be, and not only the a member of the senate, a leader in the senate, to be completely removed and taken out by a single industry this way. I've haven't seen anything like this in my entire political career, really in my entire life ah. And so now this is going to encourage lawmakers at large understand that, well, hey, if I support this industry, I can get two hundred million dollars put into my race.

Not might come saying on a big fan of big money in politics, but this is the state of the world that we live in. And now they are saying, all, well, if I support crp du in bitcoin, I can get two hundred million dollars put in my race, but if I oppose IT, I can also have two hundred million dollars put in against me that's a hundred million dollars spread at people in the senator smart. And I think they're going to start paying a lot more attention .

to how they can support the industry. I love that they still supportive now, right when they like IT or not, they have to be politician to get up. Border else are going to lose. That's exactly where we want position.

Thanks you. Let me china. Scott h, yeah, i'll talks in .

alex and lawyer as we had you guys chewed up before them jump ed to .

the others that so yeah, all, all, all just hit a couple like a little post. Someone definitely agree. Rotate out of joe boat in coin, back in the bit coin. That's that's definitely, I think, perform Better for you over the next little bit. I think more generally though, um when I hear a lot to talk about like hot coin ins and what's going to go there IT IT feels very much like fighting the last war mentality to me.

There will always be a substantial out coin market because people are going to be looking for where there is higher you know new higher multiplicity upside uh, on the thing they're buying into then the established stuff, right? Even in a like very bulky scenario. Big coin has text x in a you know, this cycle, if you really think it's going to a million of my thing is pretty more than the two to three exchanges.

But like there are people who are gonna want those twenty, thirty, forty, fifty X A cemex c upsides. And so that there is always going to be people chasing uh, some form the old coin thing. I think they'll still see greater bitcoin dominance at fifty percent or higher, but there will be something no, I don't know what the old coin battles going to be exactly, but I think theyll be something there on IT. Um and then yeah on the political front, I think the one thing that i'm looking at right now is when we actually start getting material announcement here, I think what Dennis hit on is like definitely true in terms of and actually more so than like the marino uh race. It's just simply affected every single downtown let race where crypto fifty.

fifty four, eighty and eighty four I don't want but I was something like where a cypher money went in IT was a hundred percent hitt rate until a few of the late uh, decisions were made but I think there are only four where they .

yeah it's something at the third like ninety ninety five percent yeah and and fair shake one almost alone uh I you know and I give a huge shadow to the fair shake team for finding both democrats and republicans. I have obviously talked on the show over and over again how important this is to make crypt D O A non partisan issue, even if IT is a political issue.

And the fair shake team, I think they had a great job finding candidates on both sides of the aisle that they could uh support and IT just showed like to all basically all of their candidates one and so I think even more than like, yes, okay, trump spoker do or whatever we'll get about I said I think of anyone who was kind of on the fence about group to um and looks like maybe all oppose IT is just like there's just no upside for them. And I don't think it's just because like hey, they're be money in the race against me. It's because IT really did show that like the american people don't care about this is an issue do don't care about that the issue of wanting a and they do not want congress spending their time trying to block cyp do or bandit or anything like that.

And so I think that that is going to be the fundamentalist biggest deal here. Um I think what we're singing now on the Price action is it's very speculative. Um not that is not supported by where I think ultimately everything is going.

But I think if we don't start seeing actual announcements of things, then like you know, I think will run these levels for a little bit and then they'll drop back down until something does. But I think if there really are major announces that come out in the next week or, or two, especially because just. In the car that has been you not always the case where stuff actually gets backed up by actions or reality on IT. But if we see actual major announcements, if we see an actual move, we're like sensor steps back or where we get told who is going to be in what roles and it's looking very poked to there, then we really are looking at like the moon is the limit situation and you very quickly need be breaking out well over a hundred the next couple a week. I look forward .

to the time when we back test the previous all time. I have seventy four thousand and people depressed because it's coming right when we have dropped from a level and they can leave the day coins back to seventy five thousand lawyers. good. Yeah.

I was just say very quick. I A friend, text me this. He text to me on saturday, said, what should I be buying on cyp and I give him a less and he was like, yeah, I guess I missed everything. Here I text him again this morning. I like, you do know you're not too late now .

I go go after IT up a thousand dollars and eighty four thousand hundred. good.

yeah. I mean, so my main points already, sort of the mayor is worth repeating, which is that if your favorite bags, your favorite all coin, is not hatching a bit right now, discovered of IT and find something that is even if you're waiting for a tip or buying, I like there's no reason that an old coin tion catch a bit right now.

But something else i've been thinking for a macro level is that I think what we should be expecting with a trump win like, I don't know if you guys saw the eyes guy, the trumps new ice guy that that got on this T. V, and he was like, fuck your family. Get any here like, I think the new virtue signaling is going to be away from that sort of like suicide empathy and more towards um you excEllence at all costs.

And so if you can imagine amErica where there are no longer balancing that and pushing for excEllence, it's great. It's going to look like an elon world and a lot of companies are going to do very well. But with that version signal, you may see a lot of anyone who relies on a bailout, anyone who relied on the sort of markey nature of the financial world, bite in lot of trouble.

And some of this may sort of bleed the script, but I do, I think, you know, they may let things get destroy, not necessarily in the name of anything else, but these new sort ships lists of you. We don't care what you excEllent circuit be on. So I don't know what that means, but I think IT is something .

to look .

at that less and science he's yeah just going to hold up on the you mentioned about oh.

can you have done yeah I was just say, I said doug and go head and jack, go head head of japan after you right?

Okay yeah I was just gonna k about you. You mention that had been classified as coal was speculated the next country and curious obvious ly two days and but in a the muslim faith being actually uh classified as hello is actually a really big deal because one of the bigger problems in islamic finance is that this bill upon a traditional central banking system, and then the bank is IT underneath IT a all fractional reserve, which means that ribber, which is a cardinal sin, is built into the financial system. So to actually get host the fact that bitcoin, now that IT is like acting like a commodity and savings vehicle because the big objection was around IT being, you know, a currency for gambling and whether IT didn't mean any of those criterial. But if we as we as this starts to be classified more in line with the savings vehicle or commodities vehicle, and that actually solves one of the biggest problems in islamic cline ads.

And so um if we start to see now a nation state, uh whether IT be sara, whether IT be katari, whether IT be U A E um who have all made moves, whether to be on the mining side or supporting the ecosystem and industry, none that is fact into the Price is is a big market for new financial system to be built upon and also the conflicts that we're starting to finally see, uh, where people can see the power struggle between the fed and um and congress and the at the trumpet administration um I think it's onna be really highlights there may be a plan from the fed lower rates and high rates in order to create some kindness sabotage around the trumpet administration that we started to see those are types of tip attacks and arguments around who controls the board and um you know um during power coming out so you can change well there is actually in the fed bill. There is actually a bitcoin strategic reserves. There is actually a bunch of states that are looking at building this strategic reserves and the opportunity to actually start issuing uh, money in a different way to the federal reserve system. As the argument emerges, a may need to some of the real big games and the real big differences the bitcoin can make in the financial system into the future. Um so I just wanted to put out there that there are much, much bigger things to still think about that on fact, IT into the Price of bitcoin .

that this yeah, I had a really .

great conversation with Samson now, who obviously runs jane three. And when we talk about nation states, he seems to be right next the button. I did this on a podcast, old men, you money and it's all it's all out there. But the reality is, you know, every once been waiting out, certainly the western stakes are western countries have been waiting for the united states to a night of big on reserve.

And IT seems like they're of got their finger on the buy button, waiting for or over the by, but and waiting for the united states to announce that i'm what we're seeing right now is possibly front running of the U. S. Announce that.

And that's why you see the the large gap up moves over this weekend is that there are some nation states are actually getting involved now, but they're not announcing IT because as soon as you announce that the Price is going to go against you. And so I think that you know who writes the biggest ticket well as nation states. And it's exciting for individuals to buy, and it's exciting for and microstrip gy to buy and maybe even microsoft after the vote.

But you know is apple gonna buy, is birds you're gonna buy. But certainly, there seems to be a lot of excited on the nation's state level. And Samson had some really good comments on IT.

I'm definitely putting bilch a half a way and likely, probably about that. If that happens, I sell everything actually because I could be the ultimate top single is one warm and buffet and Peter shift have launched together in ove, decided by big that IT maybe the the dead top dave and time yeah .

I think that that if you look at IT from a trading perspective, being putting them on your baLance sheet, it's literally the opposite. I think of well, I matter of this what you meant, but I think it's the opposite. I E you now you buy IT first, then you announced IT and then IT goes up, so goes in your favor.

But if you announce IT before you're done, the Price runs away to you and it's much more expensive. And that's the kind of game theory that's going on here. Simon mentioned something that that is absolutely important that he has got mentioned on our show this morning that you you're seeing fat was written talking about bitcoin from intel denial mum clerics that matters uh throughout middest funny.

And when you consider everything that's gone on, I understand that the origin and the reason the dollar is where IT is today is because the petro dollar so that to not under understand how important that could be as a big deal. Now if you're in the U. S.

Administration, on the other hand, uh, they obviously can't do anything until they become they get into power. But the notion of of buying bitcoin becomes a very interesting trade. Uh because you know as soon as they do IT and people know they're doing IT IT, the Price goes ridiculous.

And it's really important to contextualized this move for bitcoin. IT still is, although the bitcoin gold ratio know we talk about this morning. And my expectation is that this this cycles move might not be over until bitcoin is higher, uh, meaning that IT starts to at least getting to half of golds value, a quarter of gold value right now.

It's not even close. And so understanding and contextualized that is, is a very big deal that as far as all coins are concern, what you have is people taking profits from bacon, employing them in looking for that fifty x. And I don't want to go on max guys are saying that everything they go to zero against big coin because I don't believe that, but I do believe that it's it's important not to take IT for granted that something that's a ten billion dollar asset because he always has been all all on stage under this new administration.

What will end up happening is the week will get separated from the chef. You will see real economic value being able to be passed on to token holders. And that has some very major implications, mostly good.

But there are some coins out. There are some token projects structured where token holders is literally are just bad holder. They literally get nothing. And I think those are going to start trending downwards uh, over the next year, four years. In the short run, yeah, they're going to go up just like everything else is going up. It's force of nature and liquidity that trust but understand that the sea change that happened is a uh legitimatized of the the entire crypto o echo system, the good parts of IT and people who want to restrain some of those those features of the system that nobody in this in this world space particularly cares about. What wants to .

have happened to tom time. Yes.

we can pontificate about nation's state adoption, but I think really simply, everyone has caught sides. Some of and you very seventeen percent look, the emails we've seen from uh you know traditional allocators and r as their clients that were putting in one percent to three percent position of big coin in your year. Uh, your allocation on monday, if if you don't respond to us, you there's just a huge appetite when you know Price a narrative falls Price and we're seeing that immediately ambit coin, particularly on e.

So uh, you seen this this kind of rotation back and eat, which is really interesting and is primarily because of eat was the short leg of a ton of trade looking at like open interest data, futures data, a lot of stuff that you would say, you know, people trying to put on A. And get some more leverage. Open interest on eat is actually higher now than IT was when eat was at three point nine k earlier this year. So the grab for upside and eat this and north um and you also finally have some positive etf inflows there. So I think all coins, but coins going to do fantastic, but you're going to see the majors do really, really well as well, particularly to get .

someone offered me a bit recently, I think joe, off a model and twitter and I actually, D M, D. I just think he's seen a bit. I would take a take each was that basically point o three six point of three seven versus bitcoin and IT was basically equal money for a single bitcoin that uh if without perform for the cycle.

So the art part was the nuance of defining what the cycle was. And of course, I don't want to make that trade publicly because people think i'm not not a bit corner and there going to like a sacrifice me to the uh SHE point gods or whatever. But um now i'm putting my money on something for the next six to nine months, maybe even a year, and then rotating that into bitcoin to the point of the backsides ever to go to zero.

I would take the eve out performing from that level trade over the next year, and I think it's nothing close. But you know i've been early on even in that regard anyway. I mean, time, what would do you think of a trade from that, say, one year from now to november?

I think it's actually great, though I do think he forms just .

because it's there. Your life is really much.

Now I .

can't hear at all. So would you take that trade while he fixes mike?

What was a question .

basically a year from now, whether the each victim ratio will be higher or but they're even more performed because we call IT six months, I was actually would take IT on six months as well. I wanted going before next summer. But h, which one do you think will help perform from here from point or three, six?

So it's so tough, you know I I if .

you say two years and I no question .

yeah if you know the way I kind of think of the theory um is all of the different three or two is in different chains that are constantly, you know reinterpreting with a thereon. You know if you go to base, you know if you go to polygon, you go to another chain that you you do tend to kind of find your way back to eat a lot of times.

You know you're depending on the activity that you're you're trying to transact and you know it's it's they're still so much value. There are this latest move here. Look at this move wasn't so um obvious that just happened. And I would say i'm kind of a bitcoin. But I mean like in a weird way, the market looks at market cap as like what is like what can grow and what is like the worth here.

And you know if if bitcoins truly a five to a ten trillion dollar asset, like where does that put thea? It's just a numbers game when IT comes to, you know the percentages can be higher, right? Like bitcoin, you know ultimately, like there is just a cap that things could grow into. It's the same reason that people can't chase memes and everything else. And like at a certain level, like I think a theory um could potentially out perform just because there's that mentality in the market of like oh, the market caps only three hundred and eighty eight billion like there are not three ninety start popped but like IT can move up more.

Yeah, sorry, just get in myself in order here. Dave， you haven't really a commented as of yet. I would actually be curious as to your thoughts on that. Now you clean heavy to get going, but from here, do you think eat or big going out, perform in the next six months?

I hate six. I am alone. I think big. Can you like?

Can you not hear me? I said years, the job. But yes, we both agree. Wear which one wins in ten?

Yeah, I know. I look, the the easy arraid is gonna play out based upon something that and we had originally thought, which is lots of etf sales people, that is clearly a commodity and IT hasn't advantage he lost that advantage over salona and all the other layer ones uh, with a trm Victory. I mean, yeah they have IT for a little bit of time, but they say wasting asset because Frankly, every one of these assets is going to be become investible.

And therefore, the investigation aspect of this is definitely lower. Now that said, IT has a huge advantage in a trumps administration, which is that the financial large financial players, the Frankland temple, tons of the world, the fidelities of the world, that all announced projects based upon this. So the demand for etho go up.

See of those two cross currents. I guess I come down on really trying to understand where the real demand drivers is going to come in. And I think that the excitement over that will probably cause a short term rally in eth and that the the cellars that the supply just isn't there. So I think you could have a short term out performance. But in the long run, I think IT equalizes as projects move to other chains that be that gain their investigation over time.

So very good. Yeah, to be clear, like I was treating the bed strictly in the trade with the very .

clear point that i'd want thing. First of all, the downside of bitcoin is is dramatically lower. Uh, I think that it's a reach escape velocity and do not under.

i'm.

Sorry, me, I, I, I, I don't underestimate Dennis work on getting states and and sovereign bitcoin those every time that happens. That's like another stair step up that is is literally just a shift in the banker, meaning that IT means higher highs also highlows. I don't see any of that on a serum and that that is the one thing to keep in mind.

So IT really depends on your macro o walli of you think we are in a bull market for the next six months, that I think you're right if you think that they are going to be interesting cross currents that are going on, uh, then you may be wrong. So it's really there. There are probably ways to structure derivative around that, that are fascinating. Uh, I don't want to demand t into IT, but I do think that those of the considerations one has .

to have rather than Simon.

Spirit in a rap, if you are talking, can you guys say rabbit, because I cannot put out if you can okay rabba, I think a sometings going on with your mike. So, uh, maybe i'll bring you i'll not job and bring you back, bring you back up closure, exact entirely, and come back on the best way to try to fix the gredge.

Yeah, no, I do think that there is gonna be a story for a theory. I think salona is too centralized to silicon valley to connected to all this downtime. Now let's rely upon the developers to fix IT. Um and I think bitcoin is not at this stage gonna the chain that they are gona try and build or cogan ization on.

So I do think as we get more and more strategic reserves, as we get more and more people that are in the bitcoin story, um I think there is going to be a big traditional finance play for toga ization. Now they're i've been going to do IT in two way. They are going na try and do their own like distributed leger technology and control the ecosystem or they're gonna do IT most likely upon the syrian.

Um and I think the play is that they're waiting for the custodian to be bank of bank york melon for the E T S. Uh and then they can take a lot of the the the volume away from coin base. They can get more and more in the etf and then they approve staking into the trump s administration, which will then give them you know not full control where they say this is our own chain, uh this is a decentralized chain, but we controlled the stakes um and now we're gonna build our cocooning zed exchange change all of the toka ized bank deposit.

So um I still think that the theory um is in front run to take all of that volume as a play. I don't think it's ever gonna a strategic reserve acid. I think it's all about control of you know the next financial system and the next way of the financial products.

agree. I'm trying to robbie, i'm trying to add you again and i'm getting an error. So I don't really know what's going on with the the other glitches is today um dance, forget you here. Um we've obviously talk a bit about the election with you already. Anything changing in the last and I like as far as Price, we have a yeah .

hey thanks for me and guys um one thing of a couple things ah this is to be explained um after tomorrow we have the a majority leter rate which everybody twitters look after. Now obviously the whelming amount .

of our industry .

then break up as .

well right way you can step to summer with a Better signal. You guys are here that rough .

morning for actually .

I think you might be as found. But and if you can stet someone with a Better bitting on a wifi.

yeah I can I can give .

me that no Better.

Okay, I was going to say right now for the final majority real race, uh, rick got Johnson corny. Whoever wins, it's going to be good for cyp to all three of them actually are overwhelmed the support of our industry. They're got a radium. So I mean, we're going to see others shakes out, but keep your eye and that that's on wednesday and in the other big event this week as I counter fit general conference at this wednesay thursday and november thirteenth, fourteenth of miami, that would be very, very interesting to see quite a few players are speaking to that event. I think there's gonna something going out of keep your I and that went to at least for the market.

I make sense. So if what do you think the counterfeits geral and or conversation will be? Obviously for those who don't know how our who is the sea of kind of share, who famous ly out said, listen, I believe and we back them he really put that to bed but he's now, uh, one of the heads of trust transition teams will be fundamentally involved in the government and is very, very public way and head of a huge institutional oh yeah.

they so that's exactly where I was going with this. I mean, let's say he's got an enormous amount influence on the transition team right now. Whether he himself goes or not remains to be seen.

But he will be there. He's gonna providing a lot of opening. We get sailor going to be key note in the launch.

A lot of big names are going to be speaking at a very big coin, heavy. But the structure side, and I think this strategic reserve concepts going to be part of the conversation. So we will be covered in that. And I think it'll be something just to keep your iron this week that and then the center of majority leader race, they going to be pretty consequences for for the market.

Yeah uh, so exciting you you kind of summarized IT. But is of those senate majority candidates, is there one that would be a clear Victory of others?

Oh, you say brick god, overwhelming has the support of the big pointless and the crypto community. But again, all three of them are very, very supportive of our industry. They have an a rating corner at attacks.

Is phone out of a out of decoder? Uh, I have no sense that how it's gonna ll IT off. I mean, everybody wants to scot, but the secret ballot really protects a lot of these, protects everybody's identity and how they vote. Um so he seems to have most of the make mega community back in um i'd be happy with any all three that would be fine but rick got certainly things seems to have support the most big winners.

small. Just remember when rick got presided uh over the largest health care fraud settlement in united states story but hey, it's politics right? And was the least popular government.

H. C. A. And they departed medical medicine had for a felony convictions and were found one point seven billion dollars.

And then he became governor. Governor, welcome to america. I have even remembers um but yeah that's that's the guy we're supporting, I guess as well well .

you know definitely again texas corner. He's a roxi conservative to at the and he he is always been supportive a bit coin and taxes so get i'd be happy with anyone of them but I know IT IT become very, very opinionated on twitter crypt or twitter uh, i'm staying out of bit but we're not going to definitely know say.

yeah, I listen I mean, we we know that a that the environment in general has just improved massively for the space. So I think there's just a lot of new answer to who might be the leader, but that probably doesn't matter that much when everyone is so sorry over the proper coin least that's that's what i'm hoping. Then there's been the sort of light sentiment that basically we have a year and a half.

Obviously, no ID terms tend to swing back the other way of not. I know people will officering me and say, how dare you think that the democrats could ever win anything again in history? But history generally shows that you know, you get your like year and half to two years to sort of legislate uh, on your own and then they're some push back because people come back out to vote.

And so do you think that we basically have cp launch for this industry to prove itself and try almost anything in the next sort of two years? Is that the eeda correct sentiment? I may something like nothing know .

if we're going to guess something i'd done. We got to do IT in the first two years and honestly, the first hundred days would be great to come out strong and getting some of this I me maybe even in the lame dog, but definitely the first hundred days.

Are you going to be absolutely critical for market structure, for uh stable coin legislation and then for the senate confirmation rules like the confirmation of the sec chairman, confirmation of the C F C chairman. So the first you know hundred days are going to be absolutely paramount. I'm not convinced to the mid terms are going to be as bad for republicans on the senate side considering how good we did this last week, picked up a lot more seats and I think some folks expected.

So there's a cushion there. But twenty twenty six won't be a good year overall for a public in to. But I think that they still should be able to hold the majority even if it's buy a whisker in twenty twenty six based off the races. I'm looking at how is a different story. But yeah again, the first two years know especially when is I try effect like this with any party, the president has the most opportunity to get things done.

Right back up. Are you working? We try. I can't here are by rough day for the leaches here um i'm kind of reading through the a news stories here, uh and there are some that I have not reveal that catching my attention here.

According to blue berg, F, T, X has file lawsuit against as former C E O C Z seeking to recover approach image one point eight billion and funds. F G X alleges that the uns were frogeity transferred S P F and july twenty v obtained the funds by selling part of their shares and F T X and the U. S.

Division, approximately twenty percent and eighteen point four percent. Well, I am rather when they just caught my eye, because I haven't actually seen the story. I just somewhat heard the rumors about guitar and sara, but David daily, who is often on the show, obviously see a bit on magazine. One of trumps campaign pto is said at least one country has been actively buying bitcoin and is now top five holder ara.

Maybe the unnamed countries bail is referring to all he said I was not kind of ukraine united, random send send or georgia, which seem like just he threw darts at five country, uh, to see which once definitely was not, but seemed like this is really happening here, right? I mean, similia the best talk to this. We can talk about IT earlier. But I mean, IT would not surprise me now to see five, ten countries making announcements in the next six months.

Um yeah this is geopolitical game theory um you know we we manifested this into existence so let's not forget and credit to the community, which I think we've always done a bitcoin. We've been given this technology um and you know really leading up to bitcoin twenty twenty four.

And I think he is right to talk about David baby because he is his conference and um and he did manifest that and you know denis porters work and everyone in the community um you know so I do think this old strategic reserve acid was something that we said was going to exist. We played into um the needs of the U. S. Election um and then they realized that actually yes, this is a strategic block.

And IT worked from, I do believe to some degree, started his you know his allegiance with our industry, have a bit twenty twenty four and then just became the clear winner in terms of pro innovation um and you know d regulation um and so I think this is a great example of how the bitcoin use that and that setting chain of events when Michael sale presented the opportunity was clearly he was presenting to iva amErica or saudargas or katada saying front run this um they were probably already working on IT but you know the vision was set um and outside or set the model and so we've created that environment now there is no way that you cannot be involved in bitcoin as a country if you are paying attention right now. And the academic bet that we all get upon is there which is um the opposite is tremendous um and you don't necessarily have to have a massive position in this game and that is the same for every country. You would be completely irresponsible for any country not to protect themself by being a what might become a very strategic reserve acid for all countries and central banks.

And the most important thing is actually doing IT as treasury. This is the bit that most people may not understand by governments acquiring IT. Many people like amErica have an independent central banking system which is privately controlled, and then a government and sometimes into the future.

Those two interest do not alive um in any way and especially as national debt increases. So the ability for these governments to actually have a where they can make himself independent from a central bank as a member of the bank for international settlements, they actually get the opportunity to radically reform the monetary system. And if we end up in some kind of black one war event, um you know these strategic reserves, I think our national security think so.

It's very, very irresponsible for a country not building a strategic bitcoin reserve. It's an obvious one. And I think that they were all racing .

to do IT in a world. I mean, absolutely crazy that this is actually where we are in twenty twenty four. Uh, and I do think that we are also going to see more companies.

Do you think that microsoft obviously has their vote soon on whether to buy or a bitcoin? Do you think or anyone thinks the election could possibly actually sway that in the right direction? Because I think there's been consensus that there's no way that actually happens, but it's a great news story. thousand.

I.

I think the question is so my habit looked at the the the shareholder table. I know black rocks up there and fidelities there um but if works, have the way there. I think this is a really political question.

I mean, does the small investor have any real say in this? Or is IT just that? Or is IT a game of take the top five investors, top ten investors and what their opinion, which will determine whether IT happens or no? I don't know if anyone's look.

all the shareholders were big.

yeah. I think, you know, if the stories of bill gates reaching out to try to, you know, make nice with trump t you know, I know a boma was thinking, but I mean, honestly, you know, that's really the question IT IT feels like a tremendous long shot, uh, from a microsoft perspective, although to be plant, I think IT would IT would be probably the right move.

And and i'm pretty sure that the that the the board vote is to study IT, not to actually adopt IT immediately. In which case I actually I think that, that would be it's definitely a good move to study IT, but would be a bigger deal. The far more likely scenario is ah here companies who have cash baLances that are in industries that throw off cash, where they have a question of putting on their baLance sheet or buying backstop to goose their stock Price.

I mean, the success of microstrip gy is not being going to be ignored, and I think that you'll see more and more of those. And that's gonna like a snowball rolling down a hill before IT gets to the apples. And the microsoft know that the the absolute mega caps of the world, I mean, I could be wrong. I mean, got knows of a mega p and that that's a very big deal, but i'm going to be the leader.

right? I mean, tim cook is a big order.

You know that yeah I I write and a lot of companies are like, look, a lot of companies are like, well, you know, I shouldn't let my personal opinions get into treasury. But bit going to the downside has been the risk substantively and the upside where you look. I think that might call for two forty the cycle maybe too conservative if some of these things happen.

And that's the kind of thing that could get animal spirits moving. But because but right now, word eighty five thousand and there really isn't that much in the way of animal spirits. I know that seems crazy, but it's true.

I mean, this is like subsided buying. And you know, we talked about why that is this morning. So we have been gotten the animal spirits face. I'm not sure when we'll get there .

a maybe seventy five cents on those seventy five cents. Well.

those are sitting thirty two cents as we speak are very, very close to IT. What mean is certainly moving. I mean, it's it's a crazy thing to think of, but you think of what we've listed.

Everything Simon said is accurate in terms of company about game theory. I mean, the last thing you want to be in game theory is the last to a party, right? And you know, there are a lot of people, and that's where where formal comes.

And me, formal for individual investors is one thing. Formal forever. Nation states is a or or corporate treasuries is a completely different cattle of fish. So you know, IT to me IT is a very this issue tric. Bt can't last forever, right? And when we talk about IT, we're talking about you know a ten nex from here at a minimum to be considered a global reserve asset rivalling gold. So that's an issue tric bet that that is very hard to ignore, uh, for people who are doing treasury manager because IT has a signaling aspect of, never forget long island island black chain from long island t and what that did. And this this has much more staying power, in my opinion.

Get out .

whats up and .

averages gna comment down alone. I was just going to comment down the long shot on microsoft. Um you know I don't think even though they can um vote as they wish, the large as the managers have too much uh for ducal obligation to their in turn shareholders through whatever etf have, whatever other financial products they have sold that include microsoft stock.

And I think IT would be hard for them to go out there and say, you know go out on a limb of the initiative. Interesting if any of the um childer advisory firms, I would say something um caviler about this proposal like I S S O had and support uh the investment bitcoin. But my guesses is that it's it's the risk reward on this one is just not there for them.

Uh, you know if you want the coin, go ahead and invest in bitcoin. Don't invest in microsoft because IT is a bitcoin holding a holder. Um and I I I just it's it's a great event that is happening. IT is coming from a um from a party that is not necessarily part of the mainstream so like everything else you will start at the fringe eventually will make its way you know to more you know acceptable um and more um you know uh powerful a shareholders and the related groups um but I I just don't think this is the the the this is the point of win uh for bitcoin making its way uh to corporate bound shit side and you disagree.

H no I just wanted to um you know why you I not I not sure if I think, uh yeah will see what that one guys I think that was useful information.

But one thing I did want to point out and just observe that is happening just on the space side is obviously um you know David um host the the trade fy traditional finance space in the morning, which I come to when I can as well um but more and more of the trade fy conversation seems to be consumed by bitcoin and cricket, and more or more of the traffic people seem to be joining these spaces as well. So we seem to really be hitting this emergence where um the crypto what was a friend space or the bitcoin space is suddenly intersecting a lot more with traditional finance. And at some point, IT just seems like it's all gonna be one thing in an asset class. It's just an observation from the journey that we've all been together just covering these spaces.

Yeah, I think IT was there as far as would be an asset class if there was any doubt. I think now that we've had this election is very clear. But I mean, spent four, five years now that I think you and there have been tickers, C, C and fox business and have almost every show. So I I, I absolutely think you right go.

I did yeah, this one point that I made this morning that I think is on on your shot that the S, C, C. And finger have blocked all the thousands of burger dealer on the in the country from offering uh, crypto trading services through their broker dealers for the technical term with that would be non security trading, just like they offer futures. Uh, so none of those vocabulary have been able to do IT.

Robin hood went to the extraordinary length of creating a completely separate uh, subside area that was an affiliate that had nothing to with the broker dealer. But that's a very expensive proposition for every mid here broker dealer out there because of compliance and lots of other reasons, that policy is almost certain to end in january. And that, that basically means that you have the the real sales forces and you have the gear up to be able to offer these trading services the entire broker dealer network.

So when you talk about trade fy getting the cypher, that turbo charges and and I can tell you, I can't know the bunch of them were under N D A or conferences. There are lots of her not on the byline as well on even on the hedge fund community as that have been waiting for that in order to commit to crypto S A legitimate asset class. So this is a very big deal that extends beyond bitcoin. Uh, and the data has not even happening because I can't happen until funeral changes.

Their policies got you .

get to remember to the banks can hold big kind thought of being the liability still. I mean, where we're sitting at right now.

I can yeah right.

So but like what happens when you know the larger banks can do that or a lot of these kind of regional banks and someone could just kind of just like on sell, you know move a little bit of money around. They can just move money from their checking, you know from checking to be coin by fifty dollars, you know a week and and that stuff starts to hit like actual checking account apps is pretty, pretty interesting.

And then you know a little bit like more of a dark scenarios. These boomers are aging out, right? And you know, when the millennial generation gets in and they are the potential CFO of regional bank X, Y, Z, like they're not going to dip their toes in the touch going to right, like these are the access of these kids I grew up on.

And so I I just think that, that future also is incredibly right. And you know where I think we're just very lucky, even in twenty twenty four, to be sitting where we are today and and the ship that's going to happen over the next couple years. It's like I think a lot of us weren't counting on this shifting, you know maybe for another like decade. So it's moving weight quicker than I think that a lot of a star.

amazing. Well, guys, unfortunately, I could talk all day, but I got a wrap, spent an hour, or here, eleven, fifteen A M will be back, obviously tomorrow morning at ten, fifteen standard time. Big wing, by the way, started, I think, to show eighty three thousand, three hundred.

It's spout to hit eighty five thousand. Absolutely flying at the moment, eighty four thousand eight hundred and sixty and rising. We will see you guys tomorrow.

Thanks so much. Hello, I guess everybody in the audience follow them because mazing. And we will see probably most of you tomorrow later.