Up Only: What's Next For Crypto & Bitcoin After Trump's Big Win
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I think it's fair to say that markets have reacted positively to the presidential election to trumps Victory. Yesterday was the best day in the history of the S M P. After an election. Bitcoin obviously flew during the election and after. And there's polish sentiment across the board.

Is IT now up only what's next for crypto u and bitcoin? After trumps big win and arguably a big win for the crypto u industry, I have one my absolute favorite to unpack at all. Hub koshi from dragon fly, of course, charge guys on the backpack. Let's go.

What is that? Everybody, i'm Scott k. Are also known as the wall of all streets.

Before we get started, please describe the channel. Hit the light button. Get to break on huseby. Right now I feel like I an election hanger. I didn't drink any, but IT is like months of an election news and toxic is finally settling in here.

Yeah, I am so pretty sleep deprived, although I this is my first election that experience outside the U. S. I'm in singapore at the moment, which I will say surprisingly, much more pleasant way to experience an election because it's happening in the daytime. So yeah everybody, everybody y's doing all nighters.

And I like like over by five P M. Pleasant afternoon lunches and presidential decision. So I don't think we need to dig into what your expectations or what you thought would happen, but you are very bullish on Polly market.

You are an amazing thread here. What Polly market got right? What the experts got wrong. I think it's fair to say that all those pollsters making their predictions across the board and their polls and exit polls, all that and I guess you could have just watched a what the sharks were getting on.

That's right. I mean, was a pretty resounding medication for polar market. It's it's funny because I I posted another long tweet thread earlier in the week basically chastize ing the media for constantly flooding Polly market like you you if you look at what the walls you're journalist saying, what your time is saying, what blubb was saying, they were most of just talking shit about power market.

They were like always being manipulated. You know, there's fake volumes. They know that all these these trump loving, uh, crypto brows are mini, that you can't trust these Prices because they .

are all foreigners. I.

well, okay, there you go. You're part of the problem. Everybody was finding some way to minimize the legitimacy of a poly market.

Actually, you know, one of my favorite just today put out a blood post saying that like, well, yeah, okay, poly market also just slightly Better. But I still think Polly market was wrong and IT was bias in favorite trump. Now we just learned the story of the french, the french whale. So there was all this speculation with the french whale.

Did you follow the story that in to to bring, but while you keep going so so .

there was all this excitement about the french whale. Um this is not what I have with the french whale. This guy, theo.

who a sult of made thirty million dollars. The number was, you know, Better than me. And now the french government wants to block .

poly market as a result. Don't if you saw that that so I did not see .

that this is ww embarrassing friends three hours.

Yeah amazing. Well, so the moral, the story is that many people thought, okay, the reason why Polly market odds are higher than the the the polls and the election modellers is because polar mark is bias, right? It's one crypto brows. They love trump. Um now what happened was that CEO, who is this polymer whale he bought, he was like secretly buying up trump chairs because he felt that the pollsters were missing this big trump effect, which is often called the shy trump voter effect, which is that you ask somebody you're going to go for trump.

They say, no, they got a hemon hh and it's like everyone kind of knows what we're talking about like I know people who they were defined voted for trump and they would never say in public and I remember that being true in twenty sixteen kind of in two and twenty four, it's everywhere yeah so many people I know are they know that they are going to have trump. They are in faver of trump. They were frustrating with democratic party and they would absolutely not say anything in public.

And so with theo, you know this french well um he had conviction that this was true and he was going to indicated for himself by commissioning his own poll that he got pollsters to go out and instead of asking people, are you going to offer trump instead, he asked them, do you think your neighbors are gonna for trump? And what IT turns out is that this question phrasing of asking where people think they're neighbor's over for true as possible themselves, you get a more accurate response when you have this kind of preference for spring because people are afraid of getting judged. And so he ran a poll, hired literally a pulsate, paid like eight to eighty thousand dollars or something, hire a bolster to run a poll using this method instead, and found that there was a huge divergence that many more people were going to work for trump than we're actually saying IT in in response to pulsars.

And this is what gave in conviction to massively push up the Prices on poly market. So until then, the the Price of poly market, pretty similar to what they were on other markets, which tells you the moral of the story, is that markets find the truth, but they do not tell you why they're Price that way. And this is a perfect example.

When you you go look at what hedge funds do in traditional markets and equities, right, they're buying up credit card data. They are using sample let image to see into how many people are part in the parking lots to try to figure out what are the corporate earnings going to be for walmart before the earnings are ever knows. They use all source of proprietary signals to get the right answer because of how much money is writing on getting IT right.

That is exactly what happened with poly market. And the assumption from almost everybody was that, no, no, no, that's not was happening. It's a bunch of digits or just betting tons of money because wishful fit. And that with the amount of money is that big, but with the amount of money .

is that standard deviation was probably bigger because you didn't have U. S. Voters and there might have been, you know.

people who are clipped. But that's a thing. That's a thing.

I think it's very likely that actually not being available to U. S. Voters probably made the market more .

accurate because the neighbors, because of us through the third party lands and saying exactly there's just passionate.

right? Don't don't have a dog in the fight there is like, look, what do I think american will actually do as opposed to what they are telling themselves .

they're going to do. Yeah so this is really funny but I brought up a tweet accent in two thousand and sixteen when trump h was elected to the point of what you said. And this was my most viral tweet at the time.

I didn't have nearly as many followers such um this is in two thousand and sixteen as my dad said, people kept their mouth shut, went into the booth, checked over their shoulder and voted trump the exact same effect that you're discussing. I think you know on sixteen people ouldn't tell anything. In twenty and twenty they were proud. And in twenty twenty four, I think you went back to sort of the two thousand sixteen effect tier tier point.

I mean, a way though people are a lot less surprised about IT, right? So yeah I think in the in the afternoon of twenty sixteen, I member, I was living in the effort that time supersubtle liberal city. And there was a shock, like people just could not comprehend what had happened with trump within the election this time IT, it's not shocked.

Nobody is shocked by this. They are a lot of people are processing IT. A lot of democrats who I know are responded but they are but they understand right like IT landed that like, yes, you fucked up and they you were given a very strong Mandate that, hey, we're taking the country .

in a different direction yeah the respondents y this time is about their own party, I think, with different than two thousand and sixty. And i've given my most passionate boomer parents, friends or hard or democrats are doing the look in the mirror. Our party blew IT thing, right? And and and I do think that's very, very different this time. Now a Polly market, I guess got wrong, as I read, was the popular vote. But I don't think there was any expectation that trump s is going to take the popular vote on any poll, anywhere or any predictive site.

correct. right? So in in defensive poly market. So I poly market I know, but I also have a strong bias in favor of markets to begin with um but if you look at Polly market, poly market was uh hand capping roughly the same odds as nate silver who you want to lead election modellers.

Um so parliament didn't degree didn't disagree with the you know more less consensus among statistical modellers at the popular vote. However, there are difference with the popular vote is that the popular market was much smaller than the election market, right? So if many people were singing like, well, you know the market is not the liquid is not that big.

Um the popular vote monkey was about one eth the size of the presidential election market, right? So there's just 什么 是 figure bounty on getting the election right， because of course, the popular vote also this doesn't matter. It's kind of like a simple listing .

the coin flip of the super bol, you know yeah exactly.

It's like how many points they're going to be a head by, you know it's like, okay, great, I guess.

But like the real question that matters who wins and the that vote, the other thing is that if you think about you know a financial player, if you think about a hedge fund is playing the game, um you can actually find a way to hedge who is going to win the election, right? Why can you hedge that? You can heads that because who is going to win the election is baked into the Prices of equity.

So if you think that that's fifty percent likely or sixty percent likely that trump is going to win, will trump is going to put terrace on a bunch of you are exporters and so those exporters are going to be hurt, right? And so what how how do their Prices of their their equity companies change is implying what the market things the probability is the trump is going to win. Um and so that uh that gives you that what that tells you that there's a way to construct a hedge for the the likelihood the trump gets elected. There's no way to construct a hedge around the .

likelihood wins a popular vote because IT I mean bitcoin tesla does D J T any you know trump a jacket point base stock miners. I mean, anything that was a sort of even superficially a trump trade you saw moved this proportionally to the rest of the market. That's and there were times when actually the Price of big coin seemingly was tracking the polar market odds, a trump s Victory.

Now he was very yeah and another really interesting .

point you actually made um in your in your thread and I can find IT down below but was basically not only the fact that Polly market got IT right, but Polly market. Because you could actually see IT in real time flying. Was that like ninety seven percent or something by you know ten or eleven P M? I don't I don't remember the exact time. I I don't want to be wrong. But basically poy market also called the election where ahead of when even the people counting the votes chit.

That's right. So the reason why so again, IT comes down to the fundamentals of markets is that markets do not care about process. They don't care about patent ti.

They don't care about you know, the sacred ritual of counting every vote. All they care about is what is the right answer. And markets will go straight to the right answer as fast as possible because this, the first person who gets the market in line makes money.

So, uh, what you saw was that you know the election by midnight by midnight eastern, not a single swing state was called every single thing rate. If you go to look at your new times or CNN, they were showing like, oh god, the racist so close, who knows what's going to happen um paly market was showing ninety seven percent by midnight. The trump s is going to win that it's it's over.

Go home, go to sleep. Don't way for this when things could call because IT doesn't matter. The reason why polymer knew that was gonna en was by looking at the non competitive states.

So looking at new york, which is extremely blue, or looking at florida, which is extremely red, IT was very clear that there were huge pollini is right. New york was going away. More for truth, exactly.

He was performing everywhere and polling air is coral later. Anytime you see this kind of a big Polly miss is always correlated across states, which means that if she's off by this much in florida and in new york, the swing, say, are not competitor. There's no fucking way that the swing says can be closed.

And so poly market knew, just looking at the statistics, that this is over, of course, this one states trump is going to win. And so they knew almost immediately that this is gonna a sweep. Trump is going to dominate the swing states and the elections over a.

And so you have this weird ritual where, like you know, two, three, A M, the network levison is still know counting down to all this drama around, oh my god, know what's happened with consent. It's way county by county. It's it's absolutely. It's it's entertainment reality.

It's a reb like I will never forget two thousand when the networks i'll called door to door president and the world celebrated out in the streets and then all the sun that was hanging chats in florida and, you know, going, so that's very important. All those things. So I think that there is a fear, obviously, of college things too early and then being wrong with speak in.

But now that we have the result, I think you're completely right about Polly. Markets like I was generally polish on IT, not polish enough clearly, but we have the results and we have a obviously resounding Victory for trump, which many, I think, rightfully you, including myself as a Victory for the cypher to market. I'm not gonna only talk about crypto here.

I'm not going to debate whether it's a Victory for humanity or immigrants or at the other people at the Victory for the crypto market. IT wasn't just trumped though. I mean, joe crook here, obviously bright armstrong tweet about this, but we have one hundred thirteen pro cyp to canada selected in the house representative of only forty seven anti crypto.

Obvious is a lot more people, the house representatives. But these are outward, you know, a pro negative position, three pro in the senate elected, and only one anti in the senate elected. Guess who that is? Guys eliza's warn, you lost all her friends, all laugh, not willingly, by losing. Warn, one shared .

Brown was not want to lost.

I was said I said she's .

alone on her island.

her friends yes, SHE, that's the one and the army of one in the city. But so clearly this is also a resounding Victory down the down the light right? Um and a lot of this, by the way, is both parties this is not specific to to either party.

I mean, this is we have now arrived at the best case in crypt on the united states, hence the title up only what's next crypt to on bitcoin after trump's big win, I have longer ly the argument. I think big coin was going to be fine, but the crypto industry itself really was, I think, hindering on this. yes. And now we've got four years to see what we can do.

agreed. I mean this this is very much not what I expecting. I am especially having a sweep controlling all three um branches.

And like now we've got a basically republican conservative judiciary. We have republican president and we have complete control republican rol of congress. So sky is basically limit. There's going to be be no check on republican energy for the next two years at least that is really going to energize a proclamation of movement in the us.

The other thing too that I think is that people were in particularly for a fair shake pack, which is the big super pack is funded by by cypher capital. Um IT is completely turned cyndi into no longer being a partisan issue like if you look if you look down ballot at those you proverbs anteco pt races, it's both democrat and republicans now that have flipped being program tu. There was a great line by justice slaughter who is this paradigm and he was speaking to somebody who was a bit and White house staffer that said, democrats being anteco dos over like it's just not a tenable policy position crypto here to stay and the democrats finally figure that out. So I think I think we're really headed to a new world where the doors have been swung open and they're going to stay open for critical for the foreseeable future.

So as we don't stand there and free ourselves.

yes, somehow we've managed to completely live that spector, yes, completely lift that spector that was hanging over us. And so it's it's really weird, honestly, the feeling that I have more than anything is kind of like the feeling of of a dog that like breaks into the food cabinet and there's just like all it's like everything that you are planning for and it's kind of like shit kind to hear that like yeah yeah if you cannot, you need so much like we're here now, all of the potential um obstacles are gone. It's just kind of us us in the dolphin and um yeah actually interesting question as A B.

C, right you're U S. Base to B C, right? Obviously dragon fly. I my initial reaction was holly shit. I can hit point to my heart' content probably after the next three months like I don't need to hide from every like sponsorship, what whatever is like my my lawyers have long said, do just don't touch any of IT because you're a public personality and you're going to be on the rate or even if you do nothing wrong, they can make an example of you do of IT.

Now I feel like I have this, like I can know, should coins my heart content, so to speak. I don't know how much my heart wanted. I don't matter where you structured already in a way that I mean you you obviously invest in things that not available to the average U S. Best already.

But yeah, yes, I know. So I mean, one thing is that in amErica we never penalty zed, the individual for what they buy. We penalised the cellars, but we don't analyze the buyer.

So why buy? And scotland so much trouble, by the way, guys for like allowing americans but the americans using a VPN didn't get in trouble.

Yeah exactly because it's just an american to be like I know you're not allowed to gamble and chicken.

of course can you can gamble will say, but the people who are raising investors and amazing crypto things because of that won't touch a individual americans. Exactly yes.

Exactly exactly. So I think you're going to see that change, but we got to take things once at the time. Uh, trump is not in the White house yet. He has to get inaugurated. And once he's inaugurated, he has to pick out a cabinet and figure out who is going to put at the heads of agencies um because the houses under republican control, probably anybody's going to get fast tract, especially early on.

There's just A I think a honeymoon period with this congress uh that you know everybody can be like, oh you know yes, I know know whatever you want, I prove anybody as long as there you sentient. But I think what you will probably see over time is things start to free. You know, again.

my thing is really hard.

Gold is hard.

And every single time you get away in either direction, two years later, they like cow goes the other way yeah .

ah I think I think in two years, almost certainly we're going to see divided government at least um but the the big thing is that we still know when we had in the agencies and we also don't know there were almost certainly be a swing back towards you being permissive and being open to business, but we don't know how long that swing is going to take. We also don't know how many these cases are going to a get drop.

Some of them might get winter down. Um we also don't know you know a lot of the stuff er an investor protection that is you know sort of the spirit of what the S C C and C F T C are supposed be doing. Um we don't know how much of that will go away, right? You might say, like, look, it's kind of the right thing to do to continue on with these cases until congress gives us clarity.

Um that's that's not impossible for a uh position for a commissioner to take or or a chairman to take. Um so we we don't know yet um we should obvious ly assume it's going to be be Better and these next two years will definitely be Better. Very like we're going to see some kind of legislative package and go through congress and to get signed into law probably by the next next year.

Um so suffer happen, but the details are very much yet to be worked out. So I have a pretty high expectation of the base case. But we also to remember, you know even even relatively friendly environment, you get a lot of horrors and a lot of stuff that you end up you know negotiating this or that um so let's wait and see. I don't want to get to ahead of ourselves about what actually to expect like it's not going to become a you know total anarchy like you.

I don't expect that at all. I just expect that like if the president himself is launching multiple and F T projects and world liberty financial, that those things. Probably not going to be deemed illegal, unregistered securities in the future that even if you think the worst of him and it's just in self interest, which are not saying at all.

But now that seems like obvious conclusions of your average american hope will be able to do these things. I mean, this a new, you and I have discussed this at length. We believe generally in the four years cycle, I think election or not, we kind to be here anyways.

Personally, I think, you know, bit coin, this is when IT would be going up six months after having and soon there's going to be this major. There's another catledge to make a bigger maybe, but the money will flow under the later runs, the awkward and then everything is going to go down into the investments. I mean, we had that bulcke before.

Do you think that this puts IT on steroid? Or do you think we could just fAllen on our heads and done the four year cycle thing? And I skipped off the conversation.

I I don't know that I believe that macro and politics doesn't matter. I think IT, it's overwhelmingly clear at this point that they really do matter. And if camera had won and if you, for example, had a about of higher inflation and fed would refuse to cut rates, I think you would see a very different uh, environment for for cryo, maybe enough for the coin.

I think bitcoin maybe has hit that escape ilog that it's gonna ep getting more and more institutional buyers and a lot of that is at this point more and more untethered from retail. Um yeah the reason why bitcoin has has done so well in this last year is actually not that retail dream, uh, a lot of IT has been institutional demand and the institutional zone of this asset. But you know when you saw trump in the election, coin base rockit IT up on the APP store.

And we're now seeing I think I think we're basically set up for an actual retail cycle, which we didn't really see that much this year with a little bit of IT in march. Um but but the most part, retail has not really come back into crypto yet. And so that's the biggest thing that I am looking for is are we going to see a retail driven liquidity cycle? If so, then I agree with you all are going to go wild because of course, you know, in order for alter really run, you need retail. Institutional investors do not get outs to go crazy.

and we need more detail than in the past because is so much more supply of all of those tokens that people want to buy. My long argument and i'm sticking to especially now that must is likely a part of the government is that real really comes back when doge approaches its all time high again because that's where all the money ent N F T. And those is where the actual retail interest was last pyy cle.

Remember talking to C, Z. And the other CEO of of exchanges because back then you had to be on a centralized exchange to change means, which is a little different now. But and then all saying we little, we can't on board people. C, C, made a quote to me, said there's not enough like people in china can trade enough to on board people who want try those on to buy that right, right? And so imagine how many people are underwater holding dose from thirty, forty, fifty, sixty, seventy cents that will be really interested if they rental checked portfolio again and see that .

they're in the great yeah I I to play agree with that and I think the this caster characters being now the the the presidential team, you know, trump, hj advance, elon, no, rogan like this is this is a really strong set up, a swami. It's a really strong set up for having not just proscriptive policies but just proscriptive vibes in the country, right? And I think for for retail, that kind of matters a lot more than the legal stuff.

I don't think we all really cares that much. We know whether also get past or whether you know this stuff is easy to trade or is easy to this or that like retail was doing all sorts of crazy shit or to trade and in twenty twenty one, you know and like if the amount of pain that users will go through in order to let go do the special thing of the day um is really just surprising, especially in in the market like this. So um I think if you see that kind of energy, especially as rates come down and a lot of liquidity gets unlocked for money markets, that money you got to find somewhere to go. And critter is going to be one of the obvious places where you see a lot of capital flow in.

Well, I been, listen, if you know the way bitcoin has risen here, the flows we've seen with the utf, even in the immediate the rise now points, there has to be new money at this point, right? Because everything is going. I not saying it's enough for all of that and I didn't even realize.

I think I kind of like became dismissive of meaning inns. I thought they had their cycle pumped fund hit record revenue of mid AI. Me point france is searching to thirty point five million and october, so somebody dies over there. Maybe it's still the same old bwh hing machine, but there's clearly some new money already started to trickle and that has had been there for the past six months.

right? right. Yeah I mean, so look, I I think this cycle, my guess also is that is this cycles going to evolve going into next year whenever you get retail really coming back in, in a muscular way, something changes the game changes a little bit.

Um I don't know how that game is going to change, but I don't think it's going to be just you know twenty twenty four on steroids. I think it's going to look it's going to look different. There is going to be something else that changes about the meta going into next year that will it'll probably surprise us and it'll probably look very stupid and annoying at first and then will be like, oh, I just says the thing.

No, I just me you're still very optimistic for the Prices of our beloved c crypt al. Assets in twenty twenty five. Before I let you .

go to say the least, I am I very optimistic.

Guess so many incredible things are about to launch that nobody knows about outside of the incredible things that we already have trading.

That's right. That's right. I mean, it's a it's a time that I think you have for folks have been building over the last couple of years. A lot of them been biting their time, waiting for the right environment into which to you know give birth to their creation. Um I think twenty twenty five is just gonna a really wild ear for crapo.

And we've been to this garlin now like two, three years of the stupid of a toning for sense, after the fall of F T X, the fall of luna, know all of the excesses of twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. We had to pay them down. And this feels like now, okay, you've done the work, you've done the attachment, you've done the pendent. Now you get to .

read the the words, I feel like I already went turn around with prime time, my tyson, so, you know, still live in alive yeah, I think this is the time and I know you got to go to thank you so much. Guys can follow how to write down in a the description. One of my favorite, as I said, in always a pleasure, I appreciate you shooting in from the other side of the world.

Have great night and thanks to my dread, absolutely amazing. I mean, it's fun to be back in a place where we can just generally share all our sentiment, Price aside to have this optimism. I think backing cypher in our market across the board, even with retail, I I know a lot of people, even personally and ecotones, who are kind of waiting for the election to look at cyp to again or waiting for some clarity.

And now they believe we'll get clarity or are still waiting for that clarity. But now they will come in next year when we start to get some legislation, regulation. So like I said, you guys can have your obvious and justified thoughts on what the election means for the country and any of your choice and issue abortion, immigration and sea.

We're here to talk about crypto, and it's hard to argue that this wasn't a huge win for our industry. Now time to look at some charts i've got down here, pretty wild man best. Uh, I think market day in history after election, I guess the markets a like this. I was interesting because I thought there was a chance that if we did get the red wave that was someone Price in, we might see a quick cell off quick, just a kind of sell the news event. But man, that didn't happen.

Yeah the the mark remembers last time where, you know we dumped initially because the marker was really surprised when trump p on. And then I was just v shape off to the races uh and no looking back. And so yeah ideal ideal scenario as far as what crypto bulls could have hope for. And again, and I like the way your compartmentalise ing things just, you know ten vision on one topic there is that is like.

I really am not a journalist bite by any stretch but I feel like if i'm going to cover what's happening in this space, I could have to focus especially this. You go in such wild d tangents on what's happening in this space, and you never like inject my personal politics and a step which is hilarious because i'm both a lib tarred and a tramper r apparently, if you just check the comments every day depending, because I dare say, you know what's actually happening and it's not always good or horrible on either side.

The other day I mispronounced koalas name. I put the emphasis on the wrong salable and and apparently that I found out that that's disrespectful thing. And so people, based on one syllable, people were like trying to, you talk about my political leanings, how, just like me, i'm not paying attention that much to this so bora.

yeah, I tweet something. Ah, I treated something yesterday to the effect of, you know, if you believe a presentin Candy is going to make the Price of things much lower than you're wrong, they may make the Prices rise slower. Inflation is the system and they thought I was an anti trump t tweets. I dare say that like the Price of chicken won't be seventy five percent down by next you .

by february .

that inflation is the system. Like they said, they want two percent inflation. That means goods are going to rise by two percent generally. It's not that simple a year. If you think, uh, he's going to give us massive deflation, we might be in .

a depression. Yeah there there are many systems in our country that don't have a ton of impact based on. Who the president is and the financial system is one of those yeah but .

they love to credit and a disc dit presidents for what happens in markets. But let's take a look at the blue sky. Break out new all time highs yeah beauty, very poetic. That had happened as the election votes were being counted.

Yeah, it's again, you we can compare IT at the last. I mean, this was a blue sky run right off monthly. E M.

A twelve new high. No, follow through this retracement. This is where we use our federal I to help us determine probabilities and things. But depending on where you pulled down here, but you know the retracement was six, one, eight or you know over fifty percent, which is not ideal for the bulls. And then you look at this run and again, you know, you pull here, it's fifty percent.

If you pull from the bottom, it's you know three, two that generally defines the bull flag, but uh, much less retracement both of them bound stuff monthly E M A twelve and now we just want you know, we want eighty thousand plus just to have a nice clear follow through um but you know you can take this time it's is doing everything IT should and you know we love our backburner trades where you know I designed this trade style for two thousand and seventeen when you want entries you don't want to be buying the top, you wait for the trade to come to you. And so on election night, you know, bitcoin shoots up and then IT heads down to first five minute oversoul conditions after the run up and that your entry and you know you you don't want to chase you, wait for the trade to come to you first five minute over old. We then get a new all time high up to seventy six. So again, just utilize the back burners to wait for consolidation on the shorter term time frames, to look through your entry to have good risk reward and not be chasing yeah I mean.

where do you think bitcoin .

heading now? Bitcoin, i'm looking at where we get the F O M C later today and and it's going to be volatile in my opinion, just because know you look at the nas deck and we went you know we have no resistance where a blue sky break out, but we also went straight up. This is the four hour chart.

So there's you know we can have a lot of volatility involved directions just because of the lack of Price levels established. So definitely going to anticipate some volatility. But again, I do believe we are in dip buying mindset for the market.

So the market will be looking to buy those tips um and bitcoin, you know right now, what I would want to see is healthy twelve, our consolidation when we get IT, ideally holding the back test of previous resistance um as support, you know just keep keep the longer term, the twelve hour the daily consolidation healthy and again, more follow through. You know we're over the all time high by a few percent, but we want to be over by five ten percent for IT to be nothing convincing. Leave, no doubt, and keep that whole narrative going.

I love that volume. Now on the break out, I did really confirmed IT for me. And you saw kind of bouncing around right at resistance and did close significantly higher.

So you know what I wanted to see? I did. But now, right, as you said, we want follow through. We don't want to be like trading back in sixty five for one two weeks, right? You know you want want to be staying up there in my opinion.

Yeah we want that seven number in front ornate will take in eight but uh seven or eight eighty thousand don't want to go back to the sixties too quickly um and we're watching the domination are .

you know always wondering when and .

running running yeah a solid red day today, but we need to see a solid red week for the start of a shift. And again, it's just an extremely strong up trend and that has to be lost. And so uh you know we have a nice day on E T H P T C yesterday as big coin or as a theoria broke its uh local resistance zone that IT was battling blot again. We've know you I have been watching this trend line forever and we can go for a month with E T H gaining against bitcoin and still not be over this resistance levels. So again, she's got to be as just got to it's gotta trend is got to be, you know, nice quick moves are great, but then it's gotta follow through with the higher lows and the higher and again, it's just not proving to be done from the other side, which is the all coins.

Yeah, I think we ve been here long enough to have talked about so many touches of that line and to be so far away from IT. That means you I ve been doing the show for quite a while because I we we've gotten cautiously optimistic at that resistance a few times. I wouldn't say optimistic. We said, listen, your resistance. But I am encouraged, at least at this bit of a Price action now that we're seeing to the outside, we have a lot of bullishly divergence, I think, but this could just be another overseas .

belts yeah actually I mean, step one is break the weekly lower highs uh, to even start thinking about a potential bottom. So yeah, just just have your criterial laid out in terms of what you need to see happen. And that's that's really important. You know this just talk about biton bigger picture.

Um the last cycle, I had a lot of personal friends that we're like, you know I i'd ask what you profit taking strategy and it's once we get over hundred thousand and so much of the market had that mindset over hundred thousand, I start inking about taking profit and then we didn't get two one hundred thousand and those people literally held the entire way down. And you know now they are vindicated, but they also SAT through a massive drawdown. And so you have to have game plans for both situations.

And this is going to translate to talk about canada real quick. But you have to have a game plan for your ideal scenario where IT goes your favor and I hit your targets. And you have to have A A criteria where IT doesn't.

And you know, maybe if bitcoin confirms a weekly downtrend from here without hitting your target of ninety five, maybe that raises a red flag and says, okay, I have to adjust my game plan because things are not going the way that I thought they would. And to transition into cannabis, we are watching the florida vote. We had a nice run up into the vote.

And then with sixty percent garbage, I live in floria. Listen with you, whether you believe in legal american or not, the fact that for some just arbitrary needs a sixty percent set of a fifty percent vote is just .

so not thanks to yeah something like because it's in the constitution I think I forget the reason but yeah it's wild to have you know fifty five, fifty eight percent of the vote and lose it's like but the majority wants anyway yeah but there was a steep party and you know heading into that IT was a coincidence for me. You could go either way.

And just in terms of trader mindset, you know, from the summer to the fall, I was, let's say, eighty five percent confident the florida, canada stocks would run up into the vog into the vote. I'm only fifty fifty, so my position size is a full position for where and eighty five percent shore. And then my position size is a half position or less for when i'm fifty fifty.

And of course, he fails and IT dumps massively and I was T C N N F here was down fifty percent at one point yesterday ah because it's a huge step back in terms of what could have been. Uh but again, you have to have a game plan for both scenario. And people are commenting on my stuff saying it's a one hundred percent on the past.

And I just know that those people got crushed because they didn't even father the possibility that the thing they didn't want could happen. So to tide that back in, you have to have game plans for best case and worst case scenario to ensure you're not line cited. And then is just a deer in the headlights. The flash numbers do the thing that you didn't think they were gna do.

Absolutely, absolutely. So what else you got up there?

Russell had the massive break out and hit all time, has adjusted for dividends if he hasn't gotten there unadjusted yet. But again, i'm we're to i'm going to beyond here with you in a couple of months talking about being cautious about blow off tops in the broader market. I mean, the last deck is now up over one hundred percent with the S.

M. P. Five hundred from the twenty twenty two lows. Work up a hundred percent in less than two years are right about two years. And that's not sustainable. And again, you look at in the video the three month time frame. I've seen many of these charts, I nAiling the top is extremely difficult.

But when we top, we will pull back thirty to forty percent and see three months consolidation on this time frame, just like the nas acted back in twenty twenty two. And yes, IT was a long of return, higher, low. But all this being said, I I am a ble.

I've been a table in the markets for, you know almost two years at that. Well, are you over year and hf. And eventually the euphoria ends a certain way.

And the fast you run up, the heart of the pulled back is going to be. And so for me, the last checkmark I needed IT was russel. All time high as that knew all time hires.

So as not me saying we're about the top right now, we got seasonality in our favorite in all that. But uh, end of twenty twenty four into the start of twenty twenty five, i'm gonna be talking about a potential blow off top scenario that we have to prepare for. In the meantime, biotech sectors, a potential lagged.

It's testing a resistance wall at one of three X, P, I. And if we break IT, it's two and a half three year highs. So that's one lag d name that hasn't gotten the break out that many other names have already gotten yeah.

told, agree, read, stop time. The last one, yes yeah. And one with these stocks now you I .

come winter, people people will say, like where were you all twenty twenty two IT was a bare market, not a bag holder. I don't see bull opportunity. I'm not gonna trading IT.

So I I disappear for a while and I come back when there's opportunity. So i'm done with the stocks for the perceive future is easily the weakest sector in the markets and uh, lower higher for shorting and i'll be back at some point. but. Uh, again, just move on on. So where there's more opportunity in the markets?

absolutely. Thank you, man. Always checking in. I think it's gonna just kind of stablish for a little while, but I agree, like some eventually got to pay Price for that as of the market. And hopefully we won't be the ones screaming one point five million dollar bit point by march or something when we get got up in the hi supply is confident .

we won't be the people .

must just be depressed to here you stay done with weed sex there.

Yeah but but I come ago, you know, I very much am not in love with the story. I come and I trade IT. I make the profit and I I live. And that's the way of that market. That sector should be approached, as history shows us.

Now follow that guys on x, of course, chunk guys, and on youtube for a lot more of this content. And really pretty. And here is always men.

thanks. Doesn't see tomorrow for the friday five. Have good one.