Crypto Comeback! Are We In For A Massive Bitcoin Pump? | Macro Monday
01:06:42 Share

Big point is making new all time high after new all time high. And this time, all coins are finally along for the ride. I think it's fair to say as they we'd like to point out that IT was not Priced in, not at least not immediately after the election.

I cannot wait to dig in to what is happening with bitcoin and markets. With the three legends, dave, mike and James, this proved to be the best macro monday ever. Lets go.

What is up, everybody? I'm scot milka, also known as the wolf of all trees, before we had started, please subscribe the channel hit the light burden. I did not wear this or in shirt because it's nuclear or no I wit to commemorate the new consistent all time highs here in bit going going to bring on the team right now. We've got ja, dave and mike daves background, obviously a little .

bit of a role.

Where is where's the beef?

One of mike are a lot of true.

I would argue.

here at eighty two thousand. And here's the beef, right? Obviously, bitti, uh, broke all time high on substantial volume and seems to keep going markets obviously loving the election, I would argue also, IT was just time in the cycle, dave. But this is the beef for talking about. This is the beef we are looking for.

We're just getting started, Scott. I mean, the rumors were and and you remember the words that I ve used, so I wanna trip a little bit today. I'm sorry for everybody, but basically the rumors were out of asia that there is one large buyer and that buyer couldn't find a big point by and that's why the Price is here.

Uh we're going to see whether IT happens or not just the talk of uh A U S B coin strategic reserve Dennis porter uh who for those who don't don't know, he has been unbelievably important in the bitcoin lobbying efforts at the state level in particular uh, talks about three states adopting between their treasury and more to come. We haven't seen any a anything on the corporate treasury side yet. So there's a lot this is this is classic game theory.

He really is. I mean, we all think that if bitcoin becomes recognizes a reserve asset to be the digital version of goal, that the Price is fifteen times these little, we blindly toss that out as if that has no meeting. We kind of were used to IT and then we come back to well, but in the four years cycle, the both we're onna get to as maybe I think of that well, maybe and I talk about what will be horia.

If you look at the bitcoin network, you and very easy. The last cycle le, i've been set up many times that would be there would place euphoria, someone around two hundred and forty thousand, which when you have cycles, you do end up with the europe part of the cycle. Now it's not a straight line and traders who think this is a straight line, uh, if you love yourself, you could be extremely unhappy at some point, get washed at your position.

But the facts are that a euphoric bitcoin Price would be over triple where we are today that eur c. And that doesn't take into account IT becoming or being recognized as a global refugee pressure. So no, uh, this is the beginning in my opinion, this is exactly what I was saying, what happened and we're only in november.

I think that that that this is you know if our cycle theory holds, which seems be lining up in some really incredible comment event with everything, I think that we have all market that last somewhere into next year, and we end up in euphoria. And we're not the euphoria now. And we will talk about the data, data.

But I let let other people, but to me, bitcoin rising this much, while gold mean gold is still good to do very well in this cycle, and that you really believe that that you on can somehow magically cut all the other parts of the budget that are not government spending and trigger you a sunni of growth. Then you have to be long gold here also. But you know let's look at the last week, bitcoin has raised all the underperformance of gold and then some since my can I made her bet. And we're not we're not even close to much.

So it's not not all yet. To be fair, I do have that time. So it's basically that's good year.

Yeah thirty four was the top of the bitcoin gold ratio, uh, in this move, which was marked right around when you guys made the bed. I think twenty was the bottom. It's back to thirty one. And I mean, there you're three off. I mean.

it's it's it's a big brain. We're moving in, in the direction that, that I would expect. I actually expect old be higher in march that IT is now, but that's what whatever IT is.

But now when you look at the correlations to markets, everything went up the beginning part of the rally, and that's true. But remember, everything else other than gold is tethered to earnings potential. Bitcoin is either to what people think it's going to be and more people believe it's a reservation asset.

That valuation goes up now we're going to fight with all coins later. I don't want to go to monologue here, so will stop. But I do think there is a big difference in the case there.

Yeah, before we move on slightly, I do want to show you two rumors that came out that sort of lend to what you're saying about nation state adoption or the other side, the world we've got breaking news, big oil money tenter bitcoin. Ninety old saudi arabia, the lap hic cleric, writes a thought while deeming bitcoin acceptable under islam. That's one of them.

So people pointing to baby salaries. And then for max guiza, we've been hearing this for a long time, a cotton, cotton katar, whoever, whatever bad american renunciation you would like. He was countered.

Or in the world cup here, apparently looking to buy a half a trillion in bitcoin and maybe already doing IT. So I mean, you know, hard to hard to vet these things, James, but certainly looks like someone is happening. Take a look, by the way. Also there's article here somewhere i'll find IT. But basically the bid on coin base has been absolutely aw, I mean that americans are leading this rally with .

spot yeah there's it's IT 进去 了。 I saw a couple of um a couple .

of person riding. Sorry, I to respond that because i'm staring at now. And the one thing we see is the bid is mean cracking and bid sampler right along with IT.

It's the U S D. Bid is higher than the usdt bid. And if you look at A U S D, T U S D, the reason for that is people are buying usdt in order. And every time usdt .

is above .

par is my points of ve. And so whenever people say that it's spot buying because it's IT because of this, that they're wrong and I what I want to be quick, let me share my screen for a row. Quake.

no, it's this is a good point, is a really important point dive.

Okay, so so this is A A quiet Green, everyone see IT now. Okay, so it's probably hard to read. You zoom in a bit, honest. Um you zoom and I can go around the screen that's probably making .

IT easier .

OK you cool. So you see bitcoin USB here is eighty two one seventy seven and diverse is a two o eight five. If you do the math, you're gonna see it's because usdt, which is where my person wagging around, is six point four basis points above U.

S. D. Now the reasons for that, generally when people are going to pile in all points, but IT does not matter or bitcoin IT doesn't matter, print piling the Crystal.

And that's when U. S D tickets opening. But when IT does, the U. S, D Price is higher than the usdt Price. Now if you look down here or likely mix, so you'll notice crack in bit stamp and coin base, we can do college tax because world's world g here are going out, right?

So you can see the bids on all of those three exchanges of the deal through I have in this particularly group are all in line with each other. So it's not coin base bit, it's dollar based. Bitcoin being above that doesn't mean that there is a spot buying because generally, when the usdt is at that kind of a bringing, that is spot buying.

But let's at least getting straight. And a lot of people out there who make that statement are just wrong. You know they just they just have a look at this market my restructure.

So okay ah went over jams. You continue. yeah. I mean, well, that the .

interesting thing here is we get into Price discovery mode over the weekend, right? I mean, we kind of entered IT last week uh after the after trump clearly one the election and positive cyp du positive bitcoin um policies are likely to come out of this administration, but well, far more positive than they were in the current administration. The current administration was absolutely a bible for this a industry.

So um removing those barriers and and um and that that anchor often off the neck of a bitcoin is clearly important um that people will say, well, you know, Price discovery mode so we can just go we could just jump over one hundred thousand and go on to know you forth new highs like dave was uh kind of um highlighting earlier. But the reality is now you're going to get into areas where you have mental levels. You know you've got that eighty thousand dollar level that IT broke through over the weekend on light vine, but um you know heavy enough that it's not interestingly enough, you would think that that volume would have been even less this weekend.

But he was IT was IT was substantial enough um to you know to make this move. So but the question is what are those of those mental levels？ And uh, you'll see I expect to see some you know some trade against going on, but just trying to wipe out uh shorts and and push IT to certain levels and then no pull back.

And I do expect some volatility. I don't expect you to just do that one hundred thousand dollar god candle, you know um kind of move that that's not what I expect I do expect to do to continue to be ever, but it's going to be valued the upside ultimately, in my opinion. And uh will mp mp into the nineties and and then retrace back and you know I think it's gonna struggle to get three hundred thousand for at least one or two tries.

but we'll see and I could be wrong because bitcoin at every level has struggled two, three, maybe sometimes four times. So IT depends if .

there's no more technical levels, are just .

logical level, is psychological.

Now this is not the old and say.

well, fundamentally, IT should be closer to three cores. The Price of the the total market value of goal. There's not there's no you know fundamental value if you then attached to IT other than IT should be a larger share of the total global assets in the world. That's IT. That's the only thing you can attach to IT.

Yeah okay. So we got the gypt to fear greed, and that something they we're moving into extreme greed. We can stay here for a very long time.

But I want to use as a same way into mike because you know a lot of things we're hearing, we're starting to get the you four sentiment of never down. We're start to hear those things. They can only go up under trap, obviously, that i'll let me speak to IT. But anything changed you, mike, now where at all time has an impress discovery?

So the world change last week, and hats off to dave James and particularly use guy because you nail this this unnailed this six months ago and then said no by october, november could break up new highs and you, James, and you did to they. But scot, you a little more specific about IT. So hats off.

Great calls. Facts have changed and bitcoin is jump in and on board as being the fastest horse in the race. In fact, the point is its sixty day correlation is the highest on the way up to stock market, stock market and check and making record highs.

Bit coin is and I I love the beef. Come a dave. I mean, spot on.

The problem is that still hasn't done what people told me supposed to do. And that is go up and stack, go down. So it's still full market.

Get IT everything up. Everything should be up. The problem is, is them. But you mention its we all mention its a human nature.

Now everybody is looking for the last big trade and mostly stock market. Now I just get off my call this morning with everybody says the same thing. Now i'm handing about its its consensus.

I'm worried about trump. Will that be is extreme. He said he was in the campaign and I think it's the gonna be the opposite based on macro.

So first is point out right now we have when trump was eleven two thousand sixteen for about two years, S P. Five one hundred was great at a hundred week move in verage and how in there good indication. Now it's twenty six percent above that level. So it's great, but it's very stress. And but he said it's gna go here but we all know that was the last trade.

Just curious how much that no.

that was two thousand and sixteen i'm sorry, meant to two thousand sixteen life that I point .

that election before congress and uncertainty of what policies gonna have a little bit more because he was in, he was in power for four years. So we have a little bit more visibility and expectation, which is probably .

why I ve talked about to that. Yeah, me me, I had some key points. One thing I want to mention is one key book I got mostly done with this weekend is um no trade is for me a Robert light tizer.

He will be the next train represented if he wants the last train represented under trap. He's pointed out these trade issues for decades. Trumps pointed on books he wrote decades ago. And now that we have a complete, almost red sweet, the house, I think is very ty closed, but we're going to have a trumper administrations completely above.

And then we have me thinking legacy he knows when far as the old rules and I say he can't run for another term um but he's going to be thinking legacy my point is if just reading through this book expect those terrors to be as extreme and as strong as he points out this should be this is something I thought I mentioned. I used to say the trading in the training pit thirty years ago, and it's all great. But in the world once have free trade, as long as they can never trade surplus in the us.

But the system set up, there's no way you can have the U. S. To have recipe al trade, when we have the largest demand, poor economy in the world, the most of three market terrify have to be higher in the other countries sending into our country, because is so a teaser, so the micro o big bitch out point out is from a comedy standpoint, this is nothing but pretty severely deflationary because, number one, there is a preexisting trends.

Creoles already heading lower. Copper had probably picked. All the grains are heading lower.

Now we're going to be heading towards pretty significant, probably the most significant potential in history, global trade tensions, similar to one hundred three. The difference was all this, we are in a depression. Then, here or not, the rest world is completely now.

Let me finished that. The rest world, okay, well, the rest of world has a big prom, for instance, are are still oil. Point out out our the main issue might be with europe because europe been taking advantage of U.

S, not just china. Robert lighters books points completely in china and with what I think are going to be the key issues from commodities, don't expect anything but deflation. So the key level that have been watching his branch has not been able to get ove eighty, eighty dollars a barel, probably on head towards sixty.

Copper has been unable to above ten thousand dollars ton is probably going to head toward seven thousand. These are Normal things and happen. The key thing is goal problem still have a bit of correction towards twenty five hundred eight member.

We are heading towards a potential period of a little bit of we've had major, you know, attention. But if trump helps solve some of these issues, have a little bit of lighter geopolitical contention, that's a pressure factor for go. And dave, we agree i'm still boys go.

But IT was always do for a bit of a back up to twenty five hundred the coin handed back up and IT proved that he was right. So to me, this is the key thing to watch and markets going to take. Oh, and I end with what our economists said.

They don't think it's going to be a big difference until twenty two thousand and twenty five and two thousand and twenty six from trumps policies on the equity market yet the markets Price for perfection now. So there's going be some big opportunities here. The key thing is bitcoins leading the animal spirits and equities. And no, of course, there's going to be no issues there.

if you. But I really believe in in in a deflationary event in the near term. Might how do we explain what's going on the ten year?

So let me finish and point out, commodities, I say, are clearly deflationary or so what's happened in the ten? You what's point what's happened in the tango right now at four point three zero, that's two hundred and twenty basic points above china. At two point zero, detect the top five of the countries in the world.

They're all heading lower. We complained, explained completely by R. G. Abuse, running around three percent because of seven percent debits.

That thing as things are tilting low in the fed diseases for a reason because they are restrict, they're seen on appointment going up. We all point IT out is probably going to go to six percent. We are our omi m expect the fed to cut another hundred based point next week.

But that's the point is this is the thing i've watch her decades I get IT ten. You know yields have been going up. The thing is, uh, ira jersey thinks that peak and yields might have happened from the trump pump.

We've already had IT. But but I will look at treasuries right now zoll be unlikely. They're gonna some point. I still think that might be the next big trade is not can happen, but the key trigger for that is the stock market going down.

Member right now, there's very little reason for to but also, we've seen a lot of demand for treasuries in the actions just recently. The point is there are so high versus the rest of world, the rest world is going to get lower. Their yields are going to get lower. Their kinds are going to lower. Particular us shutt off from to the U S, but start from them exporting to you.

That might be true. But if you look at the okay. So if you just look at the fed funds implied rate um the the imployed terminal rate, right you've got to right there the W I R P on on on your screen like you can see that is now it's at three point seven percent going to twenty six, right?

So so we're talking about you know you we're looking at turn premiums ms on on the the ten years of over percent. So I mean that there's there's a reason for that. And um and the the reason is inflation, like the reason is inflation.

There's just no question about IT. We're going to have inflation now I agree that goal I think goal will go higher. Uh, it's have having a little bit of pology because you a dollar, maybe some geopolitical risks been taken off the table.

We you know the likelihood of us going to world war drop a with with from coming into the office in my persons opinion, I think in in h traders and investors opinion. So that's part of IT. You know the dollar is part of IT.

Then IT just needs a little bit of a breather because IT has had a hecker a run for gold. You know it's nothing like biton, but the ten year, I don't think it's gone to stop here. Four point three percent.

I mean, it's it's gona gravitate up towards five percent. That's that's my persons opinion. It's because of long term structural inflation and it's because of the deficit.

You talked about we've been talking about this forever. Those are not going away. Trump in the elan can go and try to cut cost, but there's there's no real places can cut them. There's no I mean, you could divert into more productive on spending. But and that's what I expect.

I expect things like oil to come down a Price because of additional drilling, opening up federal lands, allowing for more a you know fracking that kind of uh that kind of policy is going to be positive for for energy costs. And uh and then deregulation is gonna good for for small companies. And you could have a jump in real GDP because of that IT.

IT remains to be seen how long IT would take because like you said, these policies take time to play out. IT could be two or three years but and perhaps um some of the stuff getting head of IT itself. But I do expect real assets to benefit from IT and smaller companies.

And so I just yeah I just one fact .

and that I think you will be right as long as stock market keeps going up at the pit is if IT has at some point, we still haven't seen the beef a Normal twenty percent throw down a Normal year when IT doesn't make fifty times new highs, maybe doesn't make a new hires for a couple years, then I think you'll be right.

But remember, if you talk in yields around five percent, what does that mean for the whole market member? The old bond budgell is the key thing out point out is your pain out is different. This time deficits always didn't really matter.

Maybe there are so big now they do. But I just a thing that i've been pointed out for thirty years at. Anytime it's just they haven't mattered for U S.

Treasuries, accept in the short term. And then when you compared to the rest the world where we're very much Price for very high deposits, very high inflation, U. S. And the rest wells don't kill towards deflation, may not be avoid that I I understand.

but the bond market is saying differently because as the fed is lower rates, the ten years going up.

that was a really bad sign. I get it's a real bad sign for inflation again IT. But was that mean the fed to do race rates to make cause by right by lowing rates are trying to help like mortgage macs markets and everything helped him the economy, yet they're hurting other loans and mortgages is anything.

So what does that mean? I percent, I don't degree, disagree, but also memory a short term thing was for the election, let's give you a couple months after the election, maybe even get trump in office, and now we all know what's going to happen. I would see the thing is we all completely know what it's completely .

anticipated and IT will that occur in bloomberg .

and earth .

is of the trump administration is basically the french analysis. When they built the imaginary line that would that would deter and stop the germans, it's fighting the last war IT. IT is looking at things in a way that assumes past behavior when it's demonstrated the different.

So a couple of ana. It's first after two thousand and sixteen, about six months after six, seven months after trump took office, I was at the dinner and had chance to talk with paul. Actions to, for those who don't know, was one of the the key members, the truck transition team.

And before that he I knew him from when he was an S C C commissioner. Uh, and at one point he was actually anna alist for B S, C, C commissioner again this time, which he is a great no, he he is a great mind. And we talked about reg at a mess and a lot of other stuff.

But one of he said to me, which you've heard and read about in the press, is that they didn't expect to win. They had done zero work before the election on assembling a transition team, and then they were really late to get started, and they only had to focus on a few things. Basically, they did not have their shit together.

He didn't have any plan for, uh, we staffing federal agencies and IT showed this time hold latta c has been sitting on the trump transition team for almost six months. After five months, they have been working diligently to go through every federal agency to see where they need to make changes or they can make changes and what they need to do so that they will hit the ground running. IT will be vastly different this time.

And you will watch IT mean here. He has his list of people for his major appointments. They have the senate this time. And you've seen that whether it's soon or or rick god, and i'm not a lot definitely in favor, I go for a and you don't like the guys.

but I had that time around .

too long here. I know to I like to already .

and is our best governor.

Lots of policies. The simple reality is they're going to get arted quicker. Now when the reason I don't like the bomberg analysis of his policies as he starts with stuff that IT IT doesn't include probably the most important policy changes and IT underestimates things in the cypher space as well, the first thing that happened and john reed stark said IT and john and I don't agree on everything by any means, but we do agree on this, which is that the S C C and C F T C should be focused almost exclusively when they do enforcement efforts on front m ipl tion and both.

And in particular, the S C C has essentially ignored fraud and ignored manipulation in favor of pursuing, uh, good actors. You know, basically for jurisdiction inal reasons that stops. That is massively important on them.

That is a massive macro tail win for all egypto VISA v the stock market where IT is no effect. Now IT, there will be changes in the stock market. That is true.

The other massive change that they are banking on is the regulation across other industries. Now and when you 称为 oil， you know, whenever we talk about commodities, we we always talk about IT monoliths. The truth is IT isn't oil Prices going up as a attacks on the real economy.

And we understand that oil Prices are coming down. They will probably continue to come down for a bunch of reasons, one of which is the one that I can not agree on, which is our technologies getting Better and we're getting Better at that. But there two, there's two others.

One, you guys mention federal land. The other, James, kind of mention, which is peace. Don't underestimate peace within a week, and he's not president yet. Within a week we've seen cutter saying her, mos, get the f out if you think that, if you think that because I invited saying it's because they pressure them to its again, they had year to pressure them that happened literally .

the day that two cut of missions .

in one shared via reaching out that you saw the hood saying, you know what we this was we're not targeting shipping anymore. You you see you it's it's, it's peace in the midst east is not Priced in in the oil. My I I actually agree with what you were saying months ago, which is that we should see a test down.

We might even see a test down to the forty. Maybe we've had some real monetary inflation, so maybe to go to fifty, but we are not Priced in for an oil drop if peace in middle east breaks out. And that, by the way, I think, is my base case.

Yes, you know you're going to see by gasses and we should talk about geopolitics and will probably well on spaces and the other stuff, but my best gases, you're going to see the radical get increasingly ly isolated and want this to change. And you have we've had a war premium in the oil Price for this whole year, basically. And that that is a massive factor because if oil Prices go down, even even if you call that deflation, I actually call that stimulation to real economic activity and a lot of people wood as well.

So IT is is is a double sort and let up Price in the could finish because is one of the you that's not Price in. I'm going to ignore the if he stays in power beyond this because totally not relevant. What is relevant is legacy and the legacy that he really wants to do is on least american innovation.

That's what iron is, therefore, not to cut costs at the federal government, but to cut the barriers to doing business in this country back to where we are the best place to do business. If they succeed on that, none of that is pressed into any access. Now by the way, that would mean the trade is by Russell short S M P.

Or buy Russell two and short Russell one if you want to get right right down to IT because that way, uh, you you're taking advantage of the smaller economy. But even there, that doesn't really capture the real effective is what they're trying to do is, is get startups, new companies to get formed and that different in the economy. A lot of what happened over the last thirty years is bipartisan corporate sm, meaning large companies favored over small companies.

That trend reversing is good for crypto o certainly, it's all so good for new businesses and smaller companies. IT may not be great for companies. Price to perfection in the S M P five hundred.

And so when we dig into that in but let's let's put a pin on that for second because I was just radium on A A bloomberg burg daily trading. Uh, note that with more than ninety percent of the S M P. Five hundred members reporting, they are on track to nearly double expected earnings growth in the third quarter, so with an increase of eight percent.

And P, N, L. I mean, so you know the questions, how can which sides gona revert is going? Are we going to catch up on the earning side or we going to a rever back to the the P E ratio like and revert back uh, the the whole market revert back in Price to meet that ratio? That a question. I I really know there is a separate logy between like ecology and energy industry.

Yeah I just say, you know, if we talk about the stock, mark, I think, Michael, I will agree more than we disagree long term. I do think that there is some very big changes coming in multiple industries. And if you have to do a deep dive into those, I mean, there is no doubt that big agricultural companies, uh, are going to have a lot of pain coming their way.

Mean, monsanto, etra, you know.

if we ll see what happens. I think this year, I believe in some of IT. I mean, yeah, I don't think he's going able to change the water systems in states.

And I find IT interesting that a present who ran on a platform widely of deregulating everything is going to allow R, F, K. To heavily regulate.

That particular is not good, regular, not about regulations, about what what we yeah, once again, too deep of the die for this. The the question is what are the policies in terms of financial markets and cypher? We know the policy is going to be no regulation by enforcement. There is a lot of reasons underneath the covers why that's going to matter. I I personally think that my most important mccrone call in cricket, do you could put a in in IT now it's not a short tern train for is long you real utility tokens naming we deep in and let an actual topics that put not allow economic participation in what they do and they will outperform means and other things .

yeah this is the time that's because we're actually that part of .

the cycle now where you can move something that always does. But that in the long, but need to make that I think is most important is if you really want to peal back the Young on, look for a peace dividend, look for an oil Price dividend and understand that when you talk about the fed, the policy is to engineer inflation in assets while prioritizing capital over labor to include lower consumer. So you have lower consuming lathing highest.

And inflation has always been the goal. They're going to continue to be the goal. And so we have to understand that what we're making investment decisions .

and you could yeah you could get into the situation. You you have lower consumer inflation.

higher asset inflation. No, yeah, that's what they want.

That's and my deflation and deflation deflation for an as inflation yeah .

oil Prices dropping is quote deflationary. But what IT really does is IT IT puts more money in people's pockets.

So it's that the only come out to me that's unknown, known we glad we agree on that when inspiring viewers prefer when we disagree but that's why I you you know we Green and also member those aren't bloomberg views at someone at bloomberg. His views, I point again, I point out this one. I'd disagree with that.

I point out that way. Just read that book. And having been in in knowing the human nature of what's happening here, the key thing is that why he tilted over to the number one comedy, the watch that has to go up for global reflationary forces or deflation forces not to be kicking in.

And that's copper because it's stuck in the middle. You just look over the one thing I will just feel little about what you said, dave, is IT is Price in islam. IT is hard to argue with the U.

S, start market. The high s ever versus msci X, U, S, N, X highs in fifty years at a seven and fifty of forty year highs is a hang sang g index with U. S, yields at two times.

The yield at the ten in out in china is second largest, tony, tell me, hundred basis points above the top five countries in the rest of world. The rest of world tilting towards a global deflation resets. It's hard to say that what you just said in a lot of what's gonna happen is not only somewhat pressed in and that's what I can to .

the because what i'm saying is not Priced in. I'm talking about crypt A. I am absolutely agreeing with you that IT is all Priced in to most traditional financial assets, including a little bond stocks. ETC, I think, is Priced.

So that's why I just waiting for that beat. I'm just waiting for that sign of the cypher show that divergent .

strength when the stark the the what has happened over the last week is the entire force of the legacy financial system to try to marginalize digital asset, whether IT be bitcoin as a currency or tokonoma s in order to be able to do distributed finance in a more register, an efficient way. That disappeared proof overnight. We do not underestimate the fact that we, I mean, we felt IT, right, you know, and we're a software company and we know that we have to tipped out banks have been instructed for years to stop cypher companies in the united states. One instructed.

I got to show you guys something really fast today. I guys showed something because this is the ultimate confirmation of what you're saying. Anyone who I has listened to me on spaces multiple time to know, I often talk to john read star, who is the S C.

At S C, C for two decades, head of enforcement for internet, hugely against script. U think its all for scammers and criminals. His Anthony screwups is best friend from childhood, which is kind of funny.

They argue about this, but this is what he said just the other day. The start reality is that the people have spoken and the sec should stop all cyp to enforcement, dismiss, settle all ongoing crypto litigation and chair gangs. O should resign.

Present trumps Victory was a mamah landslide, and IT should be respected. Regretful to the moon, I guess. right.

But this, you're talking about the guy who I would spend hours with debating these things, and he was critical of the C. C. Even at the time, but saying it's done, it's over.

Let's get that's right. And just to put we had a conversation, jani and you, on a spaces in August. I think IT was where actually had been before the july where we talked about this and that the core question was, what is the C.

C. S. mission? And I compliment the john because i've looked up his record and he is, he actually did prosecuted some very important cases, some settled that were really weren't talking about, but whatever.

But in almost all cases, he prosecuted people who defrauded or manipulated period. In other words, he did his job. We know where would bitcoin and the crypto be if there was a real fraud prosecution.

And F, T, X was never allowed to happen, if voyager was never allowed to misrepresent where they were getting their yelled from itself. Cius was never allowed to propriety trade when they were telling people they were doing loans. Where would cyp to be if there was a real cop on the beat and there was actual fraud prosecution and market manipulation prosecution? Much tired. And that is my point that is not Priced in net is and in the second point, the Price in is bitcoin being a reserve as but .

that's you on all .

other financial assets.

You you have two things to happen with the trump Victor. You've removed the choke point, two point now, which is a barrier that to bickering and and crypto one uh markets and and growth I mean, David, one hundred percent right. I said on the show before I have experienced with my hetch fund, there was an there was a very active and aggressive negative stance on cyp to and bitcoin in this administration.

IT was brutal. So they would just cancel wires. They were refused to issue wires.

They would tell, uh, customers they had to leave their bank and go somewhere else if they want to send money to ecliptic firm. No, IT was. He was incredible.

So that's gone. The barrier is gone. Then the second thing .

is and the .

second thing is the second thing is now you've got this moment um for center limits to to push the the bill to uh, which he drafted this summer to adopt bitcoin as an asset, as a treasury asset and that that is massively significant if that goes through.

I mean, that is just that, that will be where, mike, this is where that that narrative changes if that happens if and when that happens, which I believe IT will eventually happen, if you'll take time, it's not going to happen overnight. But I do believe that happens if everyone that does happen, that this signals to the rest of world that this is this is A A valid asset to own. It's not just some token is not just some you know fly by night, uh you know mean scheme.

It's it's real and that will the U. S. Treasury doing that is a huge nod in the right direction.

So so I completely agree with that when I read safe in on this book to the bit coin stand and we point out out central banks to start holding bitt coin like was six years ago. And then this I didn't disagree, but then you know became as well knows sell like a it's just a question of time. Now we're talking about lot of if statements and we're pricing a lot for those if statements don't disagree, agree. It's a big, big picture though. Again.

why I don't think eighty two thousand pricing IT in. I think eighty two thousand is pricing a low probability that happen.

The two two thousand is just a .

great just not forget what's happening in bitcoin is still three times about delhi of S M B. Five, one or three times of all to the gold to be a reserve acid. Anything of big size, maybe in a less than point zero zero one present, that body has to go down, which means these big moves will be should be our doubt at some point.

I I think the volatile comes down after the big moves. It's not the volatility comes down in the u of the big moves.

It's gonna, votile, ity point.

Yeah of course it's move out over time. Is that matters?

I don't want us and it's .

uncurling future adoption, right?

Let's talk about that, that because it's it's massively interesting how we have actually grown an industry with half of the world's investible wealth having a banking system. The basic said, if your ecri pt to start up, not welcome here. yeah. Now understand that if you talk to any economist about any other small businesses or start of economies, but IT don't matter what sector IT is, the very first thing they want try to do is say, make sure those entrepreneurs have access to capital.

And the single biggest concern in every financial crisis is that if you look at two thousand and eight, IT was IT was literally people were screaming about IT was, oh my god, why do we have to save these bank that have done this stupid crap that we're going to save them and create more wealth concentration in the biggest bank? The reason, given every single time, every time, was if the banks don't have the capital to loan to businesses, our economy will grind to a screeching halt. right? Does anybody dispute that on this problem now?

Because we are, we are.

we are based on debt, correct? So now we've had an industry that has had that happen in space to IT for multiple years of the by administration. And now that's gonna to not consider the implications of a of eliminating a freeze in in debt capital or the entire industry will have just foolish. And to me, that is a very big deal. IT is a much bigger deal than people at Price.

I had I had a conversation with somebody who is who who um an entrepreneurship wants to do roll ups. Am I going to get into the the specifics of IT wants to roll up of an industry and you know to do a roll up, you you need capital. You you need to be able to borrow capital to do IT.

But the moment that he said he wants to put you know bitcoin on on the baLance, you in the treasury and to grow, grow his treasury that way, IT was like, well, you're never going to get a bank to do that. Not not in this administration. It's going you know, it's just not going to happen. You're not gna get even a regional bank to say that they will come to terms with convenance that will include that you just won't happen. So you it's exactly right day that but .

that everything is a big deal that yeah that is a big .

O I I want to just show you guys something really quickly. A couple charts because the market has opened fifty minutes ago. Obviously, we got coin base gapped from two seventy to over three hundred dollars. The first time it's been three hundred dollars, six, twenty, twenty one and microstrip gy, who incidently also actually gapped up above three hundred dollars before trading. My Michael .

bought another. That's a thing that was Michael .

bought another 呃。

twenty seven thousand, two hundred big coin. Microstrip gy, so now there, now they are holding two hundred and seventy nine thousand foreign. And so that just to what what that does here, okay, is that that that reduces so because the the E V the the um the enterprise value to the underlying bitcoin, uh A U M, right that that reduces IT back down under a certain percentage, right? So IT IT brought IT down premarket down to like two point five eight. If you look at the the enterprise value over the underlying bitcoin, well, now it's back up to two point seven eight now he is trading over three you this last month. so.

This feels eph ic I didn't missing. I wouldn't short IT like I there's a story here that people who shorted tesla.

I think we what i'm trying to tell .

you jump in front of this moving train. But like if you are on your rational right.

you but Scott, what i'm telling you is that the reason is jumping is not just because bitcoins going up. It's because because uh, Michael has brought down the the the ratio, the enterprise value to underline between ratio by buying those. So Price goes up to to you know replace that ratio back to towards where IT was, which was somewhere around two point eight to three to three point over the last way, probably got ahead of itself, I think. But nobody knows where the long term, long term ratio this should be.

I mean.

obviously was a split. There was obviously a split.

But when you point out where one second day, there's obviously a split, but when you point out where microstrip gy buys bitcoins in this charges, trade IT was affected. I be at the time I was like one hundred and twenty box, right but it's it's twelve dollars every time about twenty five thirty x since microstrip gy bought by going I mean, that's just a absolutely insane in saying number .

yeah but so can I make I make a point about coding and in the way the barca is trading so you know, we all like to talk about days ago and understand what's going on. I will tell you that the marketing crypt o for the last week and the marketing coin base this morning and what we're seeing today is almost exactly the same as the market in the internet stocks in the six months prior to march of two thousand.

So this is a lot like the you know the the the the nineteen ninety nine and then but then they're worked about year two thousand and stuff and then the that at first three months of two thousand, where they were massive runs and those massive runs weren't god candles. They were two percent, three percent ralles every monday when the people over the weekend called their brokers and were buying stuff. And you saw and and generally, tuesday was a moderate reversal, followed by wednesday, things starting to go up uh and then thursday was um and friday was a big up day as people trying to get their stopped done in before the weekend and IT was just rather than repeat for a week after week, day after day like cost people sitting they were they were sorry to people who I work with.

There were people who are functional could have probably with their best qualification was they played across in college and they they got a job in an OTC trading desk and they were making millions in salaries, basically pushing button, doing nothing, but getting in front of customer orders, not necessary, the illegal front running, which just knowing that was gonna there and keeping the desks long. And this was across there were hundred to these guys across multiple firms, the the type of trading mechanic he saw there was a rally hold, rally hold. 那 what we've seen in crypto for years， which is euphoric rally dump, ephor rally dump, this is far more like to that.

And that is A A, A trading pattern that that people need to understand. And a lot of crypto traders don't know that. That's why a lot of traders, you know, we've learned over the a good thing is as you eight months of range found market. And so what that meant is people who got you for got liquidated when nobody follow them into the pool. And so that's why when you look at things like the funding rates and you look at liquidation, so if you get a very, very large move, right, a very large move, uh, you know the twenty for our liquidation is is actually more longs are liquidated in shorts.

of course, because of the volatile right that happened.

but not big numbers. You know, the last time we hit an all time high funding rates went to point o five. There are still the only point of one one nine.

I mean, there are tender. They're very small elevation, elevation almost exactly the same as the tether premium that that, that we point out earlier in the show. But there's one other effect of an eight of an eight months bull market that means we talk to a change.

And I were talking about that right before we went on air, which is in an eight month able market or ranged about market, excuse me, institutions that were long bitti in. Many of them sold covered calls in order to increase their yield. Every one of them is now functionally short for where they wanted to be because those calls are getting are getting called away or they for them to .

buy them back is not more expensive, expensive.

That happened in the dynamics of a range found marketing. We always talk about, got you. And I would talk about this in smart, but people need to understand why arranged about market creates so much volatility when the range breaks on the upside.

It's because people lean against that seventy thousand level time to be oversold. Seventy to eighty thousand in that range. Calls on big, on taking IT was free yield. And for eight months, I was free yield. Until IT isn't used to be a company I .

never forget, then eats and eats .

into your captured .

yield for months to get to move IT to and James, before you get .

about the company now. But that's the other thing you guys could refer to, IT as a gama eez. I think it's much more orderly than that, but it's part of IT.

Is that part of IT? The game is eez. It's it's not all one or the other.

Yeah, I got to get I mean, we ve got to get your take on all this. There's been so much and I do want to go back just slightly because I brought up this chart earlier and it's interesting because we talk about obviously commodity inflation um but twenty percent tariff s on all imports under trump, sixty percent terf on chinese imports, two hundred percent tariff s on imported vehicles for mexico. Then you have china years, record one trillion trade surpluses, trump returns, and these seem to be opposing forces running into each other.

OK right? So um expect him to do what he says. This is an evolving human being with the cart baLanced to do IT who's actually had his life thread and is now thinking, legacy, how's the world gna view him and the world's herta tilting that way.

So I see severe deflationary forces command at china. China is probed going to do what japan did. Japan's G, D.

P, now the same as was thirty years ago. I think the quote was that for a little while that peak japan was almost seventy five percent of U. S.

G, D. P. That's about where china is now severe deflation just kicking in a potentially regime.

China, I will change. I mean, major in turn interior things. I'm just looking at the U S. trade. The bounced services um deficit is eighty four thousand a month and they average to seventy one. They average twelve months to seventy one um billion.

That's when trading hire more more trade of sits since trump was in in in in office and was round closer to fifty um billing it's only and it's kind of reverse but the rest of the world, good luck. And then you have to think what terrors are going to do for U S. More financial part of reason.

The whole point of that book I I pointed out was um um that no trade three is this was U S. Corporate profits doing great because they offshore everything, turn everything over as like the major focus jack wells, SHE wouldn't do any business with any company, didn't take a show that's all going back. Elevate great internally, it's gonna bad.

Inflation can be bad initially for profit. So going to be a transition, but that might take years to think is I wants to ask everybody, is IT look going to get IT Better than where the is the outlook right now? Gonna Better than IT looks right now. We were pricing lot of options.

We have to see a trump does, but I fully expect him to do what he says and don't unresolved the human nature of this human bean who now has a ticket to do what he said he would do and shot everybody and I also mess with, you know, being in the medium and bloomberg, um I kind of get you I thought I didn't think he would win, but he did. And boom, switch was flipped. Move on.

But that's why I have to be, you know, it's a comedy guy, I I guess coppers to be number one, the matters, I still think the next big trades gonna true bound man, what they're competing against, record setting risk assets, serif, that keeps going up. That's great. Bond yields will stay high. You gotto expect that to keep happening. And questions how much longer will last.

My one more question we talked about earlier, the sixty day via the sixty day correlation, a bit going being the most. It's been a with the stock market said ever how any way up what's the shorter or Victorious like what becomes you know, when you take a look at the move from high sixty to eighty four, how much is that going to change with how much bitcoin has gone up to relative to everything else in this shorter period of time? Because IT seems like he has to have been coupled from that, making you twenty .

IT did little while right now, the numbers point six seven. And can 你 i chested futures because you know futures versus the bitcoin futures and versus p many futures is a little bit low because they only trade the same time。 But this the measure is dave can dig into specifics, I D like to say the highest ever on the way up.

I mean, and it's going up, that's great as long as everything is going up. And the question is how long with that last? Everything looks great to right now.

a lot correlations got in. What you're getting at is correlation measures direction, not magnet de, right? And so a day that the stock market goes up a half a percent and biton goes up four percent, registers as correlated, you know, it's it's and the thing about that point, that's exactly my point.

In thirty days, if we look at the sixty days when it's actually heavily accounting for the move that we just save a very different number .

three and numbers. Key thing. But here's i'll show one little key thing that's Better thing i'd like to watch for a little sign of animal spirits.

Is that ratio between microstrip gy and bitcoins about the higher ever right now? Okay, I get a little leverage. Bitcoin s leverages. I likes a bitcoins, leverages beta microstrip ratee es leverage bitcoins.

I mean, my rosta gies is gama is gamma IT is what IT is, but it's not leverage data. And that at the end of the day, our biggest source .

and races and know that means .

effect is horse in the race in terms of devaluation, currency is not in terms of risk assets as as a great large but. You and I will beat that one to death. We all know where we stand. And honestly, I don't think that i'm persuading you are you're persuading me.

I just think that, that when terms are clipped up, I think in terms of of other coins, I think that is potentially leverage beta because you you're going to see with, in fact, IT goes the way we think. And this is something to dig into at other times, if you end up with the regime where instead of having to go through the V C. Route of years and years and years to raise liquidity.

You can actually raise money via tokens and have immediate liquidity, your relatively immediate liquidity and illegal way, I think you're instead is a massive uh, unlock for entrepreneur s in this country. And if you think that this administration doesn't know that, then you you're not paying attention and that is a big deal. But that has nothing to do with anything except for the layer ones that might and other t another talking in that will actually be used to build said, said economics.

So I don't want to talk about that now per say, but I do think it's important to understand that every single time conventional economists have look at the trump package, they have focused on the the red meat, they have focused on hera fs and talk about smooth holy. And we could dig into that. They ignore the regulatory cutting.

They ignore the all of the things to to improve business conditions for, uh, G P graph. And that does matter. And we're going to see how that plays out because I .

just take a long time, a long .

I present. You're right. This is the sort of things .

where people can try you. You would think that the terrible situation might can be talked about this. I think on thursday, you would think that they would kind of, to your point, you would be one of those decisions to take short term pain for long term gain if you believe that IT would work over time, that the production and everything we come back to the united states, who would force us to make everything here and be less reliant, that's not an overnight thing. So if you believe that terrace long term are good, you have to believe also that they would be painful in the .

shorter and but what days maybe this trump administration is ready to hit the ground running? And just the book point of IT out, he read, is a former trade represent from robbert lights going to hit the ground running. And my thought to be thinking, okay, we got to get through this right, right away. Bang out those terms s much as possible to the regulation right away. And before the mid terms.

you're going have creating perspective. What does that mean? That means the fourth quarter G, D, P is going to be larger than people expect because a lot people are rushing to import chinese parts and goods for reselling and for construction doing the same thing.

So is going to be there is going to be a massive surge and inventories in the fourth quarter, and that's natural is no different. I mean, if that doesn't happen, that would be really, really surprised. Does does that is that effect next year? S profits, what will actually materialize after that? Those are all questions for another day.

Markets tend to be tend to look at the bright shiny object in front of them, you know, at least in terms of liquidity, and you need to understand that. So if you do expect a massive surge in inventory build up, which will look like bigger GDP numbers will look Better then being short, this market in the in and over the next few weeks is probably not gonna going to work out terribly well that that's just there. And that's if mikes right now, if mike's wrong, then they will have done that.

And yeah, you love in elementary work through, my guess, is much more right than wrong when IT comes to wiltern s get put in. I suspect that ever that they're going to be more moderate than than than people talked about. And I think they're to be more targeted at industries is that they really care about and where they're equalizing and equalizing environmental .

and worker rules and using the threat of them, using the threat of them as a, you know, and go to negotiate. That is because because the reality is this administration we have now could use a threat. And IT was empty, completely empty. But the trump comes in and use as a threat, okay, that that gun is loaded in their mind and it's real. So that's right.

That's a very big difference. I mean, there is no such thing as A A red line being rid in the sand right in the next year.

Here's some of the interesting just came across the um the the tape that uh C M B C just said there's two point eight billion dollars uh of options bet uh of bitcoin going over ninety thousand dollars so what's interesting about that is you know on a training perspective just means that ninety thousand dollars is kind of acting as a gravitation. That's what that number is and so uh going back to to mix comment on the gamma, that's what that is you know that that will that will act as uh you know um A A planetary force of gravitation.

And IT will also give a really good opportunity for the basic trade which could be driving out of that spotlight.

So so let let me just back up a little bit with James said unless I was in that position, I just having trade option is my whole life and that's like no new york was when you see a concentration of open interest. And if i'm long those calls, typically the market to go there after my calls expire.

Yeah member, but but watch what do you see what microscope is done over the last month? It's loan through everyone seeing one of those levels because of the game streets. So well.

this I think that I think so that I think people are doing the are the short microstrip gy, a long big coin ton? Sorry, but we all know that just shorting the space and that's way out to look for me.

I would never be the basic map on the basis i'm looking at december. Yeah, i'm not going to show the screen and but it's the same screen. Uh, i'm looking at december.

In november, you're talking about nine percent uh, which is not uh annualized. So I mean IT was IT was as high IT was in the double digits. Trade is not exploding.

This is real buying OK, right? And by the way, the reason that there is a basis trade and and and IT makes sense that the basis is lower in this reality with trump s and I did with biding. why?

Because the reason there is a basis trade is because of something, it's gona disappear. And the reason there was that basic rate, for those who don't understand IT, is that U. S. Financial firms looking to hedge, they're bitcoin, whether derivative positions or etf. The only thing they could buy was etf because they're not allowed to touch spot bitcoin.

The instant councillors, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, you know, whatever, I was going to say something that mean the incident, the S, C, C, other different management that prohibition is going to go proof, meaning that Morgan standing, golden sex and the other people trading will be able to buy spot and not necessarily pay above market interest rates by buying futures in order to do that. So you expect IT to cut down and gets what markets are rational. It's two or three percent lower in this rally than it's ever been over the last over the last year since the etf went off. And and that's a trend that you expect, which makes you a much stronger rally, by the way.

And just a footnote on the basis, trade my and not just you wouldn't want to be short anything in bitcoin, the people who were the hetch funds who were doing that trade of long bitcoin, short microstrip gy, they Better been doing in the right dollar value because they didn't understand that that Michael still had an A, T, M. Available to buy underlying vital in and return that that E, V ratio to underlying bittman in.

But where was that? You did not understand what that he was out of a lineup because still at the T. M. open.

But we also that what interesting is when that happened back, that was the last time, march, April, when we went from basically seventy thousand down back below sixty, if you watched, that's when those microstrip gy short, Scott square ze, which meant those people have to sell off the underlying bitcoin from that trade and actually sent bitcoin Price downs. But I do about to comment.

but now I get you did. So that's the thing, is an option trade. You can only structure options, positions on, crush you with the negative gamma. Well, I could see people get hurt with the negative.

Gama, well, yeah, because what people do is like what you do, a pair trade and and I there are a lot of system. So like you know, when you the pair trading system, like you know our company offers or and others, you can people buy x and sell. why? But what if you expect X A converge to y at a different Price? Microsoft gy is lever that you feel you were short.

What if you were dollar for dollar? You were functionally done. You really needed to take a new count down.

Well, you if you did our neutral destroy and .

that's a .

short recon .

position outward, that's a negative delta. And no thanks, you do that positive delta that that's right.

So but but I was talking about the the chicago C M E futures version spite and cm futures calendar role as indicative, uh, what's going on underly structural on the market because that's the other thing that that that you don't is not Price in no broker dealer amErica is allowed to offer bitcoin trading services to their customers. Here we are on november eleven, twenty twenty four.

Every broken dealer that applies to afford to be able to offer bitcoin trading services as a commodity through their broken dealer will be able to offer though that in november eleven, twenty twenty five, think about that. Yeah, they can offer etf. But now .

so I got.

So to put to put put an examination point, what day what you just said is that there's so much still not Prices in dick in the treasury, not Priced in broad, broad h insuing. A adoption is not Priced in being added to a corporate treasury. The baLances is, is not, is not. Price in the eighty two thousand eight hundred is wonderful. And we I do expect a volatility, but none of that stuff is Priced in.

right? And Scott indicator is also flashing massively. Green goes going about to hit third. Oh my god, I was listen.

I was going to a say really quickly. I was, this is what I was going to try to conclude with you guys never remembered in march when I said the top is in for six months, I said retail does not come back until those starts pushing all time highs because that's the thing that everybody's holding and will not pay attention to crypto o until they're not massively underwater.

Like all of the of the last cycle was people buying doge, nfs and zamboni, but IT was primarily doge. If you guys remember when I talk to C, Z, he said there's no enough people in china to do customer service to onboard people fast enough to buy. Jose, well, those people are now starting to see headlines about those.

You're going to start look at IT and saying, oh, well, maybe the script of thing is back and that where the retail liquidity to me is going to come in. I said this six months ago. Now look at those heating thirty cents today after dropping as low as basically five cents only, you know, like sixty percent, often all time high, that can be a day and dolge ous Price action for anyone who knows.

I've got the dogs have met you guys have been right here, is always on my desk because I know that you guys, you're going to ask for. And James and dave, I M do something, be very embarrassing. But they're asking forward to the crowd as we exit. I'm going to play this song if you don't mind, I think is playing, you know.

you you.

I just like that that's when you get me a copyright strike in case if he as were wondering. But I did start IT and I did know that now the video cannot be monotoned, which is going to remove A M video of bread garden, light house, telling you dissent in X, R, P. At the beauty of.

A day I actually loved the where is the beef? I think we can probably talk today for many, many hours. But I think the resounding sentiments here is that bitcoin has now broken out. And if you have followed the cycles in the past, not that they have to repeat, but what we've been saying, at least, uh, for a while, is all points are probably going to boom sometime, you know, in the next six to nine months as formal really catches up. And one must I want to show you just back to rick sd, because IT triggered me.

You guys may not know much about rick god, who is now probably going to be the second majority leader, but this guy oversaw, as CEO of c of the largest healthcare fraud in the history of mankind of medicare and medicated also was believed, popular government in the history of florida, twenty six percent approval rating. This guy has been added his way to the top, and that would be a sounding to see him, the head of the republic ican. senate.

I mean, IT unbelievable if you get into his history. But here, you know what? Welcome to american politics, guys.

That's all we got you today. That was an apple te epic show. Uh, so much fun.

I can't wait to do IT again next week. Uh, have spaces in six minutes. Gotta, thanks everyone. please. 我 这里 干。

好久 不要紧。