cover of episode 469. The Road to The Great War: Countdown to Armageddon (Part 1)

469. The Road to The Great War: Countdown to Armageddon (Part 1)

2024/7/14
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The Rest Is History

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多米尼克
斯蒂芬·茨威格
汤姆
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斯蒂芬·茨威格:一战爆发初期,民众表现出极大的热情和民族团结,不同阶层和语言背景的人们都沉浸在共同参与历史的激动情绪中。战争初期,这种民族团结感和集体归属感是前所未有的,它暂时超越了阶级、等级和语言的差异。 多米尼克:人们普遍认为一战爆发是由于民众的热情和沙文主义情绪,但实际情况远比这复杂。许多历史学家认为,应该关注个体在特定环境下的行为,而非笼统的抽象概念(如军国主义、民族主义等)。1914年,各国决策者缺乏及时有效的沟通,信息传播存在障碍,这增加了决策的复杂性和不确定性。一战的爆发并非匿名因素的结果,而是由具体的个人做出的决定,这些个人及其决策应该成为研究的重点。一战决策者常常被刻板地描绘成民族主义的、反动的、好战的老人,这种说法是不准确的。许多决策者在7月危机结束时都经历了精神崩溃或情绪失控,这表明他们并非好战分子。将一战责任归咎于“老人”的观点,源于战争本身的文化叙事和文学作品的影响,但这种说法并不完全准确。 汤姆:一战是20世纪所有恐怖事件的源头,包括纳粹主义、布尔什维克主义、二战、大屠杀、共产主义、冷战以及欧洲的分裂。理解一战爆发的原因并非缺乏信息,而是信息过多,导致难以解释。将一战简单归因于对革命的恐惧或民族主义,是不准确的。许多一战决策者是国际主义者或政治温和派,他们具有国际化背景,精通多种语言,在不同国家拥有朋友,这与通常的刻板印象不同。人们害怕的是全面欧洲战争,而非局部战争。没有人得到他们想要的战争,战争的结果与预期大相径庭。弗朗茨·斐迪南大公夫妇遇刺事件的受害者身份以及事件发生的地点,对于解释事件的后续发展至关重要。

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By the end of July 1914, the world hovered on the edge of a cataclysmic world war; Austria was at war with Serbia, Russia with Germany, and an ultimatum had been handed to Belgium. The July crisis had resolved itself in the most calamitous way possible. But how did this state of affairs erupt from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, in Sarajevo a month earlier? Even in the wake of their deaths war did not seem inevitable, with diplomats and politicians such as the British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey manoeuvring to douse the flames kindled by the Serbian assassin Gavrilo Princip. The fires would, however, prove unquenchable, thanks to the implosion of of the Balkan powder keg beside a declining, desiccated Austro-Hungarian Empire, long fearful of Serbia, the rise of Germany under the eccentric Kaiser, as an industrious powerhouse to rival Britain, and the complex alliances and treaties that forbade the Great Powers any retreat from the coming inferno…

Join Dominic and Tom as they set out upon Europe’s road to the First World War - the War to End All Wars - and explain how that devouring conflagration, which would see the end of the world as people knew it before 1914, came to pass.


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