The Debate: Unpacked
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All right, we have a special hot take, special edition, emergency episode, post-debate thoughts.

on raging moderates, so we're going to try not to be raging here, although I would call us elated moderates, which maybe Outsis is not that moderate. But anyways, in our last episode, our inaugural episode, Jess predicted that Trump wouldn't be able to control himself and that Vice President Harris would handily win the debate. I predicted that the expectations were so low that he would actually come out as sort of the winner here.

I was wrong. Jess was right. Jess, what are your initial thoughts about last night? I love a situation to lead with. I was wrong and you were right. So I feel excellent. Happens a lot. Not as good as I feel about the debate. But yeah,

She exceeded all expectations, no matter how low or high you felt. And I was in touch with some people who work with the campaign, people who have been at debate prep, and they said she's ready. And she was definitely ready for this. And the way that she did it was that she did not veer from her script.

At all. Whatever the question was, she was clearly prepared for topics writ large. This is what you say if the word immigration comes up. This is what you say if the word economy comes up. This is what you say if the word abortion comes up.

And she just took what the moderators were giving her and was able to weave it into something that made her look flat out presidential. And that was the bar she needed to pass. And we talked about this yesterday on our flagship episode, inaugural. She just has to talk to undecided voters. Like you and I don't really matter in terms of what she did last night. It's fun for us. It's gravy, right?

if she comes off as someone that we're really jazzed to be able to vote for. But there are, you know, tens of thousands of people scattered across six, seven states who actually needed to see what she had to offer. And they got to see something that she should be very proud of and that I'm proud of being a Democrat.

Yeah, it's interesting because it's just impossible to starch out your biases. I remember watching Bush versus Gore, that debate, and I thought Gore won it handily. And then the next day it was clear that Bush had won. And so just to look at some data here, there was a snap poll, CNN flash poll after the debate. And according to the people they surveyed,

Margin of error plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, which means they didn't survey. Okay, 605 registered U.S. voters who said they watched the debate. Republicans recruited to participate before the debate and were selected via survey of members. Anyways, SSRS opinion poll.

But this poll showed that 63% of people surveyed thought Harris had won and 37% for Trump. That is not only a wide margin, but what people, what people I think need to consider is that he could get on stage and kill a puppy, throw up and pass out. And he, 20% of people would say he won the debate.

And so for it to be 63-37 or for almost the ratio to be 2-1 means, quite frankly, in my view, she destroyed him. And the observation I would have about the debate, and I'm curious to get your thoughts, was I was worried that she was kind of out of shape. She hadn't been on a stage or a debate stage in a while. And I've always thought, whatever you think of him, he's actually quite good on his feet.

And the first 10 minutes, I thought my prediction was going to be right. She came across to me as nervous. And the first question, she just ignored the question and started breaking into talking points. And I think it was pretty obvious to the viewers. And then about minute 12 or 14, basically when the abortion question came up, the whole thing just pivoted. He became so sloppy and errant using words like China, China.

eating the pets, record inflation, Biden, Hunter. But in the same sentence, it was as if you were watching someone go from being a mediocre debater to an outstanding debater through the course of about 15 minutes. And the whole thing just entirely flipped. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I largely agree with that. I think it's kind of akin to when people go home when you're young and you've seen this, I'm sure, with your boys and they go home for the summer and then a kid comes back five inches taller. Yeah.

That's basically what happened to Kamala Harris live on stage. And I think it's meaningful that that transition happened while she was talking about women's reproductive rights. There is just no male proxy that is going to be as

meaningful and persuasive as hearing someone who's actually got the stuff that we're talking about discussing this kind of issue. And on top of the fact that it was a beautifully orchestrated answer and it hit all the right points about privacy, mind your own damn business. Tim Walz has been on TV absolutely destroying Trump about that. And I think he was right to say it. Like these weird guys don't know how to mind their own business.

But I wanted to touch on your first point about her response about the economy. So they started with the most important question. Are you better off?

today than you were four years ago. And Trump supporters and Trump himself will say, absolutely not, absolutely not. These are all the reasons. Most of that is a lie. But they've been pretty persuasive with it. And she chose not to jump on that. And I actually thought that she could have done it well. I think she could have put out a really thoughtful response about how we have made these gains.

But there's still more work to do and really hone in on inflation, which is what most people are thinking about when they look at a question like that. So I take your point on that issue. But her opportunity economy is something that's resonating with people. And I know why she wanted to get to that right away. The CNN poll is a really good poll. And I'd add to the mix, the Fox poll had it at 70%.

thought that she won. And we are an A-plus pollster, completely bipartisan, a Republican and a Democratic pollster work together on all of the Fox polls. And what was really cool to see were the focus groups. So the Washington Post had 24 undecided voters. Only two thought that Trump won.

CNN had another one. It was a very similar ratio. And they also had former Trump voters, 2016 and 2020 Trump voters, who just said basically, he doesn't have it anymore. And I couldn't follow it.

And that's what she really got him to do. You know, when she said, I invite you all to watch one of his rallies, you'll see a lot of really wild stuff. You'll see him talking about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter, which is funny. We were just talking about how he doesn't know the difference between political asylum and a mental asylum. And you'll notice that people are getting bored. And that's when he erupted inside. You could see he stood up taller.

And this rage came across his face because she had insulted his crowds. And there was no turning back from that. And then it became this litany of conspiracy theories. I have normal friends, right? People who don't pay attention like we do. And they're going to vote. They always vote. But they're not tuned in at the same level. They're texting me, what is he talking about with the eating of the pets?

And I know the story about the fake story about Haitian migrants who are here legally, who went to Springfield, Ohio for good jobs. And people said that they were eating fluffy and eating dogs. Right. But normal people who are saying, oh, there's a debate tonight. I should I should tune in.

are saying, what in God's name is this man talking about? Yeah. Beyond accusing her of being a Marxist and millions of criminals coming across him. I was really disappointed right out of the gates because I thought she could have handled the question much better and said, okay, market's touching all-time highs.

GDP growth since 2020, since we were elected, up 8.5%. The average across the EU is 3.5%. It's less than 2%. She just could have gone. She just could have showed up with receipts. She seemed sort of wobbly. But then she just really turned on the jets. And what I really appreciate was the debate prep because clearly they came up with a winning strategy, and it was the following. Get out your points. Get out your policy points. And then end your statement, Vice President, with,

with a bear trap. Say, oh, and I didn't inherit $400 million from my father. Oh, and this is a convicted criminal. Oh, and his crowd sizes, they are bored and exhausted and they leave. Because rather than responding to anything around the policy points, he would then take half of his time

to respond to this, what he saw as a slight against him and his ego. And he was constantly on his heels. And when he would make these outrageous statements or call her a Marxist or crimes, she realized they were so ridiculous or so inconsequential, she wouldn't respond.

I mean, it's like Muhammad Ali used to say. He said, every fight I've won, I haven't won in the ring. I've won outside the ring training. The fight was over. I had either won or lost before I showed up in the ring. And I feel like the people who prepped her, I heard the people that prepped him were trained

where Representatives Gabbard and Gates, that's not the people I would have had prepping me. But anyways, whoever prepped her did an outstanding job. Get your policies out, speak with emotion on issues around women, and then trigger him at the very end. And she did it three or four times, and it absolutely took him off his footing. And then the last thing

I'll say, and I'm curious if you, I feel like the two most consequential debates in history have happened in the, in presidential politics in the last couple of months. And the reason why the Biden debate will go down is the most consequential is because this one was so good, was so good that him dropping out because of the last one will be seen as the most consequential. And this will be the second most consequential because it looks as if

For the first time, people have what I'd call a reason to vote for her as opposed to the reasons what the Democratic Party keeps trying to convince people of is the reasons not to vote for him. Your thoughts?

Yeah, I want to piggyback on what you said about her throwing out these haymakers and then just kind of sitting back and not doing anything. She was doing something. They practiced the split screen very clearly. What type of facial expressions she would be making while he was talking. And that's if you go online today, everything that's being shared is around those kinds of memes, right? Like the face that your wife makes at you when you come home drunk, right? Mad parents.

What did you just say? That's the look I get Monday through Thursday, just so you know. Anyways, go ahead. That's very English of you to be incorporating it into the weekday activities. So she was actually alert and responding throughout all of it.

And he's usually the one that's making a face that is resonating with people. Like, his supporters love that dopey thing that he does. But she clearly was winning the face game. And because this is Raging Moderates, and we should talk about something moderate, what I was really heartened to see. So going into the debate, there were 48% of undecided voters who felt that they wanted to know more about Kamala Harris. Only 18% said the same about Trump. They're like, we know who Donald Trump is. And frankly...

I don't really like him. I don't need to know more. I may vote for him, but I'm kind of done with this. So she had the room to grow in terms of this. And I saw that in one snap survey that her approval rating had jumped up with undecideds from 30 to 48. Now, if she can get that over 50...

I think she's going to be in very good shape. And, you know, you usually get if you get a good debate bound, sometimes it can be 1.5, 1.7 points. It's hard to see a scenario in which she isn't capable of that happening. I don't know where that maps out. If it is to happen, maybe we are just so polarized that the needle can't be moved. But I think she gave it her absolute best shot at being able to make this as consequential as you said it is.

So just trying to relate this to the markets, essentially Donald Trump or Trump Media and Technology Group, which is a publicly traded company that is essentially the holding company for Truth Social, Donald Trump's social network. It has a market capitalization even today of 3.3 billion. And be clear, this is not a business. It makes no money. Its user base is tiny and not growing, and it has no revenues, but it effectively loses hundreds of millions of dollars a year. This is not a business. What it's become is a tracking stock.

for the likelihood that Trump is re-elected. And the assumption is that one, if he is re-elected, he'll figure out some kleptocratic way of forcing everybody to use this platform or figuring out a way to get the shareholders whole there, because he's a large shareholder here. It's also a bit of an indirect way of giving him a campaign contribution. But what it's effectively become is a tracking stock for the likelihood that Trump or what the likelihood the market believes is

is the percentage likelihood that he'll be reelected. And this morning, it opened up about 15% down. As we stand here today or right now, it's 12.5% down. And it's hit a new, I believe it hit a new 52-week low here. So the marketplace and the billions of points of data that the marketplace tries to absorb and then spit back and answer is essentially saying the likelihood that he is elected president, according to the markets, is 12.5% less likely as of this morning.

That sounds good. And the betting markets on the race itself shifted in real time as well. She got a three-point bump in it. So we'll see what Nate Silver has to say when he puts out his next forecast. But yeah, I mean, for somebody who...

says or his claim to fame, I guess, is that he understands the economy, that business loves him, the markets love him. They've certainly been giving him a big old slap in the face, right, between the people actually speaking out, the company, the CEOs that are backing him and the way that the market has performed. You know, I don't I think the way that she threaded the needle was great, but she could have just stood up there and like you threw out a few great stats and just

yelled like Dow 41k, just kept shouting it at him as he tried to sputter through all of this. So, you know, he's one of those live by the markets, die by the markets. But 12 and a half percent, that's a big shift for 90 minutes of action. So as we wrap up here, what would your advice, do you think, given that she's riding this high, the kind of controlled,

Quite frankly, not speaking to very many people at all, putting the narrative through a controlled filter, it has worked really well. Should she continue to be somewhat scarce, or do you think this is an opportunity and a moment for her to go on offense and start speaking to the press more frequently?

Oh, I'm full offense on this. I think that she, it has proven out that their strategy worked thus far, and we'll have to look at the bounce and see how the race looks in kind of a week or two to see the real effect of it. But I think that she's someone that really thrives off of her mojo. You know, when she's feeling good, she can do it. And so I would, you know, sign me up right now. Leslie Stahl, what's going on? Like, could I sit down with you? Hey, Leslie. Hey, Les. Hey.

Hey, girl. Hey, girl. Yeah, I think it's time for that. And, you know, joint interviews, solo interviews more. I think town halls would be fantastic. She really has.

I don't want to say this in a disingenuous way. She's very good at being empathetic and she's a very good listener. And you can tell that she's actually processing what people are saying because it is possible to can a town hall response. You know, when someone says to you, my kid died of a fentanyl overdose and you're suddenly screaming about

migrants poisoning the blood of America. That is a transition that other people have made. So I want it all. And it's, what is it, 56, 55 days to go. I'm emboldened. What do you think about the press strategy?

I think she's found her footing. She should definitely get out there. But I've always thought that the press is disappointment and the talking points that she's not speaking to enough people. My view is this is about winning, not pleasing the media or the few of the chattering class that believe she should be talking more. What you said at the very beginning, I think, is really true. And that is we assume everyone gives a shit about politics. I would describe the majority of voters as me in my 20s and 30s. And that is I voted, but I didn't even think about it until about...

the morning of. I just didn't care about politics. I voted, but I didn't care. And I think that's how, you know, not the majority, but a large segment of voters, especially the undecideds. I can't imagine you're really in the politics or think about this a lot and be undecided. So I'm sort of, I don't know, I would kind of go pick, if you will, a Goldilocks strategy. Anyways, just a public service announcement as we wrap up here.

It supposedly is safe for your dogs and cats in Illinois. You're going to be fine. They're going to be fine. Ohio.

Anyways, with a special episode, an emergency pod. This has been Raging Moderates with Jessica Tarlow and Scott Galloway. We will have a new episode next Tuesday, breaking down sort of what happened over the course of the next few days. Hopefully, we'll have some more polling data that really kind of dissects the ramifications of the debate. Jess, have a good rest of the day. You too. See you later.