Raging Moderates - The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night
52:28 Share

How is amErica a lot of fear, certain products that are harmful .

and banned in other countries.

like don't tell care about us. This we got explained to me. We unwrapped some fda policy and a little halloween Candy and search for some simple answers.

This is where things get a little bit complicated. And I just I feel a mom blog coming for me for even saying that because they stop complicated for new episodes every wednesday. Follow wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome raging modern at some sky gallery .

and i'm just karlov. How are you just i'm really good, good. How are you?

I don't believe you .

and to it's sure my algorithm doesn't hate me anymore. I like coke. I piled again.

I am having the best time. I don't know, just wants to spare me or what. But no, it's genuine.

So I can't tell if this election that i'm not older and wiser in this selection really is a consequence tile and there's reason to be stress or i'm just older and stressed over anything. And I found the only thing that helps as I listen to eighties music that plays over, like peanut s cartoons.

And that really comes me down, especially the cure and all the peanuts character's dancing that brings me a moment of calm, also the travelling mulberry. StrAngely enough, their music seems to come me okay. Today's episode of raging moderates were discussing what the campaign trail look like during the final week, what to watch out for an election night, and of course, will wrap up with our final predictions. The thing that is absolutely blow my mind is that pole that came out of iwa yeah and actually i'm going to let you take this because you're a pollster, you're so much Better at this than me. But explain for the listener is why that is significant and what IT is.

Why won't say that i'm Better at IT then you and I interested in your thoughts because I feel like I spent too much time cross tab diving or what called. But J. M. Sala, who is the poster there in IOS, is widely considered one of the top holders in the country, certainly the top one in IOS and probably the top one in the country for most people.

And I think there is going to be, depending on the outcome tuesday night, there is going to be another reckoning with the polling industry that seems to have been caught on, quote, hurting all of these polls like no one wants to be an outlier in anyway. So they're just telling us, like fifty different languages. This thing is really tight.

This thing is tired me, is one point of energy this way, one point the other way, and and cells or comes out with her final IOS pole that has calmuck heroes up three dont trap twenty twenty by eight points. So this is a significant swing. And I think he was up like eighteen on biden before biden left the race, which is not that surprising because a lot of people felt like biden should have left the race.

Um so maybe then you take IT down to an actuality. He would be like up eight to ten, something that you would feel as more Normal. But this is a complete earthquake.

In the polling conversation, a lot of people wanna dismiss IT, but most of the pulse ers and commentators to know what they're talking about are looking at this as a harbinger of a trend. So even if Donald trump wins by five points, she's eight points off on this. That's still a really shitty result for Donald trump and what he needs in all of this.

And I would be indicative of the fact that Harris should be winning wisconsin and michigan and probably pencil mania. And the big underlying story in the poll was the gender gap, which we've been talk to him about a lot. A haris up twenty with women, up twenty eight points, with women who are affiliated with no party, who who quote independence.

But the thing that was blowing everyone's mind is the grani gap. So harasses up to the one with seniors, with female seniors. And he did a ton of interviews over the weekend and he was a ted Miller on the buller podcast.

And I I would really recommend everyone listen to IT if if you're getting know her a little bit and hearing a deeper er diamond methodology. But he was talking about how I was abortion ban came into effect. So IT was litigated through the courts, and IT actually was implemented over the summer.

So this is fashion people's mind, he said. These older women are not only looking at a world where their daughters and their granddaughters are less free than they were, which Frankly pisses anyone off right, no matter what the subject is um abortion, a health care issue or otherwise. But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion, typically pro life people, and what people think of as health care.

And now that we live in a world where you can have a miscarriage and be denied care for that, people are saying, like, how dare you lump this in with abortion? And eye has this very restrictive ban that that came into effect just a few months ago. And there are other factors that could be playing into this like tariff s have hurt farmers really hard.

That started under trump h and printing did continue underbit the soybean farmers in particular. And one kind of wild garden, this that I was wondering if you thought had any impact, is tim walls. Because you would think that tim walls would be someone that was very resonant with an, I were voting this, and if they thought maybe clamor was A A san Francesco lefty, that walls would have felt like a moderating factor in all of this.

But net, net, my mind is blown. And what was really interesting for those who want to dismiss IT, and I thought IT up yesterday, I was on fox a couple times on sunday. We did Normal programing in the leader to the election. There was a pull out that trump is only up five in kansas, only up three in ohio and in nebraska s second congressional district of how there's one vote in nebraska that is separate a commons up twelve and I believe biden only one IT by seven or eight so that speaks to a regional shift versus just ancelles or is out over her skills. What do you think about all of the things that I said?

So first of I I think there's more than a kernel, a bushel of truth than everything you believe that I believe the issue is we are absolutely Cherry picking data makes us feel Better about ourselves or .

Better about .

there's that right? Its confirmation confirmation bias com crazy. So IT wasn't the iole le IT.

Was that this woman ancestor who is from the heart land? SHE doesn't live in L. A. Or new york in IT. Has this a knowing habit of being remarkably correct with her polls arguably the best poster in the nation? And SHE caught .

obama's rise and trump s rise yeah and .

doesn't appear to have a bias um appears to be doing what you supposed to be doing and for Harry of three or four units that would be like of son, a pole came out in florida and showed her up by almost outside the margin of error. And if this in anyway as a harbor of what's going on, it's just exceptional good news. And then I look at holy market, yes, I was going to and I am still trying.

I'm thinking about doing that today, but I want to make wednesday morning either really good or really bad for me. So I am wages out of money for me on Harris one, because I do think she's gona win. The two, supposedly I I know a lot of media is looking at this thing, and I like the idea of giving her a little bit of a bump.

And also, I think i'd told you this, he is on a risk justice basis, is a great bed right now because if you assume it's a coin fat right now, the odds are thirty nine point six percent likelihood that he wins. Meaning for to get a million dollars back, you have to be three hundred and ninety six thousand dollars. Now if I had bigger balls last week, and i'd done this last week when I said I was going to do that, I would have only needed to waiter or three hundred and thirty three thousand, and I would have got three to one.

I would have got a million books back. Now her odd have dramatically increased on poly market, which I think is an underline bias, because the people who are likely Younger, or I am more charm. But the fact that even these sites are seeing moments with her, I was big.

And the thing that we talked about, tony hencoop, the thing you mentioned, I heard that we have three hundred thousand people on swing states doing what I love, the terminal souls, to polls, helping people get to the value box, and that they have summer between thirty and fifty thousand. So we're running somewhere between six and ten to one in terms of actual ground game in the swing states. And then, and I mentioned this last time, my friend Whitney tilson says all of his friends on the ground are saying that the latina vote is more energize.

The thing you haven't mentioned that I think is going to play a role is not one, not even two, but three of the most recent trump appearances. IT feels if in the last three months he has aged ten years, the last one I saw of him, he had that when I saw, remember when joe biden popped up to do the stupid garbage comment? First await. I forgot he was still here and he he was, if he was standing a video to his grandkids as he was going in the hospital, is the time we .

made the right decision.

Oh, yes, unfortunate. We made IT six months to late, in my view, but anyways, or maybe six months to late. But trump did not last rally.

He looked adult. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice.

Maybe he's just exhausted. I don't IT doesn't matter. But he has always presented himself as much more robust fairly.

He comes across as more robust as biden, but the last few times i've seen him speak, as amErica is basically said, will take, will take, obnoxious will take, offensive will take whatever is someone whose policies we we won't agree with on the by inside what we will not tolerate is old and weak. That's IT. That's we kick by, not of the risk came across this older week.

IT feels like the momentum huge through the debate and the momentum flip back to trump dramatically over ensuing three weeks. And I would argue in the last ninety six hours, maybe the last five days, IT feels like the momentum has swung g back substantially towards terris. I can't tell if the only people I know knocking on doors or Harris people reporting back positive news that I wanted hear, but and that my algorithm is serving me to shit I wanted see, I went on diary of A C.

A. With Stephen bartlett, is the biggest podcasts in the U. K.

And this is incredibly impressive, man, to talk about the election and the comments IT, which is ten to one people rAiling against me, you know, the same commons of, does these people are not modern study at? A, the last week has been all calm. A, also, even, did you see the one else catch?

Yeah, I thought, I thought he was so charming and funny.

And kudos to them. Kudos to the writers who figured. People naturally aren't that funny themselves. Some of them are. I thought actually obama had decent, uh, instincts around humor.

But the writers, I get, you get the sense shot spoil alert, that s and all writers are probably pretty aggressive, and that they SAT down and they said, are I this is serious. We have got to make our likable, intelligent and and it's got to be funny appointed. And they just nailed, I mean, they just nailed that he came across as, like, a funny poking fun at yourself, but not enough. While the positioning trim and a keep comella and Carry on ala .

I an me a oh my .

gosh that was IT was IT was wonderful. I keep hearing about the ground game every time I see him. I think, wow, he looks older and older and older yeah.

I think the arsenal moment was definitely worth the fcc violation. So and me he had to give trump, I think, like a minute and a half commercial during a car race yesterday or something. I thought I don't think they care.

Okay, let's take a quick break to stay with us.

Support for property comes from wondering, and their new podcast at the best idea yet, did you know that mcDonalds happy mail has sold over a thirty five billion boxes possible, making the best selling meal in history, where that levice five one genes would have never been invented without the california gold rush.

Or that broken stocks were actually designed over two hundred and fifty years ago, introducing the best idea yet, a new podcast about the surprising origin stories of the products you are obsessed IT and the people who brought them to life with stories of peak, your curiosity and off you fun and surprising anette, like how super mario only exists because intendo couldn't get the rights to pop from the happy male to post dispensers to air Jordans every week. On the best idea yet, you'll be able to discover the surprising stories behind these viral products and more, and you'll also be picking up real business insights along the way. Follow the best idea yet on the wondering APP. Or whereever you get your power out, you can listen to the best idea yet early and ad free right now by joining wondering plus.

Support for project comes from queen is getting colder out there and that's a great opportunity out a little life back in your world job. If you're feeling pretty mad about your sweater collection jackets and other potentials, IT might be time to take a look at what the mongolian kashmir sweater started. Just fifty dollars and they have a huge line of a fall ready items beautiful either jack, it's cut sock and um and so much more plus quint is the only work of factories that you save ethical and responsible manufacturing practices. Is Caroline over here at the property team has gone to try outs and SHE loves her twins sheet, says they are super comfortable and was pleased by the Price point you can upgrade your wardrobe with pieces made the last with quints got a queen stock com slash property for free shipping on your order and three hundred sixty five day returns at Q U I N C E dom slash property to get free shipping and three hundred sixty five day returns queenstown come slag property.

Hi, there s got galway.

And i'm just like.

we are the host of raging moderates and we have an episode out that we don't want you to most.

My god, you know, many people I run IT through every day who literally have not heard ninety five percent of the crazy ride that is out to come out of chrome mouth or come out of people at his camps mile. And so is like you should keep putting out in people's face to let folks know what he's saying, what he's planned in to do, and you should keep drilling home your method, your plan for the academy like, you know, especially her, because he's only may run for one hundred, one hundred days.

That was the one. And only charlie in the god is best known as a cohoes of the national syndicated radio shows, the breakfast club. He's also known for his bold on filter commentary on politics, culture and social issues. Head over to the raging moderate feed or every you gets your podcast to hear the rest of the interview.

Welcome back. We, of course, had a great guest because I believe you know more friends with them. We had charlemain the god on to hear a quick clip from that appearance with charm in the god.

I god, you know many people I want IT through everyday who literally have not heard ninety five percent of the crazy reddick that has come out to come out to trust mouth or come out to people in his camps mouth. And so it's like you should keep pretty and in people's face to let folks know what he's saying, what he's planned in to do and you should keep drilling home your message, your plan for for the economy like, you know, especially her because he's only may run for one hundred a hundred days.

So to find the rest of that interview type and raging moderate, whether you get your podcast and hit follow, we have more election coverage coming out of police subscribes. You don't miss an episode right enough of the mid pot address. Let's get on with the show. So both campaigns have been Chris rossing across battle ground states.

We had hero wrapping up her message on the ellipse and appearing on sl bit, making a gaffe that republicans jumped all over trump dressing up on halloween as a garbage truck driver, and ark junior declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw, again, yet another unforced air. What other moments are? Are there any other moments than these that stand out to and do any these moments do you think make a difference?

I mean, those were the big ones. Obviously, you don't want to get into the menu shy of the specific things that he said at a rally. You know, the yona to couple lines. I do think that the prominent role of R F, K in health and safety is something that locky matters a lot to people. And I think that because they are the island of misfit toys, which I know is how you describe your business as well.

My staff, not my business, my .

staff.

This functional, I always say in our reviews that we this person isn't doing this. One of my, if they could do this while they're be working at google, not for you here at this joy back. Get on its pod test.

Anyway, love my staff. Love my staff. Go head.

So because you have this wild cast of characters, and you can get a lot of the people that you would want to be out there, you end up with a showcase that has been a White hok hogan, R F K, junior toy, gabbard saturday. And I think for a certain piece of the base that's really resonant.

But R F K junior, for a Normal person, is really like a nath's a, you know, because he's not even representing a departure from the democratic party that I think is resonant with a lot of people. The reasons that had happened sense, because he holds these kinds of beliefs about health because of what a terrible person he has been, morally, himself, van, and what he put his wife, former wife, threw and ended up resulting in her suicide. And just a weird stuff, right, like having a whale heads strapped to the top of his station wagon and dead bear cubs in central park at seta.

And I think that you trump this time around can't say i'll be surrounded by great people because forty, forty cabinet secretaries who said that they're not for trump anymore so then you think, okay, well, maybe there's this other layer of like not the worst people in the world, but kind of OK people that might go into the administration and listen, people love a fancy title. I'm sure he will be able to get some good people from the business community to go work for him, people who have served the country and feel that this is their patriotic c duty. But R F K juniors views on vaccines and health safety are so far outside the mainstream. I am sure you see the latest one that he wants .

to remove florida from the water.

Yeah, not only does IT does water turn frogs trans or something like that, now we want to get florid out of our water. And tim Scott was being interviewed, the center from south oline, and he was asked about this, and he tried to do the usual dance of like a, you know, I don't I don't know what you're talking about, Bobby.

And he turns out that he cosponsor to bill to make sure that there was floria and water and underserved communities in twenty eighteen because guess what, florida is really important. Now, I take a two and a half year old to the dentist. There they are talking you about floria at one right? And I think that I will really hurt trust candidacy to have that be someone that we can identify as a harbinger of cordoned professional's ism that he would have in there.

And then to add to IT that he would also be in charge of women's health, which is frightening, to have someone who so first all disrespectful towards women anyway. But this weird pro life democrats, sometimes he used me for a choice. I guess that he says that he's pro life now. But someone who has never taken any interest in this issue whatsoever all moderated the party on IT since he switched over.

I thought that was another tactical air. I thought that you should have said we're going to put him on .

something around the environment.

Well, well, I forget who was the who was the guest when you and our panel, some bill mark together, which is how we met, how we how we felt, how I felt love and just how of what who is our guess? Who is the third person or .

the the person was almo and molestation sa.

and then you .

made the interview. IT was one. Marr is still only two people. IT was like post coffee.

So was only I still, it's still only two. That was easily the most impossible I sit on to talk about post covered with the guy who with with calmo, as you started as apology tour, that was the most uncomfortable T. V. I think i've ever. And you got to bail because whatever fox dos want IT on anyway.

it's molested. A rosa who was who worked for combo is the .

other person, yeah, who worked for.

did understand the whole thing. A IT was a .

thing yeah. And I said, oh, I know this, but I met, I met ark junior back stage. He's very handsome.

He's very charming. He's very likable and he started texting, can I come on your pod? And I thought, yeah, sure.

Why not? I check with the team and the team was a very sounding. Now we're not going to platform this guy. And I think they made that.

You know, my island here is the wisdom of crowds is always good for me to check in, because occasionally, actually quite frequent, they get IT right and I get a wrong, and he seems like he's just got and crazy. And the interesting thing, the reason I bring IT up is that he was the guess. He did the long form m interview at front, and I thought bill marr tried to be as kind as possible, but asked hard questions.

And tom in from mynn just made him look like an at, in my opinion, just point out, and consistently left and right. And then R K. Junior, you know, there's he supposed to come out for the conversation afterwards.

He didn't come out. He refused to come out. Yeah, heard.

No.

yeah. He didn't come out. He was supposed to come out.

And I was a baby.

Well, his comes person. And what's interesting, as I just a couple days ago, I got a text message comes person saying we need to speak and my I merely text back what's up and having a background but I can't imagine I have no idea what they want for me anyways. This is again another another absolutely um unforced forced they're pivoting through the swing states here. Do you think there's anything if you're advising them? I mean, this is pretty much at this is a good time, right?

yeah. I mean.

it's an action if you are advising either the candidates anything they should do tomorrow to put a Cherry on the top. Is that kind of like the ball is out of their hand?

I've been, I think for trump, he is facing, as you said, a rally scene that is not tip top. It's emptier. People are less engaged and he he is descending a bed and if he can muster R A few lines of unity or even recently around his economic message, mean that has been the big problem here.

He has totally matched him in terms of whose best to handle the economy because he won't talk about anything Normal, right? He's advertising on anti trans issues and he's giving no specifics on his economic plan anyway when he does talk about IT. So I would say to him if you could do all of your rallies and really be talking about the economy that be best for you for commute, you know, you can only do with what has been working for her staying on mesage.

And I did love that line that he had to shrewd when he did the town hall with him, where he said, you know, there are people who say you're relentlessly on message, you sick your script, you you can't weave IT all or whatever. And he said, I say, you're welcome. That's my response to you.

You know, you want somebody that understands why they are. They are there to help the american people. These are the ways that i'm going to do IT. So I wanted to stick to that message, but I do love when SHE first all like genuinely asked people for their vote.

I have found that would be one of her more compelling sides where SHE says i'm taking nothing for granted and i'm here asking for your vote and I want more as many of those human moments as possible in the last few hours of all of this, where he says, I know that we are building a coalition of people who are strange bedfellows. You know that we have these republicans like you have list training and A O C back in the same ticket. That's rare.

And that SHE will be a president for all americans and that her cabinet will reflect that. And that SHE is not too pride fall to change the way that he thinks about things and to take advice from people that SHE wouldn't typically do so. And I want to hear that kind of stuff because I think people are looking for the reassurance that if they've gone out on a lam, like if you are a republican in iwa, that is going to end up with a commoner's presidency, you have gone out on a limb to do that. And he really needs to continue talking about how she's going to meet them in the middle and risk what they've done. Before we break.

just a quick review of the most recent new york time sana college poll and nevada a the poll, the new york times sana poll has harassed by three in north CarOlina, a haris by two wasson haris by two, georgia haris by one pencillings ia tide, michigan tide, arizona trump up by four. The way I read this and may have the math correctly, but then doesn't IT all come down to pennsylvania. I guess if yeah, I think it's always .

but he has more I mean, what their emphasizing is SHE has more paths than he does, like the sun belt is still in play for her and he needs pencil venia. But IT has to go through the georgian north CarOlina in a af, and he's having to spend way more time in north CarOlina than he would have hoped might take away from the near time sana pole.

But I was excited to see back to Normal levels of democratic support with black voters and latta o voters. And you know, the gender gap there, I think IT was the gender gap they were were saying was the least. And pencil LV ana, which surprised me.

We'll see how IT all bears out. But you know, i'm still concerned about minority support for the democratic candidate. And one other thing that popped up during the week, I don't know, you caught this gala, released a survey around enthusiasm. And democrats are right now more enthusiastic than they were in two thousand and eight with obama and ten points more enthusiastic with than republicans. I have you been feeling that I had honestly surprised me.

It's so hard because I live in london and i'm in a bit of a bubble around my social media algorithm and the people I talk to are so I shouldn't everyone I ve ve a lot of friends in our way one of my jewish friends are a very only protruding p but squaring trump and there's just not getting around IT there. I'm getting emails with, I check out this data.

Everyone sort of people are feeling almost a little bit the way to describe IT as beef about we can have two weeks ago, and people are starting to get their mojo back OK. Let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

Ever wonder why we like being scared? I would read a steffen king novel or watch just like a movie, and then feel compelled to sleep with the lights on for several nights and found myself asking, what's the hell? What's going on when people voluntarily seek out things that fighting .

them this week .

and not .

explaining a boot? Why fear .

can be fun, follow unexplainable for new episodes. Every wednesay .

candidate trump, as you've likely heard, Jimmy, the over ten window up a few inches at a rally in medicine square garden on sunday with racist, sexist VGA wasn't even a particularly good joke and its seta commentary from speakers. But did you hear the really weird part, the speaker of the house, mike Johnson, part a nice looking guy. I just a little beautiful face with a glasses.

Get a little yeah, that was also weird. But that's not actually what i'm talking about. Just a little later, trump turned to speaker Johnson and he said this, we can take the senate pretty easily.

And I think with our little secret, we're going to do really well with the power rate. Our little secret is having a big impact. And I have a secret.

I'll tell you what IT is when the races is over. That comment is making people nervous because trump does have a plan for if he loses this election. A reporter did some digging into IT. We're going to talk to him today, explained little secrets every weekday, wherever and whenever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back. Let's switch gears. The battle ground state, georgia, michigan in north CarOlina, in a mica called fairly quickly, but we could be waiting for welfare. There is zoomed of out of pennsylvanian misconstrue, specially with to close race. Justice gets a little bit to predictions.

Do you think there's any potential surprises? You're obviously iowa would be a big anything surprises or any my my dad is one way or the other. We're going to two or three states pop up on the screen with Steve cHennai or the hammer who buy the ways the lovely guy I met him and the and is a .

very nice man harbor guy. I M I H R dian.

Let me give below tip. As someone who is an H R nights are, it's okay. Objectify people. As long as you objectify men, then it's okay anyway, A N bill hammer is a tall drink, lemonade.

So what? What states do you think might be surprises here? One where the other? Obviously I would. That would be a shocker.

And any surprise any states that are? Traditionally, Harris thinks he has in a bag that could potentially pop up. Trump.

I don't think so. You know, obviously, if north CarOlina, georgia going inheritance is direction, then we know it's a big night in her favor. Trump really needs to hold those.

What i'm still curious about is that inefficient vote if he's running up the tally in new york and florida. I mean, we actually have been talked about florida. If haris is performing well in florida, that will also be a harbinger of of something to come. And obviously a huge, let you know, a and puri can specifically population there. But if trump is banking votes in new york, florida, california, these places he's been going when he was in new mexico, all of this is so bizarre.

If you're actually being strategic about IT and I get IT, it's fun when the popular wrote republicans should try at sometime I think think that only would be done at once in the last eight elections, but that will be at all the A Y interesting if IT IT ends up that republicans somehow win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. But IT will be a very port reflection on the electoral strategy that susi wives, whose very, supposedly very, very good at her job, has taken with all of this. And I get that he's hard to control and he wants a rally and atmosphere and he wants to go to coach.

But that's something that i'll be looking for and also is a fact down ballot because new york should decide control of the house. Um and we talked to at those close congressional races last week on the podcast you know trump is not a left for most of these people that are in these tight races. So inefficient vote is what is fascinating me currently.

One thing that's clear, this race is expected to be the most contested in history, trumps zori toying with the public trust in the results. Both campaigns have teams of lawyers prepped, ready to go last have been filed for weeks now, and we could be saying legal fights of results for months. If the margins were, then there are even zombie loss of its cases that trump could bring back if there is a chance they might shift the vote.

What do you make of all these legal chAllenges? Just have you spoken to many these lawyers? How do you see the does one side have an edge over the other? Will the .

democrat have the edge and the republicans even openly talk about that? Marco lias, who is our top a elections lawyer, and you can see he goes on emos MBC pretty regularly, is a big target. And the republicans just talk about them. They are like, we didn't have a mark allies in twenty twenty. And I don't think they have one guy, but they certainly have a Better Operation this time around.

But they're throwing everything they can at the law and seeing what sticks are in part of the problem is the way that what they are perceiving or what they are Frankly lying about as being unfair election practices are getting amplified on social media. And either if they are getting community noted or not, it's not making a difference to people and they're running with this argument like there was this whole thing about that a bunch of ballots were just getting dropped off by this random person outside the door. There was an allegation, I carney, in pennsylvany and IT turns out that IT was a postmaster that was doing his job, or they went after bucks county because there was singing with election interference, that there were long lines.

No baby, sometimes there are just long lines, right? Like a lot of people showed up to vote and they were undershaw. And in georgia, they had to come into the courtroom to defend this.

There were more boxes for dropping off male baLance. You can bail your ballot in, or you could put in in a drop box, which a lot of people like to do, like my sister in california. That's how they vote, that they go and drop off their ml ballot in person.

And there were, I think, four new drop boxes that were added. And republicans were saying that I was illegal. They were brought from the judge, I think was like A M saturday morning. Judge was like, what are you talking about? Like everything has.

And i'm not saying that it's impossible that there's some minor fraudful somewhere, but the theme is always that republicans want less people to be able to vote, and they hide behind this facet of election integrity. But we know that election integrity and twenty twenty looked like calling a brad reference burker and threatening him, you know, trying to stop the count in a izon a and continue the count in in pennsylvania. And it's really so disheartening.

And i've been reading a lot of articles about former trump ers and why turn them off. And an interesting one, actually. Or part of IT husband, he went to left on abortion, which I never expected to see.

I would think, you know, getting river the way that would have been this huge miracle. But they feel that is too laugh on IT. But a lot of IT is about this disrespect for the electoral process and not being able to take A W.

It's more than a disrespect. The elector process is a lack respect for institutions, which is a lack of respect for the country. A country is a series of structures, protocols, legal entities.

They create an infrastructure. They can impose taxes, uphold laws, prosecute, defend those laws, and set up an Operating system. In this instance, fifty different Operating systems, fifty different from protocols, to try and create a diversity around the process to maintain election integrity such that no one system can be hacked. And when governor, the scientists spends three million dollars for current election integrity that is so cynical, there's no reason that flared and need to spend three million dollars on what it's like, sixty contested votes.

And I have a close friend who I went to college with, who I would describe as a reasonable, intelligent guy in his entire instagram reels last few days, has been, what to do if you're worried about your vote being counted and he's a pretty hard court trumper, and I call them, I said, you realize your exciting violence. What do you mean by that? And I said, look, there's absolutely no evidence that there's anything more than point zero zero zero one percent of election fraud.

Both republicans and democratic commissioners have done a great job having fidelity for the constitution in their responsibility. There are few processes that involve humans that i've had the same integrity as our elections in basically last time, we have kind of a split decision, a republican or conservative supreme court justice said, okay, bushes, the president. And then, and what has become a very unusual move of ice? President girl conceded the election, recognizing he didn't want have violence.

You don't have a revolution. And all of this, we don't we don't trust A C, D. C.

We don't trust american pediatric association. We don't trust the, you know, the secret service when our guy gets shot out. We don't we don't trust any of these institutions. The fed, jesus Christ, the fed has put on a fuck and master class here.

But this notion that you can't trust institutions, you need to trust your emotions in your feelings and what you get on a social media feed that is purposely there to take you further to the left, further to the right in in radio. So it's more than just a lack of trust in elections. But this, I mean, you just see, is just so naked.

If we win its democracy at work, and if we lose, it's election fraud and our institutions, and you can already see on these these ridiculous social media feed, h somehow lying, the groundwork for cases, you know, someone burned the ballot box, okay, I believe that. What on earth does that have to do with a conspiracy around election fraud? Someone little ballot box on far, okay, you win.

Is there any evidence of that ballot box have more votes for Harris than for trump? It's just it's so I mean, it's it's what the head of propaganda for the cremmen set back in the days of a global chaff that this is how we win. We just flood this one with this motion.

We make no one trust institutions, which is latten for. No one trust amErica anymore. And we just overwhelmed with information left and right and just confuse the shit out of them. And they no longer believe in their government or in their country.

But IT is this lack of respect for our institutions, especially I think I went crazy and cover, I think people kind of mentally unwell, and we're so upset about what was going on to know what to trust and said all, we can trust the C. D. C.

And when the when the american pediatric association says there is no correlation between these vaccines that we can see and mile cardio. And teenage boys are in large hearts. No one wants to believe them because they know somebody whose kid had any rithmetic.

Okay, fine, but that doesn't you know that that doesn't mean there's a there's a there there. So I find all of this ferry dangerous. There was just another example of there really is a double standard here. You can tell it's going to be, I mean Carry lake sort of and bodies this right that an area zone voters, I just can't get up with the fact that they decided to put her up. That is going to be my pointman. That is if if things go wrong for us tomorrow, i'm just going to i'm just gna watch the numbers coming over and over on the gaea s lake senate contest because my understanding is things are probably gonna be represented.

Guy eagle, but so when 日本 ago.

it's going to yeah that's probable.

I mean, people yeah people are doing IT, but I hopefully you can pull out as on the looks to for a reno.

And what do you think do you think there's any chance in the supreme court if something ends up in the supreme court that theyll impact the election?

I mean, I don't want to to say no because the supreme court has been quite activist and activist in trumps direction. Pretty sure that all of them don't want to to have anything to do with this and that they'll try to keep IT in lower courts as much as possible. But again, like IT has been very Normal, calling errors could lead to huge winds on either side of this.

And I continue, if I, if I was a praying goal, I would pray for a decisive when most of all, and trump actually, this weekend for the first time, acknowledge that he could lose, like he said something like, yeah, I got, you know, we could lose, we shouldn't lose. You know what IT could happen? And there was a report, I think axial, that susie wiles had put out a mammo to the campaign that said, you know, we're optimistic, tic, but no matter what happens, blab law blaw. And that's a bit of a different tone from the usual try triumph ism, and i'm sure they're think that are going away. And again, IT may happen, but even having a little glimpse into the fact that there is some standing that IT might not be a trump factory is a tiny bed hardening for me at this moment.

Okay, jess, this is, this is that it's go time, your prediction. And any new answer, any wrinkle around your prediction.

note ously optimistic that camera wins. Um one thing that I had been actually feeling a little bit Better about IT is there was some good polling for our our friend john tester in montana and that story about ryan SHE he is opponent who lied about getting shot in afghanistan, who ended who did the shooting IT was in a parking lot in a national park um that that story has actually been breaking through to people.

And I think that there's a lot of folks out there, especially in the age of trump, that are looking for good people to put in office, that they feel that there are some baseline level of OK that they're going to be if you have ethical and morally sound folks in office and and john has to, is that. And so i'm a little bit more hopeful about that still field that the rehab going to control the IT 把 was excited to see that。 And I think the democrats are gonna take the house back. What about you?

Yeah, I agree with you both the senate in the house, the markets are predicting that regardless of who wins a doesn't matter, that he will be a split government and that the populists in the media are always respected the impact one way or the other. And this sense that that's what the market is sign is that, yes, no one individuals going to have much time to get much done over .

the other because fun .

because it'll display government. Um my prediction is it's going to be a uh actually a decide of win for Harris. All of the all of the things i've seen breaking our way, the the the poll from seller and I absolutely blew my mind.

All of these self inflicted wounds you mentioned the story about tester IT just feels like all the atmospheric ics indicate whether it's on the ground reporting back from campus, sing with a smell of money to tender one people on the ground trying to turn out the vote. And again, I just might be in a bubble where I not only have a social media algorithm, but I A friend algorithm and people only sending me things that are going to make me feel Better. But I was pretty honest, I think, with myself in the two weeks leading up to the last four days, I seven days ago, I was pretty convinced the edge was distinctly trump.

And then these videos of him, which have been going around, showing that he's just old, even little stupid things like him, trying to open a door and having a tough time. I feel like age yeah the government, I feel like he's age ten years and last three weeks even. This is this Polly markets and i'm becoming addicted and like a kid trading crypto in just the time we've been pod jx.

The likelihood, according Polly market, that her swin the presidency has gone from a low of thirty eight point six percent to a high of forty three point two. And now it's back to forty two point three. I mean, the market is is so voluted around the stuff you can just feel feel attention.

But every piece of media i'm saying points to more people turning out. And then I think this will this race will be remembered for a couple things. One, if h her losses, I think bite is going to have some plaining that is, so to speak.

I think people just can be furious, the democratic party and by and the people around for not getting up to drop out sooner, that how on earth did we not run away with this? And I do think that if he loses, the thinks that they're going to be. Remember here is that this was the podcast election.

I think you're going on colour daddy and him going on rogan, or more kind of terms of identifying this new medium. And also, I think this is, you know, I hate when people say this is the election of women or whatever bit having raised boys, I just see the way we had a halloween party for my son. The party was supposed to be at nine P.

M. And the girl shop on time. They help clean up. Their costumes were perfect. They're just more organized. And I think you're just going to see, I think women have a big issue here and they're organized.

I just think women are onna show up because especially if you look at the demographics here, I think demographics are destiny. There's twelve million fewer people on the voter roles because they've died since twenty sixteen. There's twenty million new voters in the twelve million that have died generally are older, wider and more republican and the new voters that twenty million new voters are generally Younger, more nony.

And and I would I believe more um more progressive. And I think you're going to see that women showed up here and and we're just more organized across every age group in that lean's heroes. So i'm predicting I believe this is going to be heroes and it's going to be and it's going be decisive.

I love IT. I agree with you about the women showing up, and I do hope that a consequence of this though is not kind of brow beating men about the Victory, but figuring out a Better way forward to have a more baLanced party where everyone feels included because Young men have basically the same political beliefs as Young women. They're just not being spoken to in a way that is resonant um and that's on us. I love that that's .

we're going to leave IT alright that's all for the episode you for listening arragon moderates our producers are Caroline shaGreen and David toledo. Our technical director is true borus you can find raging moderates on its own feet every tuesday. That's right.

Raging moderates is on its own feet. What is real? Please follow us wherever you get your podcast. Or i'm sending an incredibly intelligent person who is almost six feet tolls and by the way, her husband's even bigger. Uh, you don't don't mess with the tar loves, just stay stay. People enjoy your evening on fox watch um cure videos or R M or tom pet if things get really scary I promised to calm you down.

Happy voting.

voting where this will still be america. And I just .

probably .

probably amErica ish.