cover of episode PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 15th, 2024: Israel Destroys Iran's Secret Nuclear Site & Tehran Promises Not To Assassinate Trump

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | November 15th, 2024: Israel Destroys Iran's Secret Nuclear Site & Tehran Promises Not To Assassinate Trump

2024/11/16
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Mike Baker: 以色列对伊朗的军事报复行动远不止摧毁了伊朗的防空网络和导弹计划,还摧毁了一个位于德黑兰南部20英里处的秘密核武器研究设施。该设施此前被认为不活跃,但在今年早些时候恢复了研究活动,包括计算机建模、冶金和爆炸物等工作,这些都可能用于研制核武器。以色列和美国的情报部门表示,此次袭击严重延缓了伊朗在过去一年中恢复核武器研究的进程。该设施此前是伊朗艾哈迈德核武器计划的关键部分,用于测试引爆核装置所需的爆炸物,但在2003年伊朗无限期暂停其官方军事核计划后被关闭。美国官员表示,伊朗在此地进行的科学活动可能为生产核武器铺平道路。尽管国际社会施压以色列不要袭击伊朗的核设施,但帕钦的这个地点并不属于伊朗已宣布的核计划的一部分。如果德黑兰承认这次袭击,他们也必须承认他们公然违反了《不扩散核武器条约》。此次袭击也是一个信息,表明以色列对伊朗的系统有深入的了解,即使是在对伊朗政府内部一小部分人保密的事情上。 在2020年美国总统大选前夕,伊朗官员向拜登政府保证不会暗杀特朗普。这一信息是在美国政府于9月份向德黑兰发出书面警告后做出的回应,警告称,他们将任何企图暗杀特朗普的行为视为伊朗的战争行为。虽然伊朗的信息没有由具体的官员签署,但白宫的消息人士表示,他们相信他们的警告已经传达到了伊朗的高级领导层。伊朗在其声明中没有承认曾经将特朗普作为目标,但重申了他们长期以来的立场,即特朗普及其政府成员因在2020年无人机袭击中杀害圣城军指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼而犯下了罪行。美国政府此前曾多次警告伊朗不要针对特朗普,但随着有关积极阴谋的新信息浮出水面,这一警告再次发出。8月份,美国联邦检察官指控一名巴基斯坦男子代表伊朗政权策划暗杀特朗普,促使美国政府加强了特朗普在竞选过程中的安全保卫。上周五,我们获悉,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队雇佣了一名51岁的伊朗国民,在9月份监视并最终暗杀特朗普,尽管该计划最终被挫败。情报官员将伊朗针对特朗普的多次阴谋描述为“持续进行的”。该政权长期以来还将特朗普第一届政府的成员作为暗杀目标,因为他们参与了对苏莱曼尼的袭击。由于这些威胁,美国政府一直在为前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥、前国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿和特朗普的伊朗问题特使布莱恩·胡克提供全天候的安全保护。伊朗外交部长本周早些时候首次正式回应了这些指控,称这些说法是“三流喜剧”。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Israel target a secret Iranian nuclear research facility?

Israel targeted the facility because it was part of Iran's covert nuclear weapons program, hidden from most of the Iranian government and international observers, and it was a significant threat to regional security.

What was the significance of the Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear site?

The strike significantly set back Iran's progress on resuming nuclear weapons research, destroying sophisticated equipment needed for creating plastic explosives around a nuclear device's uranium core.

Why did the Biden administration privately warn Iran about suspicious nuclear activity?

The Biden administration hoped that the warning would cause Iran to halt its nuclear research, reflecting a foreign policy strategy based on hope rather than direct action.

What was the response of the Iranian regime to the Israeli strike?

Iran denied any wrongdoing and continued to claim that its nuclear activities were for civilian purposes, avoiding any acknowledgment that could implicate them in violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Why did Iranian officials give written assurances to the Biden administration about not targeting Trump?

Iranian officials provided these assurances to distance themselves from assassination plots aimed at Trump, likely to avoid escalating tensions during the U.S. presidential election and fearing repercussions from a potential Trump victory.

How did the U.S. respond to Iran's alleged assassination plots against Trump?

The U.S. issued warnings to Iran, bolstered Trump's security, and provided round-the-clock protection for key members of Trump's administration due to ongoing threats from Iran.

What is Iran's stance on negotiations with the incoming Trump administration?

Iran has signaled a desire for direct diplomacy with Trump, possibly to mitigate the impact of his promised maximum pressure campaign on their economy and population.

Chapters
Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran in October targeted a secret nuclear research facility, significantly setting back Iran's nuclear program. The facility, located in Parchin, was crucial for developing nuclear weapons and was kept secret from most of the Iranian government.
  • Israel destroyed a top-secret nuclear weapons research facility in Iran's Parchin military complex.
  • The facility was involved in computer modeling, metallurgy, and explosives for nuclear weapons.
  • The strike significantly set back Iran's progress on resuming nuclear weapons research.
  • Iran's leaders kept the facility's activities secret to avoid violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin:

 

  • First, in some embarrassing news for the mullahs in Iran, a bombshell report reveals that Israel managed to take out a secret Iranian nuclear research facility during their retaliation against the Islamic regime in late October.

  • Then, we are learning that in the month leading up to the U.S. presidential election, Iranian officials gave written assurances to the Biden administration that they would not target Donald Trump for assassination.

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