cover of episode Timothy Snyder on Why Ukraine Can Still Win the War

Timothy Snyder on Why Ukraine Can Still Win the War

2024/9/24
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Timothy Snyder: 乌克兰人民的士气虽然低落，但他们战斗的决心不会轻易动摇，因为他们认为俄罗斯占领比对抗更糟糕。他们对美国的支持可能会因为国内政治而发生剧烈变化有清醒的认识，但他们仍然希望美国能够提供更多帮助。乌克兰在哈尔科夫战役中取得胜利，并收复了一些被占领的领土，这证明了他们赢得战争的可能性。美国低估了乌克兰赢得战争的可能性，这是一个战略性错误。从1945年以来，小国往往在战争中获胜，这与大国经常失败形成对比，美国和俄罗斯都曾经历过战争失败。俄罗斯经常在战争中失败，这与他们自认为强大并能赢得战争的认知相悖。乌克兰赢得战争的关键在于削弱俄罗斯的政治体系，而不是单纯地收复所有领土。如果美国停止支持，乌克兰可能会失去获胜的信心，这取决于美国对乌克兰的持续支持。俄罗斯输掉战争的条件是普京认为他们输了，或者普京下台。俄罗斯的兵员损失巨大，这将对其军事实力造成严重影响，而乌克兰则采取了保护年轻人的策略。乌克兰人认为每一代人都会比上一代人更好，因此他们试图保护年轻一代免受战争的伤害。乌克兰可以通过非直接对抗的方式赢得战争，例如打击俄罗斯后勤和在俄罗斯境内制造压力。普京和泽连斯基的处境和优势不同，普京可能直到最后一刻才意识到自己失败了，而泽连斯基则能更清楚地感受到支持程度。普京对俄罗斯士兵的伤亡漠不关心，而泽连斯基和乌克兰则非常重视。俄罗斯军队杀害士兵的顺序是：乌克兰男性公民，亚洲人，农村居民，现在开始征召城市居民。2022年秋季是乌克兰取得重大进展的时机，如果当时美国提供足够的援助，乌克兰可能已经取得更大的胜利。美国政府对乌克兰的援助过于拖延，并且缺乏保密性，这给了俄罗斯进行心理战的机会。如果乌克兰失败，那么其他国家将难以效仿他们的行动，普京的观点（所有美德都是无稽之谈）也将盛行。 David Remnick: 引导访谈，提出问题，并对Snyder的观点进行回应和补充。

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Snyder discusses the Ukrainian resolve, highlighting their realistic view of American support and the historical trend of smaller countries winning wars. He emphasizes the Ukrainians' fight for freedom and their long-term view of generational improvement.
  • Smaller countries tend to win wars historically.
  • Ukrainians are fighting with a long-term perspective, prioritizing the younger generation.
  • Russian casualties are significantly higher than Ukrainian casualties.
  • Ukrainian victory depends on Russian political instability and pressure from within Russia.

Shownotes Transcript

Since the war in Ukraine began, the historian Timothy Snyder has made several trips to Ukraine, and it was there that he wrote parts of his newest book, “On Freedom.” The author of “Bloodlands” and “On Tyranny,” Snyder spoke in Ukrainian with soldiers, farmers, journalists, and politicians, including President Volodymyr Zelensky.  He talks with David Remnick about the Ukrainian conviction that they can win the war, and the historical trends that support that conviction.  But the thrust of Snyder’s new book is to apply what he learned from them to larger principles that apply to our own country.  In areas taken back from Russian control, Ukrainians would tell Snyder they were “de-occupied,” rather than liberated; “freedom,” he writes, “is not just an absence of evil but a presence of good.”

“If you think that freedom is just negative,” Snyder told David Remnick, “if you think that freedom is just an absence of [evil] things, I think you then argue yourself into a position where given the absence, stuff is going to work out. … The market is going to deliver you freedom, or the founding fathers … something else is going to deliver you freedom. And that of course is wrong. It’s an essentially authoritarian conviction. Because if anyone’s going to deliver you freedom, it’s going to be you, in some way.” 

 

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