cover of episode Can Trump Voters Still Change Their Minds?

Can Trump Voters Still Change Their Minds?

2024/9/20
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Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell：长期以来，我一直通过焦点小组研究来了解为什么这么多共和党人如此支持特朗普，以及如何说服他们改投其他候选人。我的研究显示，共和党并非铁板一块，许多选民对特朗普感到失望，他们关注的是经济问题和民生问题，而不是特朗普的个人魅力或极端言论。卡马拉·哈里斯的竞选策略是争取中间派共和党选民，并通过温和派共和党人的背书来提升自身形象。 焦点小组成员：许多选民对特朗普和拜登都持负面评价，他们关注的是经济问题和民生问题，例如食品价格上涨等。他们希望候选人能够切实解决他们的问题，而不是空谈。他们对特朗普的极端言论和缺乏计划感到失望，而哈里斯在辩论中的表现则提升了她的形象。 David Remnick：通过对焦点小组成员的访谈，我们了解到，选民对特朗普的评价是复杂的。一些人仍然支持特朗普，因为他们认为他能够代表他们的利益，另一些人则对特朗普感到失望，他们更倾向于支持哈里斯。 Sarah Longwell: 通过对焦点小组的长期研究，我发现许多摇摆州的选民对特朗普的极端言论和行为感到厌倦，他们更关注经济和民生问题。他们对特朗普在堕胎问题上的模糊立场感到不满，而哈里斯专注于中产阶级，并与拜登政府的经济政策保持距离，这对于关注生活成本的选民来说具有吸引力。此外，来自温和派共和党人的背书也对这些选民的投票选择产生了影响。 焦点小组成员：许多选民对特朗普的经济政策和缺乏计划感到失望，他们认为特朗普只顾个人利益，而忽略了中产阶级的需求。他们对特朗普在“2025计划”问题上的说法表示质疑，并担心该计划可能导致美国社会发生重大变化。 David Remnick：在与Sarah Longwell的对话中，我们探讨了特朗普支持者是否会改变主意以及影响他们投票选择的因素。Longwell认为，特朗普的极端言论和行为已经对他的支持率造成了损害，而哈里斯则通过争取中间派选民和温和派共和党人的支持来提升自身形象。

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Political strategist Sarah Longwell discusses the shift in the Republican party and why some lifelong Republicans are finding it difficult to support Trump again. Longwell, a former Republican herself, highlights Trump's departure from traditional conservative values and his impact on the party's stance on issues like free markets and international relations.
  • Lifelong Republicans are questioning their support for Trump due to his policies and character.
  • Trump's stance on issues like tariffs and Ukraine support deviates from traditional conservative values.
  • The Republican party is divided on issues like Ukraine support, causing some members to realign themselves.

Shownotes Transcript

The political strategist Sarah Longwell has dedicated the last seven years to understanding why so many Republicans find Donald Trump irresistible, and how they might be persuaded to vote for someone else. Longwell is a lifelong Republican who became a leader of the Never Trump wing of the G.O.P., and her communications firm, Longwell Partners, has been running weekly focus groups including swing-state voters, undecided voters, and discontented Trump supporters. These are the people who might determine the winner of the 2024 election. “I think that Donald Trump has done more damage to himself with a lot of these people who held their nose and voted for him the second time; [after] January 6th, a lot of them are going to leave it blank,” Longwell told David Remnick. “At the end of the day, what this election will come down to is the Republicans who get there on Kamala Harris, and the ones who just refuse to get there on Trump.” Longwell publishes the political news site the Bulwark, and was also the first female national board chair of the Log Cabin Republicans, which represents L.G.B.T.Q. conservatives.

 

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