Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
In the past few days, both the Zelensky administration in Kiev and South Korea's National Spy Agency have said that they believe North Korea has decided to send more than 10,000 troops to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
Just hours before I sat down to record this, following an emergency security meeting called by South Korea's president, the country's National Intelligence Service released an assessment claiming that the North is sending four brigades of 12,000 soldiers, including special forces, to Ukraine, which would be an unprecedented move if true.
Diplomats in Russia and North Korea say these reports are false. Meanwhile, American officials have warned repeatedly of the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, saying that they've observed signs of increased material support to Moscow, including both artillery shells and missiles, such as the KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles that have been recovered from wreckage in Ukraine. North Korea's ammunition shipments to Moscow are reportedly quite something.
According to British journalists, North Korea supplies Russia with about half of the approximately 3 million artillery shells that Russian forces use annually in the war against Ukraine.
However, Western officials have expressed skepticism about the claims that North Korea is sending large numbers of soldiers, apart from the engineers and observers who travel with those weapons I mentioned to construct and operate them away from the battlefield. For example, just the other day, NATO's General Secretary spoke at a press conference right beside Zelensky and directly contradicted him, saying that there is no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight in large numbers. So, let's
Let's talk about North Korea's involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what is known and assumed about this tricky relationship. Welcome to The Naked Pravda. ♪
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from the Ukrainian and South Korean governments that thousands of North Korean soldiers are flooding the battlefield in Ukraine, I spoke to Dr. Fyodor Tartitsky, a lecturer at Korea University and a leading researcher on North Korean politics. We spoke on Thursday, a day before South Korea's National Intelligence Service released its latest assessment
And my first question for Dr. Chodzitsky was fairly simple. What does he make of the recent reports that North Korea has decided to send large numbers of soldiers to fight thousands of miles away in Ukraine? Well, I'm extremely perplexed about this news because
If it would happen, it would be extraordinary out of character and of career. It's something they have never done before since the state was created in 1948 or even since the Korean Peninsula was divided in 1945.
So their basic strategy, and North Korea is a super close totalitarian state, way more dictatorial than most of the countries we consider dictatorships. So their strategy, their pattern of behavior would be that only a select few officers, not soldiers, not enlisted personnel, but officers get to go abroad.
So these could be like instructors, like they send some people to assist Assad regime in Syria. Back in the day, we used to send some people to train personal guards of Mugabe in Zimbabwe. They were like also some people assisting other similar regimes in Africa. And I guess the biggest thing they did until present day was to send pilots for North Vietnam, when North Vietnam was still a thing.
So, yeah, when officers, and we are not talking about like the average second lieutenant, we are talking about like probably like people from lieutenant colonel and above, were authorized to go abroad, they required a personal authorization of either the supreme leader or his designated successor, one of the two top people in the country.
So this is a regime which is very, very closed, which understands that if information isolation collapses, it is threatened. It is really, really reluctant to especially send people with guns abroad. Them sending a few divisions to help Russia would be something extraordinary, sensational. And that's why I don't really know what to make of the use, because the biggest problem
factor to contributing that what Zelensky is saying may be true. Was the South Korean Minister of Defense saying that they assess the probability of North Korean troops entering the war is highly likely.
And I'd say that's a bit surprising. Obviously, South Korea is not a completely impartial player here. They also have their own agenda. But yeah, I'd say I'm bloody surprised with what is going on. My understanding that South Korea, relatively speaking, was kind of soft on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia's annexation of Kremlin.
Crimea, its war with Georgia so many years ago, or its occupation of South Korea. Has Moscow thrown South Korea under the bus as it's decided, you know what, this special relationship with South Korea is not worth it. We can get so much more out of our good old relationship with North Korea. Whether or not North Korea is sending divisions or even large numbers of soldiers, has Russia essentially
picked North Korea over South Korea and decided that it doesn't matter what happens to its relationship with South Korea? Well, that's a bit complicated. So first of all, as you completely correctly noticed, South Korea has been having a special relationship with Moscow ever since we established diplomatic relations in 1990 and has
All this being of all the US allies, the closest one, the Russia. Like in 2008, during the Georgia war, from what I remember, like President Lee of South Korea actually wasn't even neutral. He was supportive of Russia. He said, like, Georgian, they did that. Please, South, sit here. They shouldn't have done it. Russia did the right thing. Medvedev was very grateful for that. After Crimea, they say they still recognize it as part of Ukraine, but they're not going to implement any sanctions.
So you always see that desire from Seoul to keep Moscow closed because the whole strategy was to pull them away from Pyongyang. And it seems with that new treaty, South Korea failed, but we still want to...
preserve at least some shadow of the previous friendship because well the gremlin's red line would be a full support of ukraine with weaponry south korea says we will do that but only if you provide north korea the precise weaponry so if you would basically start supplying them with that kind of weapon technology we can help ukraine and that was source ultimatum
On June 23rd, the South Korean president's national security advisor said in a televised interview that the administration would consider lifting restrictions on sending lethal aid to Ukraine if Russia supplies the North with precision-guided weapons. South Korea's leader has also expressed concerns about the mutual defense partnership between Russia and North Korea. In response, Vladimir Putin has warned that providing military aid to Kiev would
would be a grave mistake for South Korea. And something to bear in mind, South Korea is one of the world's largest arms suppliers, but it doesn't currently send weapons to Ukraine.
The kinds of weapons that South Korea could send to Ukraine, is that something that would pose a substantial threat to Russia's operations? How would it compare to the technologies that Russia could conceivably send to North Korea? I wouldn't say it's fundamentally new. It's not something the West has not. It's just the thing is about quantity, not quality.
South Korea still has quite a developed military industry for the very reason why the Cold War was over in Europe. The threat of North Korea has never disappeared. So yeah, this country still has quite a substantial conscription and people really do go and serve in the military. So yeah, we could provide a lot. From what I know,
As of now, they implemented quite a curious scheme of basically supporting Ukraine in the weaponry, but keeping the optics as if they are not. So when the United States sends something to Ukraine, they send something to the United States, like artillery shells. So it's de facto paid from the South Korean budget, but it looks like they're not doing it. It's like the Americans who, it seems, Kremlin is...
to certain extent. I wouldn't say okay with that, but tolerates. In terms of the technologies that South Korea is afraid or is saying it will respond, if Russia sends these technologies to North Korea, what are the technologies we're talking about? There's something to do with missiles, I assume. Yeah, I'd say it's probably that, especially like
anything to do with what the air force does. Because if you look what North Koreans are doing in Russia, and all my contacts, all my sources of potential information inside the country, they
approach in every single possible Russian institution which is connected to the Aegean or air force, and we are trying to establish a connection and do something. My guess would be they employ their favorite diplomatic tactic, the salami tactic, as Hungarian dictator Matias Rakosi called it back in the day. So they probably asked
the Kremlin, for their technology. For some reason, the Russian side said no. Well, I guess there can be only two reasons. Either Putin said it or Xi Jinping ordered him not to. And North Koreans never take no for an answer. They think no means, well, yes, but later. So they are trying to negotiate probably some small concession, then another one, then another one, hoping that eventually we would still get what we want.
North Korean diplomats are people who are extraordinarily skilled. These are people who with absolutely limited resources, with awful reputation, with moronic ideology shackling them, still manage to manipulate great powers into basically a submission. They got what they wanted. So do not underestimate them. Please, when you see some North Korean guy saying some
ideological things about Kim Jong-un. Things like great leader and like the Chinese style of humanity. It's very tempting to just laugh at him, or usually him, it's quite a patriarchal country, and just dismiss or saying, well, that's a stupid country with a cult. That may be, but that person who is saying that is not stupid, and he could play you and
Well, you're not talking to a moron. You're talking to a genius. Okay. Well, I'm no genius, so I definitely would be afraid of any kind of interactions there. You mentioned Xi. How does China fit into all this? Because when you see that Russia and North Korea are becoming cozier and that they're exchanging all of these military promises and weapons,
What's China's position when it comes to this sort of thing? Is it fine or is it worried that it's losing its monopoly on all things North Korean? Well, if China wouldn't have been fine with that, if it would definitely have decided it's a big no, it would have never happened.
Because at any time Xi Jinping can issue an order to the ambassador to Moscow, they would call the Kremlin and say the People's Republic of China strongly objects to what you are doing. And it would cease immediately. Because Russia has been quite dependent on the Chinese even before the war and even more so now. So it seems like they are quite okay with what is going on and it seems they do have good reasons. So on the North Korean side, especially now with...
relationship between Washington and Beijing being, well, not in the best shape, to put it mildly. They want North Korea to stay afloat. So we don't want the economy to collapse. We want them to be like staying alive. And if this is paid by the Russians, the better it is for China. Because, well, if it's paid by someone else, why should we pay for it? Or this is wonderful. And as for the war, it seems...
Like, what the Chinese want is basically immediate amnesties. Like, the sooner it ends, the better, because they, on one hand, they don't want Putin to lose. On another hand, they don't want Putin to completely win. And that has...
completely in line with the historical experience. Because if you look at the war, like the People's Republic of China used to have, usually they end in some kind of strange, shady, but working armistice. Korean War, armistice. The war with Vietnam in 1970 is the same.
The conflict with Taiwan - same. The conflict in India back in the day - same. So it seems like that pattern of thinking is quite natural for them and it also reflects the greater interest that Putin doesn't become too strong, but he doesn't become too weak in order for his regime starting to crumble.
And most importantly, nothing nuclear happens and food security is maintained for China and for the entire world. So it seems like from China's point of view, it's pretty rational why they gave a green light for what is going on. I had a question about the type of weapons that Russia appears to be buying from North Korea. My understanding is that they're kind of buying
or like dumb weapons, whereas what the West is sending to Ukraine, it includes a lot of that stuff as well, but Ukraine is also asking for more and more advanced weapons, and that's not necessarily what Russia is getting from North Korea. But I wonder if you could compare the sort of the type of
weapons and ammunition that Russia is getting in North Korea to the weapons we know the West is sending to Ukraine, just so listeners can kind of get an idea of how these two flows compare. So from what I heard, they are not actually supplying weapons, but with ammunition. So not with artillery, but with artillery shells in enormous quantities. Some of them are in terrible shape because from the point of view of
North Korea, if they can cheat their counterpart, anyone, Vladimir Putin is no exception, they would do it. So if they could sell him something which doesn't work and he'll pay,
the better it is. North Korean diplomacy is very tactical and if we can get some immediate profit, we immediately grab it. So that's it. Apart from that, there is talk about missiles, but mostly I think it's artillery because it's very comparable with military doctrine of both countries. So from North Korean point of view, the conventional weapons, if we ignore ICBMs and the nukes,
are a large artillery group which is stationed like 70 kilometers from where I'm sitting right now, from Seoul, just across the border, and which is ready to shell the South Korean capital and the capital area where like more than half of the South Korean population resides at any time. And that's pretty much the reason why they can never be attacked. I mean, you can like, even if you can pull some magic trick and just disappear the nuclear weapons with steel,
No one would dare to attack them because of that. So Russian military doctrine, well, I mean, you've seen it in action, what we do to Ukrainian towns and cities. So we bring artillery and they just eradicate every living thing and everything which stands in the way. So both countries kind of overdo artillery. So both countries' armies originate in the Soviet Union. So the Calabas way weaponry is probably like not as unified as weapons.
like in native standards, because we haven't been in LAS until quite recently. But they're quite compatible.
The first reports about Russia purchasing North Korean weapons began roughly a year ago, when U.S. National Security Spokesman John Kirby presented satellite images confirming these deliveries. By now, a year or so later, Russia has likely received millions of rockets and shells, including KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un probably finalized this agreement in September 2023,
when they met at the Vostoshnyi Cosmodrome, Russia's Far East spaceport. South Korean defense officials say Moscow has received at least 5,500 containers of military supplies from the North, including missiles, shells, and ammunition. The nature of like the, if we can get away with sending them bad ammunition and they'll pay for it, that's great for us. It doesn't sound like there's
some kind of like, you know, celebrated friendship in that case. I mean, I'm sure that there's, there are people that, for instance, in the Pentagon who are happy to, you know, be as efficient as possible with various deals and so on. But my sort of intuition is that
Their attitude about, you know, sending something to the British, for instance, wouldn't be, well, let's try to scam them if we can. And so I wonder, like, in terms of like the political cultures of the political elites in Russia and North Korea, is there not necessarily some...
tight bond, a feeling of grand partnership? Is it more like, well, we're working together for now, and let's just do what's best for us? Because my understanding is that there is quite a story here in terms of cooperation going back to the Cold War and the Soviet period. But the way you're describing it, it sounds totally transactional, and that's sort of it.
Well, first of all, I would say that Russia does have, to a certain extent, such a culture. Think about Moscow sponsoring post-Soviet republics who were hoping to build their soft power, especially in the early Putin era. It was very much a thing, but North Korea does not.
And as for the relationship, I can give you quite a long answer, because the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang has always been marked by a great degree of insincerity and duplicity. So when we pretended to be friends, on paper, in fact, they were...
at some points even rivals. So it all starts with 1945, when the Soviet Union occupies a part of the Korean peninsula, previously a colony of the Empire of Japan, and starts eventually building their client state.
So roughly until 1957, North Korea is extremely dependent on Moscow. The first laws are very crudely translated from Russian, so you can read that they're written in extremely awkward Korean because of their direct translation. And at the time, like the Soviet ambassador, reigns supreme as Kim Il-sung's boss. Kim Il-sung has been first North Korean leader.
So Kim Il-sung is extremely skilled manipulator. Once again, just like a funny Korean guy, was grossly underestimated by the great power of him, made the same mistakes like others did later. And he survives a disillusion in 1956. And roughly next year, he finally breaks free from this Soviet control. So about the same time,
We have the beginning of the Sino-Soviet split, when Moscow and Beijing suddenly became like, "We're its enemies." They aggressively criticized each other. Like, the USSR says that Maoism is a direct threat to humankind. In China, you have like, demonstrations of hatred towards Brezhnev, Kosygin, and Kahn, and well, you know, the situation.
So Kim Il-sung, being his usual cynical despot, starts milking two cows. So they go to the Soviets, they say, well, you know, we always valued the great help of the Soviet friends, and, you know, it's a truly a country, we would like to ask them, here's our list, please pay, otherwise we'll go to the Chinese.
Meanwhile in China, it was like, you know, like there is a great traditional friendship between the Chinese people and the Korean people. We fought together in the Korean War. Like, well, basically the Chinese saved him, but... So please, his release, please pay, otherwise we can go to the Soviets and he won't like.
And this worked totally brilliant, because both the embassies acted completely docile out of fear that they may scare North Korea to go to the other side. Pyongyang's sympathies sort of leaned at a certain point towards Beijing, at another point towards Moscow.
Another thing that Kim Il-sung managed to pull, he managed to rewrite history according to his narcissistic fantasies that he himself led his own army, the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, which in fact had never existed, and that they, not the Soviets, not the Allies, crushed the Imperial Japan, like partisans who suddenly out of blue have air force and navy and crushed everyone in 1945.
But even if they started, like, literally demolishing monuments to Soviet soldiers, like, remember, like, people like Putin, they usually, like, react at that, like...
the biggest trigger. Moscow swallowed that, China swallowed the idea when Kim Il-sung said he never was a member of the Communist Party of China, he was the leader of his own force, and it all worked perfectly. So you can see extremely negative reports of the Soviet embassy at the time, at the same time very rosy reports in Pravda because they are afraid that they could trigger Kim Il-sung.
So that age lasts until 1990. In 1990, Moscow, like, "You're the one who should fear us, we're someone of Koreans, say, well, we can be friends, but you're getting nothing from us. And also we are opening an embassy in South Korea." Well, Pyongyang looks at them shocked and says, "How dare you? That's like the ultimate betrayal. Well, screw you! We don't need you!" At the same time, the Chinese come to them saying, "Yeah, we are actually also opening an embassy in South Korea."
The kins are completely furious, they say "it's a betrayal, we don't want you, we'll make you pay your dirty traitors" Well, in any case, people who paid were the North Koreans because their economy collapsed after they stopped receiving the aid they were so accustomed to So from 1990, so from Lego Bacha Fera to 2022 included, so way past the invasion
Under Gorbachev, under Yeltsin, under Putin, under Medvedev, and under Putin again, Russian policy towards North Korea has been completely the same. So they were always supporting China to the same extent as, say, the United Kingdom of France have been supportive of the United States. They pretended that they're friends with North Koreans and they had like almost zero trade or at some point even like zero trade.
So the trade balance between the two countries by 2022, by South Korean estimates, so independent from both the Kremlin and Pyongyang, was zero. Like, not a single dollar. And then we finally have, like, stage four, when Putin realized these guys can help me with my favorite grant project, the conquest of Ukraine, with my place in history. So I want it. And they started making a rapid deal. ♪
So I'm a bit hesitant to ask this question because the way you've described the sort of North Korean diplomatic machine makes it seem like
It's so ruthless that this question might be silly, but I wonder in your monitoring of the North Korean media, is there anything in the way that they talk about Putin or Russia that would be surprising to the West? Because from what I'm hearing, they sort of will be respectful, but not say anything too praising because-
Everyone else is sort of second tier to their own leadership and so on. I mean, that's basically it. Or is there something else that's worth noting? So that's an excellent question, actually. Like, that's really like a question I could expect from like a colleague who studies North Korea or like really high class.
So when you see how they write and when you're starting off Korean ideology, it's like imperative you study in the original in Korean because all the nuances disappear in translation, especially since the old is quite crude.
So the-- like Korean grammar, they have sort of affixes which are used to show respect. And like in oral speech, we can be just used to when you're talking about, say, your parents. But in written North Korean, they are only used when they talk about the natives. And on some extremely rare occasions, some foreigners can be elevated to that level. So they can talk with them using respect, like grammatical forms of respect.
Back in the day, it was Mao Zedong before he died in the 70s, when we favored towards Beijing and not towards Moscow in that diplomatic play. And there was a brief period in 2018 when we defeated Xi Jinping. So it seems like that ultimate prize is still something we're keeping. And Putin was never granted that.
So Putin was granted another honor. He was granted the right to publish a column in the main newspaper, Orlin Shimon, they approved him. But it was probably something like the Russian side asked for, because at the same time, he also published in Nyanzan, like the same thing in Vietnam.
But as for grammar, they just use the same grammar. The only thing which really speaks in the discourse we started calling "Russian comrades". I could imagine that being the initiative of the current ambassador Matsukuro. It's very much in his style to sort of like do some stylistic things which would create good optics. But we should remember that before that,
Russians have never been corporates because Russia is a capitalist country, not a fellow socialist like China, Vietnam, Laos, and Cuba. And now they are. And so they're probably like, if you're looking for some symbolic gestures, that's it.
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