cover of episode Moldova’s knife-edge election and E.U. referendum

Moldova’s knife-edge election and E.U. referendum

2024/11/2

The Naked Pravda

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Ecaterina Locoman

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Paula Erizanu

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Paula Erizanu详细分析了摩尔多瓦国内政治局势，指出通货膨胀、腐败和司法改革是民众关注的焦点。她认为，桑杜政府虽然致力于司法改革，但由于疫情、战争和能源危机等因素，改革进展缓慢且存在争议。她还分析了公投的背景和意义，指出桑杜政府举行公投是为了证明加入欧盟是摩尔多瓦民众的意愿，而非仅仅是政府的意愿。她还谈到了选举中的舞弊问题，以及亲俄势力对选举的影响。 Ecaterina Locoman则从地缘政治角度分析了摩尔多瓦的政治格局，指出摩尔多瓦社会长期以来存在严重分裂，外交政策方向决定了选举结果。她认为，公投结果显示社会分裂，但贿选严重影响了结果。她分析了亲俄阵营和亲欧盟阵营利用民众对西方的恐惧和对俄罗斯的恐惧进行宣传的策略，以及乌克兰战争对摩尔多瓦政治格局的影响。她还分析了克里姆林宫的目标是将摩尔多瓦保持在其势力范围之内，并利用德涅斯特河沿岸地区和加告兹亚地区等地区进行影响。她最后指出，如果桑杜落选，将对2025年议会选举产生重大影响，因为桑杜是摩尔多瓦最好的总统，她成功地将摩尔多瓦置于西方政府的关注焦点。

Deep Dive

The October 2020 Moldovan presidential election and constitutional referendum resulted in a narrow victory for the pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu, who failed to secure an outright majority, and a referendum win for EU integration by just over 50%. Sandu accused criminal groups and foreign forces of vote-buying.

Narrow victory for pro-EU Maia Sandu in the presidential election
Referendum win for EU integration by a slim margin
Sandu's allegations of widespread vote-buying

Shownotes Transcript

On October 20, Moldovans cast their ballots in both a presidential election and a constitutional referendum — and the results shocked many.

In the referendum, which asked whether the country should change its constitution to include the goal of joining the European Union, the “yes” vote won by just over 50 percent. Meanwhile, in the presidential election, pro-E.U. incumbent Maia Sandu came in first but failed to win an outright majority.

The day after the vote, Sandu accused) “criminal groups” of attempting to undermine the democratic process by working with foreign forces to try and buy as many as 300,000 votes. Now, she’ll face pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo in a high-stakes run-off scheduled for November 3.

What does all of this say about Moldova’s political landscape and future foreign policy orientation? To find out, The Naked Pravda spoke to Moldovan journalist and writer Paula Erizanu and** Ecaterina Locoman**, a senior lecturer in international studies at the University of Pennsylvania’s Lauder Institute.

Timestamps for this episode:

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(3:05) Judiciary Reforms and Controversies

(6:25) The Referendum and Its Implications

(9:47) Election Day Atmosphere and Concerns

(12:28) Post-Election Developments and Fraud Allegations

(17:01) Russia’s Influence and Moldova’s Future

(21:26) Impact of the Ukraine War on Moldova

(23:14) Kremlin’s Strategy and Moldova’s Challenges

(25:03) Public Opinion and the E.U. Referendum

(30:37) Moldova’s Path Forward

*Prefer reading over listening? Subscribe to Meduza’s weekly newsletter The Beet) to receive abridged excerpts from this episode. *

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