"Slava Ukraini!" and How America Can't Be Trusted RN
37:07 Share

This episode is brought to you by LifeLock. It's tax season, and we're all a bit tired of numbers. But here's one you need to hear. $16.5 billion. That's how much the IRS flagged for possible identity fraud last year. Now here's a good number. $100 million. That's how many data points LifeLock monitors every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it. Guaranteed. Save up to 40% your first year at LifeLock.com slash podcast. Terms apply.

Donald Trump is Putin's wet dream. So we're going to go our way up from there, all right? Donald Trump is Putin's wet dream. Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well-trained, well-equipped, and battle-hardened. There is not a liberal America, any conservative America, state of America. Good night and good luck.

Ladies and gentlemen, it's Rick Wilson, your host, as always, here on the Lincoln Project Podcast. Welcome back to the show. I am delighted to have a rare doubleheader episode today with my friends Alex Vindman and Ken Harbaugh, two men who have spent a lot of time in, working, thinking about Ukraine during the course of this war, and Alex, of course, who has very deep roots in Ukraine. And I'm delighted to have you guys with me today because we are at a moment where the global equation...

has been scrambled, where one week ago, as we're recording this, Donald Trump was engaged in the ritual humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky in the Oval Office with his handmaidens, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. And in that week since, we have seen Europe start to step up to fill the gap that was once filled by NATO and American leadership,

And so I wanted to talk to both of you about where Ukraine stands today, where you see the battle ahead. I want to also talk to you, Alex, about your remarkable new book, because it's important, I think, that we look at your strategic view of this question as well as the moment we're in. So with that, I want to welcome you gentlemen to the show. And I'll start with you, Alex.

What are you hearing on the ground right now? What do you see it sensing out there in Ukraine and in Europe more broadly about this reset in the national security and international security environment? Sure. Thanks. Thanks. I'm glad to be on with Ken and Rick. I have got a soft spot for you. When I was in my trials and tribulations trying to figure out what to do next,

You were one of my very first conversations, you know, a voice of wisdom. It's very strategic, very thoughtful. So always happy to join you and have these rich conversations with you. Look, we're going to start at like really, really kind of low level, you know, and bubble up and boil up. And I'm just going to go ahead and say that Donald Trump is Putin's wet dream. So we're going to go our way up from there. All right. Donald Trump is Putin's wet dream. Why? Why?

Why? Because there is you couldn't even think of a scenario in which a president of the United States or the United States as a whole would pivot so hard for Russia.

I mean, if you had like a Manchurian candidate type of scenario, you know, if you remember that really cool movie, there's a couple of remakes of it, the one with Denzel Washington. He's captured and then he's basically brainwashed and then he's, you know, he doesn't even get into power yet, but he could be a guy that turns everything upside down and, you know, plays for the other team because he's a spy.

You couldn't think of a scenario in which the Trump administration could do that much more. I mean, maybe give up nuclear codes or something like that. Other than that, it's gone really, really heavy. And you normally would have a Republican administration that would, first of all, be initially shocked and then immediately seek to –

organized to protect the nation because of the dangers that are unfolding very, very quickly. Burning bridges as fast as we can approach them with our allies and ingratiating ourselves, and not even just ingratiating ourselves, actually aggressively and practically moving forward with relationships and normalizing with our allies.

uh, uh, enemies, not in a way that like advances a U S goal, like peace, but a way that really is harmful and delays the cause of peace. So what is everybody doing in this kind of, you know, tragic situation? Um, they're in, in certain ways, uh, at a loss, they're shocked. The Ukrainians, I think Zelensky's biggest mistake was, um,

Taking that meeting, he's been pushing for these, you know, one-on-one engagements with Trump because he could think, he thinks that, you know, this is, that personal connection actually is really important for Trump. You know, those personal connections are meaningful. Those last touches keep him on sides. But he miscalculated the animus that Trump has for Ukraine, that he is extremely vindictive because Ukraine has been the source of pain for him

not because Ukraine has done anything wrong, but because Ukraine has kind of held and defended its national security and that Russia, he has a strong leaning for Russia. So Ukrainians, Zelensky made a mistake. That meeting was intended to put pressure on him, blow him up. But it was...

It was still supposed to end with a signature, with a signed document that everybody could walk away with and Trump could claim a victory. Instead, it blew up in a way that undermined that end state. And it's resulted in Ukraine being cut off militarily. Not a surprise. I actually thought it was going to be paused on day one. So they got another five, six weeks of support.

And intelligence sharing, and that's mutually destructive because we're getting a huge amount of intel from the Ukrainians. They're our most important ally when you're not accounting for technical means or human sources based on the fact that they know Russia extremely well. And our allies, the subtitle of the book is how the West deceived itself about Russia and betrayed Ukraine, but I think they're deceiving themselves about Ukraine.

And, you know, they're trying to support Ukraine, but they don't realize where we are. They don't realize that this is a different Trump administration. This is not Trump one. This is not guardrails in place. This is a... No grownups in the room. Yeah. This is a pusillaneous Republican party. This is a loyal supplicants in the cabinet that will flatter, that will praise all the worst instincts of Trump. And...

And you have Macron and Starmer coming over and flattering Trump to get the last word in because that was historically effective.

But it's probably not going to work this time. And what you're going to have is in that meet, the first meeting that weekend, you had one of the conclusions was, yes, Europe is going to have to step up in a huge way. They're going to have to do a hell of a lot more. And you could see the movement in that direction. But there's also that hope that somehow the relationship with between Trump and Zelensky could be normalized. And I think that's a misplaced hope. They need to really, you know, the moment of clarity is,

that drove them in this direction needs to be kind of pushed all the way through to conclusion, which is that the US is very unlikely to be there and that the Europeans are going to have to really aggressively ramp up. And they're moving in that direction, but they still have some hopes of normalizing. And what's happening in the Kremlin and in Beijing,

They they've got thrilled. They're still hung over. They're still hung over because a week on. And I mean, like I said, this we're going to keep we're going to keep this one spicy. But they couldn't possibly expect a better outcome. Watching 30 plus years of the U.S. and the West.

Trying to put Russia first trying to manage Russia, but being played consistently They couldn't have hoped for a Trump administration that would do more than Trump is doing And now the question is, you know, how do they do they exploit these opportunities? How do they exploit these fractures? I think we're gonna see some dangerous things unfold. They're they're hearing the signs that the US won't be there What does that mean? That means that they could start escalating hybrid warfare and

probably on NATO territory, probably in the Baltics, testing that theory, ensuring that they actually help break NATO, and then they could start to pressure states individually, smaller states individually. So we are headed towards something very dangerous. Our troops are, you know, frankly, we are still the most powerful military in the world, but our troops that you could see that that Raiostat kind of start to ratchet up and

Things are going to get froggy and our troops are going to potentially be in greater danger. And I think this is going to put us, the United States as a whole, in a situation where we don't have the friends that we could have expected in the past when shit hits the fan.

And, you know, it's a dark picture, but that's where we are. It's a pretty dark moment. So, Ken, I want to bring you into the conversation here and ask you, because you've been over recently. You've been on the ground recently. You have been you followed some folks who are very much in the in the in the front line of the of combat operations there. The Ukrainians have been incredibly innovative in this war.

They have been incredibly, they've done more with less. Yes, American aid has been essential. I wanted to ask you a question. In your observations there, the American intelligence and targeting that was provided to the Ukrainians, is there a substitute in the short term for that from Europe? Is there a way that a lot of the things that they've been able to translate, you know, a sort of technical edge and a sort of intelligence edge into

Is there a substitute for that? And what else are you hearing on the ground right now? In the short term, probably not. You have to realize that so many of the weapon systems they depend on, like HIMARS, are integrated into the U.S. intelligence system and the provision of U.S. tracking and targeting, that kind of thing. But I wouldn't put it past the Ukrainians to innovate through

any challenge. Their adaptability is astonishing to me. I mean, they were supposed to fall in three days, right? You combine their adaptability with their grit. Maybe it shouldn't be surprising because when you're fighting for your survival, you will do anything. That's one thing Russia and Putin are not doing. They're not fighting for their survival. It is a

It is a war driven from greed and pride and all of the vices that you can come up with. Ukraine is fighting to exist. And this notion that, you know, we should simply accept the lines where they are. Go talk to a Ukrainian about that. I've talked to Ukrainians, as I'm sure Alex has, in the occupied territories. It is awful.

an horrific existence. Sure. And the idea that peace at all costs means the same thing to Ukrainians as it does to Americans and Russians. Talk to Ukrainian before you shove that down their throats. One thing I think we need to double tap on is, I don't think you can overstate it, Trump's personal animus towards Zelensky. You saw it viscerally in the Oval Office when

I'm not a shrink, right? I'm not going to psychoanalyze it except to say that I think Zelensky holds up a mirror to Donald Trump and reminds him what true leadership is.

looks like. And look, I think he's going to go down. I think we all agree as one of the historic figures of the millennium. And for America's part, this is our hour of shame. I've had Ukrainians reach out to me and call this their Pearl Harbor moment, and then directly invoke the day that we'll live in infamy, which is America's behavior, Trump's behavior in the Oval Office. But it's

Look, I have to, as someone who wore the uniform like Alex did, I still believe long term that America will do the right thing. What's that Winston Churchill quote? America always does the right thing after it's exhausted. All the other possibilities. The question is, how much damage are we going to do in the meantime? And some of it.

can't be repaired. Like it's going to take a generation for our allies to trust us again. Rick, you know about Five Eyes. You know that our biggest strengths lie in our alliances and those are shattered in the span of a few weeks. Right. I mean, I think a conversation I had with a retired MI6 person about two days ago, three days ago now, who said to me, he goes,

If I was still doing what I did and I had to go in and talk to my counterparts, knowing that Tulsi Gabbard was in charge of my product and my sources, I would never do it. I could not, I would, I would have to resign. I could not do it. I would tell my people ditch, get out. Like you can't, you're not safe anymore. I think that, that,

One of the things that has been an understory here is that intelligence cooperation between the U.S. and Ukraine. And it's a longer running story, as Alex knows better than anybody. And I want to ask you this question, Alex. At the officer level, at the line level, I'm sure there are people who have been working with Ukraine hand in hand from the U.S. intelligence community and the military intelligence community now for three years who are absolutely shocked and heartbroken by this whole thing.

And a lot of them aren't going to talk publicly, obviously. But that has got to be a traumatic sense of betrayal from the Americans who've seen the Ukrainians struggling against this massive Russian manpower advantage for three years now. It's true. But I think they'll also think back to how this war started at zero, really. We provided a modest number of javelins and a modest number of stingers. Right.

And really they were going at it alone from February all the way through summer, the summertime frame when we finally started providing the first series of High Mars that had significant effects.

So I think from that standpoint, they know that they could go it. They could press on. Actually, you know, it's interesting over the course of we'll see if the momentum starts to shift. But over the course of the past several weeks, the Ukrainians have launched some pretty robust counterattacks. They're not counteroffensive, but pretty robust counterattacks and are taking back critical territory that the Russians won at enormous cost.

1500 casualties a day. And the Ukrainians are marching and taking back territory. And I think on the tactical edge of this battlefield,

nothing is going to change fundamentally for weeks, for months maybe. The Ukrainians have sufficient artillery stores. They're going to have to start rationing as we get deeper. The question is the balance at which point the Europeans can step up and start to alleviate some of those shortages. That is unknown right now. But the longer that there's a delay there, the harder it gets for the Ukrainians. The intelligence component of this,

is going to have probably a bigger impact on what we call the operational level, which is not at the leading edge, but further back. An important component of the battlefield where the Russians are using some key assets, like, you know, that's where they have their air defense systems. That's where they have their larger electronic warfare systems. That's where they consolidate, you know, masses of troops. That's where their headquarters are. And that's where the echelon where,

Losing high Mars, you know, that are effective out to 70 kilometers, 90 kilometers, you know, the TACMs that are about 300 kilometers. That's when it starts to have a bigger effect. But the Ukrainians are really good at that leading edge still. I think they're increasing their capabilities with longer range drones, you know, fewer quantities in that operational edge. But it's going to be harder for them. Part of this is also the strategic picture, what the Ukrainians were using to target.

So there's going to be a hit on some of these things. It's going to get more acute over time. It does not mean that Ukrainians are going to collapse. And as Ken pointed out, they're going to adapt. They're going to figure out some things. And we are overplaying our hand. We don't have the cards we think we have. We'll be right back. And now, back to the show. That is a great point. I want to talk to you both about that because in a lot of ways,

I think we've seen in the last few days that while Europe has a long way to go, you know, by the fact that they're openly talking now about a new security architecture, by the numbers that are being provided to Ukraine on the finance side, and by the fact that they are very much closing in on giving Ukraine the $200 billion of seized Russian assets to use in this war. I think there are, I think,

in a lot of ways, Europe has called Trump's bluff more effectively than Ukraine could individually, or Zelensky could individually. And I'm curious what you guys think about, like, the U.S. position basically has been, okay, well, we're the big fish, we're the big sugar daddy, and no one else could substitute for that. And maybe no one else can substitute one for one for that, but...

Watching the French and the French Senator Malheur yesterday give that amazing Churchillian kind of speech that was very much realistic about where America is right now. All of this seems to me that Europe has kind of called Trump's bluff here. And Trump has a misapprehension, I think that's the biggest one in the whole thing,

It's not that he misread Zelensky. He's misread the strength that Putin has. Putin may be very strong domestically. He's not at risk of being overthrown. But this war has bled Russia dry.

And so I want to talk to both of you. Ken, weigh in on that because I think Trump has overplayed America's position here. Well, I don't think Trump even realized he was bluffing and sticking with the poker analogy, right? He thought he had all the cards, but watching Europe step up, watching that convening of the European leaders when Zelensky immediately went to London and to the European capitals after that humiliation in Washington, right?

That was so encouraging to me. But I'll tell you the downside of that. The downside of that, when the world, when the free world loses confidence in America, in America's

not just its moral leadership, but equally importantly, its strategic umbrella. When you can no longer count on America's nuclear deterrence, what happens? You get proliferation. I think that is 100% guaranteed now, because if there is one lesson that the Ukrainians have learned, that the Taiwanese have now picked up on, that the Baltic states now understand, it's that America's nukes won't be there for you

even if they promised them they will. We promised Ukraine that, well, Alex and I have had a back and forth on this, but we all but promised Ukraine that if they gave up their nukes, we would assure their security. Look what happened. You think that assurance is going to hold any water at all with the Taiwanese or with the Poles or anyone else? We are on the verge of a massive nuclear proliferation because of Trump's overplaying his hand. I think it's a little bit worse than that, unfortunately, because I think it's the double-edged sword of

nuclear extortion being effective,

Meaning that the adversaries, the hostile powers, have this as the ultimate security guarantee that the U.S. will do less than it needs to, that the U.S. will be extremely risk averse and deescalate. And I think there's something to be said about that. We certainly don't want to stumble into a nuclear war. But nuclear extortion means that we don't hold our ground and don't advance our interests necessarily.

when we might need to show a little bit more resolve and call some bluffs because that's what they are. Nobody's interested in waging nuclear war. But then so it's on that side of the equation, our adversaries proliferating and our friends no longer believing in extended deterrence or that the US is going to fulfill its obligations. So I think there is a huge certainly those conversations are occurring without question. And whether we see something materialize

This is, you know, this he will be overseeing the potentially the largest nuclear proliferation since the launch of the nuclear age.

And I don't think that's a far-fetched notion because we have completely destabilized the globe with our unreliability. So it's a dangerous picture. I guess, you know, this may be a moment to just briefly to delve a little bit into this, the history. We've had 30 years of deceiving ourselves about Russia. And in that context, we've succumbed to hopes and fears, hopes that we could do more with Russia.

and fears that if we somehow held the line, that we would start a spiral that would lead to hostilities. And we did that under competent administrations, frankly, all the way through from George H.W. Bush to present day. We are now in an era of maximum malice and maximum ignorance. Maximum ignorance because we don't understand the lessons of the past. Trump doesn't even understand lessons from his first four years.

And maximum loss because we are highly transactional, self-destructively so, where we don't understand the importance of our alliances, that we're talking about seizing territory from the Canadians, seizing Greenland. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it. One way or the other, we're going to get it. Panama. It's Panama. And forgiving...

accommodating, appeasing our enemies that would wipe us off the face of the map if they thought they could get away with it. One of the things that I think everyone, and Ken, you're exactly right about, and you and Alex are both correct about the possibility of a vastly expanded nuclear club in this world. Guys,

For the audience, just so you know, and the three of us have all done some thinking about nuclear weapons in our various careers, a technically sophisticated country can have nuclear weapons without a whole lot of hassle. It is not difficult. I mean, the Germans could knock out a nuclear weapon in a month if they wanted to in a crash program. These are not super secret ideas about the physics are pretty understood and everybody with sophisticated computer-aided machining can build very bad weapons very quickly.

And yet the fuel chain is a little bit more of an issue. But this is not beyond the capabilities of even Saudi Arabia, which I suspect is already working on one, but we'll cover that bridge another time. But as Ken said, Taiwan, why would they not at this point with America walking back across the world? And strategically, if you end up in a world divided up where Trump seems to want to have the world of give Putin Europe,

America, North and South America, and China, the rest of the world. Well, why would other countries, mid-sized, mid-tier countries not want to seek their own, you know, last argument of King's style weapon? I just find this whole thing, like their inability to think strategically absolutely blows me away. Yeah. I think the first time...

Probably goes without saying, but our allies getting nukes does not actually make the world safer. No. Right. No. Game theory this out once. I mean, I think the nuclear club is five, six or around there. If you add another two or three, the predictions become so untenable. The possibility for accidents. Pax Americana existed because America was reliable. That era is over. We'll be right back.

And now, back to the show. And if you combine the... Look, I mean, North Korea had to bootstrap its nuclear program through... It's like a copy of Pakistan's copy of nuclear weapons. And they've had to... If you end up combining the increasing ease of development of ballistic weapons with nuclear weapons, we're going to have a world where stress and tension between powers...

One of the things that existed for 75 years between Russia and the U.S. was we both had a sort of mutual respect and fear that things could get out of hand. So we were cautious. We stepped carefully around each other. But now you will end up with a world with a lot more weapons, a lot more people who are a lot more sparky about what they're going to do, and with fewer traditions of constraint between the parties. I just, I feel like, I feel like we're in a, we're in a,

This opening, this door that Trump has done is not easily unwound because they're going to say, well, maybe the next president's a kook too. We didn't think America would produce insane people, but it does. And it potentially means that the U.S. is, frankly, in a lot of ways, less relevant in the long term. I do believe that, you know,

Yes, it's going to take a generation to repair the damage and prove our reliability. But I think on the back end of this, with a different administration, our allies would welcome us with open arms because we are still going to be the indispensable nation in a lot of ways because of economic power and, you know, security.

I think there will be some conditions, there'll be some evolution of different security architectures. I think the nukes might be part of that. The Europeans will be much more thoughtful about doing things for their own defense absent the US. In the Pacific, the challenges between

Japan and South Korea are evaporating as they recognize that they need to be stronger. So there'll be a lot more great partnerships there. But I think we can come back from this for sure. It's just what does the world look like then? By my count, we're about eight nuclear powers. I think there's a good chance that we could see another three, four, five. I mean, South Korea, Japan are potentially places where we could see further reparation. Yeah.

Germany, potentially, although they've given up their civilian nuclear, so it's going to be hard for them to figure out how to get that fuel cycle going. But there's probably another couple of countries in the mix. Australia is certainly thinking about it at this point. They have to be. They have to be. How else does a country of Australia's size and income...

Sure. Protect yourself against China. China wants to take over the entire Pacific sphere. I mean, so, and they are, they're a technically sophisticated country. Yeah. The math becomes very, very hard when you have that many players. And in this world, it's, it's frankly a Putin, a Putinist worldview. He believes in the concept of dirjavnist, which is basically that there are only three real powers in the globe, China, Russia, and the U S everybody else is beholden to those three powers. Everybody else is beholden to those three powers.

Everybody else has to has to bend the knee. But he's thinking about it with, you know, the overwhelming conventional and nuclear capabilities of these countries. That math changes significantly when you have a nuclear proliferation around the world. And, you know, they have the capability to do some nuclear extortion of their own and, you know, threaten mutually assured destruction also. So I think Trump believes it in the same way.

That he could press our allies, the smaller ones, the medium-sized countries, cajole, coax, really pressure him, and that he has to flatter the Russians. That's what Putin is talking about, that the things are coming together, that they share that view of the world.

It's funny, I was having a conversation with a German friend the other day and I jokingly said to her, I'm like, you may end up having to build nuclear weapons, you know. And she laughed and she goes, no, we would just give them to the Finns. Okay.

If you really want to terrify the Russians. Yeah, that's true. The joke, my Finnish friends, I did a relief convoy to Ukraine with a bunch of Finns. When they joined NATO, the running joke was actually NATO just joined them. They've been in the fight for a while. Right. But my favorite piece of Finnish poetry was,

Russia is so big and we are so small. Where will we find to bury them all? Because the Finns are not to be fucked with. But, well, gentlemen, listen, I want to thank you both for coming on the show today. This is a conversation we could probably go on for hours. But,

But I think both of you have had really valuable insights. Ken, tell folks where they can reach you and what projects you want to promote. Absolutely. Thanks for the shameless plug. First of all, buy Alex's book. And then...

Go subscribe to Valor Media Network. We've got a host of Navy SEALs and Delta guys trying to take on Joe Rogan and the Manosphere Bros. I think if we have a different kind of messenger, we can actually operate in that space and compete. Valor Media Network on YouTube. We're building it up. Really appreciate the support. Awesome.

And Alex, your new book, The Folly of Realism, How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine, could not be more timely. Tell us, you're on a book tour now, correct? Yes, I am. So first of all, I need to subscribe to that channel. That sounds like cool, you know, cool guys. Yeah, right. I was just like, I was just like, I wrote it down. Valor Media. So yes, I'm last leg of the book tour. I'm in LA heading home and then back out on the road after a week.

Look, the book is, I'm going to get real with you. There are not enough of you people buying this.

I don't care what you're doing. Drop what you're doing. Go get this book. Go get Alex's book at your local bookstore or wherever fine books are sold online. Seriously, if you want to understand what's going on with this war, how we got here, what mistakes we've made along the way, what Trump is in a lot of ways doing in the most dangerous manner, kind of the poison Kool-Aid stage of the mistakes that we were doing.

all right death cult purple um this is a good thing for you to to take a look at and there's a prescription or for a way out of this um which i talk about which is looks like it's years down the road but there's definitely a prescription where the us can recapture its moral leadership uh there there's um life there because of the extremes that trump is is um introducing

There's going to have to be a correction, a course correction on the back end. And then avinman.com is my sub stack there. But anyway, just happy to join you, Rick. Delighted to be with you both, my friends. Let's keep talking. Let's keep fighting for this. And I do believe that the battle for Ukraine is in some ways the real battle for the soul of the West in our era.

And, and, and I appreciate everything both of you have done in this fight. And we will talk to you again very soon, guys. Thanks, Rick. Thanks guys. The Lincoln project podcast is a Lincoln project production executive produced by Whitney Hayes, Ben Howe, and Joey Wartner Cheney produced by Whitney Hayes edited by Riley Maine. Hey folks, if you want to support the Lincoln projects work against Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and this MAGA craziness,

Go to action.linkinproject.us slash help LP. If you'd like to get in touch or have suggestions for a guest or a show topic, or just want to say hi, our email is podcast at linkinproject.us. For our MAGA friends, please, no more nudes. Thanks so much, and we'll talk to you again next time. Good night, and good luck.