Does Trump’s return threaten the future of Nato?
22:15 Share

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. Alright, we're all set for the party. I've trimmed the tree, hung the mistletoe, and paired all those weird-shaped knives and forks with the appropriate cheeses. And I plugged in the Bartesian. Bartesian? It's a home cocktail maker that makes over 60 premium cocktails, plus a whole lot of seasonal favourites too. I just got it for

So how about a Closmopolitan or a mistletoe margarita? I'm thirsty. Watch. I just pop in a capsule, choose my strength, and... Wow. It's beginning to feel more seasonal in here already. If your holiday party doesn't have a bartender, then you become the bartender. Unless you've got a Bartesian. Because Bartesian crafts every cocktail perfectly in as little as 30 seconds. And I just got it for $50 off. Tis the season to be jollier.

Add some holiday flavor to every celebration with the sleek, sophisticated home cocktail maker, Bartesian. Get $50 off any cocktail maker at bartesian.com slash cocktail. That's B-A-R-T-E-S-I-A-N dot com slash cocktail.

It's EZ Ryan Seacrest here. People always say it's good to unwind, but that's easier said than done. The exception, Chumpa Casino. They actually make it easier done than said, or at least the same. Chumpa Casino is an online social casino with hundreds of casino-style games like

Hello, I'm Katya Adler from the BBC World Service. This is The Global Story.

The re-election of Donald Trump marks what's perhaps the most uncertain moment in the history of the NATO military alliance. Well, that is since the last time he was president. But that was before large-scale warfare returned to Europe with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aided militarily and otherwise by North Korea, Iran and China.

NATO is a transatlantic military alliance and it's largely funded by the United States. But America first Donald Trump thinks it's a very bad deal. NATO was busted until I came along. I said, everybody's going to pay. They said, well, if we don't pay, are you still going to protect us? I said, absolutely not.

With Ukraine on the back foot against Moscow and European security in jeopardy, NATO has got a new chief, Mark Rutter, who's been dubbed the Trump whisperer. In his first major speech in his new job, he's called for NATO members to switch to a wartime mindset and seriously boost defence spending. Can he save NATO by persuading the incoming US president to stay on board?

With me today is the BBC's defence correspondent, Jonathan Beale. Hi, Jonathan. Hi, Katya, from a cold, a very cold Dnipro here in eastern Ukraine. Jonathan, where you are in Ukraine, I mean, it's a very, very tense situation. I mean, we're talking about survival here. So are people paying attention to a new Secretary General of NATO or a speech he might choose to give?

Well, Ukraine is watching closely. It's watching closely because all its weapons, pretty much all the ammunition it's getting at the moment is coming from NATO members in Europe and also the US, obviously, which is its biggest supplier.

It's also watching closely because Ukraine has made very clear it wants to be a member of NATO. It wants the security guarantees that NATO membership gives. So it's watching what Mark Ritter, NATO Secretary General, is saying very closely. And it's still hoping that somehow it will be eventually a member of NATO.

Yes, because there's a lot of talk right now, isn't there, about possible ceasefires. We'll talk about Donald Trump returning to the White House in a minute and what that could mean. And Ukraine is insisting on security guarantees. It believes that comes from NATO. I mean, Jonathan, just tell us a little bit, a potted history about NATO. It was born after the Second World War, wasn't it?

Yeah, born after the Second World War. It is always important to say that NATO is a defensive alliance. That's what it says it is. But it was created because of the concerns of the expanding Soviet empire. It is there to deter any aggressor. And of course, key to the whole NATO membership is Article 5, which essentially says an attack on

on one ally or an attack on one member is interpreted as an attack on all. So it gives those countries that are members of the alliance some security guarantees, the kind of security guarantees, obviously, that Ukraine would like as well. And I mean, when we talk about the allies, I mean, it's a transatlantic military alliance, mainly European, but we have Canada and, of course, the United States, which, and we'll get to this in a moment, of course, foots most of the bill.

The US is one of the largest contributors, about 15% of the NATO budget, but it is the military clout of America that counts for NATO in the sense that the US is the largest military in the world. It is the country that spends most on defence and it provides...

most importantly for NATO, the security of that nuclear umbrella. Members of NATO rely mainly on the US, of course. The UK has nuclear weapons too, or France does, but very much sees theirs as independent to the NATO alliance. But it relies on America for that security guarantee. So without America, NATO would be a shadow of what it is at the moment.

At any one given time, there are between 50,000 to 100,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe. Of course, aircraft carriers come from time to time, but

But then on top of that, there is a commitment for 800,000 US military personnel to come to NATO's defence if required. And you say it's a defence alliance. That's why there's quite a complicated dance that us journalists have to make, isn't there, Jonathan, that when we say NATO is providing military support to Ukraine, that would be incorrect. It's NATO member states providing support. NATO itself can't do that directly.

No. So NATO has tried to coordinate and is coordinating some of that military support. But NATO itself as an organization does not have arms factories, does not produce weapons, and it is reliant on member states to actually contribute to Ukraine directly. And it's always worth remembering that not every NATO member is providing weapons.

So, for example, Hungary, which has always been an awkward member, is against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But Ukraine depends wholly on NATO allies to keep the ammunition flowing, to keep those weapons flowing. And if we listen, though, to Vladimir Putin, he does not see NATO as a defensive alliance. He sees it as an offensive alliance and says there's been steady creeps.

towards the east, towards Russia, and that's why he was forced to take action in Ukraine. We told them, this NATO expansion, don't do it. It violates our security. Still, they did it. Is that just? There is no justice here, and we want to change that, and we'll achieve it.

Sometimes with information warfare going on also all around Europe, you do feel a certain sympathy for that argument in parts of Europe. I mean, in parts of Italy, I've come across it. In Germany, I've come across it.

There may be some sympathy with President Putin's argument about NATO expanding on his border. The first George Bush presidency, there's a suggestion Russia received private assurances that NATO wouldn't expand eastwards to include countries like the Baltic states. That is something that's disputed. But it is important for NATO to always stress that

that it is a defensive alliance and it is responding to what he is doing in Ukraine. You know, there were countries outside the NATO alliance, and I'm talking about Sweden and Finland, who have now joined specifically because

They feel that Russia's war in Ukraine puts them under threat. So that is their argument. And they do not buy this argument that President Putin should be dictating the terms as to which countries can join. That is something they say, that individual countries should be allowed, sovereign nations be allowed to decide for themselves. Which brings us back to where you are now in Ukraine, which wants so much to be a NATO member state. It says that it doesn't accept Ukraine

that it can't join NATO, even if Russia is occupying part of the country? Because when Germany was split to East and West after the Second World War, under communist rule in the East and a Western democracy, the Western part was allowed to join NATO. So Ukraine says it should be allowed to do that as well. There are voices in Europe who say, well, that'll just encourage Vladimir Putin to attack more in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe. How does it feel where you are?

There's certain questions as to why NATO hasn't done more here in Ukraine. For example, one of the early cries was, "NATO, close the skies. Do not let Russia fire missiles or operate jets over Ukrainian airspace. Why doesn't NATO just come in and provide air cover for Ukraine?" That has not happened, and that will not happen.

You've got to remember that NATO is an alliance that works on consensus. So if one country objects to something, then they can't do it. And that is, in a sense, NATO's weakness, that it is reliant on all members agreeing to do something to help another nation. Any attempts at Ukrainian membership are

could be vetoed by one country or a few countries. And that is why I think it's highly unlikely that NATO will accept Ukraine as a member of the alliance anytime soon, because there are, you

you know, significant countries, including the US under Donald Trump, which would not countenance the idea of Ukraine joining NATO. And that is looking to the future, whether there could be NATO membership for Ukraine. What about the present? Donald Trump is returning to the White House. He was no NATO fan. Earlier this year, he said he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members that don't pay their way. They asked me that question. One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said,

"Well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" I said, "You didn't pay. You're delinquent. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills." How worried should NATO be? Because Mark Rutter brushed off suggestions that Donald Trump might walk out the NATO door.

So I think there are certain things that alarm European countries from Donald Trump that he said on the campaign trail, as you said, that if you don't pay your way, you don't get protection. Russia can do what the hell it likes to those countries that don't pay their way. There's a misunderstanding as far as Donald Trump is concerned about what NATO is. He thinks it's like a club and you pay a membership fee. NATO is not that. It sets goals as to how much they should spend on defence and

But there is no punishment if a country doesn't spend that on defence. And as we know, there are countries in the NATO alliance who do not spend 2%, the goal it set out in 2014, on their military.

I think it's important to say also that Donald Trump is not the first president when he was president in 2018 who have criticized many some allies for essentially just relying on the U.S., freeloading on the U.S. for their own defenses. And that was particularly true

After the Cold War, the countries stopped spending much on defence, reduced the size of their military capabilities and their militaries. That is slowly changing, but it's been a constant refrain from the US that they are paying for Europe's security. So we've looked at what's going on in Ukraine and NATO's role. Will Donald Trump stay the course? And could Europe go alone in terms of defence if it has to?

Alright, we're all set for the party. I've trimmed the tree, hung the mistletoe, and paired all those weird-shaped knives and forks with the appropriate cheeses. And I plugged in the partition. Partition? It's a home cocktail maker that makes over 60 premium cocktails. Plus a whole lot of seasonal favorites, too. I just got it for

So how about a Closmopolitan or a mistletoe margarita? I'm thirsty. Watch. I just pop in a capsule, choose my strength, and... Wow. It's beginning to feel more seasonal in here already. If your holiday party doesn't have a bartender, then you become the bartender. Unless you've got a Bartesian. Because Bartesian crafts every cocktail perfectly in as little as 30 seconds. And I just got it for $50 off. Tis the season to be jollier.

Add some holiday flavor to every celebration with the sleek, sophisticated home cocktail maker, Bartesian. Get $50 off any cocktail maker at bartesian.com slash cocktail. That's B-A-R-T-E-S-I-A-N dot com slash cocktail. Every day when you log in to chumbacasino.com, the ultimate online social casino, you get a free daily bonus. Imagine if you got daily bonuses in other parts of your life. I chose french fries. Overloaded french fries. I

I asked Stuart from accounting about his weekend, even though I don't care. I updated my operating system without having to call tech support. Collect your free daily bonus at ChumbaCasino.com now. And live the Chumba life.

This is The Global Story. We bring you one big international story in detail five days a week. Follow or subscribe wherever you listen. With me is Jonathan Beale. Jonathan, how likely is Mark Rutter the new secretary general? How likely is it he will keep Donald Trump on board? He does have a nickname as the Trump whisperer. He certainly wasn't chosen as the new secretary general.

And because the Netherlands, he's former prime minister of the Netherlands, has a good track record in defence spending because it was very known to be low when he was prime minister for 14 years. Yeah, it took essentially 10 years for the Netherlands, when Mark Rutte was the prime minister of the Netherlands, to reach that 2% target. Even he admits that it took them too long now. And to some, it does seem a bit rich for him to preach this message of spend more on defence when he was so slow to do it.

himself. But I think Mark Rutter does have a number of things going his way. And that is, as you say, a personal relationship with Donald Trump. So when Donald Trump was criticizing European countries in 2018, not spending enough on defense, he wasn't pointing the finger at Mark Rutter, even though he had every right to. He's pointing the finger mostly at Germany. And Mark Rutter was very careful when he was the prime minister of the Netherlands to give credit to Donald Trump

for forcing countries to spend more on defence of that 2018 NATO summit. And that has played dividends in terms of his personal relationship with Donald Trump. He's already gone as NATO Secretary General to have a private meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. So, you know, there is some investment in their personal relationship. So we're talking about Mark Rutte here, the new NATO Secretary General. He gave his big first speech just the other day here in Brussels, and I sat down with him straight after.

The United States, Donald Trump, he says Europe has to pay its way. Are you worried if Europe doesn't up its spending that he could turn his back on this transatlantic alliance? But we will spend more because otherwise... Are you worried he might turn his back though? No, I'm not because it won't come to that. And I don't want to spend more because of Donald Trump. So he's right that we have to spend more, absolutely. He was right, he is still right. But when you look at the facts,

we should not need Donald Trump to decide to spend more on defence. We have to do it because it is in our interest. I noticed when I spoke to Mark Rutter that he was using a very similar technique. It's flattery to Donald Trump. It was the same flattery that he used in 2018. You're right, Donald Trump, you're right. We do all need to spend a lot more on defence. So even though he was speaking to Europeans here in Brussels...

Actually, I felt a lot of this message was directed towards the United States, towards the incoming president. So there's flattery. And also the fact that when he was at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate just at the end of November, he was also using that tactic of Donald Trump wanting to be on top of things, a winner, to put America first. And he was saying, you know,

what's happening in Ukraine isn't just about Russia-Ukraine, because if there's a bad peace deal for Ukraine in here, then there's going to be a massive high five between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran as well. And so he's hoping to persuade the United States that it's in its interest to remain invested in European security. Will Donald Trump be persuaded? Well, I think you're absolutely right to the point.

that Mark Ritter is playing essentially to Donald Trump's ego and he has given him the credit for forcing European countries to increase defence spending when the reality probably is

that European countries suddenly increased defence spending, most of them, after Russia's full-scale invasion. So he's essentially giving credit where you could debate credit is not due. I think it is important, though, that what Mark Rutter is doing is also what, to some extent, President Zelensky is doing.

Ukraine here knows that things could change dramatically under a Donald Trump presidency, that they could have some of their military aid withdrawn, if not all of it.

that there could be peace negotiations or attempts at peace negotiations. And they want to see Donald Trump as a winner too. And part of their calculus is the same as Mark Ritter's calculus, that you appeal to Donald Trump's ego. You tell him that it is his strength that can resolve this crisis and it is making Ukraine strong and keeping it strong that will help resolve this crisis. You want to tell him that,

that he is in a position of power where he can decide the future. And if he wants to win, really win, then that means taking on Vladimir Putin and not allowing him to win this war.

For many in Europe, that war does seem far away and they don't want to reduce spending on social security, for example, in order to give more to the defence budget. And Mark Ritter saying that Europe is short-sighted because there's not only a threat of unconventional warfare, but also conventional warfare. He says in four or five years time, there could be long range missiles from Russia that

to the United Kingdom, into The Hague in the Netherlands. That's what he told me. How likely is it that Russia under Vladimir Putin would roll the tanks into a NATO member state like Poland, compared to disinformation, misinformation, cyber attacks, or critical infrastructure like those internet cables for financial transactions? Both are true. He did roll his tanks into Ukraine. Why couldn't he?

Not a NATO member state. Yeah, not a NATO member state. But at the same time, if NATO is not in four or five years able to keep up the deterrence, which is necessary to make sure that Putin will not do that, why would he not roll his tanks into Poland or fly out his missiles to the United Kingdom or to The Hague?

So there is a risk and you are right also that already at this moment we are faced with, and I hate this word hybrid, but when you look at cyber attacks, look what happened in the UK with assassination attempts in Salisbury. When you look at sabotage, what he is doing with jamming in the Baltics of commercial flights, it is presenting a big risk. So that's happening already. Do you see that as credible or is this scare tactics?

Well, he's not alone in talking about the dangers of this conflict widening to other European countries. We've heard similar from Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister. We've heard senior British military commanders, senior NATO commanders as well, warning that Russia does not see the end of its goals in defeating Ukraine, which it clearly wants to do and which is swallowing up all its resources and resources.

and time at the moment. But that will not be the end of it, is the warning. So I don't think you should see what Mark Rutter is saying in isolation because many other people are saying it. And I think that they're saying it, and it's particularly senior military officers saying it, because they know that most...

Most European countries are ill-prepared for a conflict that they have, through the peace dividend after the end of the Cold War, reduced the size of their militaries. They have reduced the output of their weapons factories. So I don't think we should think of what Margaret is saying is scaremongering, because he's not alone in saying this. But as you say, there is a disconnect, which he wants to highlight, between what European populations feel and what governments are doing. If...

Donald Trump reduces military support, if he does concentrate on Asia, for example, and turns his back more on Europe, can Europe go it alone? Yes, there's talks about not just agreeing this 2% of GDP spending, which was agreed 10 years ago, but 2.5, that's what the UK is aiming for, three possibly in the near future, if that's possible. Is that enough? How worried should Europeans feel?

feel? You have to look at Donald Trump's rhetoric, then compare it with the reality. And I think if we look at last time, there was rhetoric about pulling out of NATO from Donald Trump, but it didn't happen. And I think Europeans hope that will be the case in a second Donald Trump term. I think it's important to say that even if Donald Trump did want for America to leave NATO,

if he did follow through on some of the things he said, it would be very difficult for him to do it for the simple reason that last year, Congress passed legislation which essentially says no president can suspend, terminate, denounce or withdraw from NATO without either an act of Congress or the approval of two-thirds of the US Senate. I mean, interestingly, that's

legislation was passed with the backing of Senator Marco Rubio, who is, of course, Donald Trump's choice as the next Secretary of State.

But could Europe go it alone in terms of defence? Europe couldn't go it alone in terms of defence, not least because it doesn't have the nuclear umbrella. Only the UK would be providing a nuclear umbrella for NATO if the US pulled out. I think that's unlikely, as you say. It couldn't do it alone in terms of providing Ukraine with the weapons they need, the US's

The US is still by far the largest provider of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine and the weapons they need and even the ones that Europe provides originate from the US. So they have to get US approval. And Europe doesn't have its own capabilities that the US has. For example, in space, it doesn't have air defenses.

missile defenses like the U.S. has. It does not have the size of military that the U.S. has. A lot of European countries, as I mentioned, have cut the size of their military because they are expensive. They

They're now looking at increasing numbers, talking about conscription, but they cannot fill the numbers, the money, the finance, the technical know-how and the nuclear umbrella that the US provides. So Europe can talk about improving its situation, addressing some of those capability gaps, but it'll take them a long time to do that. It doesn't happen overnight.

Jonathan Beale in Ukraine, do take care and thank you very much. Thank you Katya, good speaking to you. And thanks so much to you for listening. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at theglobalstoryatbbc.com or send us a message or voice note on WhatsApp. Our number is plus44 330 123 9480 and you can find all those details in our show notes.

Wherever you're listening in the world, this has been The Global Story. Thanks for having us in your headphones. Goodbye. Yoga is more than just exercise. It's the spiritual practice that millions swear by.

And in 2017, Miranda, a university tutor from London, joins a yoga school that promises profound transformation. It felt a really safe and welcoming space. After the yoga classes, I felt amazing. But soon, that calm, welcoming atmosphere leads to something far darker, a journey that leads to allegations of grooming, trafficking and exploitation across international borders.

I don't have my passport, I don't have my phone, I don't have my bank cards, I have nothing. The passport being taken, the being in a house and not feeling like they can leave.

You just get sucked in so gradually.

And it's done so skillfully that you don't realize. And it's like this, the secret that's there. I wanted to believe that, you know, that whatever they were doing, even if it seemed gross to me,

was for some spiritual reason that I couldn't yet understand. Revealing the hidden secrets of a global yoga network. I feel that I have no other choice. The only thing I can do is to speak about this and to put my reputation and everything else on the line. I want truth and justice.

And for other people to not be hurt, for things to be different in the future. To bring it into the light and almost alchemise some of that evil stuff that went on and take back the power. World of Secrets, Season 6, The Bad Guru. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.