What Can Tip The Race In The Tar Heel State

2024/10/23

The Fox News Rundown

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript

People

Bill Hemmer

Dave Anthony

Guy Benson

Jessica Rosenthal

Jessica Tarlov

Tomi Lahren

Topics

Dave Anthony：本期节目讨论了2024年美国总统大选在北卡罗来纳州的选情。早期投票数据显示共和党选民的积极性高于民主党选民，但尚不清楚这是否会影响最终投票结果。副总统哈里斯访问了密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等战场州，并批评特朗普不稳定。特朗普则称哈里斯为"最差副总统"，智商低。特朗普在北卡罗来纳州举行集会，呼吁取得压倒性胜利，并批评联邦政府对飓风灾难的应对。民主党批评特朗普在北卡罗来纳州传播虚假信息。 Jessica Rosenthal：两位候选人都将重点放在争取关键人口群体上，民主党关注黑人男性和温和派白人女性，共和党关注女性选民。哈里斯竞选活动的时间较短，这有利有弊。选举之夜可能会揭示一些重要的趋势，尽管不一定能确定最终获胜者。如果黑人选民对哈里斯的支持率下降，或者温和派白人女性选民对特朗普或哈里斯的支持率上升，都可能影响选举结果。民主党人希望选举结果能够避免像上次一样出现争议。哈里斯竞选活动应该关注关键人口群体，并持续努力争取选民，因为选举结果非常接近。民调显示，近期决定投票的选民更倾向于哈里斯。哈里斯竞选活动正在采取各种策略争取选民，包括与不同人士合作举办活动。哈里斯竞选活动前往德克萨斯州进行拉票活动，这表明他们仍在努力争取选民。哈里斯竞选活动对"蓝色防线"中的一个州可能出现滑坡表示担忧，并特别关注黑人男性选民的支持率。哈里斯竞选活动对威斯康星州比对密歇根州更有信心，并且黑人男性选民的支持率下降是他们关注的问题。哈里斯竞选活动正在努力争取黑人男性选民，同时也在争取受过高等教育的温和派白人女性选民。哈里斯竞选活动需要关注哪些选民群体能够真正参与投票。民主党人认为他们的选民群体比共和党人更有可能投票。民主党人需要关注年轻的黑人和白人男性选民的长期投票参与度。 Bill Hemmer：民主党需要在人口稠密的城市（如北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特）获得良好表现才能赢得北卡罗来纳州。梅克伦堡县及其周边地区历来是共和党支持者，但特朗普寻求第三任期可能会影响投票结果。截至目前，北卡罗来纳州已有近一百万人进行现场投票，存在明显的性别差距，男性支持特朗普，女性支持哈里斯。北卡罗来纳州的性别投票差距可能很大，女性支持哈里斯，男性支持特朗普。北卡罗来纳州的主要城市夏洛特、格林斯博罗和罗利形成了一个三角形区域，对选举结果至关重要。自2020年以来，北卡罗来纳州的人口结构发生了变化，这可能是选举结果的一个隐藏因素。人口从高税收州迁往北卡罗来纳州可能是人口结构变化的原因之一。飓风海伦对阿什维尔地区的影响以及对灾难应对的政治化，可能会影响选举结果。北卡罗来纳州西部受飓风海伦影响的25个县中，邦科姆县（阿什维尔所在地）是民主党票仓，而其他24个县则倾向于共和党。邦科姆县是一个在共和党占主导地位的地区中的民主党票仓，类似于威斯康星州的戴恩县。尽管邦科姆县在2020年为拜登提供了大量选票，但受飓风影响的其他24个县却为特朗普提供了更多选票。飓风海伦的影响难以预测，可能体现在最终投票结果或选民分析中。即使在飓风过后，阿什维尔地区的早期投票人数依然很多，这表明选民的投票积极性并未受到影响。飓风灾后重建工作可能会影响选民的投票意愿。飓风灾难应对的政治化可能影响选民的投票意愿，但难以预测其影响程度。对北卡罗来纳州的选民分析显示了一些意料之外的结果。新汉诺威县在2016年和2020年之间发生了选票变化，这值得关注。新不伦瑞克县是美国增长最快的县之一，其投票结果可能出人意料。北卡罗来纳州东南部地区存在多种类型的选民，其投票结果难以预测。北卡罗来纳州的农村白人选民的投票倾向与佐治亚州不同。北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州的农村白人选民的投票行为存在差异。预测北卡罗来纳州的选举结果比其他战场州更难。由于早期投票的重要性，在选举日之前就可能预测出选举结果。共和党选民的投票积极性高于民主党选民，但尚不清楚这是否会影响最终结果。哈里斯需要赢得"蓝色防线"（威斯康星州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州）才能获胜；特朗普需要赢得佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和宾夕法尼亚州才能获胜。特朗普更需要赢得北卡罗来纳州。如果特朗普输掉北卡罗来纳州，他需要赢得亚利桑那州、内华达州或"蓝色防线"中的一个州。威斯康星州历来是竞争激烈的州。 Tomi Lahren

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is North Carolina a crucial battleground state in the 2024 election?

It has 16 electoral votes and is historically close, making it a key state for both candidates.

Why are both campaigns focusing on specific demographic groups in the final weeks?

They aim to shore up support among crucial parts of their bases and potentially sway undecided voters.

Why is Vice President Harris focusing on young black men and moderate white women?

These groups are areas where the campaign perceives potential weakness.

Why is former President Trump emphasizing a positive message in his final campaign push?

The campaign appears confident and aims to maintain momentum with a positive tone.

Why is the response to Hurricane Helene becoming a political issue?

Trump criticized the federal response, drawing Democratic ire and potentially affecting voter sentiment.

Why is Mecklenburg County significant in the North Carolina election?

It's a populous urban and suburban area where Democrats need to perform well to win the state.

Why is there a gender gap in the polling data for North Carolina?

Trump leads among men, while Harris leads among women, creating a significant divide.

Why might the demographics of North Carolina have changed since 2020?

COVID-19 led to migration from high-tax states to North Carolina, potentially altering voter profiles.

Why is the storm response in North Carolina a potential factor in the election?

It could motivate or dissuade voters depending on their views on the federal response and local recovery efforts.

Why might the Harris campaign be concerned about black men's support?

There are indications of less support among black men, which is crucial for Democratic victories.

Chapters

The podcast discusses the significance of North Carolina in the 2024 presidential race, highlighting its 16 electoral votes and the state's historical voting patterns.

North Carolina is a crucial battleground state with 16 electoral votes.
Trump is currently leading in the polls, but the state has been historically elusive for Democrats.
Charlotte's Mecklenburg County is a key area for Democrats to win the state.

Shownotes Transcript

Former President Trump campaigned in North Carolina this week to drum up support amongst voters in the hurricane-ravaged state. The latest FOX News Power Rankings show that Trump is three points ahead of Vice President in the Tar Heel State. With 16 electoral votes on the line, North Carolina is highly sought after by both candidates. Co-host of America's Newsroom Bill Hemmer joins to break down takeaways from the latest FOX News Power Rankings and give us insight into voter behavior in North Carolina.

A battle of the coalitions is brewing ahead of Election Day, as both the GOP and Democrats encourage crucial parts of their bases to get out the vote. First, co-host of The Five and Democratic strategist Jessica Tarlov joins the Rundown to explain how Vice President Harris has planned the last leg of her campaign around shoring up support among young black men and moderate white women voters. Later, host of ‘The Guy Benson Show’ on Fox News Radio Guy Benson joins to analyze former President Trump’s final campaign message to women voters and his supporters as a whole.

Plus, commentary from the host of “Tomi Lahren is Fearless on Outkick,” Tomi Lahren.

Photo Credit: AP

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices)

What Can Tip The Race In The Tar Heel State 33:41 Share