From Washington: Why the Presidential Race Remains Relatively Tied

2024/10/26

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Antony Blinken

Jared Halpern

Kyle Kondik

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Jared Halpern：就目前来看，2024年美国总统大选结果难料，特朗普和哈里斯的支持率不相上下。提前投票数据显示，民主党和共和党的支持率差距不大，难以预测最终结果。 Kyle Kondik：民调显示，本次大选结果可能非常接近，甚至与2016年和2020年大选一样胶着。提前投票数据显示，民主党在提前投票中的优势不如2020年，但选举日投票结果可能也不如2020年那样有利于共和党。目前没有明显的领先者，特朗普的支持率虽然有所提高，但还不够让他成为明显的领先者。未决定的选民数量不多，他们需要决定是否投票以及投票给谁。候选人的竞选策略暗示了他们认为哪些选民是可以争取的。七个关键州仍然是摇摆州，特朗普在阳光地带的表现不错，但还不够让他赢得这些州。密歇根州仍然是这七个州中最偏向民主党的州，如果哈里斯输掉密歇根州，她将很难赢得大选。威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州是真正的摇摆州。预测选举结果除了民调数据，还包括历史数据、来自各方人士的信息以及对提前投票结果的分析。内部民调数据可能比公开民调数据更可靠，但其可靠性仍有待考量。提前投票结果对预测选举结果的帮助有限。可能出现全国普选结果接近，但选举人团结果差距较大的情况。2016年和2020年大选的选举人团结果差距都比较大，这表明今年也可能出现类似的情况。特朗普在2016年赢得了七个关键州中的六个，拜登在2020年赢得了七个关键州中的六个，这表明今年也可能出现类似的情况。如何平衡争取低投票率选民和动员核心支持者的需求？即使是民主党核心支持者中的黑人男性，也需要被争取；特朗普阵营采用分散的选民动员模式。难以评估共和党阵营的选民动员策略的有效性。特朗普阵营将目标锁定在低投票率群体，例如年轻男性，这存在一定的风险。本次大选的投票率可能很高，但可能不如2020年。特朗普是一个选民动员机器，但他同时动员了双方的选民。共和党很有可能赢得参议院多数席位，甚至可能获得超过52个席位。众议院选举形势非常胶着，总统大选获胜者很可能也赢得众议院多数席位。内布拉斯加州的共和党候选人仍然很有可能获胜，得克萨斯州的共和党候选人也有可能获胜。共和党在目前掌控的参议院席位中，仍然占据优势。 John Smith: ...[每位发言人至少200字]

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump so close?

The race remains tight due to a divided electorate and recent polling trends showing a tightening race.

What role does early voting play in the current election?

Early voting doesn't seem to favor Democrats as much as in 2020 due to reduced mail-in voting post-pandemic.

Why are some states seeing a high number of early voters?

States like Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan have seen high early voter turnout, but it's unclear if it benefits one candidate.

How do the campaigns target undecided voters in the final week?

Harris focuses on soft Republicans, while Trump targets younger men and black voters.

What is the significance of Michigan in the presidential race?

Michigan is historically bluer than other key states, and its loss could be critical for Harris.

How does the FBI investigation into leaked intelligence documents affect U.S.-Israel relations?

The leak could have a chilling effect on espionage operations and trust between allies.

What is the potential impact of North Korean soldiers joining Russia in Ukraine?

North Korea's involvement could lead to increased collaboration and intelligence sharing between Russia and North Korea.

Why is the Biden administration optimistic about a ceasefire in Gaza?

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is seen as an opportunity to restart peace talks.

What are the challenges in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza?

Hamas's irreconcilable nature and the lack of a clear leader make negotiations difficult.

How does Israel's potential response to Iran's missile attacks affect regional stability?

Israel's delayed response keeps Iran on edge and could escalate tensions further.

Chapters

The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains extremely tight with just 10 days until Election Day. Polls show both candidates tied at 48%, and early voting data suggests no clear advantage for either side.

Both candidates are tied at 48% in the latest polls.
Early voting data shows no clear advantage for either party.
The race is expected to remain close until the final results are in.

Shownotes Transcript

Since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, the story of this election cycle has been how close the race appears to be. Now, with only 10 days until Election Day, former President Trump and Vice President Harris remain neck-and-neck — but could last-minute momentum change the state of the race? Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, discusses why the race remains so tight, what he's learning from early voting and recent polls, and how he believes the race may change during these final days.

The FBI has opened an investigation into the leak of top-secret U.S. intelligence documents relating to a potential attack on Iranian targets by Israel. As the fallout from that continues, talks are set to resume between Arab nations and Israel on a possible ceasefire as tensions continue to reach a fever pitch in the region. **FOX News Contributor and Former CIA Bureau Chief Dan Hoffman **details how these developments could affect diplomacy and the intelligence community. Plus, a look at what North Korean soldiers joining the Russians in Ukraine means for the greater international order, and the potential for foreign entities to sow discord in U.S. elections.

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