From Washington: The Paths To Victory For Each Candidate

2024/11/2

The Fox News Rundown

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript

People

Chad Pergram

Daron Shaw

Jessica Rosenthal

Ryan Schmelz

Topics

Jessica Rosenthal：每个候选人都有多条达到270张选举人票的路径，有些路径比较容易，有些比较难。 Ryan Schmelz：宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和北卡罗来纳州的民调结果在误差范围内打平，其他数据显示哈里斯副总统在某些议题上表现更好。根据民调，如果亚利桑那州和北卡罗来纳州投给特朗普，并且他赢得宾夕法尼亚州，而哈里斯赢得密歇根州，那么最终结果将取决于佐治亚州、威斯康星州和内华达州的选举结果。宾夕法尼亚州是关键的战场州，对两位候选人来说都有多种获胜的路径。 Daron Shaw：哈里斯最有可能的获胜路径是赢得三个“蓝墙”州（宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州）；特朗普最有可能的获胜路径是赢得“阳光地带”州。从最有利于特朗普到最有利于哈里斯的州，依次为佐治亚州、内华达州、亚利桑那州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州、密歇根州。北卡罗来纳州的选情比预期更胶着，这与共和党在该州的一些问题有关。如果哈里斯输掉宾夕法尼亚州，她可能需要赢得北卡罗来纳州和内华达州才能获胜。如果两位候选人都没有赢得宾夕法尼亚州，他们需要赢得其他哪些州才能获胜？虽然三个“蓝墙”州的选举结果往往一致，但每个州也有一些独特的因素可能会影响最终结果。亚利桑那州的选情从“胶着”变为“倾向于特朗普”，这与移民问题有关。哈里斯在经济问题上的表现比拜登在7月份的表现有所改善。内华达州的经济问题（通货膨胀和失业）可能会对选举结果产生影响。最新的民调显示，宾夕法尼亚州的选情胶着，特朗普在独立选民中的支持率较高，但哈里斯在非MAGA共和党人中的支持率也较高。哈里斯的竞选策略是争取非MAGA共和党人的选票，这是一种冒险的策略。特朗普能否赢得足够多的拉丁裔、非裔美国人和年轻选民的选票，将是决定选举结果的关键因素之一。密歇根州的选情也比较胶着，独立选民和非MAGA共和党人对哈里斯的支持率较高。密歇根州的选情对哈里斯有利，但罗伯特·肯尼迪的参选可能会影响最终结果。民调方法的改进，例如增加样本量、调整教育水平权重、采用多种调查方式（电话、网络、纸质问卷）等，旨在减少非响应偏差，提高民调准确性。但特朗普的支持者仍然不太愿意参与民调。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Pennsylvania considered crucial for both candidates' paths to victory?

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is a toss-up state with multiple paths to 270 for both candidates.

What are the key swing states discussed in the podcast?

Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia.

Why might Vice President Harris need to carry North Carolina and Nevada if she doesn't win Pennsylvania?

These states provide the necessary electoral votes to reach 270 if Pennsylvania is lost.

What is the significance of the Senate potentially ending in a 50-50 tie?

A tie would mean the Vice President would break the tie, determining control of the Senate.

Why might we not know which party controls Congress by November 13th?

Close races and potential recounts could delay the determination of control.

What are the potential scenarios if the Senate ends in a 50-50 tie?

A power-sharing agreement or a shift in caucusing could determine control.

Why is polling more challenging this time around?

Trump supporters are less likely to respond, creating non-response bias.

What are the potential implications of RFK Jr. being on the ballot in Michigan?

His presence could draw votes away from Trump, potentially affecting the outcome.

Why might Mike Johnson face difficulties in becoming Speaker of the House?

He needs a majority of all 435 members voting for him, which is challenging with internal party opposition.

What are some early races to watch on election night for indications of overall trends?

Virginia, Maine, New York, Ohio, and southern New Mexico are key districts.

Chapters

The discussion focuses on the electoral map and the importance of swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada for both candidates' paths to 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania is crucial with 19 electoral votes.
Harris needs North Carolina and Nevada if she can't carry Pennsylvania.
Trump's potential paths include winning Arizona and North Carolina.

Shownotes Transcript

FOX News Pollster and Political Science Professor Daron Shaw lays out how each key swing state currently looks for both former President Trump and Vice President Harris. Does it all come down to Pennsylvania, or are there other scenarios where it could come down to Arizona, Wisconsin, or even a wild card?

With the race for Senate coming down to the wire, a 50-50 tie is certainly in the realm of possibility. Both sets of Republican leadership have their elections scheduled for November 13th. However, there is a chance we won't know which party controls Congress by then. FOX News Senior Congressional Correspondent Chad Pergram gives a brief history of ties in Congress and breaks down what races to watch on Tuesday.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices)

From Washington: The Paths To Victory For Each Candidate 48:49 Share