Extra: Reading The Election's Tea Leaves
2024/11/2
The Fox News Rundown
J
Jessica Rosenthal
P
Patrick Ruffini
Jessica Rosenthal：本期节目讨论了2024年美国大选的最新民调结果、选民登记趋势以及关键摇摆州的选情分析。采访了共和党民调专家Patrick Ruffini，探讨了民调的准确性、自2016年以来民调方法的改进以及接触选民的挑战。节目还分析了选民登记向共和党和无党派人士的转变，以及在关键摇摆州的关键选区和县的选情。
Patrick Ruffini：目前大选形势非常胶着。特朗普团队可以凭借近期公布的提前投票数据和宾夕法尼亚州最终选民登记数据来证明其优势。然而，哈里斯阵营也可能面临一些挑战，例如阳光地带州共和党人提前投票比例上升以及黑人选民投票率下降。全国民调结果已收紧，特朗普团队声称占据了部分优势，但他们最关心的问题是锈带地区的情况。如果特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州这三个州都落败，那么他可能输掉大选。
2020年民调的一个主要问题是样本中大学毕业生比例过高，导致结果偏向民主党；今年的争议在于是否应该根据2020年总统大选的结果进行加权，因为人们的记忆和实际投票结果可能存在差异。现在越来越难通过民调接触到人们，共和党人可能不太愿意参与民调，这在数据较少的州（如威斯康星州）尤其成问题，而数据较多的州（如宾夕法尼亚州）则可以通过其他数据进行调整。
在所有拥有选民登记数据的摇摆州，共和党都比民主党获得了更多选民，但更多的人选择成为无党派人士；在宾夕法尼亚州，虽然整体登记显示民主党领先，但新登记选民中共和党人多于民主党人，预计实际投票中两党选民比例将接近。
在宾夕法尼亚州等摇摆州，选举结果往往取决于较小的城市，而不是大城市。哈里斯需要保持民主党在非裔美国人中的传统支持率，并在宾夕法尼亚州等地争取郊区选民。在北卡罗来纳州，特朗普需要关注罗利的西部地区以及东部地区，特别是纳什和威尔逊县，那里有更多社会保守的非裔美国人选民。在威斯康星州，特朗普需要关注格林贝地区、阿普尔顿和奥什科什等较小的城市。目前共和党的热情有所上升，但这种热情是否能够抵消哈里斯之前的优势尚不清楚；已经投出的选票限制了选举结果后期发生重大变化的可能性。
Patrick Ruffini: The election is very close. Team Trump can point to positive data points in early voting and final voter registration data from Pennsylvania. However, there are potential turnout problems for Harris, such as increased early voting among Republicans in Sunbelt states and lower turnout among Black voters. Nationally, polls have tightened, and Team Trump claims some momentum, but their biggest concern is the Rust Belt. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he likely loses the election. In 2020, a major issue with polls was an overrepresentation of college graduates, skewing results toward Democrats. This year, the controversy is whether to weight results based on the 2020 election, as people's memories and actual votes may differ. Reaching people for polls is harder now, and Republicans may be less likely to participate, a problem in states like Wisconsin with less data, while states like Pennsylvania can adjust using other data. Republicans have gained more voters than Democrats in swing states with voter registration data, but more people are becoming unaffiliated. In Pennsylvania, while overall registration shows Democrats ahead, Republicans outnumber Democrats among new registrants, and the actual vote is expected to be close. In swing states, elections often depend on smaller cities, not large ones. Harris needs to maintain traditional support among African Americans and win over suburban voters in states like Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, Trump needs to focus on areas west of Raleigh and eastern areas, especially Nash and Wilson counties, with more socially conservative Black voters. In Wisconsin, Trump needs to focus on smaller cities like Green Bay, Appleton, and Oshkosh. Republican enthusiasm has increased, but whether this offsets Harris's previous advantage is unclear; the votes already cast limit the potential for late changes.
Deep Dive
Patrick Ruffini discusses the closeness of the election and the potential turnout problems for Kamala Harris, as well as the Rust Belt's significance in the race.
- Team Trump points to early voting data and final voter registration data in Pennsylvania.
- Lower turnout from black voters is historically a poor omen for Democrats.
- The Rust Belt states are crucial; if Trump falls short in all three, it could decide the election.
Shownotes Transcript