Extra: Bill Hemmer On The Nail-Biter In North Carolina
2024/10/27
The Fox News Rundown
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Bill Hemmer
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Dave Anthony
Bill Hemmer: 北卡罗来纳州是2024年美国总统大选中一个关键的摇摆州，拥有16张选举人票。目前的民调显示，特朗普和哈里斯的支持率非常接近，选情胶着。梅克伦堡县是北卡罗来纳州人口最多的县之一，民主党能否在此赢得胜利将对最终结果产生重大影响。此外，提前投票人数众多，飓风海伦的影响以及人口结构的变化，都将是影响选举结果的重要因素。在对早期投票数据的分析中，虽然飓风海伦对北卡罗来纳州西部地区造成严重破坏，但提前投票的热情依然很高，这可能表明选民的投票意愿并未受到影响。此外，他还分析了该州不同地区，例如东部地区，以及不同人口群体的投票倾向，指出农村白人选民的投票倾向与佐治亚州有所不同，这增加了选举结果的不确定性。他认为，提前投票的数据，特别是针对不同族裔的投票数据，可能提供关于选举结果的线索。他还比较了提前投票和邮寄投票的差异，指出提前投票更难以受到挑战。最后，他总结了特朗普和哈里斯分别需要赢得哪些州才能最终获胜，并强调了北卡罗来纳州对双方都至关重要的地位。
Dave Anthony: 北卡罗来纳州在历史上对民主党来说一直是一个难以攻克的州，除了奥巴马赢得其中一届总统选举外，其他民主党候选人都未能在此获胜。特朗普两次赢得北卡罗来纳州，并且在2020年的选举中比2016年更接近。民主党需要在人口稠密的城市地区取得好成绩，尤其是在梅克伦堡县。此外，他还关注到全国范围内存在的性别差距，男性更倾向于支持特朗普，女性更倾向于支持哈里斯。他还提出了关于北卡罗来纳州人口结构变化的问题，认为自2020年以来，人口结构的变化可能是影响选举结果的一个隐藏因素。他还讨论了飓风海伦的影响以及政府的灾后应对措施，认为这可能成为影响选举结果的政治因素。最后，他还与Bill Hemmer讨论了关于佐治亚州选举的经验，以及如何利用提前投票数据来预测选举结果。
Deep Dive
Why is North Carolina considered a pivotal swing state in the 2024 presidential election?
It has 16 electoral votes and is closely contested, making it crucial for both Trump and Harris.
Why has Mecklenburg County in North Carolina been a focus for political strategists?
It's a heavily populated urban and suburban area where Democrats have struggled to gain a majority.
How might Hurricane Helene affect voter turnout in western North Carolina?
It could either motivate voters to ensure their voices are heard or dissuade them due to ongoing recovery efforts.
Why is early in-person voting significant in gauging election outcomes?
It provides insights into voter enthusiasm and can hint at demographic trends before Election Day.
What role does voter ID law play in mail-in voting in North Carolina?
It requires additional verification, making mail-in ballots potentially more susceptible to challenges.
Why might North Carolina be crucial for Trump's electoral strategy?
Losing North Carolina would force Trump to win other states like Arizona or Michigan, which are less certain.
Bill Hemmer discusses the significance of North Carolina as a swing state in the 2024 presidential election, highlighting its 16 electoral votes and the close race between Trump and Harris. He breaks down the state's demographics, early voting trends, and the potential impact of Hurricane Helene.
- North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and is considered a pivotal swing state.
- The state is closely divided between Trump and Harris, with polls showing a neck-and-neck race.
- Early voting and demographic shifts, particularly in urban and suburban areas, are key factors.
Shownotes Transcript