cover of episode Business Rundown: Voters Get Cloudy Economic Picture Before Election Day

Business Rundown: Voters Get Cloudy Economic Picture Before Election Day

2024/11/1
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Edward Lawrence
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Geri Willis
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Geri Willis:最新的就业报告显示就业增长大幅放缓,这给即将到来的选举日带来了不确定性。这份报告显示,10月份仅新增1.2万个就业岗位,远低于预期的10万个。报告中显示的就业增长放缓,部分原因是波音工人的大规模罢工以及飓风对许多美国工人的负面影响。但即使考虑到这些因素,经济学家们也认为这份报告显示了一个令人担忧的数据点,这可能是更大趋势的一部分。失业率小幅上升,工资单数据修正减少了8月和9月的11.2万个就业岗位。特朗普竞选团队利用这份报告作为选举前的素材,而拜登-哈里斯政府则表示经济依然强劲。选民应该如何看待这份报告以及它对经济的意义? Edward Lawrence:白宫将就业报告疲软归咎于飓风海伦和米尔顿以及波音罢工。虽然总体新增1.2万个就业岗位,但制造业却减少了4万个就业岗位,这令人担忧。政府部门就业岗位大幅增加,而私营部门就业岗位却减少,这更令人担忧。波音的裁员可能解释了4.4万个工作岗位的损失,但飓风的影响尚不清楚。飓风的影响可能被夸大了,制造业就业岗位持续下降。白宫对制造业就业岗位流失的解释是将其与表现略好一些的建筑业就业岗位合并,但这是一种长期以来的说法。经济顾问委员会建议关注长期趋势,但制造业就业岗位的下降趋势令人担忧。这份报告既可以被视为政治人物眼中的灾难,也可以被视为经济持续增长和创造就业岗位的证据。劳动力市场受到挤压,未来找工作会越来越难,但市场对这份报告的反应是积极的,因为这意味着美联储可能会降息。这份报告预示着未来12个月找工作将越来越难。就业报告的月度修正幅度很大,这让人质疑其可靠性。就业报告中存在大量噪音,过去六份报告中有五份被大幅向下修正。美联储也承认这些数字不可靠,更关注长期趋势,即新增就业岗位越来越少。劳工统计局正在审查就业数字持续向下修正的原因,这可能与非法劳工的统计有关。收入增长超过预期,通胀压力持续存在,住房价格持续上涨。核心通胀率接近3%,主要来自住房,美联储认为租金会下降,但目前尚未看到这种情况。由于住房短缺和人口涌入,租金和房价可能不会下降。公司收入增加,因为人们购买的商品更少,但价格更高。最新的JOLTS调查显示,离职率下降,公司提供的就业岗位减少,这反映了更广泛的经济状况。经济似乎在底部徘徊,美联储已将关注点从通胀转向就业问题,担心经济放缓。政府支出支撑了经济增长,如果政府支出减少,经济可能面临大幅放缓。如果政府补贴减少,依赖政府补贴的行业将面临挑战,经济将不得不自力更生。未来,人们将更加珍惜现有工作,企业将精简规模,经济可能出现收缩。特朗普或哈里斯当选都将对经济产生影响,但就业将是人们需要关注的关键因素。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the latest jobs report show a major hiring slowdown?

Factors include a Boeing labor strike, hurricanes affecting labor, and a trend of fewer jobs added over time.

How did the Trump campaign interpret the weaker-than-expected jobs report?

They called it an economic catastrophe.

What did the Biden-Harris administration say about the economy despite the jobs report?

They maintained that the economy remains strong.

Why did the White House attribute the job slowdown to hurricanes and a strike?

Hurricanes Helene and Milton impacted labor data collection, and the Boeing strike affected manufacturing jobs.

What trend did the jobs report highlight in manufacturing jobs?

Manufacturing jobs have been declining over the past three months.

How did the Federal Reserve view the jobs report?

They saw it as a sign of labor being squeezed, with companies limiting hiring rather than laying off en masse.

Why did the markets react positively to the jobs report despite the slowdown?

Markets anticipated a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which would mean cheaper money.

What concerns did analysts have about the reliability of the jobs report data?

There were significant revisions in the last six reports, raising questions about data accuracy.

How did inflation impact earnings and consumer behavior according to the report?

Earnings rose 4%, but consumers bought less and paid more, boosting company revenues.

What did the Federal Reserve identify as the main source of sticky inflation?

Housing costs were the primary driver of inflation that remained above the Fed's target rate.

Chapters
The discussion focuses on the factors contributing to the weaker-than-expected jobs report, including labor strikes, hurricanes, and manufacturing job losses.
  • Labor strikes, particularly by Boeing workers, and hurricanes significantly impacted job growth.
  • Manufacturing lost 46,000 jobs in October, with 44,000 attributed to the Boeing strike.
  • The White House blames hurricanes and the Boeing strike for the job losses, but the trend of manufacturing job losses over three months is concerning.

Shownotes Transcript

America got its last economic snapshot before Election Day. The latest jobs report shows a major hiring slowdown, raising questions for voters as they head to the ballot box in the next few days.

Fox Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks to FBN’s White House correspondent Edward Lawrence about what could be behind the weaker-than-expected report and how the 2024 campaigns will interpret this to voters in the last moments of the race.

PHOTO CREDIT: AP

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