cover of episode S4 Ep57: Keystone State of the Race (with Holly Otterbein)

S4 Ep57: Keystone State of the Race (with Holly Otterbein)

2024/10/26
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The Focus Group Podcast

Key Insights

Why is Pennsylvania considered crucial in the 2024 election?

Pennsylvania is seen as the most likely state to decide the election due to its recent shift to the right and its tight race dynamics.

Why has automatic voter registration (AVR) in Pennsylvania favored Republicans?

AVR has led to a decrease in the Democratic registration advantage, partly due to a lag in party switchers and an increase in independent voters.

Why are Trump-to-Biden voters in Pennsylvania leaning towards Kamala Harris in 2024?

Voters are concerned about the economy but remain anti-Trump, viewing Harris as the lesser of two evils despite mixed feelings about her.

Why are some Pennsylvania Democrats concerned about the Harris campaign's ground game?

There are complaints about resource allocation, reaching voters of color, and issues with surrogates, particularly in Philadelphia.

Why do some voters in Pennsylvania dislike Bob Casey despite his long political career?

Voters feel unimpressed with his record and see him as benefiting from his father's legacy without significant personal achievements.

Why is Dave McCormick struggling to gain support in Pennsylvania despite being a perceived normie candidate?

McCormick is seen as too extreme and tied to Trump, which contrasts with Pennsylvania's preference for moderate candidates.

Chapters

The episode introduces Pennsylvania as the pivotal state in the 2024 election, discussing its political landscape and the significance of the state in deciding the election outcome.
  • Pennsylvania is considered the most crucial state in the 2024 election.
  • The state has seen a shift to the right in recent years.
  • Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is in a close race, highlighting the state's swing state status.

Shownotes Transcript

There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race.

Show Notes: Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades)

By Holly Otterbein:  Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs) ‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing) Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania)