S4 Ep55: Great Lakes, "Meh" Candidates (with Craig Gilbert and Craig Mauger)
2024/10/12
The Focus Group Podcast
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Craig Gilbert
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Craig Mauger
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Sarah Longwell
Craig Gilbert: 威斯康星州的民调结果一直难以预测，这与选民群体的快速变化有关。卡马拉·哈里斯参选后，民主党选民的热情有所提升。尽管威斯康星州的选民构成向共和党倾斜，但共和党在特朗普时代的表现却不如预期。威斯康星州的政治局势依然胶着，难以预测未来的走向。Tammy Baldwin长期在华盛顿任职可能会成为其竞选的劣势，但她在威斯康星州农村地区的竞选表现出乎意料地好。共和党参议员候选人Eric Hovde被认为是"空降兵"，缺乏地方联系，这不利于其竞选。威斯康星州总统选举结果难以预测，选情胶着。
Sarah Longwell: 对威斯康星州和密歇根州的选民进行了焦点小组访谈，分析了他们对总统和参议员候选人的看法。
Craig Mauger: 密歇根州总统选举竞争激烈，结果可能取决于几千张选票。自2016年以来，密歇根州共和党内部出现分裂，一些温和派共和党人转而支持民主党。密歇根州共和党能否在高投票率的选举中获胜，将是本次选举的关键。密歇根州总统候选人竞选活动主要围绕汽车产业，特别是电动汽车的未来发展展开。共和党参议员候选人Mike Rogers知名度不高，这不利于其竞选。许多选民的投票选择更多地受到对总统候选人的态度影响，而非对地方候选人的了解。Mike Rogers的胜算取决于特朗普能否为他带来选票，因为他目前似乎无法吸引那些不支持特朗普的选民。密歇根州共和党寄希望于特朗普能够动员那些以往不投票的低投票率选民。密歇根州州长Gretchen Whitmer在2022年赢得大选，这表明她在该州拥有广泛的支持率。Gretchen Whitmer缺乏外交政策经验，这可能会成为她未来竞选总统的障碍。
Deep Dive
Wisconsin voters are struggling with their choices for the upcoming election. Many express dislike for both candidates, with some Republican voters hesitant about Trump and others reluctant to vote for the Democratic candidate. The pool of undecided voters consists mainly of moderate Republicans and independents.
- Wisconsin pollsters face challenges due to shifting political coalitions.
- The enthusiasm gap between Republican and Democratic voters has decreased since Kamala Harris became the nominee.
- Undecided voters in Wisconsin are mostly moderate Republicans and independents who dislike both candidates.
- Wisconsin has been a swing state since 2016, with close elections decided by small margins.
- Democratic gains in suburban areas have offset Republican gains in rural Wisconsin.
Shownotes Transcript