cover of episode Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices!

Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices!

2024/6/21
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Ezra Klein
一位深受欢迎的美国记者、政治分析师和《纽约时报》专栏作家,通过其《The Ezra Klein Show》podcast 探讨各种社会和政治问题。
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Matt Yglesias
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Ezra Klein:特朗普利用通货膨胀作为竞选口号,但他的政策实际上会大幅提高物价,这与美国民众对高物价的愤怒情绪相悖。他的政策包括对进口商品征收10%的关税,对中国商品征收60%的关税,大规模驱逐出境以及任命一个更听命于他的美联储主席。这些政策都将导致物价上涨。 Matt Yglesias:特朗普的普遍基准关税政策将导致消费者物价上涨,因为关税会增加美国制造商的生产成本,并导致国际贸易报复。此外,关税还会提高美国制造商品的价格,因为美国生产商会利用关税提高价格。经济学家估计,特朗普的关税政策将导致通货膨胀率上升2%-3%。特朗普认为他的关税政策不会导致物价上涨,因为外国生产商会承担成本,但这不太可能。特朗普的政策,例如对化肥的关税,将导致食品价格上涨。大规模驱逐出境将导致建筑业和家政服务业的劳动力短缺,从而推高物价。大规模驱逐出境将加剧通货膨胀和经济衰退。大规模驱逐出境在经济上是不切实际的,合法化大部分无证移民更实际。特朗普的政策可能导致滞胀,即高通胀和低增长的混合。特朗普计划削减合法移民,这将进一步减少劳动力,降低经济产出。特朗普的关税政策主要针对商品,而服务业不受影响,但大规模驱逐出境将影响服务业价格。移民限制主义者认为,驱逐出境将提高美国工人的工资,但这不太可能。大规模驱逐出境将导致所有工人的工资上涨,但劳动力必须来自某个地方。美国就业人数增加,但并非所有新增就业都是美国本土居民创造的。如果特朗普更换美联储主席,并实施其他通胀政策,将会导致通货膨胀。如果特朗普降低利率,增加赤字并减少劳动力,将导致美元贬值和通货膨胀。如果特朗普实施他提出的所有政策,将对美国家庭的财务状况造成灾难性后果。特朗普的政策将提高通货膨胀率,并损害美联储的信誉。特朗普的经济理论已经过时,不适用于当前的经济问题。特朗普的关税政策是愚蠢的,将提高所有商品的价格。 Ezra Klein:特朗普的政策与他的政治言论相矛盾,他指责拜登造成高物价,但他的政策却会导致物价上涨。

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Donald Trump has made inflation a central part of his campaign message. At his rallies, he rails against “the Biden inflation tax” and “crooked Joe’s inflation nightmare,” and promises that in a second Trump term, “inflation will be in full retreat.”

But if you look at Trump’s actual policies, that wouldn’t be the case at all. Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him. It’s almost unimaginable to me that you would run on this agenda at a time when Americans are so mad about high prices. But I don’t think people really know that’s what Trump is vowing to do.

So to drill into the weeds of Trump’s plans, I decided to call up an old friend. Matt Yglesias is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the author of the Slow Boring) newsletter, where he’s been writing a lot about Trump’s proposals. We also used to host a policy podcast together, “The Weeds.”

In this conversation, we discuss what would happen to the economy, especially in terms of inflation, if Trump actually did what he says he wants to do; what we can learn from how Trump managed the economy in his first term; and why more people aren’t sounding the alarm.

Mentioned:

Trump’s new economic plan is terrible)” by Matthew Yglesias

Never mind: Wall Street titans shake off qualms and embrace Trump)” by Sam Sutton

How Far Trump Would Go)” by Eric Cortellessa

Book Recommendations:

Take Back the Game) by Linda Flanagan

1177 B.C.) by Eric H. Cline

The Rise of the G.I. Army, 1940-1941) by Paul Dickson

Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected].

You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast). Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs).

This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Mixing by Isaac Jones, with Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero, Adam Posen and Michael Strain.