Nike’s streak as the undisputed leader in the activewear category spans generations, but the brand is facing its most significant hurdles in decades. However, recent shifts in leadership, oversupply issues and a botched direct-to-consumer strategy have chipped away at its once-untouchable brand image. As challengers like Hoka and On gain ground, and archrival Adidas surges, Nike faces mounting pressure to innovate and reconnect with consumers.

“Nike remains a behemoth, … but all is not well,” says Miller. “The brand is on course for its worst financial performance in over a quarter of a century, and unfortunately for Nike, trouble is happening everywhere, all over the brand.”

This week on The Debrief, BoF executive editor Brian Baskin and senior correspondent Sheena Butler-Young sit down with sports correspondent Daniel-Yaw Miller to explore how Nike fell off track and the strategic moves it’s making to reclaim its market dominance.

Key insights

Nike’s reliance on retro sneaker lines like Air Force 1 and Dunks is driving consumer fatigue, as these once-coveted styles now languish on shelves. “At one point not so long ago, they were like gold dust,” says Miller. “But now they’re sitting on shelves for months and sometimes being discounted.” This overabundance is diluting the brand’s appeal and paving the way for smaller, more agile competitors to capture the spotlight.

Despite substantial investment in R&D, Nike’s innovation efforts have faltered, allowing rivals to define the next wave of sneaker trends, like performance sport styles and technology-driven designs. “Nike didn’t really have any new products to turn to and point consumers towards,” says Miller. Brands like On and Hoka have gained traction with innovations such as On’s CloudTec Technology and Hoka’s MetaRocker running silhouette.

The “Winning Isn’t For Everyone” campaign marks a return to Nike’s swaggering marketing playbook of the 90s and 2000s, and a potential early sign of the brand’s resurgence. “It wasn’t just one simple video; it was meant to communicate a new brand ethos,” Miller explains. “This Nike campaign needed to be divisive. Consumers are looking for brands that have a point of view, and that’s what Nike is trying to bring back.”

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The Debrief

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How Nike Ran Off Course