Trump, Again
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Thank you very much. well. This is a movement like everybody he's ever .

seen before from york times. I'm mica borrow. This is the daily want .

to the american people for the external. Horning elected your forty seventh president, and you are forty five president.

The early hours of wednesday morning, Donald trump was elected president of the united states for a second time.

This will truly be the golden age of america. That's what we have to.

Shortly before that call was made, I spoke with three of my colleagues, chief political analyst need conn, national political correspondent lisa ir and the host of the run up dca, a state home, and about how trump did IT. It's wednesday, november six. So instead, 那 lisa， thank you for being here at one twenty five A M.

Thank you were .

having deeply yang for .

IT is but at this moment, IT is looking very likely that Donald trump will be the winner of this election and that he will return to the White house. So I just wanted take a moment and have you all reflect on the significance of that reality in the trump is now exceedingly likely to have a second term in the way us live.

Well, this is a huge accomplishment. I mean, i've been thinking about how and away trump s his own historic first, you know we talk a lot about barrier breaking candidates and of ice president Harris would have been the first female president. Trump of course will be the first convicted felon and twice and peach president, he'll be the first president in more than one hundred twenty years to come back after losing a reelection bid.

So he is breaking boundaries in his way. And of course, then there's all the things that he promised during the course of his campaign, which really, as we've talked about before on this round, seem to flow, if not directly, at some core principles of the country's founding system of democracy. So IT does feel like we're headed to a pretty extraordinary and unprecedented second term for trump and for the nation.

What's that your action?

I think that in twenty sixteen you could have told yourself that amErica didn't know what IT was selecting. And I think now you can right like it's not just his literal return. IT is the fact that he has been so explicit in the run up to that return the the convictions, the the sexual al liability like you can go on and on and on, but there's not a lack of evidence on who downal trump is and what he is promising.

And so I think that dad is the thing that largely sits with me. And I think on the other side, the democratic refusal to see the unpopularity of joe biden, the dismissal of anyone who talked about a primary, the demanding a party loyalty, all of that looks ridiculous. And the national picture that shows a consistent desire for change, I think, has to be read as, first and foremost, a rejection of the current administration.

And there was a lot of science that pointed to that for a long time. And so in the same way, I think there is an active embrace of Donald trump. You can ignore. I think you also have to point out that the strategy that democrats took, the self belief that they had, that they were certain of that has put them in the situation.

We're going to a return to that for sure. Instead in a little bit the soul searching within the democratic ty, all the decision making around biden. But first, nate, your quick reaction before we gain to the question of how we actually got here tonight.

Well, stead took what might have been the gist of mine. I'll offer IT a slightly ziggy, wear others ziggy, and reflect on the potentially extraordinary consequences of a second trump term on almost every major issue that there has been consensus on in the united states sense, world war two, whether it's foreign policy or immigration or trade norms for constitutional government. Now a majority or near majority of americans will elect someone who potentially, in the most radical ways, will try and overturn that consensus.

Just how much of a Victory does this appear to be for trump? How close was this? By most measures.

still gonna a fairly close election. But IT should be noted. He is favoured to win the pipeline boat, which is extraordinary, given that he lost the last two times that no republican has wanted in twenty years.

But he may only want IT by a point or two. I didn't want IT by four and a half, and we didn't consider that to be a landside. He's probably going to sweep all the swing states, but that would put him just over three hundred elector. It's not three hundred and seventy like obama. So you can call IT a landslide, but it's a clear Victory.

OK, I want to talk about how trump pulled this off. And then I want to stick with you because you are on the show yesterday outlining various scenarios for the outcome of this race. And the one that appears to have played out is what you identified as increment from from the trump realignment scenario, a pretty significant set of gains that extend and you could argue, complete this populist revolution that he began back in twenty sixteen.

When I look at the map on the times home page that shows the differences between twenty, twenty and tonight, IT actually seems in a way to be bigger than that. What prompted? Because that map shows between those two elections, the country moved right IT would seem across the board.

And on top of that, that map shows pretty nothing broke commonly. Harris way. How did that happen based on what we know so .

far from the data on a spectrum between a close twenty, twenty repeat in a real limit would put IT somewhere in the middle? Yes, this is a decisive Victory, and it's not worthy that IT was very broad. There are very few parts of the country where Harris ran as well as joe biden.

There are very few demographic groups where haris ran as well as joe biden. There were places that retracing liberal, that song conservative, places to span places, White working class, you every kind of county swang towards dial d trump. That says a lot about the deep seated revulsion that was being expressed here at the status.

q. This is very different to me in two thousand sixteen, or there was this narrow truck breakthrough and White college graduates that let him m get over the top in the critical of midwestern battle ground states by a hair. This is a much more comfortable and broadly based Victory, and I do think that counts as the culmination of the sort of broader trump error of elections.

You know, he started in two thousand sixteen with the scenario breakthrough, and now he is extended what had been a narrow coalition to something that is, you know, hardly on. We're still again talking about a relatively modest Victory, but one that is still fundamentally much more broadly based than at once was. And again, we've now changed what american politics is are about in some way. We have a new political division in the country, and there are a lot of different people in demography groups that previously did not support Donald trump, who appear to be receptive tive to different elements of that message.

Can you explain what mean you say we're never going back?

I think there's definitely a political real line mate. For a long time. We had this sort of obama era politics where demographics would be destiny and a more diversified nation would definitely go towards democrats.

And that was the belief. And we're seeing granted is still early that that is not what's necessarily gonna en IT. Might something very different appears to be happening. And so we're entering I sort of see IT as ending one political era in terms of the politics and entering another one.

But I think there's like a larger, slightly more philosopher question as well, which is there was a sense that trump was an evora in some way that he was a deviation from american politics in his term and his win was a deviation. And all these things he did be a, you know, stoking january six or refusing to accept the results of the twenty twenty election or even just how we talked about people. Those things are not an average our politics, those things are our politics now. And that's where I think the country is in that I think is what a lot of people is. Probably tomorrow morning.

you're going to have to confront you just mentioned how much success on trip had with a variety of voting blocks that, as lisa you just pointed out, democrat had long believed we're going to remain loyal to them.

And but why? But why, why? Why did they believe that like that evident has been cleared about the drop off for a long time, right? Like we've had twenty, we've had twenty sixteen, we've had twenty, twenty.

Like we've actually had a lot of evidence to say that the demographic destiny undertone is one that is a fault. E premise. The fact that they are holding on to the obama air, in my opinion, is a racist assumption. I don't mean I like in a capital r way, but I mean, in race based to some, I mean that I think is, I would say, lower case race. I would say that there is an assumption that this IT was a failure of imagination, that IT couldn't be true.

I yeah, I hear you. But I think there is a sense of like, yes, we saw this done becoming. We saw that more people are identifying as republicans. And like all these polls, we saw that democrats had moved towards the more conservative .

position on issues .

like immigration. Saw, we saw representation isn't enough, but at the .

same time having a black yeah.

people don't vote just on representation.

There is another half of this, which is that democrats law sight of why they were winning villages like this in the first place. Thank you.

Which which is, well, one reason that .

I think is was mentioning is the economy and helping working people against the establishment and corporations. That was the democrats who used to be the party that was advocating change, that was against the establishment that could channel this emotions of a dietetic Young person, Donald trump. S is that candidate. And so they should. Lin, no baby surprised that they have lost this.

I just want to make sure understand what I think you're all hinting at, which is that downtown mp of the republican party have completed the journey in which they are the party of disruption. They are the party that assault the establishment. They are the party that says, not just to the White working class, but to the working class in a number of different demographic groups, including black and latino working class americans, that we are your refuge from an unfair, broken system.

And I was only d that their ability to do that was made easier by a democratic party who ceded the mental on that front. absolutely. The biggest character in this race to me was not on the ballot. IT was joe biden, in my opinion, like joe biden, refusal to do what he is implied he would do in twenty twenty and transition to a different type of generation, allow democrat broader conversation about change, allow democrats to be freed from this dad is is not what happened. I think that would be easier for me to say that Donald mp.

Completed this mass realignment among the working class if we had in universe where the democrats had a primary, where the democrats nominated a candidate that was based around some set of ideas and IT was not tied to this administration. So clearly and the satisfied, but since that is not what happened, I think IT has made the republican ability to be the agents of change so much easier that I find IT the biggest thing that has happened in this race, and I think speaks. So what we're saying about what happened over the last three months, the place that they were in before the candidates tes switch happened made is such that you could run a perfect race or whatever and and you are still playing on ground that brings you to fifty, fifty.

Because the biggest thing, in my opinion, that happened was they tied themselves to an unpopular administration. And with IT the that is, well, that did not representation. There was a lot of evidence .

that that was a bad idea. I want to turn to what happened with women into night's election. IT seemed, despite everything we're talking about here, like the Harris campaign was relying on women to save the democratic coalition.

And the view was suburban women, even moderate republican women, post the overturning of roady weight and given all dolled m's character flaws, was going to put kala haris over the edge, despite the fact that perhaps you didn't speak to and and a body change in the way that so many other americans wanted. Did those women not show up, or did they show up? But I didn't matter because of all the other voters who showed up for truth.

So it's a little hard to say at this point like men and women live together in all Price IT turns out. So it's a little hard to separate that out. I do think we can say something about the power of abortion rights.

You know, since dbs in twenty twenty two, that had been such a motivator for democrats. And I think now maybe even because of all those state referendums, you had A A sense that voters could support both abortion rights and former president trump. And that was different than what we had seen in the twenty twenty two in terms. So I wonder if the power of that issue was a little diminished in resting.

I also only add like and this is an dotal, of course, but a lot of folks we met in our travels understood download trump h is having a different .

position on abortion .

than the rest of in the last year and half. He's created distance from the most eventual wing of republicans. He is upset some of them. And I think we have to acknowledge, I think some .

of that worked. In other words, people did not buy the idea that he was a true believer in the opposition to abortion.

I think i'm just saying, like the idea that the portion had to be placed top of your list because republicans represented a existential threat to that, right? I have had people articulate to me how that does not apply to to people have mentioned consistently that downal trauma is different than other republicans on abortion right now. I would also say that I think there is some failure of imagination on behalf of voters about down antro. Like I think that that that that you can the focus and have that feeling and and not be true, right? Like he still wrapped up in the conservative vehicle system that is anti a bori.

Just think we have to acknowledge, since we're talking about gender, that in two of the last three presidential races, a woman running against donal trump lost. This race meant a lot as Hillary climbs camie n against trump meant a lot.

Two women, yeah. And I wonder what happens s now, right? What we saw in twenty sixteen was obviously the women's march and went, got out with their hats, and the saw this flashing the me too movement that prompted this really public and private reckoning around gender, gender equity.

And then you saw all these women run and succeed, you know, in twenty twenty and record breaking numbers of women elected to congress. Nineteen, you at six women and unprecedented and number run for the presents. Y so much so that by and you promise to pick a women, selected haris and put her in his vice president.

And now after all of that, this movement that seemed like IT was building towards the White house, in fact, IT IT wasn't. And I just don't think anyone's going to be out marching with their little pink cats this time around. I think the reaction will be something different, but I don't know, I don't know what I will be.

I agree, this is one of the best questions about what happens next is what is the this moral, emotional response from what eight years ago was called the resistance. But broadly speaking, from liberals and college graduates, the sort of groups that have power, democratic successes and mid terms and special elections, I personally don't see how that could be the same. Having him win again, and like this is going to hit very differently.

And there is also a sort of natural exhaustion, I think, to this sort of response to trump over time, that I felt, I personally thought I observed in this campaign. IT was reflected in the data as well in terms of lower voter registration and so on. I don't know what will be the reaction, emotional way for the democratic activist ranking file.

We are going take a break break, and we gan try to state on schedule, need to get back to the needle, so will go back.

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I think we need a wrestle with some of the realities of dol trumps weaknesses. And nate whensoever, we talk to you in the past. You spoke of whether IT was trust role in january six, his convictions in the hush money scheme, not to mention the tax fraud d. His increasingly racist race, speeding retorted, which we really saw the end of this campaign at some of his ralles as his single biggest vulnerabilities. And I wanna understand in your mind if a Victory here means that voters were looking past those things or if, as in twenty sixteen, but I see the facts on the ground are different, we need to see this as part of the appeal of what voters liked about down trip this time around.

I think that voters have never liked Donald m, but I have to say he's a lot more popular today than he wasn't twenty and sixteen and twenty and sixteen now is unfavorable rating was like brother. His favorable ratings was like thirty percent, thirty five percent. Now it's a close to fifty percent.

A lot of people who didn't like him eight years ago, they've come around to him. That is partly because I think he ran a much more discipline campaign than he did eight years. I think it's partly because he's become Normalized for lack of a Better world.

He's something we're all accustomed to and he has positive attributes as well, whether it's is perceived economic stewardship or that people think he's funny and so on and that he's not politically correct in those combination of things can lead someone to come around to him and look past his liabilities. That said, I I still don't think that on net, trump is a strong candidate. I think that the baLance of the strength, weaknesses at best cancel out and may well be on network than a different republican candidate does not to say they would have one in the same way. But I do think that republicans have probably left votes on the table by having Donald trump s is their front unter, even though someone like donal trump is the only person who could have turned the republic and party into what IT has become. And in two thousand and sixteen, I don't think you I thought I was very easy to argue that IT was as much about Hillary clinton as IT was about Donald trump and her weakness nesses outplaying his I think that in this and IT is as much about his strength outweigh ing the democratic party strength in a way that wasn't true previously.

I just want to break in to say that fox news has called the overall action for Donald truck so far. It's just fox news. I don't know that what that means for your ability to .

even stay at the table and leave isn't isn't that great content.

I know that you're time you may, you should check, you should check your phone and make sure that someone's not screaming at you to get out of here. But did you want to respond to what they were saying?

Think this pretty one.

Yeah.

yeah. And just to explain the math of this because we didn't do that, the first segment trump has won the southern swing states, which my come here has had in the northern blue wall states, michigan, pennsylvania, was consent and is now clear she's not going to be winning all three .

of those states. That seems like more likely. So we having called the yet. So maybe that's .

what i'm about to go to. So thank you for being here. You have to go.

Thank you. We are onna. Keep you in our thoughts. Literally need is leaving .

you. I think what you are restless with that with that question that you s need, that he very well answered, was whether america, what they were voting for, they voting for economic policies, where they voting for sort of strong man government. Probably some mix of all of the above, because we know a couple of conflicting pieces of information. We know that some trump supporters sort struck their shoulders at some of the more controversial policies is put out there, like supporting millions of undocumented immigrants. But we also know that there's polling that shows the country is increasingly open to strong man leadership like that has shifted right in the .

thing you haven't mentioned. And a curse. How you think about IT when IT comes to what americans may or may not have processed is what a second trump term is likely to mean for democratic norms. At least you started to mention this at the very top of our conversation. But let just review a couple of the things that Donald trump has said in his campaign and that those around him have said about what he will do, expanding presidential power by bringing independent agencies like the fed directly under the thun of the president, using the department of justice to prosecute his enemies, and ensuring that no one in the executive branch will stand in his way, that there will be no one there to object. Voters in giving trump a second term, you can argue, have endorsed a fundamentally different vision of the presidency and democracy itself.

Yeah, you can argue that I mean, I think there's a i'm like wrestling here because I think this is also a simple story here too. Like inflation is high, the administration is unpopular and without the world the develop world, we've been seeing income of government's lose because of basically those two reasons. There's a complicated story about like trump in his policies and what he is promise. But there's also a simple one as the folks don't like the country as IT is now and we're willing to roll the dice on what I could be underwater. Now I think to your born is an important one though, because at this table last week, we talked about macy democracy and how democrats don't offer an alternative vision about improving IT. And I think that's a really important thing to really talk about here is that when we lay out the ways that Donald trump has douteless promised a reshaped federal government that is in line with his, you know, praise of authoritarians across the world, I think we should also say that, like the response to that has just been to say that is wrong and not to say that there are fundamental concerns people have about the way government is working right and what democrat could do yeah I mean.

point you've made several times is if the strong man, if the man promising something that looks like authority is the agent of change, voters are more interested in the change that he represents than they are in the thereto al paris to democracy. And the democrats have merely focused on the threat to democracy while missing the element of change.

They act as if there is this mutual democracy agreement that we've all come to and that that is a bad rock belief of all americans. When I don't think that's true, I think there is someone of a shared agreement about that. But I think through out our history, we've seen that take turns.

And I just feel as if whether IT is democracy, whether is lecturing americans that saying inflations actually not that bad, that there has been a tone coming from democrats to tell people the problems that they had are not legitimate. And I think that is at the core of their problems in this race. It's hard for me not to go back to the fact that when these issues were most clear and they had a chance to speak to those concerns, they decided not to and they decided to double down on this administration, to double down on the. And I feel like you cannot tell the country that Donald trump is an existent al threat and run in eighty one year old for four more years.

I have to ask you this was dead and lisa, because I think listeners are going to want to know IT and we might just ask IT now even in these early hours, if joe boyden had gotten ed out of the way a lot earlier, do you think that makes a difference? Yes.

no, it's so interesting. You I keep thinking about clinton. And one of the reasons that I think clinton lost was that there was no real primary process in that races. You remember.

right? He, yes.

he blocked everybody out. SHE had the donors Sanders ran. He also performed, showing that there is an interest that SHE it's not about who's winning the presents is about who meets the moment and the primary test who meets the moment.

So basically there is no primary. Then there is one with Sanders. He over performed to IT. He was pretty annoyed and SHE lost and then knew come into this race where, as you point out, by and hung on Harris, basically the party made a rapid switch, annointed her.

effectively made.

But at that point, IT wasn't really possible right at that point, the process. So, you know, I think that in both those cases, the party failed to take the temperature of the country through a primary process. So they were left with a candidate that may have not been the best fit for the moment, obviously not the best fit for moment since they lost.

And I think the only time they really reset was after the candidate switch, where IT fell on hama. Haris as an individual flip flapper, rather than the party actually changing its medium position. Where that would have happened was if they had the democratic primary, right, the whole party would have recollection ated. Okay.

final question because you both need to go. We now have a call on one thing tonight, which is the united states senate IT will be in the hands of republic against will flip control. We don't have a call the house, but our colleagues and form us that there's a reasonably good chance that, that will fall into the hands of republicans. We don't know, takes a while on the west to count a lot of those races. There is now a strong possibility of unified republican control of the entire government under a trump h LED White house.

So this is what I was gonna uh, a little bit at one point earlier when you were asking about um what people voted for, didn't vote for. Did they vote for this idea of undoing democratic norms and all kind of stuff? In some ways, of course, that matters always matters what people believe they were voting for. But IT also kind of me at this point may not matter that much. Donald trump is coming into his second presents y believing that he has and there are fewer republicans to oppose him then when he came in in sixteen, so weather or night voters endorse all these plans or didn't .

endorse these.

they are gonna them. And he believes and his team believes, that he has a Mandate to push them through. The last .

word said.

I mean.

this could represent pretty extraordinary scale change in the next four years.

absolutely. I mean, the fear of project 2 twenty five as what a unified republican government could do did not scare enough people to make a difference in the race， yes, and didn't make a big difference in the race. So that only is danny trump into the White house with a Mandate from public that he would have already taken.

Either way, I think the republicans now know. That don trump has outperformed their candidates and has reach people they cannot reach otherwise. And so I think we have seen so much difference to download trump from republicans already, but that probably will be even more so for the future.

And so that if you are asking yourself design a tram return to the White house under the conditions to reshape the country in his image and do so virtual unchecked, that also is a possibility. yes. And so that's why I talk about failure. Imagination among public is because I don't know. We know where that goes. And so all i'm saying is I think that we can see this election as in a dorsey of trumps return, but I don't think we should see IT as a full endorsement, the love of all of what he is promised, but at least a point that doesn't really matter, right? Because he won and because congress might look more trump y than last time, I don't think we have a full grasp of just how big just how big that reshaping can be.

Well, you two, we started with three. We're down to two. I appreciated.

This is a historic night. I'm grateful for your time. Good luck with the rest of the journalism the night .

night after create tonight.

thanks. Thank you. Thank you. So thank you a stead and and thank you.

On wednesday morning, vice president kala Harris return to her official residents without addressing supporters who had gathered at her water Howard university for her election part. In brief reMarks to the crowd, an official from Harris campaign said that he would return to the campus later today for what's widely expected to be a concession speech. Or do I.

back after the .

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Here's what else you need to another day. In tuesday's elections, republicans one control of the senate by picking up at least two democratic seats. The first was in ohio, where democratic sector, or shared Brown, was defeated by his republican opponent, bernie marino.

The second was in west Virginia, where democrats lost the seed, opened up by the retirement of democratic senator joe. That seat was won by the state's republic and governor, jim justice. As a result of those two ones, the democrats fifty one to forty nine senate majority has now been reversed.

Today's episode was produced by robs eco, Diana well, Jessica chang and clare tennis scatter IT was edited by page coward and Rachel question, contains original music by marine lizza, pat mccusker and dan pal, and was engineered by Chris wood analysis moxy artha music is beijing run berg and ben landmark of wondering.

That's IT for the daily i'm Michael morrow see tomorrow.