The United States of Pennsylvania

2024/10/25

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Campbell Robertson

Sabrina Tavernisi

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Sabrina Tavernisi：本届选举中，宾夕法尼亚州是所有可能的胜利之路的中心，两党都在该州投入巨资。 Campbell Robertson：宾夕法尼亚州拥有19张选举人票，是所有摇摆州中最多的。长期以来，它一直是民主党的票仓，但2016年倒向了特朗普。这种变化反映了美国政党政治的转变：没有大学文凭的选民越来越倾向于支持特朗普共和党，而郊区共和党人则开始离开共和党或投票给民主党候选人。教育程度成为预测投票倾向的重要指标。2020年，拜登险胜宾夕法尼亚州，这部分归功于他在一些非大学学历的工薪阶层选民中的优势，以及郊区专业人士的大量支持。哈里斯竞选策略的核心是提高城市和郊区的投票率，并控制农村地区的失利幅度。特朗普则全力争取宾夕法尼亚州的工薪阶层选民，但这一群体的人口比例正在下降，因为农村地区人口老龄化严重，年轻人外流，而宾夕法尼亚州东南部郊区正在扩张，吸引了大量受过高等教育的专业人士。 Todd Adair：作为兰开斯特郡的长期居民，他见证了家乡的变化，农田被住宅区取代，新来的人让他感觉不再像以前那样紧密联系，但他认为新来的人并没有改变兰开斯特郡的基本生活方式和政治倾向，他相信兰开斯特郡仍然是一个以共和党为主导，拥有良好社区精神的地区。 Deb Adair：Todd的妻子，对家乡的变化感到担忧，特别是对新来的人可能带来的文化影响，她担心新一代人对工作的态度和养育子女的方式与他们不同，这可能会改变当地的文化价值观。 Sharon Nelson和Suki Starkey：兰开斯特郡退休社区的居民，她们组成了一个支持小组，最初在当地感到孤立，因为她们周围几乎都是特朗普的支持者，她们通过微妙的方式找到了彼此，并开始参与政治活动，公开表达自己的政治立场。 Brian Keith：一位共和党人，他认为兰开斯特郡正在发生变化，成本和文化都在发生变化，这让他考虑搬到其他地方。 Campbell Robertson: 宾夕法尼亚州的政治版图正在发生转变，这不仅对本次选举至关重要，也对未来的选举至关重要。这种转变体现在农村工薪阶层选民人数的减少和受过高等教育的专业人士人数的增加。在兰开斯特郡，这种转变尤为明显，长期居民和新来者之间的文化冲突也日益突出。哈里斯竞选团队已经注意到这种人口结构的变化，并在兰开斯特郡设立了办公室，积极开展竞选活动。而特朗普则需要扩大他的支持基础，以保持宾夕法尼亚州对共和党有利。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Pennsylvania considered the most important state in the 2024 election?

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, making it crucial for both candidates' paths to victory.

Why did Pennsylvania shift from reliably Democratic to competitive in recent elections?

The decline of union jobs and the appeal of Trump's message about American decline resonated with non-college-educated voters.

How has education level become a significant factor in voting patterns in Pennsylvania?

Non-college-educated voters lean Republican, while college-educated professionals tend to vote Democrat.

What is Kamala Harris's campaign strategy in Pennsylvania?

Drive up turnout in cities and suburbs, focusing on college-educated voters, while minimizing losses in rural areas.

Why is the non-college-educated voter base shrinking in Pennsylvania?

Rural areas are aging, and younger generations are moving to cities for better opportunities, leading to a decline in this demographic.

How are demographic changes affecting Pennsylvania's political landscape?

Suburban areas are growing with college-educated professionals, shifting the balance towards Democrats.

What is Donald Trump's strategy to maintain Pennsylvania's support?

Expand his base by appealing to non-college-educated voters in other demographic groups, such as Latinos and young black men.

How are newcomers changing Lancaster County's political dynamics?

Newcomers, particularly college-educated retirees, are shifting the political landscape towards Democrats.

What challenges do Democratic newcomers face in traditionally Republican areas like Lancaster County?

They often feel isolated and must navigate subtle cues to find like-minded individuals without overt political displays.

How does the changing demographic in Lancaster County reflect broader trends in Pennsylvania?

Lancaster County mirrors statewide trends where rural, non-college-educated voters decline, and suburban, college-educated voters increase.

Chapters

Pennsylvania's significance in the election is due to its 19 electoral votes and its status as a swing state. The state's political landscape has shifted from being reliably Democratic to competitive, influenced by the 2016 election and the growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated voters.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state.
The state has historically been close in presidential elections.
The 2016 election saw a significant shift with Trump winning the state, breaking a trend of Democratic reliability.

Shownotes Transcript

Throughout this election, one state has been at the center of every imaginable path to victory: Pennsylvania. Both candidates have campaigned there relentlessly, and both parties have spent more money there than in any other state.

Campbell Robertson, who has been reporting from Pennsylvania, discusses the shift that is reshaping the map in Pennsylvania.

Guest: Campbell Robertson), a reporter for the National desk at The New York Times.

Background reading:

Inside the battle for America’s most consequential battleground state).
Small-town Pennsylvania is changing), and Democrats see opportunity.

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily). Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts) or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

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