The Trump Campaign’s Big Gamble
2024/10/28
The Daily
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Jessica Chung
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Jonathan Swan
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Rachel Abrams
Rachel Abrams：分析了特朗普竞选活动与拜登竞选活动在选民动员策略上的差异，指出在关键摇摆州，地面战可能决定胜负。特朗普竞选活动资金和人力资源相对较少，更多依赖志愿者，其策略与传统竞选活动有所不同。
Jessica Chung：深入报道了亚利桑那州马里科帕县共和党办公室的运作，揭示了该办公室在选民动员工作之外，大量精力投入到所谓的“选举完整性”工作中。许多志愿者相信2020年大选存在舞弊，这成为他们参与其中的主要动力。他们对选举结果的质疑，以及由此产生的行动，可能会影响选民投票的积极性，并分散竞选办公室的资源。
Jonathan Swan：从特朗普本人的视角分析了其竞选策略，指出特朗普更关注阻止民主党人“窃取”选举，而不是选民动员。他认为，如果选举公平公正，他将赢得所有州。但同时，他的竞选团队也开展了有针对性的活动，以争取一小部分未决定的选民。特朗普在竞选活动中，有时会根据自身直觉而非数据分析来调整策略，例如，他更重视移民问题而非经济问题。
Craig Berlind: 作为马里科帕县共和党委员会主席，Craig Berlind分享了他对2020年大选的看法，以及他如何因此而积极参与政治。他坚信2020年大选存在舞弊，并认为共和党办公室的“选举完整性”工作是赢得选举的关键。他同时呼吁共和党选民投票，并建议优先选择亲自投票，或将邮寄选票带到投票站进行确认。
Deep Dive
Why is the Trump campaign focusing on election integrity in Maricopa County?
Trump genuinely believes the 2020 election was stolen, driving efforts to scrutinize voter signatures and observe polling places.
Why are volunteers in Maricopa County spending so much time on election integrity?
They believe Trump won in 2020 and are motivated to fix what they think is a broken system.
Why does Trump emphasize immigration over the economy in his campaign?
He feels at a gut level that immigration motivates people more than any other issue, believing it was key to his 2016 win.
Why is Trump focusing on UFC and podcasts for his campaign?
His campaign data shows these platforms reach young, independent, and pessimistic male voters crucial to his strategy.
Why is the Trump campaign betting on turning out non-traditional voters?
They need to reach voters who don't usually vote, as traditional methods may not be effective enough with certain demographics.
The Trump campaign's approach in the final week of the election focuses on a smaller, volunteer-driven ground operation compared to the Harris campaign's traditional and well-funded strategy. The Trump campaign emphasizes election integrity and relies heavily on volunteers in key swing states like Maricopa County, Arizona.
- Trump campaign has less money and paid staff compared to the Harris campaign.
- Maricopa County, Arizona, is a critical battleground where efforts to get voters to the polls could be decisive.
- The Trump campaign's office in Maricopa County is heavily decorated with Trump-related memorabilia and relies on volunteers.
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