cover of episode The Race That Could Tip Control of the Senate

The Race That Could Tip Control of the Senate

2024/10/16
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Andrew Garfield
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Anna Martin
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Carl Hulse
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Sabrina Tavernisi
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Sabrina Tavernisi: 本期节目讨论了美国参议院的控制权之争，重点关注蒙大拿州的选举，该州的选举结果可能决定参议院的最终控制权归属。 Carl Hulse: 民主党目前以51-49的微弱优势控制参议院，蒙大拿州的选举结果至关重要，可能决定参议院的控制权。民主党在多个州面临艰难的选举，而蒙大拿州的选举结果将成为决定性因素。蒙大拿州的参议员约翰·泰斯特的连任竞选对民主党至关重要，他的对手是共和党候选人蒂姆·希伊。泰斯特是一位温和派民主党人，他试图在保持民主党身份的同时赢得农村选民的支持，但他面临着来自人口变化和政治极化的挑战。希伊是一位来自州外的成功商人，他强调自己为蒙大拿州创造就业机会和经济贡献。泰斯特试图将希伊描绘成蒙大拿州问题的代表，以此攻击希伊，而希伊则强调自己为蒙大拿州带来的经济效益。民调显示泰斯特的选情不容乐观，但他仍然在努力争取选民的支持。泰斯特的选情反映了民主党在大平原地区支持率下降的趋势。蒙大拿州民主党支持率下降的原因既有新居民的涌入，也有原有居民政治立场的转变。选民不再跨党派投票，这使得泰斯特的连任更加困难。尽管民调显示泰斯特落后，但民主党仍未放弃，并试图利用堕胎权利公投和希伊的负面言论来争取选民支持。虽然民主党在蒙大拿州面临挑战，但在其他州的选举中取得了进展，这使得参议院的控制权仍然存在不确定性。参议院的控制权对总统的执政至关重要，无论哪位总统当选，都将面临挑战。蒙大拿州的政治极化反映了美国政治的整体趋势，选民更倾向于按照党派路线投票，这使得温和派候选人难以胜出。 Carl Hulse: 详细分析了蒙大拿州参议员选举的背景、候选人情况、选情预测以及对美国政治格局的影响。

Deep Dive

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The episode discusses how control of the Senate could be decided by the race in Montana, featuring Senator Jon Tester and his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy.
  • Democrats currently control the Senate 51-49.
  • Montana is seen as the tipping point race that could decide Senate control.
  • Jon Tester is a moderate Democrat running for his fourth term.

Shownotes Transcript

Yesterday, The Daily explained how control of the House has come down to a few contests in two blue states. Today, we look at the race for the Senate.

Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, explains how the battle could come down to a single state: Montana.

Guest: Carl Hulse), the chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times, who has covered Washington since 1985.

Background reading: 

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