cover of episode Donald Trump’s America

Donald Trump’s America

2024/11/7
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Key Insights

Why did Donald Trump make significant gains among Latino voters in the 2024 election?

Trump's appeal to Latino voters in places like Starr County, Texas, where he won by more than 15 points, indicates a shift in voter sentiment. This could be attributed to dissatisfaction with the status quo and a desire for change, as well as Trump's ability to resonate with a broad spectrum of voters beyond his traditional base.

Why did Muslim American voters in Dearborn, Michigan, shift towards Trump in the 2024 election?

The shift among Muslim American voters in Dearborn, Michigan, where Trump won by a significant margin, suggests a protest vote against the sitting vice president and the Biden administration's policies towards Muslims. This indicates a broader dissatisfaction with the current administration's policies and a willingness to consider alternative leadership.

Why did Trump make gains in traditionally blue states like New York and New Jersey in the 2024 election?

Trump's gains in blue states like New York and New Jersey reflect a broader dissatisfaction with the status quo and the current administration. These gains suggest that Trump's message of change and dissatisfaction with the economy resonated with voters across different demographic groups and regions, not just in traditional battleground states.

Why did the Democratic Party's confidence in their electoral prospects in 2024 prove to be misplaced?

The Democratic Party's confidence was likely based on their performance in the 2022 midterms, where they defied political gravity and won key races despite unfavorable conditions. However, the 2024 election showed that voters' dissatisfaction with the current administration and the economy was a stronger force, leading to Trump's broad-based gains across various demographics and regions.

Why did Trump's loss in the 2020 election not diminish his influence within the Republican Party?

Trump's loss in 2020 did not diminish his influence because he continued to dominate the national conversation through various legal battles and his strong connection to the Republican base. This allowed him to maintain control over the party and ultimately secure the nomination for the 2024 election, demonstrating his enduring appeal and political resilience.

What is the significance of Trump's potential twelve-year legacy in American politics?

Trump's potential twelve-year legacy would be unprecedented, marking a significant realignment in American politics. His influence over the Republican Party and his ability to redefine the party's identity, from a traditional conservative party to an anti-establishment, nationalist party, could leave a lasting impact on the country's political landscape and its place in the world.

Chapters

Nate Cohn discusses the broad gains made by Trump across various demographics and regions, suggesting that his victory might signify a political realignment.
  • Trump made significant gains with Latino and Muslim American voters.
  • He also improved his performance in traditionally blue states like New York and New Jersey.
  • The election suggests a broader dissatisfaction with the status quo and a desire for change.

Shownotes Transcript

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My name is eva. I live in atlanta, georgia. I am thirty three years old, and I am so relieved.

That is home, baby. Welcome back, Donald j. trump. The results of the election are amazing. And just in the real true voice of the people.

i'm excited to plant.

I feel a sense of pride in my country.

I just fees 这个 A A heavy burden has been lifted off for me last night。 I was, like, finally earned in a certain type of respect that was redemption.

A wars are going to finally end, and amErica will be back on the hands of americans again. I feel like god answered our prayers. I feel like god giving us another chance.

My named marry with Turner. I live in Virginia. And i'm hard broken and i'm terrified. I'm feeling more than just sad. I'm scared I .

am worried for my patience to might not be able to be covered under the affordable character. I'm so surprised. I really thought that we were ready to move on from the sky I feel came out of touch with america.

I guess the opposite is true. More people of them than ever. I just think I don't know this country anymore.

From a new york times i'm maca borrow. This is the daily. On wednesday, americans began to absorb, celebrate and more the reality of a second term presidency and the sheer scale of his Victory over coming Harris. Today, my colleagues need corn and Peter Baker on the voting blocks that trump conquered and the legacy he has redefined. It's thursday, november seven.

They welcome back to the same studio where we spoke. IT feels like just a few hours ago. IT really .

doesn't feel like I spent long at all.

no. And I think the lack of sleep confuses the china logy even more. I want to talk to you about what we didn't get around to talking about in our conversation in the we hours of wednesday morning.

But I walked out .

the one you walked out of because you needed to call pennsylvania. We just didn't have a lot of granular data that took us under the hood of trumps Victory. So that's what we want to do with you now and understand really the sweep of his Victory in the small possible details. So what do you want start?

Well, does not trust me, large gains in places all over the country. He made large gains with many. In fact, most one example is the routines vote. Overall, the exit poll found that Harris only won the heisman ic, about fifty two to forty six. That is the best result for a republican sense. We even asking about tasmania ethnicity in exit data, there's a county and self texas called star counting is almost entirely latino, where trump LED one by more than fifteen points in a place that obama was winning eighty percent of the vote just a few years ago, and where democrats have one in every elections since the one hundred th century, as long as we have .

election results, and suddenly trump, not only that's a haris, but by fifty inta lot.

County, one by eleven. That's a place for Hillary, one by thirty, just a few years ago. That extraordinary .

is a huge shift. Hillary, one by thirty. Trumps, by seven and i'm not so good at math, but that's a forty point swing.

You've got a is a huge swing. It's the sort of swing that in an Apollo country you might think is impossible .

and yet IT happens. So latino voters show up for trump in a huge, and I think we are safe and saying historic way for .

republican yes, and it's part of White trumped so well in texas and florida. And the next week I think we should talk about might be muslim area american voters, dearborn, michigan, a place where americans represented larger share of the population anywhere else in the country. Di will trump l on IT, forty two to thirty six, with jill in getting eighteen.

Joe biden, one. Dearborn, sixty nine and thirty four years ago. So we can do our quick math of thirty nine classes is a forty five point .

swing in dearborn in which down trump gains among american muslim american birds. We have to suspect, because of the protest vote against the sitting vice president for the by administrations policy towards bostonians.

Exactly right to me. Maybe the next most surprising area of strengths, just in general, in the blue states, when done from one and twenty sixteen, there was something fundamental narrow about IT was concentrated on White working classifiers in the midwest. And if you were in a highly educated metro pillar, tiny might have thought Hillary clinton was gonna win decisively, right on your surprising this time.

Truck made big gains in blue america, including where we are right now in new york city, in new york state. We're right now. Come on. Here is only winning by twelve points.

You only twelve points .

side by twenty three just over the river and new jersey right now. Common hair is only up by four closer than arizona, nevada, who were redrawing the background map. New jersey has as good of a case as some of the states that the cans have been missing over and over again.

The march now is eight points in illinois. She's only up by seventeen points right now. In our own home state in california, Donald truck made big gains in the sort of places that seem to be the heart of the opposition to him four and eight years ago.

So overall was with the kinds of gains that we write, a parties and A A candidates relationship with the elector, with entire ethnic groups and entire regions of the country.

Yes, but now I have to say that I am more struck by the breath of downtown d trump skins. Then I am by any narrow breakthrough s that he made. Among particular demographic groups, don trump gained almost everywhere. If you go to the new york times times results page, we have this map that shows .

where places .

shifted from red. If it's told trump, blue arrows. If it's tored terris everywhere, red. I mean, there are a handful of the exceptions, especially in like the sparsely populated west.

This is an election where Donald trump made inroads among almost every group and in almost every county, in almost every region. And that tells me that Donald trump was propel by something that's equally broad, something that cut through across demographic lines. And this wasn't a story fundamental about narrow demographic changes or groups.

But he said something you I think that to explain what happened, you need something that explains all of these shifts. And I think it's harder to do that if you focus your explanation. And well, what caused the hospital vote ship for? What cause new jury to shift?

There is something that was doing IT everywhere. A grander theory, a grander theory, and and daily resonated somewhat differently from different groups. But a lot of IT has to be coming from the same thing for the same pattern .

to emerge more OK. So now that you've brought us to this day give .

us the grand theory, it's not too grand. I think it's pretty simple that this comes down to some of the most basic fundamental things about how elections work. Voters wanted change. They were deeply dissatisfied with the statistical. They were deeply dissatisfied with the president in the economy, and they were not willing to send the vice president back into the White house is a result.

And just to put a five point on IT, no party has ever retained the White house when so many voters disapprove of the president and think the country is setting in the wrong direction. Never, never. Now there were plausible reasons to think that the opposition to Donald trump was so strong that democrats could defy political gravity. That was a plausible theory for what happen this election.

Listening to you say this IT doesn't make a lot of sense that democrats were so confident that this was plausible, but they were pretty confident, or at least they act like they were very confident. Where do you think that confidence came from given the rules of political gravity .

you just described? I think that all those back to the terms to two because the democrats seem m to defy political gravity in that election. You may remember that was supposed be the red wave, but the proof rating was bad in that element.

Terms are usually .

bad for the party. The democrats were competitive in the house, and they swept key senate race after key senate race where the republicans had nominated mag bac candidates, stop the steal candidates.

the Carry lakes.

right? The Carry lakes of the world. Candidates who democrats thought and who, Frankly, I also thought were basically a kin, the Donald trump.

And so the implication was that voters dislike Donald trump and the maga movement so much in the wake of january sex, supreme court decision to overturn rovers, his weight, that the trumper, his allies, would not be able to win. Even the most classic battle ground states, even an environment where they really oto win. And I think that outcome is behind a lot of the assumptions the people made about the twenty, twenty four campaign.

Hm, and the assumption was that even against some pretty serious economic headwinds, a trump style candidate, thus perhaps trump himself would not prevail given the baggage of row and january sex.

That's right. And IT seemed very paul on the wake of the in terms especially when, you know, download, trump was looking ahead to the next two years of criminal and diets and so on.

But that's not the way that IT turned out. And why? I mean, if the lesson was staking, where did go?

I think that the core mistake was and drawing and equivalence between Donald trump and the Carry lakes or dog mastery ones of the .

world candidate for governor .

pencil and canada governor pensylvania, has stopped the deal. Guy, if you are in our political analyst shoes, lake and mastery, ono and trump, they seem like peas in a pod. These are all canals are distinguished by the effort, overturn the election, and by there, you know, conduct that defies the norms of usual politics.

And so when a lake in a mastro to go down, you might infer that Donald trump will also suffer the same fate. But IT is clear with hindsight that voters do not necessarily see an equivalence between diamond trump and Carry lake or doug mostana. In fact, we saw last night, Carry lake is probably gonna lose right now.

She's n again.

She's running again for senate and arizona, and she's probably gonna lose with the same group of voters that's about to send Donald trump back the White house by maybe a comfortable four point margin. So clearly, there are a lot of voters who look at Carrie lake and look at Donald trump and say, actually, i'm fine with doud trump, but they're not fine with carla. That's not something I would have assumed a few years ago. And I think that one way to think about IT is that Donald trump is sort of reaping some of the advances of being .

an incumbent and come on who's skipped .

cycle and in combat, who's skip to cycle. And maybe that's even Better than being an actual .

incomplete given .

the Donald trump's presidency is a time of relative stability. There weren't wars abroad. The Prices were lower. And don trump today is a much stronger candid than he used to be. And I think it's the same factors that make downtown m stronger today are the same ones that distinguish him from a curry lake, even though they seem to be more or less the same kind of politician.

So just to make sure understand, you're saying here that political analysts, the mistake that perhaps joe biden, como Harris and the entire democratic establishment made was to think that when maga accolades of Donald trump faltered in those mid terms, IT meant that he would falter when instead what we have seen from your grand theory explanation here and all the gains within IT among these different groups is that wasn't the case and prompted, well, with all these voters in all of these states who had real objections to the mini mee candidates.

that's exactly right.

All of this makes me wonder whether trumps Victory is a political realignment because that word gets used the r word when a candidate fundamentally alters their relationship or their party's relationship with the entire elector or major groups within the electorate. It's the high watermark of what someone can do in politics. And we look for IT really closely.

And I think all of us have wondered if this race, because trump s seems we've done so much Better with so many different groups, is that realignment? I'm personally listening to you starting to doubt that israel alignment because that sounds like he did really well because of these Angels political forces that are playing in this race. Unpopular president, bad economy does not necessarily a realignment make.

I can definitely see the case for that, especially we're only looking at the twenty four election in isolation.

But I knew there was going be a bug.

There was gonna be a bug. But if if we step back and take the three triumph elections together, sixteen and twenty four, I think there's a real case that we have witnessed. Trump realigned a change in the basic conflict in american politics between the two parties.

The Donald trump redefined what the republican party was. IT is no longer the lower cc conservative party of the establishment and the status quo. IT is now an anti establishment party that advocates radical times changes to the american establishment.

immigration.

migration, trade, foreign policy issues that were a consensus between the two parties in many cases. And as I think this election looks like the cultivation of a realignment that really started in twenty sixteen, when truck made those enormous gains of on networking class voters, he didn't make the same gains among black, latina or Younger voters that election apart because he was an experience. He offended millions of people. He was seen as a sexy and racist and so on. And whatever reason, eight years later, those concerns have gradually faded, and this satisfaction from the statistical has rising to the point where now working class black voters, working class a panic voters, Young voters who previously would have been part of the opposition to Donald trump, have now joined White working class voters and built a fundamentally different political coalition than the republicans had at the begin of the trump era. And to me, that meets the definition of a real alignment, if IT lasts, after added up to a lasting change in politics, rather than just be about this, celebrity has occupied center stage in american life .

for eight years.

And I think that is where our colleague, Peter Baker, is going to pick up. Where are you? Just lept off so name.

Thank you very much. Thanks again. I hope you do get some sleep. I do too. You too.

We'll be .

right back.

okay. I'm opening the new york times .

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Peter, we just spoke to non about the mechanics of donal trumps Victory across the electronic map and these broad gains that he made with prety much every single group of voters. And for so long, democrats have been telling a story about how down trump is, a fringe candidate whose Victory was a fluke in two thousand sixteen. And what's clear now is that that's not true, which is what you, our chief White revenue and our resident presidential have been thinking about since election day. So tells .

about that right? exactly. Because the question always was, is down trap. I know the as risk in history or the inflections point where things have actually changed a meaningful, sustained way.

And democrats have said, as you rightly point out throughout this campaign, that he was but anomaly an abiram that he's not representative of the united states, that we've all known for these many generations. In the final week of the campaign at common, harasses would have big closing rally was out on the olives. I wasn't see SHE said there I was really striking.

He says, you know, doll truck is not who we are. This is not who we are. And the only conclusion you can come to when you wake up after election is that exactly who we are.

At least a major of us, a majority who are voting clearly not only find dnr mp to be acceptable, but they're preferred champion. He's the one that they think does represent them. The things that outrage and a end his opponents are actually appealing in a lot of ways to his own base, or the very leased of they are on appealing. They're going to put any concerns about .

them assign and far beyond his base as we learn from the fact that is won the electrical called and we believe the popular vote exactly.

And that's what makes this so striking. This is not twenty sixteen when he got in through the electro college, but still lost the popular vote. That was always sort of an election with kind of a checkmark next to IT obviously counts, but he didn't have the support of majority of americans.

And by the way, not for a single day with presents y did a majority of americans say the approved of his job performance, unlike any president in our history. And of course, he didn't get a majority in twenty twenty either. So the thought was he is always a minority, canada he want, who succeeded in two thousand sixteen, but really doesn't represent the american people writ large.

This election shows that he does actually, and you're right, if he wins the pop of vote, which is the way he looks right now, he will take that as the indication that he was right all along. And in fact, what this tells us now is we've had a present has done something that nobody he's done, no presence, is done in more than a century, which is, which is to bounce back from a defeat and went again, write not since, grow a clever, and in the eighteen eighties, as a defeated present, come back to win again. And what that means is that the trump a isn't over.

It's going to go on for another four years. He will last basically at least twelve years between the time he takes the office the first time and assuming he finishes the second term. That's an extraordinary at a time.

So what you're positing here is that by losing in the middle, trump expands the time frame of his influence over our politics from the traditional eight years of a two term presidency to twelve .

years yeah because in fact, who do we talk about most over the last four years that actually wasn't jobim. So he wasn't come Harris, the person who dominated the national conversation for four years, even though he wasn't president. He was donal trump.

why? Because he was edited once, twice, three times, four times. He was put on trial, convicted. There was another trial, civil trial and another civil trial, and there was his dominance in the primaries. And suddenly you realized that he's not gone away. He's not the para that I think a lot of people, even republicans, thought he might have been after january six. In fact, he's is powerful within his party as ever.

right? There was this temptation to see his loss as a very important repudiation of him, right? But IT feels like it's time outside the White house, actually seem to increase his popularity and make his return to power more possible.

IT really did. And that's a unique thing in modern times. Are politics traditionally in the art lifetime? Michael has been that if you lose, you're done.

You know, nobody wants you back. We move on. That never happened here. And he forced republicans who might have wanted to move on to get line behind him anyway, because he show that he has such a connection to the base, such a connection to the republican voters, that elected officials who thought he was bad news or wish he had moved on, realized that they couldn't afford to do that because they themselves would be then on the outs and his dominated republican party allowed him to evolve back into the arena with a head of steam, and then propelled him through this fall campaign with enough energy and enough to take on the first the income of present, then the income of vice president, and to force one out the race and then defeat the other one at the bellboy.

and not just to feed that other. One of the about box put in a fashion that broadened the coalition that trumpet created back in two thousand sixteen. Peter, is gna appeal to your historical mind, but there really only is a single president that I can think of whose legacy extends to something like twelve years.

And then, of course, is F, T R. I don't know if that's a comfortable analogy. I know jabbin wouldn't like that. He saw himself as F, D, R. Ask, is that the right place to go?

Yeah is what is great geek questions this story argue, but I, but I think is an important one because you know, obviously trump is no F T R. Lots of ways. And that's not a comparison either one of them would embrace.

But to the extent that fd r was president for twelve years, one a fourth term, and would have been president longer had he not died in office, he dominated the american scene for so long that the whole generation group, without knowing in the other president. And I think about that today, like you have thirty year old voters who went to the polls this week who have never voted for a president that didn't you know contest did not involve on trop ent, right? He is now in the republican in three uh presentin elections in the road.

And I think that his dominance is unlike any president i've seen in his own party. I don't think reagan command the loyalty of public and party in the same way that trumped us now. And I don't think clinton, obama did in the democratic parties. I think the trump is very sweet, generous here.

Peter. If we think that F, D, R is the closest analogy in this conversation to trump, I think we can agree on what F, D, R and his legacy mean to us to this day. right? That's the birth of a social safety.

That is social security. It's the promise of the government to the american people in bodied by the new deal. Many those programs remain with us to this day. How are we wants to think about trumps twelve year legacy and what that means to us?

right? absolutely. no. I mean, F, D, R changed the course of the country, right? He invented, in effect, a new american social compact.

We can do the same thing. I was really like the reaction forty years later to fd. r. Well, now here we are, forty years after that.

And we may have the next president who is changing the course of the country, in this case down. Trump, with twelve years both in power and influential on the stage, has rewritten our understanding of the politics of america. We written understanding of the electric, where understanding of our place in the world and is not on the same liberal, conservative spectrum of fd r.

reagan. It's a whole new version of that. His conservatism is nationalist and protectionist and isolationist and nativists. All of these things at the same time is culture war and appealing to those who feel like the country has drifted away from what they remember at being. So it's its own unique trumping brand of politics.

And I guess the question will be, after twelve years, and this is looking too far ahead, probably, how endorsing is that? What happens after he leave does IT continue to have an effect way fd. r. Did along after he was in office.

right? And Peter, in our conversation with need, he looked at all the things you just described and said that IT amounts to a political realign. But of course, what IT may also amount to is a policy revolution that, of course, was cut short in twenty twenty when trump lost. Now is going to be a second term and we're gonna see if trump is going to remake the country in pretty much is on image. Yeah.

I think it's kind of an american realignment, not just a political realignment in that sense, right? IT is one of these moments in history where you can see things begin to turn. And so that's the question. I think you've framed IT exactly right. We are going to have four more years now trump in office.

And then question becomes, what is the impact after he leaves? What legacy does he leave behind? Has he changed us permanent, or at least for a sustained amount of time, years to come? Is trump still the guiding force in effect for where our country is heading and how IT sees its place in the world?

Peter.

thank you very much. Thanks to talk me.

On wednesday afternoon, vice president Harris conceded to Donald trump during .

a phone call shortly afterward after noon.

Harris addressed her supporters on the campus of Howard university in washington, D. C.

The outcome of this election is not what we wanted, not what we fought for, not what we voted for, but hear me when I say, hear me when I say the light of america's promise will always burn bright.

In a speech, Harris said that while he had conceded the election, he would never concede the values that had animated her campaign.

and so that everyone who was watching do not despair. This is not a time to throw our hands. This is a time to roll of barclays ves. This is a time to organize, to mobilize and to stay engaged for the sake of freedom and justice and the future that we all know we can build together.

Will be right back.

After the movie freezingly, he became a hit work, got out at the star of the film a killer l in cake, was sick and still living in a tiny pool in a mexican amusement park. Fans were outraged. Kids demanded his release and need a lot gone from serial productions in the new york.

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Here's what else you need to. On wednesday, the democratic parties hopes of retaking the house of representatives began to fizzle. Republicans held on to four seats that democrats had sought to flip in new york, new jersey, wisky, sin and IOS.

As a result, republicans expressed growing confidence that they would keep control of the chAmber if that happens, where republicans will control every level of power in washington, the house, the senate and the presidency. Today's episode was produced by Oscar ovi, shanon land, mary Wilson, luke funder club stela mina felt clear tena scatter and will read with help from muge city IT was edited by devin Taylor and Brendan clinton. Burke contains original music by maria mazza so fiel and and rooney mister, and was engineered by olia oxy. Our thing music is by a gym rung berg and the landforms of wonderly special thanks to render cases.

That's IT for the day of me. I'm maco borrow. See tomorrow.