A Sudden Escalation in Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office
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President elect Donald trump has promised a radically different approach to forever n policy from the by ministration, perhaps nowhere more so than in ukraine or trump, his pledge to end the war in a day, but just weeks before he's set to take office, the war has taken an unexpected turn. Today, my colleague and time trio ski on the conflict, dangerous new phase.

It's monday no over twenty fifth.

So in time, we've seen this real ratcheting up in the war in ukraine over the past week. Help us understand what's going on.

Well, we've seen a bunch of new developments that are really quite dangerous, quite equatorial. We have seen missiles flying across the border between russia and ukraine in a way we haven't seen before. We have seen the bite administration taking steps that they have not been willing to take before.

And we've seen a new kind of red from president putin in moscow. And what this all adds up to is that the war is becoming more dangerous, more ballater. And specifically, what's happening is that we're getting closer to this war in ukraine, turning into a broader war between russia and the west.

So I M this is very striking because in just a few months ago, we were talking about the russians digging into positions in the ukraine. And IT was this protracted trench warfare. How did we get from there to here?

The turning point was early August.

The unthinkable for many russians is now a reality. Their homeland invaded ukraine.

broke that stale y by invading russia.

It's the first time there's been a foreign n of russia since four.

two ukrainian troops went into russian curse region on the border, captured about four hundred square miles of territory and delivered this huge embarrassment of layma. Putin, who IT turned out couldn't even protect what was internally recognized russian territory, knows and is providing the exact pressure needed. So that incursion into cursor was a big moral boost for a ukraine, but IT came at a cost.

Russians are making gains, capturing partially destroyed villages, raising the russian try color flag. In order to do IT, ukraine had to thin out its troops in eastern ukraine, where russia was advancing. They just don't have the personnel to hold all this territory. And as a result, russia was actually able to push forward in eastern ukraine at a much higher clip. Then before.

in other words, for the first time in a long time, the front line was actually moving, and IT was moving .

to russia advantage exactly. And then this fall, vlada mir putin pulled out his own surprise. The confirmed that there are north korean troops now in russia, especially in the region, of course, which is these bringing in north korean troops. Reportedly, there's something like ten thousand troops from north korea that are fighting or getting ready to fight on the russian side.

And that was a really remarkable moment, right? Because suddenly it's about more than just russia, ukraine. There's a third country involved.

exactly. And think about north korea, how an important that country is strategically as a nuclear armed adversary of the united states, and what IT shows about how close the strategic relationship between russia and north korea has become that has sent shock waves really around the world.

okay. So you've laid out this pretty major shift in the war, but of course, all of this was happening in the months leading up to the U. S. election. One, of course.

by Donald trump. exactly. And Donald trump s Victory in the election is gonna have a norms repercussions for the war. Remember his campaign? He refused to say that he wanted ukraine to win the war.

He promised to end the war in twenty four hours, which was widely seen as him being open to a deal that could essentially sell ukraine out to russia. He brought on J. D. Vance as his vice president, who has been extremely critical of american support for ukraine. So you've had so many signals coming from the trump camp that his presidency will be much tougher for ukraine than the biden presidency was.

So trust election, in other words, was very bad news for the ukrainians, because the americans and biden in particular, was their biggest ally. And he's gone.

yes. So went Donald trump, one president lensky in ukraine swang to win over Donald trump mode. And, you know, he was one of the first world leaders to have a phone call with him. He waited, congratulating trump on impressive election Victory. And so there's a hope in ukraine that trump will still want to support their refight, that supporting ukraine will be kind of a way that trump projects american strength globally. But still, I think there's a huge amount of concern among supporters of ukraine everywhere that trump s will just see IT as much less of a national interest for the us to allow ukraine to keep fighting and somehow defeat russia in this war.

right, which by definition is good for russia. So tell us how putin and russia are thinking about this. Trump in.

So to step back for a sec, putin's fundamental bed throughout this war has been that at the end of the day, russia cares more about ukraine and is willing to sacrifice more to win in ukraine. Then does the west, then do the united states.

And so to putin, trumps Victory shows that at the end of the day, many americans don't care enough about ukraine to continue sending tens of billions of dollars of weapons there and to be in a situation where russia is threatening an escalation that could draw the U. S. Into a direct war with the world's other nuclear superpower. At the same time, he also brings putin closer to something he could call Victory in ukraine, because putin's primary goal at this point is not to capture more territory. His main goal is some kind of deal that would allow him to end the war and say he wanted.

okay. So basically with trumps Victory, IT really seemed like things were on a glide path to exactly the kind of .

outcome the putin wanted. Not quite, because for one thing, Donald trump is not in power yet and the bite administration has been very clear on seeking to continue to support ukraine. That became even more clear in the last couple weeks when president biden made a really important shift in his own policy.

For the first time, he allowed ukraine to use american missiles to strike deep inside russian territory. These missiles are called attack comes. They have a range of one hundred ninety miles.

Ukraine has been asking for months, if not longer, to be able to use these missiles for those kinds of strikes inside russia in order to disrupt russia's ability to build up its forces, resupply its forces and wage this war. The biden administration has resisted that because they've feared that that would be the kind of thing that could really push putin to escalate the war in a new way. But then putin brought in those north korean troops that we talked about. And that, apparently, as our colleagues and washington have reported, is what pushed president biden to change course and allow ukraine to use those american missiles for strikes inside russia.

And how soon does ukraine make use of these long range rockets?

Just about immediately.

it's anxious. Hours after ukraine fired amErica .

made long range missiles called attack comes last tuesday, they fired these attack missiles and hit an ammunition deepo in the Browns screen of southwestern russia. And then on wednesday, ukraine fired storm shadow cruise ed missiles, which are these british manufactured long range missiles, into the cusk region. Neither of those, as far as we know, did massive damage, but the symbolic sm was enormous. For the first time ukraine was firing, western provided missiles deep into russian territory, believing everyone asking what to spot n do now.

We'll be right back.

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So you've set up this very high stakes moment for putin. The U. S.

Has crossed his red line, allowing the use of these missiles into russia. They're kind of throwing down the glove, if you will. What is putin do?

The first thing we see is early in the week, less than two days after the news comes out that president fighting is gna allow ukraine to strike russian territory with those american made missiles. A putin approves russia revised nuclear doctrine.

What does that mean?

So IT sounds biocon tic, but it's actually pretty serious. The nuclear doctor defines how and when russia would consider using its nuclear weapons. And remember, russia has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons.

So putin revises this stock trend to lower the threshold at which russia would consider using nuclear weapons. And not just that. He also updates IT to say that an attack from a non nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint attack on russia, a user trigger.

so to speak. And specifically, IT relates to ukraine, because ukraine not a nuclear power, but the united states is a nuclear power.

exactly. Putin has this enormous nuclear arsenal, but he hasn't been able to figure out how to use IT effectively as a deterrent against the us. And so that's what this new doctor is about, finding a new way, basically, to scare americans.

And IT seems that I did in a way. Last wednesday, the U. S. Embassy and cave issued this urgent warning, saying that russia might launch a significant air attack and closed its embassy and told employees to shelter in place, which was a really rare move. Obviously, kev has been attacked many, many times during the course of the last almost three years, and for much of that time, the embassy hasn't Operating. So closing the embassy was another signal that things were getting even more dangerous.

So what happens? Was there an attack?

So on thursday there was russia raised the stakes in the war against ukraine by fire and experimental ballistic missile, and it's the first of its kind to be used in this conflict. And russia does something IT hasn't done since the start of the war, which is to use a new missile, something similar to the kind that use to deliver strategic nuclear weapons. IT has a range of three thousand miles.

That means it's a weapon that could be capable of reaching targets across europe. We're talking about something that would be used for a large scale nuclear attack and that uses this missile to strike in a ukrainian city new pro. This is a kind of missile that releases multiple warheads.

So you see in videos of the attack these multiple glowing orbs kind of dropping one after the other. It's the kind of missile developed to do really massive damage. To be clear, this particular missile didn't have nuclear warheads in IT. But think about the messages that that sending. And on top of all that, these warheads are designed to attack at hypersonic speeds, meaning multiple times the speed of sound.

interesting. So air defensives .

don't work against them exactly. And so IT was all about sending this signal that russia was ready to respond and ready to escalate further.

So putin keeps trying to get the west to listen.

to pay attention. absolutely. And he doesn't just launch that missile. Have you playing any of illusion is stuff. He then gives a speech, a televised ed speech, to the nation of the kind he delivers.

Very rarely, he's sitting in what looks like the same woods panel office as where he was when he launched the invasion in february two thousand and twenty two. He looked pretty tired, pretty, very aggrieved. And he says, we consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allowed their weapons to be used against our facilities. In other words, a direct .

reference to what happened with biden allowing .

the use of the attack exactly last.

So IT sounds like what he say here is that he would be willing .

to attack the us. Yeah, you know, it's the kind of threat he's made throughout this. What kind of vegan? But this is the most explicit.

We've heard him say this. And toward the end of the speech, he says that out and then comes back with, he had another threat. He says, now I see I am in the city.

I would like to emphasize once again that IT was not russia, but the united states that destroyed the international security system. And by continuing to fight and clean to its hegemony, they're pushing the whole world into a global conflict up. We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, but we are also ready for any turn of events. If anyone still doubts this, make no mistake, there will always be a response activities, the budget.

So this is pretty remarkable and seems pretty frightening. What did you make of IT in time when you've been following putin for a long time?

Yeah, I mean, putin has been making threats toward the west, including with references, veiled references to his nuclear arsenal since day one of the invasion. But what makes this situation, I think, particularly concerning is the specific ity of IT. You know, putin's previous threats have been quite bag, and so that's the concerning thing here.

So what does all of this mean for the possibility of an end to the war of settlement like we've been talking about?

Well, it's definitely a strange moment because people have been talking more seriously about the potential for a settlement and how that would look then really at any point since the early months of the war. And so as that's happening, you know, you have putin going essentially all in on this escalator thread that if he continues to make good on IT, would clearly make IT harder for Donald trump to actually engage in some kind of negotiations with putin. You know, think about, obviously, god forbid, if there were to be a direct russian attack on any kind of american facility, how could Donald trump, t at that point, do something that would make IT look like he is doing putin bidding in ukraine.

right? But I get big picture here. Putin does want the word to be over, and he seems to be in a pretty good position to achieve that.

Yes, he does. But there's still a few weeks to go before trump comes in and starts trying to end this. And so in the meantime, there's this pretty frantic, incredibly bloody effort by both sides, by both russia and ukraine to try to grab as much territory or hold on to as much territory as possible before potential negotiations begin.

So what you're seeing, for one thing, is putin pushing really hard to get the ukrainian military out of curse. And that, of course, is also where ukraine is using those new american and british missiles to try to slow the russian counter offensive there. And then you've also got russia really pushing hard in the dam bus region of eastern ukraine, trying to grab as much territory as they can, despite those casualty rates of a thousand people a day or more that russia is losing. So there is definitely a lot of jacking happening ahead of the expectation that when trump comes to power, he will at least try to create the conditions for some kind of.

okay. So fundamentally, we are now likely looking at the beginning of the end of this war with putin as the winner. Well.

he's still got ta get a deal and ultimately, he'll still need to sit down at some sort of negotiating table to get that. He's been pretty explicit about what he wants. He's made clear that he will not give up territory, the territory that russia has captured, that's for sure.

But what putin clearly cares more about the territory is the political aspect and the geopolitical aspect of some kind of agreement. So most important is that ukraine will never join nato. And then on the other end, of course, ukraine clearly is gonna have a say in this as well. For ukraine, what's become clear is that for them also, territory is not the most important thing. You know, IT IT does look like there's more and more acceptance that in order to bring this war to a close, ukraine will have to accept russian occupation of part of its lands.

So what ukraine cares about the most is, what do I refer to as security guarantees? How will ukraine feel assured that russia won't just reconstitute its forces and attack again a few years from now? So then the question is, gonna become, how can ukraine get security guarantees without being part of the nato alliance? Will countries actually sign up for some kind of agreement in which we'll be treaty bound to come to ukraine's defense if russia attacks again, right?

If there's anything we've learned over the past few weeks, it's just how tenuous is that western support .

can be a definitely you know, russia and ukraine actually did sit down at the negotiating table together in the first few weeks of the war. And one of the reasons we've reported that, that negotiation fell apart back in the spring of two thousand and twenty two is that they couldn't actually figure out a mechanism for those security guarantees for ukraine that would work. How do you make ukraine feel reasonably safe from a new russian attack that was never solved back then? And it's clearly gonna be the biggest chAllenge now.

and that's a really hard problem to solve. The west is tired and IT clearly does not seem very incline to come to the aid of ukraine, this country. That is the obsession of this very tenacious and very dangerous leader, putin. So at the end of the day and on, is putin getting away with IT?

Well, let's remember, first of all, that both the west and putin have been surprised repeatedly during this war by ukraine tenacity and ukraine will to fight. We have not seen much sign at this point, even though ukrainian soldiers are clearly very tired and a ukraine is struggling to get enough men on the battlefield.

But still we're not seeing that ukraine is actually ready to stop fighting, you know, and that means you could even imagine a scenario wear, even if trump tries to force some kind of peace deal, ukraine might try to continue to fight. But big pictures, Sabrina, you raise an important point. Putin has been wagging the biggest war of aggression that europe has seen since world war two.

It's a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives in terms of killed and injured, and not to mention the civilians that have died in ukraine. But despite all the western sanctions and the tremendous amounts of weapons that ukraine has received from the west, putin is still going domestically. He's as powerful as he's ever been.

And globally, you know, he may be a pari in the west, but outside the west, russia continues to have a lot of influence. So as we approached the three year mark of this war, IT is time, I think, for serious questions about what the west has and hasn't been able to accomplish in supporting ukraine. The west has been able to keep ukrainy in the fight, but IT has not been able to start putting.

And on thank you.

Thank you, sabina.

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