Is "The Trump Effect" Already Securing the Border?
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Charlie

Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

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Joining us now is the premier expert on immigration, Todd Bensman, author of Overrun, fellow for the Center for Immigration Studies. He has a brand new piece from The Daily Wire. The Trump effect 2.0, illegal border crossing set to plummet on one condition. Todd, welcome back to the program. What is the Trump effect in 2016 and is it happening again? The Trump effect had the effect of it was that

Just his campaign rhetoric during 2015, 2016 caused illegal immigrants to stay home and shelter in place because he was saying crack down, crack down, big, beautiful border wall, et cetera. So they stayed home. The numbers dropped by 80 percent almost overnight. And then once he got into office, it really stayed down. But.

I think that the rhetoric connection to illegal immigrant decision-making is still very strong in that we are probably in the middle of a second Trump effect right now. We are not seeing the mad rushes that we thought we were going to see before Trump.

mainly because you got Tom Holman out there now with a football stadium-sized bullhorn screaming to the world, we're going to deport all of you. We're deporting everybody. Get ready. Don't get comfortable, that sort of thing. And that has a very powerful effect on

on the receivers, on the receiving end of this. And so I'm hoping that we are going to see this decline and that the end of the mass migration crisis of the last four years is almost here.

So that's a really important question, Todd, before we proceed. Some people say, oh, that's just rhetoric. Can you give us more detail on how that resonates with an illegal who is illegally domiciling and harboring themselves in America? Those statements, they spread like shockwaves throughout America.

communities. Is that a fair assessment, Todd Bensman? Yeah, absolutely. That is the truth. That is what happens. But what we saw, and I point out in the Daily Wire piece today in 2017, that the numbers started to creep back up because they're watching for follow through. They need to see actions behind the rhetoric. They

They need to see people actually blocked and actually deported. And they're watching on their cell phones. I've never met a migrant that didn't have a cell phone fully connected to the internet and social media and everything else. In 2017, immigrant advocate, open borders people gummed up all of Trump's policies immediately with litigation. So he was unable to implement

for many months. It took a long time before he won those cases. And so they started to creep back in because they saw that the action was not matching rhetoric.

The thing to watch for in Trump effect point, you know, 2.0 is that very thing. We saw a piece in the New York Times just last week about how battalions of immigration lawyers in the United States are already mustered by

to mount a massive legal challenge to every single thing Trump does. So the big question is whether Trump will be able to implement

around that. And I think there's a good chance that he will this time because many of the policies that he's going to put in place are already legally vetted, like remain in Mexico, safe third country, you know, Title 212F. There are things that he can do right away that should, you know, act as follow through and deportations mean everything. So if they start getting people deported right away, you know,

They will be showing up on airport tarmacs in Honduras and whatnot and making news in Spanish language media. And that's really what does the trick. I think that we're very close to being able to call the great mass migration crisis of 2021 to 2025 over.

That's a remarkable statement. And you kind of said this, Todd, in so many words, but I want to emphasize it. Is self-deportation a realistic thing?

that will happen of somebody that is, for example, they've been illegally in Las Cruces, New Mexico, deportations are threatened. They might just go back to their country of origin. Is that realistic? I think that to a limited extent, that might work for some of them. People who are promised, look, we'll let you get in line through the legal process if you go voluntarily. But if we have to come and get you,

you'll be banned for 10 years or longer from any possibility of coming in legally. So there is some merit to the argument. I don't think it's going to be a large scale, but I think it'll help. So it's just amazing to me how overnight it's like flipping a switch. We went from America is a pile of money to loot and you could just come in. So all of a sudden, oh, no, actually we're a country.

It just is so, it's so, can you just build that out, Todd? It's, it, we were only 10 days into this and we're seeing caravans getting broken up and it's just, it shows that it was a lack of the will from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It was a lack of the will. It wasn't some sort of major crisis they couldn't figure out. It was a lack of the will or even more sinister, the will to do the opposite. Todd, your thoughts. Right. This has always been a very simple calculus of,

When immigrants think that they're going to get in and stay in and work, they're going to drop the 10 grand on smugglers to get in. But if there's a pretty good chance that they're going to get pushed back and blocked, they're not going to do it.

So when the Biden campaign, and I mean the campaign, was talking about we're going to let everybody in, we're going to give them this, raise your hand for free health care and decriminalizing illegal entry and everything, they all heard that and came running. All they needed to hear was we're shutting it down.

You have Tom Holman out there, you know, talking up a storm about what he's going to do. And I'm telling you, that is, you know, incredibly impactful all by itself. He's going to have to follow through, of course. And I think that they will, to a large extent, be able to follow through enough. But they listen to, they're smart. They

immigrants, I spent a lot of time with them. They are smart and savvy. They're making a calculus just like you and I would if we had some job offer in another city or whatever. We're going to make sure that it works financially for us. That's all it ever took. It just takes somebody to say no mas. No mas is right. And so, Todd, let me ask you, we have two minutes remaining.

You are, this is not a hypothetical because, you know, there's some great people. What specific executive orders do you want to see signed on day one? Policy changes, Todd Bensman. Let's just go one, two, three, four for the audience. Donald Trump says, so help me God on the King James Bible. He is president of the United States. He walks into the outer room of the Capitol, sits down and goes start signing pieces of paper. What do you want to have him sign? Number one,

eliminate CBP-1 humanitarian parole immediately. That has to be suspended right away. We're going to let you apply on a cell phone app and walk you in over the land port bridge and allow you to fly into the United States immediately.

That's a million and a half people right there that they just allowed right in. Number two, to compliment that, remain in Mexico right off the bat. That is fully legally vetted all the way up to the Supreme Court. Incredibly impactful.

And number three, safe third country. That was a policy that's also legally vetted where you're not allowed to apply for asylum here if you've passed through one other safe country to get here. And there's a lot of them that do that. Mexico is a safe country.

And we deny you the ability to fake your way through a bogus asylum claim, which is the big draw. Those are three biggies right there. And you can do you can Google this 212 F of the Immigration and Nationality Act that allows a president to push back 100 percent of everybody on a whim for no reason at all. Put all those in place and it's done. Oh, one other thing.

Tell Mexico it's tariffs up the wazoo if you don't use your military to shut that down also to reinforce. As Donald Trump says, the most beautiful word in the dictionary, more so than love, is tariff. Because he knows exactly that he can have ultimate leverage to get the American people what they want. Todd Bensman, thank you so much. Thank you.

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Okay, I want to play some of our voicemails here. So we've been a little behind on our members group, members.charliekirk.com. You guys can send us voicemails. Once we get back to a regular established order here on The Charlie Kirk Show, which I don't know when that will be, Andrew, based on what's happening here.

I'm not leaving here anytime soon. We'll be doing our Zoom calls. However, in the meantime, let's play some voicemails. I'd love to respond to them and hear from our amazing listeners. If you guys want to communicate with me directly and get tons of benefits, it's members.charliekirk.com, members.charliekirk.com, play cut 421. Hey, Charlie. Thank you so much for everything you've done. I just want to know what the chances of Gates being confirmed are.

And if you think they'll have to do it in recess. Thank you again so much. Appreciate you. That's a wonderful question. Number one, this might surprise you to hear. I don't think we should do an attorney general in recess. I think that is one you have to get a Senate vote. Why? If you're going to be signing search warrants and arrest warrants, that needs to go through every established order or else people will not have trust in the

We want to rebuild trust in the justice system. So that one in particular, I don't think you should go recess. I give it a 50-50 shot because of President Trump's political capital. We have Mark Halperin joining us next segment. And he says, my base case is that Gates gets through. And look, I'm talking to some of these senators and they might not like Gates, but it's like, well, will you publicly come against Gates? No, no,

no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Oh, okay. So guess what? Unlike the Senate leadership election, when you guys were able to go hide in your little corner in the shadows, and we don't know who voted for Thune and who voted for Cornyn, we know exactly who will vote for Matt Gaetz. So

If president, president, when a president has a mandate, which is very rare, you get a couple of gimme's. You get a couple little mulligans, if you will, where you kind of get whatever you want. And the question is, how bad does President Trump want this? And by all indications, both public and private, President Trump has earned this and he really wants it. So if he goes to the mat for Matt Gaetz, I would give probability towards Matt Gaetz's confirmation.

Play voicemail 422 from one of our members, members.charliekirk.com. Hi, Charlie. This is Nellie. I live in California. And I'm wondering how Trump feels about CBDC, central bank and digital currency, especially with Elon Musk coming on board to be a part of his administration.

And if he supports it or if he is against it and what that looks like for our future financial industry.

Thank you. So great question. I believe he made a campaign promise to eliminate CBDC. I could be incorrect in that, but every campaign promise he's made so far as far as personnel has been executed upon. So I believe CBDC will not happen under a Trump administration. You guys can or not to establish it. Essentially, he said that will not happen. OK, let's play a member voicemail. Members got Charlie Kirk dot com for 23. And thank you for being a member. Hello, Charlie.

I just want to send my sincerest thanks to you and your crew for what you have done for this country and for saving it. What a huge part you played. I have joy that I haven't had for a very long time under the Biden administration. My question for you is who would you like to see as White House Press Secretary? I am hoping Charlie Kirk is a possibility. Or how about Greg Kelly?

We need someone up there that can kick some... Well, first of all, love the question. I am not going to be White House press secretary. Here's the... Let me just tell you. I'm going to be here every day, guys, leading the charge from the outside, organizing Turning Point USA, organizing Turning Point Action. I think what we built here is really special. I think I could be more effective on the outside. By the way, you need outside allies. You need weaponry and machinery on the outside. Greg Kelly is a phenomenal choice. However, and I'll say this, we...

We need Greg Kelly on Newsmax. We need Greg Kelly on that program. So let me tell you, I like Will Kane. I think Will Kane would be great. He's my sleeper pick. I think Will has a great way about him. Don't you agree, Andrew? I think Will is a terrific guy, right? He's so good on TV. He's smart. He's sharp. He's precise. He presents beautifully. So I think Will Kane would be great. Caroline Levitt's a great choice, obviously.

I don't think Alina Hava wants it based on just her tweets. So we'll see. We'll see what happens. Hey, everybody. Charlie Kirk here as we gear up for another important election year. Remember that we vote every day with our dollar. One of the best ways to support America is by buying from local farms and ranches. Good Ranchers makes this easy by delivering 100 percent American meat to your door. When you shop with Good Ranchers, you're not just getting the best meat for your family, but also supporting American farmers and ranchers.

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thriving and ensures you get the highest quality meat for your family. I love Good Ranchers. You should check it out right now at goodranchers.com. Use promo code Kirk. That is goodranchers.com. Check it out right now. Promo code Kirk. Okay, Mark Halperin joins us right now. He's been the best political reporter of this cycle. I think he's the best political reporter in America. From Mark Halperin's Wide World of News and most importantly, twoway.tv. That's the right URL, right? I believe it's twoway.tv. Mark, welcome back to the program.

Sterling, thank you. Thank you for your kind words. And I'm amazing. You're probably the first person who was at Mar-a-Lago last night who's awake. So congratulations. Well, for the record, I am not a late night guy. I left at like 930. I got a nice dinner with my wife and I was asleep at a reasonable hours.

So everyone else is recovering. I also don't drink because that makes it easier. Mark, and I say those words because you've earned them because you have been a straight shooter. You're not one of these new era political journalists with an agenda. You have a very interesting take, which I agree with. It's a contrarian, but it's true. You say your base case right now is that Donald Trump is going to get his cabinet, specifically Matt Gaetz and Bobby Kennedy. Please make the case to our audience.

Well, I don't think it's a sure thing, but I think people are being too caught up in the way the most of the media covers confirmation controversies, which is what I call perils of Pauline, which is like everything's raining out of control and there's all these issues and the person's never going to be confirmed. I think that President Trump won and the Republican Party recognizes the magnitude of the victory demographically, geographically, electorally.

And I think it's going to be difficult for four senators, which is what it would take for Republicans, to vote against these nominees. There are five of them now that are controversial, that want to shake things up, that have biographical facts and positions from their past that make them not every senator's favorite choice.

But the Trump campaign, the Trump transition, rather, has not started to organize MAGA pressure on these senators, has not started to make the case for them. And I think the media narrative leaves out the fact that Bobby Kennedy was chosen for this job because he's inspiring tens of millions of people about Trump.

children's health that, uh, Pete Hegseth was chosen for the job because he's spoken out passionately about getting wokeism out of the Pentagon. That, uh,

that Tulsi Gabbard was chosen for the job because she's talked about the intelligence community working in a more efficient way and that Matt Gaetz was chosen for the job because people wanted to end the politicization of the Justice Department. I'm not saying they're perfect people. I'm not saying there aren't legitimate questions about their background, but I think people are underestimating the extent to which MAGA will fight for these people and that Republican senators, not every one of them, will respond to that.

That's an interesting point. And it's a unique thing because the senators that very well might hold this up are from very, very red states of which they...

are overwhelmingly pro-Trump, where there are real threats of primary challenges, of which some of these old bulls in their mid-80s have not experienced this sort of combination of a mandate election. There happened to be in cycle, you have very popular, albeit unusual cabinet picks,

How will the old bulls be able to get through that? Well, look, there's the dynamic you and I have just talked about, which is the threat of a primary challenge or pressure at home. But there's another more kind of mundane thing, which is right now every Republican senator has staff members, donors, constituents, and maybe even some family members who'd like to work in the Trump administration.

And if they want to have their folks eligible for jobs, I don't think they're going to be in that line anymore if they're the ones who tank any of Donald Trump's nominees. So there's a lot of pressure on them to support. And also just deference, not just an elected president who just won the popular vote, first Republican to do that in 20 years, but

for this particular president who dominates the party unlike any other Republican president since Reagan, and maybe even more than Reagan did. So they're going to be under a lot of pressure. Now, there are two Republican senators of the 53, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who are impervious to most of what we just discussed. And I wouldn't be surprised if they voted against all five of the controversial candidates. Yeah, I agree.

I agree. But that means they still need to be tuned to more. Now, Mitch McConnell, we know Mitch McConnell not particularly beholden to MAGA. He could vote against them. They'd still need one more. But you can imagine that happening. So, again, I'm not saying it's a sure thing. But what I'm saying is the tone of the coverage leaves out two important things. Why they were picked, the positives of why they were picked.

And the prospect that they will, in fact, be confirmed. But I have to caveat this, Charlie, by saying I have extraordinarily good pro-Trump sources on Capitol Hill, around Mar-a-Lago, who are very pessimistic about Gates and about Kennedy in particular.

And you can't discount that. So I'm not saying it's a sure thing. I'm just saying I still think it's more likely than not they're confirmed. And I still think the press coverage would lead you to believe their chances were de minimis and they're not. Yeah, and I think that's right. And so just have we ever seen, Mark, in your reporting career,

a president have to go to the mat for a cabinet official? And what does that look like? What does it look like when a president really wants somebody? Yeah. So great question. He's now picked five fights that for any other White House transition would be like the monster fight. Like, this is it. He's picked five, and I think there'll be more. Well, look, what it looks like is you pick someone who's called a confirmation Sherpa.

Someone with experience on Capitol Hill who develops a strategy, which senators votes are going to make a difference. How do we court them? When do we do a courtesy call? Who do we who do we who do we call to, you know, to lobby them to vote for the nominee? This president is different than most presidents in this regard in a lot of ways, but in this respect.

If there was a story that came out tomorrow that said nominee X had once been sued by a business partner or had a messy divorce from his wife, there's some presidents who would be like, whoa, I'm not sure we can stand by this person anymore. Donald Trump, as you know, he doesn't have that attitude. He'd be like, it's probably fake. Maybe it's real. Who cares? Let's move forward. So he'll fight for them.

more than most presidents. The bar will be high for him to give up on them, but they have to fight for it too. Donald Trump expects, we saw this with Brett Kavanaugh, he expects his nominees who are under siege, whether it's within their own party or with the press or the other party, he expects them to fight pretty hard. And I think the group he's picked are a bunch of fighters. I think all five of them are not going to shrink away. That is true.

However, it's a long process, long process, background check, confirmation, courtesy calls, confirmation hearing, vote in committee, vote on the floor. And again, I hear from a lot of my sources, some of these people aren't going to make it to a committee hearing, that they'll be out before then because their families are going to say it's not worth it. And I think that's true. Every one of these folks is going to go through, as much as all five of them have played at a high level in national life, whether it's media or politics or law or something else,

All five of them are almost certainly going to go through, before the hearing, a tougher level of scrutiny than they've ever gotten. And that's not for everybody. It's not for every family. But Donald Trump will be there for them if they want to go forward. I suspect he'll be there for them. Yeah, and I'll say this. President Trump will go to the mat for them, especially if it's one that he made the decision for. If he felt as if he was being strong-armed by somebody else—

around him, then that is a different calculus. Would you agree with that, Mark? Great insight. It's absolutely the case. And to be honest, this personnel process has been, even by Trump's standards, extremely chaotic.

extremely chaotic. It's been Reese company meets game of Thrones. Just, just everything's sprawled all over the place and people are named and other people are supposed to be in charge. Don't even know what's happening. So I think you're right. There's some in this group who he, he wanted, he chose, he will fight for them. If it was kind of not imposed on him, but it wasn't his original idea. And he was a little ambivalent about it. He may not fight as hard, but I do think he doesn't want to lose, but he,

Again, this is the Trump mentality. It's one of his advantages is if one of these people go down, he won't think about it for 20 more minutes. He might personally feel bad for them, but he'll switch on a dime and say, all right, who are we nominating next? How are we going to get that person confirmed? Next man up. And it's just, it'll, by the way, in the Trump news cycle,

I mean, things last like 12 minutes right now. The old joke is I texted my buddy, Pete Hegseth, who I just adore. He's just amazing. He's like, man, you know, I was like, you know, hey, the media is tough right now, Pete. Don't worry. Wait 30 minutes. Reinforcements are coming. And all of a sudden, next thing you know.

A lot of other announcements. No one's talking about Pete Hicks right now as much. So, Mark, I want to now shift gears to talk a little about the state of the Democrat Party. We have about a minute and a half here. Tease it out. I've been anticipating this kind of major shockwave and backlash, but there's a fascinating piece on Politico, which is basically the disappearing resistance. Sure feels that way. Are we right?

Well, I think for now, and you hear that on my two-way platform, what Democrats are saying is they're so filled with unhappiness, anger, confusion, that rather than organizing marches or joining new organizations or watching MSNBC or CNN, they want to take a break.

And I think you may see that through the holidays. I think in January, when the reality of Donald Trump taking the oath of office and being back in the White House, then I think you're going to see more engagement, more organizing. But right now, there is an interesting level of disengagement. There hasn't been rioting. There hasn't been the announcement of very many new organizations. There have been a few, but not grassroots. And I think that's testament to

They are resigned to what America decided and they're trying to figure out how they feel about accepting the result. Yeah, it's just a fatigued movement. Understandably, by the way, they've been in full nonstop resistance mode through COVID, post-COVID, trying to stop Trump. It's just, and they lost and they know they lost.

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It contrasts with Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016, where right away after I talked about the scientists marching, but there's a huge women's march. Yeah, the pink hats.

Much more, right, the pink hats, much more overt kind of let's get in the streets and protests. It seems like people have been on the left and Democrats have been hit by a sledgehammer. And I think what they're having a lot of trouble kind of dealing with is that the election showed that the country has moved forward

to the right, which was not kind of going into election night where everyone was saying it was razor close was not the expectation. And, you know, they're kind of in mourning over that.

Mark, that's from your wonderful dialogue. Add more depth to that, please. Well, that's Jill Abramson, the former editor of the New York Times, who has a pretty good feel for that community. And I think it's a weird combination of shock and acceptance. And as you said, it's hard to be in the resistance for 10 years. And even as Joe Biden had a four-year presidency,

Donald Trump was dominating a lot of American discussion, dialogue, popular culture, popular consciousness. And so I think there's so much second guessing on the level of kind of tactics of campaigns like Joe Biden staying in too long or was Kamala Harris the right person or did she run a good campaign? But what some Democrats are realizing is the problem they have is more profound. It's the alienation.

that occurred because of the way the party's conducted itself on what Ronald Reagan called the three stools of the three-legged stool of the Republican Party, on foreign policy with the forever wars, on economics without an agenda for the middle class that was compelling. And then on cultural issues that President Trump, like immigration and transit, President Trump has done so well with. I think

We had a guy on two way this morning earlier today who is a young doctor who voted for Barack Obama. He lives in Tennessee, who voted for Bobby Kennedy. And and he talked about his alienation from the Democratic Party as inauthentic, as rigging the system against against people like Bernie Sanders and Bobby Kennedy.

His description of his alienation from the party is a big part of why I think the Democrats are confused. They can't agree on what went wrong. They can't agree on who to lead them. And they can't agree on what the solution is to get out of where they are now. Yeah. And so they kind of need a truth and reconciliation commission or something. I mean, at some point,

The what are let me ask you this. What the rank and file one thing. What are the elders of the Democrat Party saying in two minutes, Mark? What are the what are the top families? What are they saying? Most of what they believe is that the party needs to do what Bill Clinton did in 1999 or 1989 to 92, which is to stand up to the far left of the party and say, we honor your participation in the party. We don't want to be at war with you.

but you've dragged us too far to the left to come up with some new policy ideas that speak to people, particularly on economics. And then most of them would say a governor, not a Washington person, but a governor who understands how to communicate with authentic language. And it's true that all it would take would be to have a compelling, dynamic, more moderate figure

be the presidential nominee and win the White House in 2028 to bring the party back pretty quickly. Now, I don't see who that person is, and that's a big ingredient, but they're hopeful that they can lay the groundwork to do that. And they're hopeful that Donald Trump will overreach. And they read in these controversial nominations that we talked about,

indication that Donald Trump will overreach and that that will give them the opportunity to get an audience with the American people again to make the case that they've got something better on offer. Yeah, that would make so much sense. I don't see the Democrat Party shedding their far left base anytime soon. We'll see. We shall see. I do not see that, especially in the era of social media and the way primaries are done now, which is a race to the base. It's a race to the base. You're right. I share your skepticism. I share your skepticism.

Mark, great job. Thank you so much. Come back anytime. Twoway.tv. Check it out. Thank you. Good to see you, man. Thank you so much for your kind words. You bet. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless.