Shownotes Transcript
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If you were going to give me a little grace, please, I'm not going to overly amplify today as I typically would because we're still healing and recovering. But yes, the voice is getting better. Blake is co-piloting today. Hello, Charlie. So Blake, I want to start today talking about North Carolina. What's going on in North Carolina? Okay, Charlie. So let's just lay it out. We've talked a lot about battleground states in this election. And generally, you've had the same roster of states considered the most decisive ones.
The old blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and then also the Sunbelt states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Most of those are states. Those are the five states Trump won that flipped blue in 2020. It's from 2016 to 2020. And then also Nevada, which went Democrat both times, but there's been some really good polling there. We have the Hispanic shift towards being more swing voters. It looks very gettable. And...
One that you haven't heard as much is North Carolina. It was always baked into the math that it was a given. Yeah, it was. Because... Or at least we would only lose it if we were losing really bad. But remember, it was a Trump win in 2020. It was. Where Georgia, Arizona were not. Yes. Now, but keep in mind, in...
2008, North Carolina did vote for Obama and Georgia did not. So did Indiana. Yes, exactly. Georgia voted for Romney, but it was tight. It was very close, yes. So we have a relatively recent history of North Carolina being a bit more blue than Georgia. They are different states. Georgia has a higher black population, which...
Whereas North Carolina has much more of like that educated white voter population. And so it makes the races a little bit different. There's more swing voters in North Carolina. Georgia is much more a turnout race between two sides.
And anyway, so that's all set up. It's generally being considered like it's not that Trump is guaranteed was guaranteed to win North Carolina. It's that North Carolina was very unlikely to be the decisive state. It's if we lost it, we were losing everything and we were getting killed. And if we were winning, of course, it's going to be in our column.
And what started to shift is, hopefully thanks to some of our work, is like Arizona, one of the more likely decisive states, is looking pretty strong for us. No guarantees. No guarantees, of course. Got to chase ballots. But it is the strongest of the belt, the Sun Belt. Exactly. You were seeing a lot of fixation on especially Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, because if Trump wins all three of those, in fact, if Trump just flipped back,
Pennsylvania and Georgia and everything else was the same he'd win so you were seeing a lot of focus on those states as the most decisive ones and what you're starting to see now is there's new polling in North Carolina that's showing it closer than several of those states are to Kamala's advantage so and it's a trend over multiple weeks exactly and you and I have been joking in text messages hey what's going on in North Carolina yeah so like for example when uh
Biden withdrew from the race. Trump was up about six points in the state. Early polling there, I think, I'm looking at the real politics trend. In late July, the first Kamala polling, Trump was still up six. And then in August, he's up four.
And then in like late August, he's up about one and a half. And now it's a dead heat. We have a new poll from the New York Times, Sienna, which has Trump up two, which is good. But that's actually he's up five in Arizona and four in Georgia in the same set of polls. So we're looking at we're more likely to lose North Carolina than Arizona or Georgia, which
And that's annoying because, for example, that scenario we mentioned, if we get Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and no other states flip, we win. If we flip Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, but lose North Carolina, Kamala Harris wins. Now, North Carolina has some very important characteristics. It has a lot of out-of-staters that are moving into state. It has a black population, a significant one.
It's a southern state, but it also has that research triangle that is one of the fastest growing parts of the country. Exactly. It's a very eclectic state. It captures a lot of trends going on in the U.S. So, yeah, it has that old southern vibe. It was like a former Confederate state. Basically Kentucky. Exactly. Has Kentucky elements. But then it has, of course, as you say, research triangle, very rapidly growing urban area, lots of educated voters, lots of people from all around the U.S. and lots of
immigrant arrivals and then it also has you know that thing you have every state has one it has like Asheville which is that trendy city for hipsters to move to so you have your little Portland in Appalachia to hang out on you know old Vanderbilt tromping grounds and
And so it's got all these unpredictable facets to it. The Biltmore, right? Yeah, yeah. And then it's always just it's always been a competitive state. They have a Democrat. They have it's very schizo state, too. They have a Democrat governor who's popular and they have a Republican supermajority in the legislature. So they can override his vetoes to pass legislation. But they still have a Democrat governor.
And that is the other topic we have to mention in regards to this. A reason it's looking less secure right now is, unfortunately, our gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina has not been very well. Let's dive right into this. So we've had Mark Robinson on the show. Mark Robinson is the sitting lieutenant governor of the state, and he's not doing well. He is not. Why?
So, obviously, they're always going to bring out dirt on you in any campaign. The dirt they have brought out against him has been...
more damaging than most of it. And they, they, you know, they shepherded it well, they waited until the last minute, I believe I was reading somewhere that the deadline to drop out from a North Carolina race was I think, last Friday. And so about three hours before that, they drop on CNN, this big article. And what they did is, I apologize, this is a little graphic, but they basically dug up comments that they say,
I think pretty convincingly are an account he had on a pornographic website. And he was making a lot of really over the top vulgar remarks about, you know, wild sex acts. And he said strange things like bring back slavery. And he does deny it, but people aren't believing that. Yeah. And basically, and I think he's had, he's had a lot of members of his campaign quit. So, and he was already down. This is, he was not,
It is a popular Democrat governor. It was going to be tough to flip it back, even with a strong candidate. But he's been having a rough time, and it's starting to get to the point where he's down enough...
you start to worry, is this dragging down the entire campaign in North Carolina? It's making people demotivated. That can hurt turnout. And of course now all of the Kamlo people are getting motivated like, hey, this could be our saving throw even if we screw up the Rust Belt, even if we screw up Arizona, Nevada, this could bail us out. So I wanted to lead with this. And by the way, no, I do not work for NPR. And this is not a smooth jazz late night radio station. No.
A lot of people are emailing me, Charlie, are you auditioning for a job at National Public Radio? Hardly. We're going to defund. We want to win. We want to win and then we will defund NPR. Exactly. That's, no. But the reason that we wanted to lead with North Carolina, Blake, is that according to a couple sources I have in the national media, they're saying that Kamala is going all in on North Carolina and that we'll show you the map.
She believes this is her path to the White House. This is one of the paths to the White House. We had another one, I think. This would be a Kamala victory. This would be winning Georgia. This would be winning Pennsylvania. The one we're showing has us winning Georgia, but there's another one. I know that. No, no. And that's what I'm saying. I'm saying we'd lose the White House. This would be us winning Georgia, winning Pennsylvania, winning Arizona, and losing the White House. Oh, yes, yes. Because if you lose Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada...
She wins. Yep. And another one we had, I think is, let's say we won Wisconsin and Nevada, but also lost Georgia. That's another one that we lose. Yeah. So I'm going to do this in my own very calm way today. This is a five alarm fire. If you're looking at the broader map, everybody, and I'm not trying to make you panic or freak out. I'm trying to tell you that no one was thinking about North Carolina. North Carolina seemed to be as if it was
Rock solid, yes. Can you mention that, Blake? Yeah, so just to put our money where our mouth is, we've added some North Carolinas. Yeah, we're making multiple appearances in North Carolina to help shore things up there. That was added to our schedule because we care about winning. And you have to follow where the data's going.
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I feel the same kind of energy with North Carolina for how they're really emphasizing North Carolina. Let's go through the state. I think it's very important. The rurals are as red as Kentucky, but you have Charlotte, you have Raleigh, you have Greensboro and Winston-Salem that are some of the more metropolitan centers of the South. We've seen this trend where Atlanta, Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, they are becoming more
Southern versions of northern states, northern cities. Talk about that, Blake. Yeah, exactly. And it's all it's not even so much how left or right the individual cities are. It's kind of just how big they are. So in Tennessee, Nashville is pretty is very blue. Memphis is very blue, but they don't just dominate the state.
the way that Atlanta dominates Georgia. Atlanta's a huge city. And then in North Carolina, yeah, you have the Research Triangle. So you have a lot of medium-sized cities. Yeah, you have Charlotte. And a ton of universities. And a ton of universities. It's 118 universities in the state of North Carolina. So it's definitely probably really the higher education superpower of the South. Correct. Duke is there. It's like the Massachusetts equivalent of the South.
Yeah, like Duke is there. UNC is probably the most prestigious university and public university in the South. All that's there. Sorry to anyone who supports a different school there. But and yeah, as you say, it is extremely red in like the Appalachian Mountain areas. There are counties where you're breaking 70 percent, 75 percent. I'm not sure if any broke 80, but there's probably one or two that did. And.
You have a lot of that, and that's enough to keep it very close. In fact, it's enough for us to win it most of the time. But these cities are getting bluer, and they're that sort of voter who just...
We've struggled with those voters, and there's been a realignment of those voters away from us, those post-graduate degree holders who don't like Trump because he's really rude, and you can't vote for that rude man Trump. Yeah, and if Trump wins North Carolina, he'll have to run up the score in the Wilmingtons, the Fayettevilles. Let's speak about this too, Blake. And Blake, you call it as it is. You're not an apologist for Trump, but we have to also look at the data. There is this belief. They say, oh, you know, if we just had...
So...
The support for that would be that there's definitely Senate races in the past where Trump has run behind some candidates. So, for example, Marco Rubio wins really easily in 2016 in Florida. Trump wins it not quite as much. Ron Johnson wins surprisingly easily in Wisconsin in 2016. Trump narrowly wins Wisconsin as part of his upset win. Of course, those are incumbent senators, and there's usually some advantage to incumbency there.
And also like the House, we were a little bit stronger in the House popular vote than we were in 2020 than Trump was. On the flip side, though, I think it's very clear there is this turnout aspect to Trump that changes the race. And so it actually is a genuinely hard thing to measure.
The effect that Trump is having where it's sort of I think it's very plausible to say Trump could run behind a Republican in a state. And yet his overall impact on the race is to power up Republicans because he changed the turnout, changed the overall nature of the national polling, stuff like that. Now, more recently in this election.
he's running ahead as a challenger over several of our other challenges. Significantly. Significantly. He's, I mean, he's pulling way ahead of our governor in North Carolina. He's running ahead of Carrie Lake and Arizona Senate race. He's running ahead of, uh,
The Montana Senate race. Sam Brown. Yep. And Ohio is going to be closer in the Senate than it's going to be in the general election. And we have plenty of cases of that. And so I think it's clear that Donald Trump is running ahead of a lot of other Republican challengers this cycle. And.
I also just frankly think it's bogus to think like, oh yeah, if we just ran Nikki Haley, this would be a walkover. Well, no, because we've had eight years of a bunch of conservatives learning to dislike all the special things about Nikki Haley that she wants to bomb Russia or whatever.
And also a lot of that premise is like, oh, surely the media would be so much nicer to Nikki Haley. No, like we're adults here. Like, do people still fall for this? That, oh, if we run a different Republican, the media won't call them a Nazi. Come on, get over yourselves.
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I listen to them all the time. You can find them on all major podcast platforms with more than 2 million downloads. The Hillsdale College Podcast Network is one of the many ways my friends at Hillsdale are defending liberty on the battlefield education. Find your new favorite podcast today on the Hillsdale College Podcast Network. Go to charlieforhillsdale.com. That is charlieforhillsdale.com. Charlie F-O-R Hillsdale.com. Let me ask you, Mark Robinson does not have a great chance of winning in North Carolina at all. Should he drop out?
Well, for the greater good of Trump's chances to win the presidency. Well, what's unfortunate is I think he's basically – it's too late to actually pull him off now. I guess you could in theory have him run and say he – they would have – slot someone else in or something even if he officially won. But –
It is very hard at this point. Trump campaign has said they're not dropping him. I think that's, you know, that's on brand for Trump. Trump is not really big on disavowals of people he's spoken in support of.
So it's hard to say what the right strategy is at this point. I guess you could say if you just bulldoze ahead and say it's all a lie. And I think that the best solution is prioritize and help whatever helps Trump. You need to losing the governor's race. We've had a Democrat governor there for quite some time. We got to win the presidency. Joining us now is Tyler Boyer, who is the chief operational officer of Turning Point Action.
Tyler, my voice is doing a little bit better, better than it was a couple days ago. Tyler, I'm going to let you do the talking. I believe you're in Wisconsin, if I'm not mistaken. Give us an update of our ballot-chasing army. What's going on, Tyler? Hey, Charlie. Yeah, we're doing good here in Wisconsin. It's been a tough hill to climb here, but I think we've done it in Arizona, Wisconsin, of putting enough people out into the field.
And just as a reminder for those that are joining kind of new to this is Turning Point Action has endeavored on this ballot chasing initiative, which has put more people out to the field, getting out more of our votes. And this is where the left has been really good. They know they can win any close race by putting out, getting out more low propensity voters, which means people who are less likely to vote. And
And that's who they target. They spend all their time and energy and focus on those less likely voters. And so that's what we're doing. That's where we're at right now in Wisconsin. We're working to lift Arizona. We're working to lift the low propensity vote and get out our people into the field and make sure that we're turning out the adequate number of votes. And that's going to be the name of the game.
In North Carolina and other places as well. I have several questions. Tyler, walk us through the timeline. When does voting begin in the battleground states? So it's different everywhere. So right now, you know, we're getting prepared for Arizona because the early voting starts on October 9th. So Arizona is coming right up here in the next few weeks. And Wisconsin has technically started early.
However, unlike Arizona that basically does everything all at the same time across the entire state, Wisconsin is county by county. So each county gets to decide when they really start that early voting process. So Wisconsin, you have some early ballots that have gone out in some counties and then in other counties, you won't until maybe up till two weeks before the election.
So it's really a tricky thing because there's not a historical precedent for early balloting here in Wisconsin. But in Arizona, you've had that going on for almost three decades now of people prepared to send in their early ballot and then now voting early at an early polling location. That is happening starting October 9th. So if you're in Wisconsin, it's
It's starting now that joins the likes of Pennsylvania that are out, you know, starting their voting. And then in Arizona, it's October 9th. And since we talked about it, North Carolina, we've mentioned it's starting tomorrow. That is absentee ballots being mailed out. In-person early voting for North Carolina starts on October 17th. And then you have a couple of weeks of it. And then, you know, the shutdown, the election. So we've been talking about that state.
All of you patriots in North Carolina, vote early in person. Get your friends to vote early in person. And a thing we always emphasize, ask the people in your life that you think you don't need to ask, the people who have the Trump flag, the people who are wearing MAGA gear, the people who are going to rallies. Ask them, are you registered? Ask them, have you voted yet? And you'll be surprised the number of times that the answer is no, all the way to the point of I don't vote.
And it's your job to get those people out to vote. Have them go to the polling place with you. Drive them there. Have a party with your friends like before, you know, one of the football games if they have Saturday voting. Just go do it.
Yeah. And Tyler, you have a thought? I was going to say make a plan to vote. That's what we're we're producing over here at Turning Point Action. But to your point, Blake, a third of men just won't vote. They'll either forget to vote or they're unregistered. So, you know, in many states you have up until election day to register to vote still. Arizona, you do not. Arizona, you have to register before October 7th.
but you can vote, you can register in person in Wisconsin and vote that same day at the polling place on November 5th, but a third of men. So you're, you're looking at this and going, you know, this election could come down to very simply, just like you said, the people we know that we go to church with that aren't our family who fully intend to vote, who fully think that they're regular voters, but just for whatever reason, forget that.
And that is a huge amount of voters that we have to make sure turn out. Huge amount. The man in your life, your family member, your grandparent, in particular senior citizens, are always at a disadvantage to voting because they're incapacitated or they forget. Young people who are brand new,
Every single person you know that intends to vote, you have to follow up with and make sure that they do. So Tyler, we were talking about North Carolina and how there's some issues there. What can we do to ensure that we win North Carolina?
Well, I mean, this is the big deal that we've done at Turning Point Action. We have a wonderful team that's on the ground in North Carolina that are working hard. We're doing two different things that you can do right away. One, our Commit 100 program can aid things in the swing states. That's tdpaction.com slash 100.
We also have our Super Chase events. So these are like Super Saturday style events that we're doing every day during the election period. Our team is going to be doing dozens of these in North Carolina. You can go to tpaction.com slash Super Chase, and they'll walk you through getting the app downloaded and then how to contact voters, which is just reminding low propensity Republicans to vote. And you yourself don't even need to wait for that. You can go download the Turning Point Action application today and
tap the arrow on the top left-hand corner, and then input your cell phone number, and boom, you can start knocking doors in your own neighborhood. And that's what we ask, is that everybody just start doing knocking doors in your neighborhood. If you're in North Carolina,
You need to be talking to your entire neighborhood more than ever because of the attacks that we're seeing happen in North Carolina, both on Trump and Mark Robinson. So this is the imperative, imperative, imperative work that we have to do in order to win is tpaction.com slash app.
tpaction.com slash 100. Help us chase ballots. So Tyler, let's get into the parts of the states that are going to matter. Wisconsin, walk us through the state of Wisconsin. What counties is Turning Point Action most focused on? Yeah, where I'm sitting right now, Waukesha County is probably the most critical place in all of Wisconsin. And it really comes down to where the Republican votes are.
So Milwaukee, Milwaukee is a blue county, but because it's this inner city, but you have also conservative parts of Milwaukee County, places that haven't shown up as much. So West Allis, Wauwatosa, which is on the western side of Milwaukee County. And then, you know, that blends right into Waukesha, where this is very suburban, urban.
beautiful neighborhoods, people flying Trump flags everywhere, but there's literally tens of thousands of votes. You have, you know, in Milwaukee County alone, a hundred thousand plus Republicans who just don't vote. You have close to that here in Waukesha on the North side of, of Milwaukee County and North shore towards Ozaukee County, you have lots of people. So yeah,
The more that you get that done, getting out the vote in those areas, the more likely you are to win Wisconsin, because that's your that's our number one impact places, the places that have the most Republicans that just aren't showing up to vote. Yeah, exactly. Do you have a similar analysis for Wisconsin?
for Pennsylvania and Michigan as well? Yeah, so we've done a full analysis of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Our focus at 30-Point Action has been Arizona, Wisconsin. And really, Blake, this is how we're looking at the election at this point, which is there's six states that matter, and you can throw North Carolina in there as seventh, but we really need to win North Carolina no matter what. But the six states are Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan.
Well, Michigan, you know, I don't have a ton of, a ton of faith in every single day because you have some of the worst election laws in the country. So, you know, it's not, you know, Michigan's looking good, but Republicans have to show up in a big way in the suburbs, very similar to Wisconsin. You have suburban Detroit that is, that is the most critical. You have a congressional district that goes up where the Capitol is and
East Lansing and Lansing that Elise Slotkin was the congresswoman, but it's a plus one or two Republican congressional area. So you have some areas there that if you turn out suburban votes, you
you win. You look at Pennsylvania, it's kind of the same thing where it's like the rurals could determine Pennsylvania. It's a, are they going to turn out to vote? That's why the work that our team's doing, Noah Formica is on the show all the time. You have Scott Pressler, who's living there. You have Cliff Maloney's group, PHA.com. They're doing incredible work, you know, doing exactly what we're doing, which is identifying those new voters, identifying the people who don't vote and then going out and chasing the ballots.
And so our focus, though, is down to the four states that I think are going to matter the most. So you have Pennsylvania and Georgia, which is really the campaign strategy, which is if you win Pennsylvania and Georgia, you win this thing out, right? So it makes a lot of sense. Georgia is tilting our way. Pennsylvania seems to be tilting our way.
That's it. The backup plan really is Arizona, Wisconsin. So if you lose Pennsylvania, you pretty much, you have to win Arizona. You have to win Arizona. But then you have to pick off something else. And the next best state to pick off that has enough Electoral College votes is Wisconsin.
So that's really the four-state strategy at this point that's out there is you have the campaign strategy, which is front lines, it's Pennsylvania, Georgia, East Coast, win the thing early in the night. But your backup plan is Wisconsin, Arizona, and that's where we're doing the most work.
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Let's talk about the importance or the worst arguments that you hear about people saying, I don't have time to vote. Oh, man.
I feel like they usually won't say, I don't have time to vote. You'll hear a lot of, I don't vote because it's all rigged, it's all fraud. Well, if it is, someone should tell the Democrats because they spend a huge amount of money and a huge amount of time and a huge amount of effort on this. So they certainly are not acting like they're just rigging it all in an hour at midnight on election night. And...
I feel like that's honestly the biggest one. And then you hear a lot of just very, like very confident, like it's almost insulting to them to say, like, I don't need to vote early because I'll vote on Election Day no matter what happens. And it's like, no, it is not no matter what happens. There are things that will happen. If your child is in the hospital, you are probably not going to vote. You are going to be busy. Correct. And that's OK. That's good. You should care about your children. So vote early. I'm voting early just for that reason. You never know what's going to happen. Tyler.
Is this a persuasion election or a turnout election? And explain both terms. This is a turnout election, Charlie. And it's really simple. So you'll hear both those terms used. Persuasion elections are typically a lower turnout election. So your midterm elections, you have to persuade people to like your candidates because typically not as many people turn out. When it's high turnout and it's pretty clear who the candidates are and what they stand for, aka presidential elections,
turnout elections are everything. And there's not a lot of gray area between Kamala Harris, who's a socialist, and Donald Trump, who everybody knows and has served four years already as president. So for that reason, there's not a lot of persuasion that needs to happen. It's just finding the right voters and turning out those right voters. So that's what we're in the midst of right now and doing is
is looking and saying, okay, well, who are the people who are almost certainly Republican, so therefore more likely to support Donald Trump, you know, either begrudgingly or because they love Trump, which, you know, I would say 90% of the party actually is pretty in love with Trump and what he stood for and what he did this last election cycle. 10% are,
you know, listen, probably watch a little bit too much media and too much CNN or things like that. But, you know, those are the people that we have to try to get out. And if you turn out those people at a higher, at a higher rate than the left does, then you win. And this is really what the, the gospel has been that we've been preaching to people is like, Hey guys, you know,
We're not losing elections because we don't have as much excitement. We have more excitement in a lot of these places, but we're losing just barely because the left is just targeting more people, putting more bodies on the ground to basically be a concierge at the door for people who just don't typically vote. Yeah. And so if you do...
Yeah, Tyler. And just a thing we've emphasized over the summer that polling has shown, and this was stronger with Biden still in the race, but it still is in play with Kamala, is that the evidence does show compared even to 2016 and 2020, Trump is stronger with, as we say, low propensity voters. So he's doing a little better with young people than he used to do. He's doing a little better with black voters, a little better with Hispanic voters. Those are all groups that are less likely to turn out to vote.
And historically, they've been very Democrat now and also lower income, lower turnout white voters. Trump is doing better with all of those groups. And so, I mean, in the New York Times itself in July said, does Biden benefit from a high turnout election? And it's like not anymore, because when you have high turnout, you're getting out more low propensity voters. And those are now a group that leans actually somewhat leans towards Trump now.
And all the evidence is this will be a lower turnout election than 2020. There's not all the COVID shenanigans that make it... All the intensity that made it so high turnout. You don't have all the stuff... It might even be lower turnout than 2016, maybe. And if that's the case...
That might be bad for us, and that's also what makes this a turnout race. This is going to be who gets a higher percent of the people they had in 2020 back into the ballot box. And I think there's a lot of reason to think it could be us. I think there's a lot of excitement around Trump. There's a lot more public ability to support Trump. But...
We have to get those people to put their ballot, their piece of paper into the box. Well, and Blake, I was just going to piggyback on that and just say there's evidence to believe that like the lower turnout election is going to hurt them more because our our base, again, is is a little bit more electric for Trump because almost kind of an unknown election.
So the lower turnout indicators that we're seeing in Pennsylvania and some other places that have already hit into balloting for the Democrats, including early ballot requests, is a really strong indicator for us. And we just have to execute now. We have to get our people out. Great work, Tyler. Thank you. Thanks so much for listening. Everybody email us as always. Freedom at Charlie Kirk dot com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to Charlie Kirk dot com.
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We sisters have eyes and ears. Top critics are raving. Conclave is hands down the best picture of the year. I had to find the truth. Conclave. Rated PG. Parental guidance suggested. Now playing only in theaters.