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I'm David Plouffe. And I'm Kellyanne Conway. Welcome to this episode of The Campaign Managers. Well, Kellyanne, so much has happened in the last week. Maybe not as much as happened in the prior two weeks. You say that every week, David, but yes, you're right. It is. I mean, I've had people just like in life say, well, there can't be any more surprises. I'm like, I wouldn't count on that. You know, generally these things happen in bunches. So let, you know, I'm curious to get your take on just where the race stands. I
You and I and then the list of Master Monaco. It was just after Joe Biden decided not to run. Kamala Harris was consolidating the party. She's now fully done that. I think you as a pollster would agree with this, like we should not get too overly excited about the polls that have come out in the last few days. But it does seem that we've seen a few things worth mentioning. One, I think interest in the election generally is up.
Certainly, Democratic enthusiasm is up. It's been up for Trump. You know, at higher levels, the entire campaign, it's risen now for Harris. I do think that it's likely you and I have talked that where the race stood, let's say, 10 days ago was there was a question whether North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada would be battleground states.
I think a candidate like Kamala Harris probably puts those back in play. I still think the other three, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, probably sure. Well, nothing's a sure bet in this election, but probably closer. But I think that's important because you want as many shots on goal as possible. And I don't know whether we're going to debate. I'd love to get your thought on that. You know, Donald Trump very well. Last debate worked out really well for him. He's saying he's not sure he'll do the debate on September 10th. You know, my sense is
By the end of August, whichever candidate most needs the debate will be certainly angling to do not just one, but multiple. But it does seem like we have a race that kind of reminds me where we were, you know, maybe pre-debate, maybe a little bit further than that, where it's tightened up. And the differences, I think, are Democratic enthusiasm is up. And Kamala Harris, obviously, I think, has had a good first week.
But obviously, the attacks are starting to come. And so, so much of a presidential campaign is how you weather them. But I'm curious, because you mentioned in our last episode, what matters is in a campaign, in part, is how you adapt to changing circumstances. And obviously, when Donald Trump started running, he did not have this on his dance card. One day you wake up, you're running against Joe Biden. The next day, it's Kamala Harris. What's your sense of how they're adapting to this change? And just generally, kind of your take on where the race is?
Well, thanks, David. I do feel like we say every week it was a big news week, but it's true. And it was a transformative week in the news because, as you say, Kamala Harris became, for all intents and purposes, the Democratic nominee. She'll accept the nomination officially next month at the convention in Chicago. But she has consolidated support among people who not that long ago had very little confidence in her competence and would say so sometimes in blind quotes.
often enough to each other and really reflected in the fact that they didn't move Joe Biden out earlier, that they let him run for reelection full well knowing that he is not the same Joe Biden, as many of them who are around him I'm not say. I do have two eyes, but he's not the same Joe Biden. They were afraid, a lot of Democrats were afraid she would ever be president, and it didn't seem that any world leader would be afraid she'd be president, maybe Netanyahu for good reason. But now that's all changed.
Now it's, there's this new surge of support for Kamala Harris. It's as if she never had a record. She was hatched on that day. We don't know her. She wasn't the second half of the Biden Harris record on the border, on inflation, the economy, two new wars abroad, a crime going up in lots of our cities. I mean, she has waged basically a war on police to fund them, don't defend them. So I think she will be held to account after this honeymoon period because
for her record, and she ought to be. I think that her raising $200 million, her gathering 174,000 new volunteers,
are getting, I thought it was like 2,500 or so precinct captains or activists that can actually be on the ground helping. That ain't nothing, pal. And it's actually a big deal in politics because as I often say, David Plouffe, you need those accoutrements, you need the non-sexy parts of politics. The money's great, but you need a lot of time and talent, not just the treasure on the ground. She's starting to get that. In some ways, Paris benefits from saying two things.
To Democratic donors and elected officials and practitioners, she's saying, and maybe some rank and file, she's saying, I'm not Joe Biden. Which honestly is a terrible thing for her to say. It's a little ungrateful since he gave her a big shot to be VP. But she's basically giving them, I'm not Biden. So the money spigots are back on. People are excited. The other thing she's saying is, I'm not Trump.
And so I think for those who are attracted to either of those very simple, overgeneralized, but compelling arguments or just statements, I'm not Joe Biden, I'm not Donald Trump, that's going to bring in a groundswell of some voters who were double doubters or who were so demoralized that Joe Biden was still the nominee, they weren't going to vote, etc.,
I saw some quotes even just this week, David, that suggested many Democrats, even those around Kamala Harris or those who advise the vice president, you know, either formally or informally, that she knows it's a sugar high. It's going to pass. You know, these are the best days. That often happens to candidates. Your best days are your first days. I think her best days of her actual presidential campaign in 2019 were the first days of
She launched a campaign in 2019 like none other. She had 12,000 people in Oakland. She raised a ton of money. She got some really key endorsements.
And then she started to fall off out of the top three and ended up with zero delegates. It'll be different this time. And I think she's making a play, obviously, for history, but for the first woman of color. Barack Obama, President Obama endorsing her is huge. I imagine he will try to pick off many of the young African-American men, if not Hispanic men, who have migrated towards President Trump based on his policies.
And I believe that the endorsement from Michelle Obama, former first lady, is meant to help with some female constituencies. But as you know, David, every candidate has to run his or her own race. So I want those debates. I think we deserve to see the two candidates next to each other in our great democracy. They should be answering each other's questions. They should be answering the moderator's questions. They should be answering America's questions. So can I ask you? Yeah. I want to say one really quick thing.
I think she's a fresh face for the conscientious objectors who didn't want a Trump-Biden rematch. I'm not sure any of them were really Republican to begin with, or most of them, but she's a fierce opponent who will say whatever, no matter how nasty, to Donald Trump's face.
I think her negatives are the lack of, you know, the staffers turning on her, shedding about over two dozen staffers in the White House. These should be dream jobs. I think the electoral map has changed a bit. Biden was going to compete in those whiter states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. She wants to make Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada more competitive. But I also think that
I think that she's welcoming back some of the core constituencies for the Democratic coalition that had been fraying and not staying. We'll see if she picks her VP. We'll see how she does in the glare of the spotlight at the convention. We'll see her in the debate, certainly. And I think that President Trump's campaign to all of this, the response has been nothing really changed because Harris is just like Biden, only worse.
Only more socialist, more progressive, more liberal, more radical. Here's her record. She's borders are she's failed there. She said nothing on inflation supply chain shock at the time. She said nothing to help in the wars in Ukraine and Israel. She said nothing to apologize to. And we're generously resource and we're deeply respect our police, law enforcement, border, border patrol, et cetera. So the question is Kamala Harris, her moment is,
And her myth or Kamala Harris, the person who has a record and perhaps quote a vision that might be at odds. One last thing, David, I know I said this, got to get this out of our podcast. There's a new gender gap in American politics. We've been talking for decades. My first assignment, $8 an hour with Dick Worthland 36 years ago was the gender gap. David, there is a gender gap for Republicans among women, certainly, but there's a big gender gap.
for kamala harris among men right now emerson came out with their swing state polls
Among men, Arizona, Trump plus 13. Georgia, Trump plus 10. Michigan, Trump plus 16. Among men, Pennsylvania, Trump plus 15. Among men, Wisconsin, Trump plus 13. Among men, among women voters in Arizona, Harris plus one. Georgia, Harris plus four. Michigan, Harris plus 12. Pennsylvania, Harris plus nine. Among women, Wisconsin, Harris plus 12. Among women. So I think we have to be dutiful here and instruct women.
Our listeners that there is a double gender gap going on right now. Wall Street Journal had a piece on the front page this week called the growing political divide between young men and young women. And I really have my eyes on that. I'm sure you do. Yeah, no, it's there. There's that dynamic. I think we've paid attention for a while about the education divide driving our politics. This one, I think, has emerged recently.
more quickly, but we're seeing how pronounced it is. So a few things, you know, one, I just, in response to some of the thoughts on common, one, yeah, she's had some staff turmoil, Donald Trump. Now you're not in this category, but we've had dozens of senior staff and cabinet members saying they can't support Trump. That seems relevant given that they served with him as president. Two, I think that the only candidate that hasn't lost a race, I think,
whose run for president was George W. Bush. Now, Trump had 21, but then he lost in 20s running again. Obviously, Barack Obama, God, he lost a congressional race to Bobby Rush, Bill Clinton lost. So, you know, history is sometimes, you know, people who ascend to the greatest stage.
They fumble a race along the way, and there's no doubt, you know, her AG races were and prosecutor races were much stronger than that one. I think she struggled. I do think that she's going to be much more comfortable in this general election talking about some of her accomplishments as a prosecutor and AG. And listen, the Biden-Harris ticket in 20, I think, stood apart from many on the Democratic left against things like defund the police. So that'll be the campaign within the campaign that'll happen. I am curious, first on debates.
That I would have completely understood. I would have been sad. I think you would have been sad as a citizen if Biden stayed in the race and Donald Trump decided not to debate him. But I could have understood that strategically. This one I don't understand because I think this race is headed to a place, you know, maybe Kamala Harris has hit her ceiling for the moment, but she does have a VP convention where I think that Donald Trump is probably going to need to debate.
And he certainly doesn't like to be accused of ducking things. So I don't think he's going to like that. So we'll see. I'd love to see them debate three more times. I'd love to see the vice presidential candidates debate once. We'll get to J.D. Vance later because he's definitely worth talking about. Right now, the most unpopular vice presidential pick this soon after being picked in the history of polling.
I think Donald Trump should have followed your advice and pick somebody else. We'll talk about that. I want to ask your advice or thoughts as a practitioner, not as a Republican, because one of the things that struck me is when there was this discussion about, well, if Biden got out, Harris doesn't pull any better. Other Democrats don't pull any better. I thought that was really such like a.
a misguided, even dumb discussion because you can't capture the reality of an event, right? And what I saw is what you saw, which is I think just the, somebody new on the scene,
both for Democrats, but for some swing voters, you know, would be a pretty major event. And I think that's a hard thing to capture in a poll. I'm just curious, as you looked at that as a pollster, what you thought about that, because I thought it got a fair amount of oxygen. Well, you know, look, Biden's only down by four. Harris is only down by three. Shapiro's four. Like, there's no difference. It's like politics is dynamic.
And I thought that did, I guess it didn't really do a disservice to voters. It certainly did a disservice to the people following that. And I was just curious if you've seen other events in your career or in history where, you know, you couldn't pull something like, you know, it was like, and for a pollster, sometimes that's hard to say, but sometimes I think pollsters should say, Hey man, my numbers, I'm not sure what good they are. Yeah. Look, polling, you're absolutely right. It's known as a snapshot in time, but you actually have to have a snapshot.
to be able to capture. So it's not just the temporary nature of polling that people should remember, David, that that can change over time. We are a dynamic people, not a static people. So our politics and our governance are also meant to be dynamic, not static. But the snapshot part is important too. And until you have the photo in front of you in vivid colors, you actually can't ask people what they think about it. You're asking them to project hypothetically.
And that does have value, but the value is it's limited value, but it's also irrelevant value if and when the circumstances change.
And I think the rapid ascent for Kamala Harris of consolidating these delegates, even though the Democratic chairs of the seven swing states had just, 92 minutes earlier, had just reaffirmed their support for Joe Biden. That's embarrassing. And he had people on the Sunday show saying he's staying in.
Their rapid assent for her in fundraising, in excitement and enthusiasm, and I think fawning media coverage. And I really hope they sharpen up and get more fair and even handed. I hope they look at their old stories and press clips and tweets to just figure out how they covered her not that long ago. She was the border czar. We don't need to change her title now. She failed at that job. That will be fully litigated in this campaign. But her assent was almost proportional to Joe Biden's dissent.
And this poor guy is probably thinking, I had a bad 90 minutes, a bad night, as President Obama said right after the debate. Everybody has a bad night or a bad debate. I, President Obama, should know something about that.
This guy's like, I had 90 bad minutes in a 55-year career in Washington. They're going to throw me overboard now. I'm going to show them I'm vibrant. I'm energetic. I can do 12 campaign stops. I can speak at NATO for over an hour. I can do all these different things. It was never going to be enough because people had made a decision that was speaking to something ecstatic, not dynamic. But I think they were looking for pockets of air after drowning with Biden.
following that debate and she was the pocket of error. And then I think it sealed it with the Obama endorsement this week. Now, there are starting to be articles, New York Times, Reid Epstein, why the Kamala Harris of four years ago could haunt her in 2024. I mean, okay, people are actually saying the archive is deep. Look at all these things she said and did. The question, David, is if we don't have debates, who the heck's going to call her out on this?
I mean, the mainstream media has been terrible this past week. Even Democrats are like, what are they doing? Saying she wasn't the border czar. This Steph Niter kite at Axios wrote a story. Kamala Harris just announced as the border czar and last week said years later, she was never really the border czar. I mean, why are we doing that rather than saying, oh, the numbers are down, they're down because Biden and Harris got them so far up. I mean, we've got about 10 million people here illegally because of them.
Stop trying to tell us the economy is better because gas is two cents cheaper and bacon is on sale for $8.99 instead of $9.99. Stop lying to us the way you lied about Joe Biden's agility, ability, acuity.
and energy. We saw that you were lying. She's the tip of the spear of those who lied. She spends as much time with Joe Biden as any non-family member and didn't have the courage, integrity, love of country to say so. So there are many things I think to get her on. And we'll see her VP pick as I think they're doing too much focus grouping publicly. I think they're putting out too much
to folks right now like oh i'd pick gretchen whitmer but we can't have two women america's not ready that's weird um oh i'd pick josh shapiro maybe it'll stabilize the jewish vote because he's good on israel but gee uh maybe the hamas caucus in the democratic party won't like
a Jewish running mate? I mean, these are really tough questions going on in the Democratic Party right now. And I know she'll answer them in time, but I hope this woman ever is even asked a question about her record, about foreign policy. She said she was the last person in the room before Joe Biden decided to pull out of Afghanistan almost three years ago, almost on that anniversary. And yet she kind of disappeared. Usually you have your vice president on the Sunday shows after that. They're out there bucking you up.
She kind of disappeared after that, even though she was the last woman in the room.
So it's good to see her working harder. It's good to see her out there. I wish she had met with President Netanyahu, Prime Minister Netanyahu, pardon me, when he was here with Congress, not at a sorority party in Indiana. She did see Netanyahu. I wish she had condemned immediately. Justice Ben. Yeah, separately, days later, and then came out and started to talk about Gaza. But just really quickly, she's got to condemn faster, David, something that appalls and offends all of us.
which is this vandalism, this vileness, this violence on the Liberty Bell and limestone statues with American flags being burned outside Union Station. It's not a good look for your party. Nobody thinks they're Republican sympathizers doing this. She's got to come out and especially given her very, very
I would say questionable past with the Minnesota Freedom Fund, with police, with this, that and the other. She's not a friend of law enforcement. She sure has a heck of a lot of them around her protecting her. God bless her. She should. She's the vice president and her family. However, she's got to come out and condemn this kind of violence on the spot. What takes her so long? Who's who's developing these tweets and these statements that it takes a day to decide to condemn these crimes?
These terrorists defacing our and threatening us. Hamas is coming here, defacing our monuments and our and burning our American flag. I can't imagine anybody thinks that's a good idea. I think they've run a good campaign in the week they've been in charge. I say a few things. One, I can't wait till Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, if Donald Trump has the courage to show up to a debate, maybe multiple.
He's trying to duck this one and talk about immigration because he killed our best chance for a long-term border solution. And he's very clear why. He said, I thought it would help Joe Biden. Like that is the most nakedly politically irresponsible statement maybe he's made, which is saying something. Number two, I do think this prosecutor felon frame is a very good frame. And I think we'll see it in ads. I think we'll see it on the debate stage. And I think, you know, this is someone who has spent years
years, decades working with law enforcement to crack down on violent criminals, on corporate greed, on sexual abusers. As Kamala Harris said, you know, she knows Donald Trump's type because she's gone after them. But I think at the end of the day, the Trump campaign, I know they're saying, well, this is the same race. I think they've been slow. You just said the Harris like slow.
to do a couple of things. One, you know, to really, they're starting to run ads. You and I have talked, I don't think ads matter as much in presidential races as they do in other races, but they're still important. So they're starting to run ads. We'll see. But Trump, again, I think has had a pretty, pretty sleepy schedule. I think that'll have to intensify. I think Kamala Harris will end up spending all the time in the battlegrounds. What strikes me is the Donald Trump of 16 in the campaign you run was hustling out there.
in August. He was in battleground states. He actually had a more active schedule than Hillary Clinton did, if I recall. And so I don't think he's taken every opportunity to kind of think this is a different race. What am I going to do?
And then, of course, we want to talk about vice presidents, J.D. Vance. And again, you counseled Donald Trump to go elsewhere. Many did. He listened to his two sons. And I want to be careful in assessing the import here just because we know historically VPs don't drive a lot of vote. But J.D. Vance in a world of social media is kind of the worst case scenario, not just in terms of his statements he might have made last year or the year before, year after. He's kind of doubling down on stuff that's offensive to people.
people. And listen, Donald Trump is the oldest major party nominee in history. So people are going to pay attention to, you know, would I want to live in a world with J.D. Vance as president? So I Donald Trump's not going to dump him. He's stuck with him. It'll be interesting to read Trump's body language and what he says, how effusive he is. But J.D. Vance is a problem. And what's fascinating to me is in 16, Trump clearly made not a choice based on sizzle for the campaign or someone who was like full on MAGA.
You know, Mike Pence was very conservative governor, but I think that was a smart choice. People like serious guy could help him govern. And so this time he went the other direction when he had people like Glenn Youngkin and Doug Burgum. And I think it's going to be a choice he grows to regret. Now, I don't think Kamala Harris or his camp, her campaign have not out there been talking about their choices. I think other Democrats are saying, well, what about Shapiro? What about Cooper? What about Whitmer? I think they've played it very close to the vest.
It is fascinating. You and I have both been through this. This is like speed dating on steroids. Like she's going to have to pick somebody with not a full vet. Yes, she knows some of these people, but you're not going to have the intensive conversations you normally have. So there's going to be a degree of risk there. But I think at the end of the day, the Vance thing has not gone well for Trump so far.
I think so. You got to look at it. Can Kamala Harris avoid that and have somebody who 10 days, two weeks after the pick is, you know, beloved in your party? Because clearly a lot of Republicans are unhappy with Dan so far. But then, too, doesn't do you damage with swing voters? Now, the most important thing, as you and I both know, is to be a governing partner if you win. But in the campaign, the most important thing is that debate.
And so that's Vance's chance, I think, to kind of steady the ship is to have a good debate. And if he has a really good debate, I think that'll settle down people's concern about him. But if he doesn't, I think that's definitely going to be a drag. And you know, Trump, I don't know Trump, but I got to think this is really annoying the hell out of him that his pick is getting criticized and is getting a fair amount of attention for stuff that's not just beating up Kamala Harris, which is kind of what you want your running mate to do. Raise money, have a good debate.
Go off Broadway, do all the smaller markets and then tattoo your opponent every day. And J.D. Vance, I think largely has not been able to get out of his own way. And, you know, you're proven right. I'm sure you're a loyal soldier and think you'll figure out a way to steady the ship. But what is interesting to me is Trump had better options and there were good options. Like I was a little bit worried about Youngkin.
that he would be a really, really smart pick. Burgum too. And so it's curious to me that he went all in on Vance. And so far, the returns, I think, are pretty pathetic. Well, let me say something. Just as Kamala Harris is new as the Democratic nominee or would-be nominee, J.D. Vance is new to the trail. Everybody expected that there would be this flurry of negative attention, no matter who Donald Trump picked. Let me make that very clear.
He could pick Santa Claus, Jesus Christ, or the Pope, and people would have found criticism of that person. So I think no one knows that better than President Trump. He knows what it's like to be criticized for words you're saying in real time, words you're thinking of saying tomorrow or next week, words you said 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 10 minutes ago. He knows that firsthand, so he understands the way the rules of this are. In terms of J.D. Vance, the idea of choosing him, as President Trump has explained and others have explained,
is that he would help President Trump win some of those Rust Belt and upper Midwest states since he's a senator from Ohio. President Trump is quoted as saying, I'm going to park him in Pennsylvania for a bit. I think that does force Kamala Harris to take another look at Josh Shapiro or a deeper look if she's not already.
But it's not just Pennsylvania. It is the Wisconsin, the Michigan. And those just became less competitive for the Democrats presidentially because you have Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. So let's let Vance go out there on his own, do some of his own TV interviews, answer for some of his own words.
But we've got a lot of tape to run about Kamala Harris. And that we haven't even scratched the surface on that. The other thing about J.D. Vance is I think he represents his life story, represents, and everybody can watch and read Hillbilly Elegy. I've done both. They're very moving. J.D. Vance's life story represents life.
The growth of the Republican Party, people who were told for years, if you're oppressed, if you're poor, if nobody's looking out for you, the Democrats are looking out for you, we're for you. And they finally figured out, you helped create this and keep us down. You sent our wealth and our jobs overseas. There's a report just today that factory output
is at a slower pace. The post-COVID factory boom is running out of steam. Companies are laying off cutting production. That hurts the kinds of people that J.D. Vance grew up around, and everyone knows it. And the other argument is that the American dream for him has been to go from poverty and a drug-addled mom. She doesn't mind us saying it because there she was at the convention, and God bless her, she'll be 10 years sober in January. That's huge for anyone. And goes from there to Yale Law School.
And I think that is like the arc of his American dream. So there's a lot there that I think when the story is finally told and he can dig out of, you know, what was expected to be a flurry of negative attention, they try every single time. I mean, anybody who President Trump picked would be suffering that.
And I think it would be good, it would be imperative for J.D. Vance to be in a debate, but even to have some town halls before that or go, you know, where he really shines. I've had this conversation previously with John Jr., it's true, where J.D. Vance shines is in some of these mainstream media outlets that a lot of Republicans are afraid of.
They're even afraid to enter the den. Trump used to say that about me in 2016. She's not afraid to go on any show. That's true of him. He'd go and meet the press or CNN, and he would be as good as if he was on a less liberal station. These debates are imperative, David. I think people, they're not just accustomed to seeing Trump versus Kamala Harris. They don't really know J.D. Vance or getting to know him, and they want to get to know Kamala Harris's VP pick. So this is incredibly important.
And I hope the questions are serious and substantive and about policy and not just a bunch of gotcha questions. So President Trump,
is very loyal to people. People think he's not. Usually the people who got fired for cause or quit because they couldn't take it and then write books and pretend they don't believe things that they always believed. They always say, "He's not loyal. He's not loyal." He is very loyal to people. And I think it's going to take a lot more than a couple of negative stories of something JD Vance said, particularly about President Trump, which he looks past with pretty much everyone these days, for him to change his mind on that.
But we'll see. I want Kamala Harris in the spotlight because she's the newest entrant. And I think the temporary point of President Trump or his campaign saying, well, maybe we won't debate her was for a moment. It was like, well, wait a second. This may be the Democrat process with a capital D, but the Democratic process, those of you running on democracy, democracy, democracy is on the ballot now.
You just did the most undemocratic thing imaginable. We gave over 90% of the delegates to Joe Biden. He's the nominee, and you're doing a switcheroo without consulting with the delegates who decide who the president is. So I think it's fascinating. The other thing I'm looking at, David, is I'd be very curious to get your take on what does RFK Jr. do next? He's running ads in New York City and D.C., but not the swing states. He obviously had that conversation with President Trump after former President Trump was shot and the Sun recorded it. They regretted that, but...
It was kind of revealing for its substance, which is, you know, come aboard and make this a little easier for us. Do you think Kamala Harris in the race shifts the RFK Jr. dynamic? Well, I think, yeah, it is interesting. So, I mean, you believe I don't know if Donald Trump believes this, but you certainly believe.
that the debate would be good because you want to bring Kamala Harris out onto the stage as much as possible. And I actually believe even though Donald Trump is universally known, the Harris campaign should want Donald Trump out on the stage as much as possible. So I do think that if we get to that point where, where both campaigns believe there's benefit. Now,
Now, I may be wrong because one of them may have a bad debate. Then we'll have debate and maybe more debates. I hope we have multiple debates. I think that would be incredibly important. I do think, you know, the research I've seen, you know, from the first debate suggests Donald Trump did himself no favors. Obviously, Joe Biden had a historically bad night. So that was the news.
So I don't think Donald Trump can, if he debates, can bring to that debate what he did in late June with Joe Biden. I don't think that is going to work well with voters. I think if he can be more like the first 20 minutes of his convention speech, perhaps. But I think it would be tragic. And I just think at the end of the day, if Donald Trump doesn't debate, the Harris campaign will try and make him pay full price for ducking that. And he's not going to like that. So I assume we'll have debates later.
You know, the first Biden-Trump debate, the ratings weren't as high as people thought. So I would imagine this one would be higher than that. So, you know, the stakes will be lower. I don't know. You know, the polls, Kellyanne, and again, huge grain of salt, but so far would suggest that
With Harrison Trump, RFK's vote and the other third party votes gone down, right? You've got, you know, some of these polls show battleground states like 48, 47, you know, 49, 48. I assume that
that'll settle down a little bit and open up. But I do think that, so number one, we may be heading to a race where the third party vote share is not what we might've thought two to three months ago, right? There were some polls where it was showing eight, 10, 12, 14, much different race. As you know, when you're running a campaign and you have to get to 46% of the vote versus 49, that 3% may seem not seem like a lot, but it's enormous. Um,
So that to me is number one question. Where's that going to settle in? Obviously, RFK is not going to be on the ballot everywhere in battleground states, but where he is, you know, is that going to be more like two or three or maybe even less? So I think RFK has got to decide what's he going to do here? Is he going to stick in all the way? It sounds like he's going to. Where is he going to park? I don't know why he's spending time in New York and D.C. I mean, to the extent that he wants to have an impact, I think you'd bunker in the battleground states. But, you know, the polling post-
Biden dropping out would suggest that RFK is taking a little bit more from Trump than Harris, even though it's a diminished number. Now, I've not seen the crosstabs. I haven't dug into that. So I'd love your take on that. But if that's the case, I would imagine Trump's entreaties to RFK will get more intense. Now, there's reports that when they talked, RFK was asking for Pacific Posts, which Trump, to his credit, said, no, I'm not going to
I'm not going to do a quid pro quo here. That could change, by the way, depending on where the race goes. But what's your sense of that? Like, what is happening with that third party vote right now post Biden dropping out? It is smaller. And I'm not sure it's just a Biden swapping Kamala.
for Biden phenomenon, I think it's people don't want to throw away their votes this time and that there's really no state that RFK Jr. or Cornel West or Jill Stein, the other third party candidates, David, can win. If they can, we just haven't seen it in any of the polling. We don't see it on the ground yet.
RFK Jr. particularly keeps on gaining ballot access in different states, but that hasn't amounted to him taking the lead in Michigan. I did notice something with him, though. There were a few states where he was on the ballot, a few of these battleground states where among independents, which of course are key here,
The RFK Jr. was he was still coming in third, but he was within striking distance of Biden. So we'll see if that changes. But look, I know firsthand from 2016, if you've got Jill Stein in the race, if you have RFK Jr. in the race, you have a couple of people. It's a point here, two points here, three points here. All these battleground states that have been taken since Kamala Harris became the putative Democratic nominee and they're doing Trump versus Harris are
I mean, occasionally Donald Trump's at 50% in some of the states, but they're both under 50. And so I'm looking at vote share for each of them and how that changes over time. And then obviously a couple of the key crosstabs. But the vote share for Kamala Harris in her first week does not match. It simply does not match the money raised and the excitement and energy and the number of volunteers, et cetera. So we'll see if that changes, certainly. But I'm watching the vote share. Yeah.
I still think this is Donald Trump's election to lose. I do for many reasons. I'm not sure the electoral map favors her. I think that she is going to make some of those more racially diverse states that are on our list of seven more competitive states that she's actually visited quite a bit, like in North Carolina and Nevada. I think it also depends like who the leadership in these states are also and what else is happening on the ballot. So Brian Kemp and
President Trump have repaired. I think Governor Kemp, he did address the convention. I saw him there in Milwaukee, he and his wife, and he's very popular governor of Georgia. Stacey Abrams lost him twice, but she did leave like hundreds of thousands of new registered voters in her wake. So we'll see how it all goes. And you know how this is, energy and excitement and money are fabulous, inevitability, electability, etc.,
But it's up to the voters. And, you know, the voters had their own idea here, didn't they? And I love that. I love the fact that the voters sort of shifted the sands most of all here and are responding a certain way. I think the bottom line for Kamala is what some people may see as inevitability now, I still see as a question of electability. We haven't heard the words electable and Donald Trump since he ran the tables in all the primaries and caucuses and beat all those opponents, worthy opponents.
And so he wasn't electable in 2015 and 2016. And he wasn't electable in 2021, two, three, shouldn't run again. He's electable. But the question of electability really falls on her shoulders now because every candidate, David, every candidate gets that question saddled on the shoulders. I know President, I know Senator Obama did for sure. Well, yeah, I mean, I think I agree with your take on the race, which is Trump still has an advantage. And so I think what we'll see is between now and let's say a week after the convention,
you know, does Harris have more room to grow? And if so, then I think that advantage probably evaporates. And you're talking about a dead heat race. If it doesn't change and she's still down a couple of points, then, you know, she's going to have to win the fall. And that's where the debates really matter, how you close, you know, how you handle the big moments. I don't know yet. I think it's possible between the VP pick more consolidation and,
you know, getting on the air and starting to tell your story a little bit. You made a really important point about organization. Organization itself is not going to close a gap, but it matters. Donald Trump clearly has passionate people who are out there on social media, knocking on doors, making phone calls.
I think the biggest change between Biden and Harris is, you know, we didn't have much of that. You know, Joe Biden had passionate supporters, but you were going to have an enthusiasm problem. And I always remind my Democratic friends, you know, it's really hard for a Democrat to win battleground states. We've won a lot of them recently, but why is it hard? Well, in every battleground state, whether it's for Senate governor or president, there are more conservative voters than liberal. By the way, in some cases, close to two to one.
And Republicans tend to get more reliable turnout from a larger percentage of their base. So they you guys, they always start closer to 50 percent. Right. And so it's really, really hard. And so you kind of have to be firing on all cylinders. A Democrat has to win as much of the middle as possible to have any chance to win. And you've got to have enthusiasm to help with registration and turnout. And I think that latter part, I'm confident.
It does remind me a little bit of some of the enthusiasm in the Obama years. Now, it's early days. You've got to keep having it. You've got to then turn the enthusiasm into operation. It's got to be effective. It's super hard. That's good. So that we didn't have that before, you know, and the 20 race was really weird. I mean, I think the Trump campaign did quite a bit on the ground, Biden mostly digitally. So this may be the first time, you know, and I think in 16, you guys had an enthusiasm advantage on the ground.
You know, in 12 and eight, Obama did. So so maybe we have that again or at least we've matched it. But then you still have to win the middle. And so the math exercise of how you win these states is also different. How you win Georgia, you know, Kamala Harris is going to only have to win what, 34, 35 percent of the white vote, you know, to win Wisconsin. She's going to have to win close to 50.
So turnout in Georgia is it's important everywhere, but it's absolutely essential that you're at the very top shelf and turnout in a state like Georgia and in North Carolina to have a chance. Again, I would still say Donald Trump has an advantage in this race, but a big change to me is that.
That, you know, when you would say the last couple of episodes and even before that, that, you know, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona were slipping away from battleground status. It was hard to argue with that. I think she brings them back in, even though Trump still has an advantage. And that's huge. I mean, I can't imagine running a presidential campaign where you had to win elections.
All the states you were targeting now by the end in 16, you pretty much did that. I don't know. You guys went after New Hampshire. There were some other states, but you want a high percentage of your targets. And I think if Kamala Harris now has multiple pathways to get to 270, as Donald Trump does, I think, you know, Joe Biden two, three weeks ago, he didn't have multiple pathways. There was only one. Right. The other thing I want to talk about is this Nebraska, too, is is is really, really important.
And I'll be curious to see how much time the campaign spend there, their running mates spend there. By the way, it's a congressional district, so you should be able to build like just an amazing organization to touch every voter. But like, you know, people forget that Joe Biden won it pretty comfortably in 20, but it went through redistricting. It's still a Democratic lean, but less so. It's going to be competitive.
And why that matters is in a scenario where Donald Trump won, you know, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona and Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. But she didn't win Nebraska to Donald Trump's president.
So I think we should start talking about that as much as we do these others because it is such a linchpin. But I do think the electoral college situation has changed. I still think Trump is up in those states, although it's closed a lot. But at least she's got a chance now to run competitive races there. And, you know, we won North Carolina way back in 08, lost it in the 12. Biden won 20. So we have the kind of sense of what it takes now.
And it takes everything for a Democrat to do that. But again, strategically, I think that's important. Now, again, do you have the money to fund all those states? You know, we went from what Kellyanne probably most of this year, Joe Biden having a financial advantage that got erased. Donald Trump has had an advantage the last month. He's been on the air twice.
Really pouring it on. We'll see if Harris can sustain this because, you know, at the end of the day, these states are pretty big. North Carolina is a big state. Georgia is a big state. Arizona is a big state. They're expensive. So I've always believed like you can't be half assed, like you're either all in or you're all out.
Because you're just being irresponsible if you don't think you have either the people power or the money power to compete. And it's hard to do, David, because even if you have the money and the people power, the minute that you are not as deeply engaged or invested in your early advise, for example, or the candidate schedule where Secret Service says they're going to go next with, in this case, either Harris or Trump.
Everybody pounces like, oh my God, they must be pulling out of that state. Oh my goodness. They're not telling everyone they're running out of money. So that's the other gamble here, which is that the first candidate who looks like they're taking one of those swing states off the map, which I always thought for Biden, Harris, not Harris blank, it was going to be Nevada and six electoral votes. Then that sort of has its own snowball momentum, right? It's like, you're not just expanding the map. You are...
You're contracting it. You're taking one off the thing. So what you're telling us is what you absolutely know, which is
Every vote counts. And we already know that. It sounds like a truism. It's so true. And I think it's why you don't have people staying with these third party candidates. I think it's why you see this enthusiasm. People feel they've got skin in the game. I want voters in our democracy, in our constitutional republic, David Plouffe, to always feel that their voice and their vote counts. It is the most equalizing part of our democratic system under the constitution. One person, one vote.
You said something else, though, that I think we should dig into for our listeners, because they've heard us talk about it before, but with two different candidates. And it's this matter of not just the swing states, but now who can Kamala Harris pick that maybe helps her win one of those swing states or helps her win a constituency that maybe is a little bit more endangered for her than it would have been for Joe Biden. So if you don't mind digging in,
We hear Tim Waltz, the governor of Minnesota, President Trump and J.D. Vance were there recently, I think over the weekend, had a huge rally in Minnesota. I know in 2016, President Trump wanted to go to Minnesota and Virginia. I said, oh, we can get you here or there. And he said, we'll do both. So we started out on a Saturday in Minnesota and then that was like 9 a.m. and then 1 a.m. on the Sunday, a day later, which seemed like in dog years, a lifetime later, he finished in Virginia. He didn't win either state, but
But I think in Minnesota, it was like a point and a half. And, you know, the media was saying, ha ha, is he going to have a Trump hotel there or build a Trump golf course? Why is he there? He's there because he was trying to make a play for these unusual states that were just elusive for Republicans for years, like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So he figured Minnesota. So you've got Tim Walton there.
I've heard the dark horse Gary Peters. I read that this week. One of the senators from Michigan, not Gretchen Whitmer, not two women and not two competitive women at that, but competing for 2028. But Gary Peters, because Trump does have such an advantage with the union households. And I think some people work in the auto industry and certainly had 100,000 voters in the Democratic primaries this year about no confidence to say to vote Biden-Harris.
And then, of course, Mark Kelly, astronaut, senator, identical twin brother. Maybe maybe they think he can cover double the ground if he's campaigning. I say that tongue in cheek. Everybody calm down. I'm winking at David Bluff. Calm down. And so there's him. He's got a new story about investing in a balloon company that maybe was his main investor was Tencent, was Chinese and surveillance. And so we'll see how he handles that.
And then, of course, Josh Shapiro, the one I've always been talking about. I talked on Jesse Waters, you know, before President Trump announced his VP pick two days before he was shot. God forbid that if you're, you know, if Operation Remove Biden accelerates your Kamala Harris, maybe you do go into Pennsylvania trying to take that off the map. I think they're probably worried about a J.D. Vance making Pennsylvania more competitive and
And so they, for president Trump, who already makes it competitive. So what, what is your take or what is your advice? I'm sure you're being asked off this podcast, your advice also, but how do you break down and who are we missing? Like a couple of dark horses is that Pete, what a judgmental that real is Roy Cooper in North Carolina reels, Andy Beshear, who seems very thirsty for this reel. How do you assess that? Maybe top three for Kamala Harris's VP pick.
Well, my sense is it's more than three. Like I think she is talking, you listed everybody. And so you think about that. If she's got to pick by August 7th, they're vetting what they can led by Eric Holder, former attorney general. She's going to have direct conversations. Maybe she has one and then narrows it down to two or three finalists and has another, but this is really happening fast.
Which, you know, is just the calendar demands it. So, you know, there's going to be a degree of risk probably she'll feel in anybody she picks, which is I would have liked a few more weeks. I would have liked a few more conversations. You know, you and I have talked about this. I have a strong bias against this.
thinking that a VP selection is going to matter very much at all in terms of a constituency group or a state. Now, listen, if Josh Shapiro added 0.3 to Pennsylvania, like that would matter a great deal because it could come down to 0.3. So, but I think it's more just like
How do they gel? Like, I actually think picking a governor is interesting, too, because she can say, hey, I know a lot of change is going to happen out in the states. Governors play a big role. I want to pick somebody who understands that, who knows governors, who thinks about these policies, not just through D.C. That could be interesting. So obviously, you've got Cooper, Bashir, Wal Shapiro in that group. The others are senators or in Buttigieg's case, a former mayor.
But I think so much of this. So here's what I'd say, Kelly, and she should still, I think, pick somebody who at the top of the list of considerations is if I win,
I think that person's competent. They'll be a good counselor. I could give them projects. Also, like you don't want this person to be someone you don't get along with because you spend a lot of time with them, you know? So there's that. Then I think there's like, how do we fit together? Like, what's the story there? And then, you know, back to the debate, the most important thing is, is can they handle JD Vance? Can they do well in that debate? And will they just execute here? Here's the thing I always remind people of.
Every VP for the most part, I mean, JD Vance only ran once. So maybe he's an exception to this, but most of these people, they've run multiple times. They've won tough races. You know, they've got their own biography, their own message, their own sense of how campaigns are run. And they come in and it's like, forget all that.
You're on this team. So true. You know, and it's really hard. I mean, I remember Joe Biden, who was was a very loyal soldier. But in 08, you know, it took a few days for him to be like, hey, I got my guys and they think this and this is how we did it. And it's like, with all due respect, sir.
That's not the deal. So this is how we're dealing. You know, this is how. So so there's that piece. You don't want someone, you know, sorry for the friend. You don't want to be a pain in the ass. You want somebody who's just going to like basically say, tell me what to do and do it well. So, you know, but I'm I think the governor things interesting just because of the story. Now, Shapiro, Pennsylvania, younger, good communicator. Walls is having his moment as a communicator. He's doing a lot of interviews. People think Bashir is communicating well.
So and that's important in today's world. What's that? He's hungry for. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I think that, you know, some people in your party make. This is a new thing. I mean, all the potential Trump people are out there doing interviews. Right. All the Democratic people. It's very different, by the way. It used to be very quiet. All right. Exactly. Yeah.
So I don't know. I kind of prefer the quiet process. So I don't know. But for me, it's like, OK, what's that picture look like day one? You know, and by the way, one thing, you know, I hope they do, the Democratic ticket does, is, you know, get out on a boat tour, a bus tour. Like, I miss those. Like, I mean, Trump's not doing many events. Biden wasn't doing many events. I hope Harris will do a lot. I'm sure Trump will start doing more. Get back to doing three, four events a day and bus tours and trains and whatever.
I mean, I just love that stuff. I think it matters because it's more interesting to voters. You cover a lot of territory. So I think that's the other thing with a VP. Like, I always look back to like Gore to me for Clinton, uh,
in many respects, is like the visual ideal. Like there was a powerful visual, right? No, it was generational. Two young Southerners, right, generational. So Harris is 59. She's not 40. But I think, you know, to the extent she picks somebody her age or younger, I think that helps. But we live in a visual world. And so I think hopefully that visual is powerful. I think she's got a great smile. Hopefully someone who's a happy warrior. But the most important thing in my campaign is two things.
Can they handle that debate with Vance? And then secondly, you know, will they work 18 hours a day doing what people they never met before telling them to do and do it with a smile and do it without making a lot of mistakes? Those are the most important things.
Yes, I guess I can make a different argument. I really hope that people don't vote according to folks' smiles. And I do have to say. That's part of it, though. Yeah. Of course, it's part of it. But what's behind the smile? I mean, what are the policies are going to prove my life? Listen, David, I'm sure I don't have to tell you, but there are plenty of people in this country who are suffering, plenty who aren't.
But plenty who are suffering. They feel economically squeezed. They feel like they can't get ahead of the monthly bills. You know, all the statistics, the number of the vast majority of Americans in living paycheck to paycheck don't really have those benefits at work anymore. They used to. Things are even if the wages increase a little, that's questionable. Cost of living has gone up. So it kills those wage increases.
So I think inflation is very real. The economy is very real. The border is very real. People are feeling, no matter if it's Biden, Harris, or someone else, they're feeling that. I still think that
Harris would need to do what Biden failed to do, which is not just debate Trump or show up on the stage, but has to actually have a plan that makes people feel help would be on the way, not more of a same, because you wouldn't just get Joe Biden for four more years. You can get Kamala for like, what, 12? No, eight? I don't know. A long time. And so people need to think about that. But I actually wanted to say for Harris, I haven't heard this before. Maybe someone else is talking or writing about it.
I can make the other argument that she should do what George W. Bush did. So he was what, 54 or 55 when he was elected president in 2000. And he was looking for a VP and he put a guy named Dick Cheney, former Congressman, former Chief of Staff, former Pentagon Secretary in charge of the search. And I guess one day Dick Cheney, who I know well and respect,
said, looked in the mirror and said, I have a great idea, Dick Cheney. But seriously speaking, there is an argument if you're young and you're new and if people have doubts about your leadership.
So people say, oh, she's saying Kamala can't do the job. I don't know if she can do the job. But if a critical number of Americans wonder if she can do the job, there's an argument for not picking a peer or someone younger. There's an argument for picking somebody who's not a competitor to you in 2028 and who's older and seasoned. So I don't know who that is, the godfathers of the party necessarily, but
But that is not a bad idea for her that I had not heard elsewhere. I also just wanted people to hear, I'm pulling it up here as we speak. I just thought that the endorsement by Michelle Obama for Kamala Harris was very nice and could have consequence for
But she just said she's a kind person who's going to bring light to the campaign. Like, what is that? Where's the stuff about she's had a kick-ass portfolio and has performed so ably and we're so proud of her accomplishments and she's ready for this moment because after all, she's been Joe Biden's vice president. Look how popular he is. Look how people think.
He's accomplished things on the border or in Israel, not, not, or fix the economy, no. So I was really struck by her endorsement. It just seemed to me it was a little, it was nice of her to do it. It was completely expected. It will have consequence in a few places, especially if she puts a couple campaign stops behind. We're talking about Michelle Obama endorsing Kamala Harris.
But what's with this sort of she's a kind person who's going to bring light to the race stuff? Well, I think Michelle Obama knows Kamala Harris. I think that she definitely, I think, attracted to, you know, Kamala is kind of a happy warrior. She's a people person. But what will matter is, you know, Michelle Obama will speak at the convention. She may appear in ads. That'll be a decision the Harris campaign has to make. And I think there you'll hear her talk about things like,
you know, childcare and healthcare and the economy in effective ways through the prism of, you know, an agenda will help women. I do agree with you that Kamala Harris has to make clear, voters have to understand like, okay, what's your agenda? And there's probably going to have to be some places where it doesn't have to mean it's 180 degrees from Joe Biden, but some distinction, some degrees of separation, I think that's important. Now, I don't think Trump has laid out
a particularly specific agenda either. I think that's an opportunity that he's going to have to seize.
You know, he says, well, inflation's too high. You know, he'll talk about the border, but he doesn't really lay out what he's going to do about it. He doesn't know about building the wall anymore. He can't talk about that. He doesn't like talking about his tariffs. He doesn't really talk about his tax cuts too much because they're not very popular. So I think he's got work to do there, too. I think that is work both of them have to do is the candidate who, let's say, by the end of October,
voters have a better sense of if I elect them, they'll do X, Y, and Z. You know, apart from just character and the things that, you know, they criticize their opponent for, that's an important part of politics. I mean, contrast is important. There's no question about that. But what I have found in politics is the stronger and simple your, you know, here's the three things I'm going to do. Like I'll just, you know, on housing, on inflation, on health care.
The more that you're able to credential that, that gives you to standing than to say, and I think my opponent's wrong. They want to do X. If you don't have anything to say, I think voters, you know, voters are smart. They say, well, OK, you criticize your opponent. Well, but what are you going to do about it? And that's a place where I think Kamala Harris should be largely free.
to not be bound to, you know, Joe Biden. Obviously, directionally, they're going to be in the same neighborhood. But if there's things she wants to do differently, like Joe Biden's got his tax plan, maybe she'll alter that a little bit. You know, she's got additional thoughts, I think, about things like child care. She may talk about the border in a slightly different way than Biden did going forward. Exactly. Well, it's not specific and granular. I mean, she says we need to improve child care and everything. Yeah.
Yeah, and there'll be policy ideas beneath that. That's important to have. Yeah, I mean, you talk about tough stuff, but that's helped a lot of people, businesses and individuals who are going to see and feel the pain if they're not, if they sunset. People have got accustomed to many of these measures. And so, you know, we don't need more energy dependence. We don't need, I mean, why is Antony Blinken, our Secretary of State, saying,
Something as anadhynas were concerned about the election results of it as well. And not just say, is he afraid to say it was rigged or it was stolen or it's very concerning because it's not what happened. I mean, what are we doing here? We have a war on fossil fuels by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Energy, but energy production's at an all-time high in America. We were the first. All-time high. That's because the oil and gas people don't really care what they say. They go on and weep. All-time high. Because we consumers rejected the Biden-Harris people to judge mandates for people who don't want to vote.
It's an all of the above strategy. Yeah, it's not. It's not nuclear. It's not when it's not. It's when, well, no, Donald Trump doesn't like wind because of birds, which is a weird thing. Every time I ask about Kamala Harris, you want to talk about Donald Trump or her smile or how kind she is. That's going to be a problem because she needs to get granular. We need specific solutions. My biggest concern when people ask me about her,
I'm in Europe where they're asking me, I get asked in the States when people ask me about my biggest concern is that she's able to run the Biden in the basement campaign, but right in front of us.
up on a stage at a day at a podium reading from a teleprompter at a dais in it because when the media cover her events now it's all fans it's all you know she's she's going to draw a crowd and they're all going to be hooting and hollering no matter what she says we need to improve child care we need longer summers we need chocolate chip cookies and puppies um and so they're going to be like she's amazing did you hear what she said about the puppies and the cookies wow
First woman president. So I'm concerned that she'll never have to go granular. She'll never have to specify solutions for every person who said to me this past week, David, or who said it and I just read it or heard it for every person who said, oh, she doesn't have enough time to the windows too close, too small for her to become the candidate and do well and build a campaign. The opposite could be true that that small window benefits her.
Because there's not enough time to suss out her record and present it to the country through her own words. So you may think there is, you know, this long tape of the vice presidential candidate. There's a long tape of the current vice president who wants to be president, Kamala Harris. Well, I wanted to say something about money and politics. I'm going to go back to 2016 quickly. You mentioned New Hampshire. So when I took over as campaign manager, we felt like we had one path. You just said Joe Biden had one path before.
before he dropped out. Our one path was protect the core for Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio,
Three of which are totally off the map now. Thank you, Donald Trump, which President Obama won twice, thanks in no small part to you. Those are off the map. And then we had to get Nevada, which I think was seven at the time, now six, New Hampshire, and Maine too. You mentioned Nebraska too. We needed Maine too for one electoral vote, and that got us enough. That was basically 270.
And over time, David, we saw the messages that were working in Ohio and Iowa, working in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin, which kept going back there. But we also saw something that in New Hampshire was getting very sticky for us because very uncertain for us. It's four electoral votes. We'd love to have stayed there with a big footprint. But there was a woman running for Senate, I think now Governor Kelly Ayotte. She was running for reelection in the Senate and she couldn't decide. She was Hamlet on Trump.
Yes, I'd let my 12-year-old daughter look at him as a role model. No, I wouldn't. Yes, I wouldn't. I'm for him. I'm against him. It was becoming very chaotic. Most expensive Senate race of the cycle, I believe. She lost. Trump won. But we kind of, we dipped out of New Hampshire a little bit. We dipped out of Nevada a little bit.
And you do that when you don't have all that money, when you don't have all that staff. And so I just wanted to mention that because what happens when you have a lot of money, it becomes distortive. You think you can expand the map and play everywhere, go over here and chase this and chase that. And such and such governor called me. He's a Republican governor of a blue state. He says we can win that state and you want to run. And if you have the money, you're tempted to do it.
You got to keep it tight and focused. Yeah. Well, I think you and I both agree. While you want to be opportunistic and not stubborn, usually the most important word in a campaign is no.
You know, everyone's got ideas for something you should do, spend money, spend time. But if that takes you too far afield from that central goal, and you're right, I mean, I think that, you know, you made a great decision in 16 to trim your sails a little bit in Nevada, New Hampshire. We had to make the same decision in 12 with North Carolina. It just wasn't going to be there this time, as painful as that was. And so I think with Kamala Harris now, she's now, I think, got a battlefield of seven plus that congressional district in New
So her goal is to maintain that. Now, I think Trump was he wasn't what he was in Minnesota this week, New Hampshire, Virginia. My sense in this race is those states are going to be a bridge too far. You know, unless Kamala Harris were to really stumble and we get back to we'll see. But that'll be fascinating to watch how the Trump campaign. What's it? Well, no, I mean, but but but just I'm not I'm not making a partisan, you know, assessment if the race changes.
kind of seems like it's trending in the direction it is right now, then those states, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, maybe Harris only wins them by three or four or two even. But the Trump campaign will be interesting to see how they approach that because I know this in eight, in 12,
Wow. I mean, Democrats want you to go campaign everywhere. You know, I think one of the smart things the Biden campaign did in 2020, led by General Malley Dillon, is go after Texas, go after Florida, you know, and they said no, you know, and they got a lot of grief for that.
But the numbers just weren't there. So you have to be faithful to, you know, can you get to a win number in the Electoral College? So and you and I have both been there. They're hard decisions. But that's the kind of discussion that happens every day in a campaign. And I agree with you. Sometimes it's harder when you have enough money.
But just because you have enough money, like if you're not going to send your candidate there four times a week, that means you're not serious about it. You know? Well, listen, Kellyanne, great discussion. I'm sure by the time we talk next week, 17 other things will have happened or haven't happened before. So thanks everybody for listening. And for me, David Plouffe. And for me, Kellyanne Conway. Thanks for listening to the Campaign Managers Podcast. Remember, it is easy to be enraged. It's essential to be engaged. We'll see you next week.
This guy was as cold and calculated as they come. Maybe we weren't going to get it solved.
It was like the epitome of innocence that had been preyed upon. This is a case that has no evidence. We didn't have DNA. We didn't have fingerprints. Step inside the court of law with the new true crime podcast, American Justice. We realized we have four men who answered the same ad for a job on a farm. My brother Ralph went to interview and he was never seen again.
A podcast that explores impactful crimes and reveals how our justice system works. You have to consider that there are more possibilities than one. And sometimes, how it doesn't. We have to find whoever this monster is. Go in-depth into chilling cases and their conclusions in this new true crime series. ♪
You just have a pit in your stomach thinking, how many people are we going to find? New episodes of American Justice are available every Wednesday, wherever you get your podcasts.