cover of episode David Frum: Pride in the Fight

David Frum: Pride in the Fight

2024/11/5
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The Bulwark Podcast

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David Frum: 尽管特朗普的支持率始终徘徊在46%到47%左右,但自他进入政坛以来,从未获得过大多数美国人的支持。他是一个骗子,最终被大多数人识破。他对女性做出了幼稚且具有性别歧视意味的攻击,这可能影响到关键选民——年长共和党女性的投票选择。他缺乏自我控制,容易因不满而发怒,这会带来严重后果。他周围聚集了一群有心理问题的人,这令人担忧。他对美国民主制度和政治竞争的破坏性影响是不可忽视的。他对选举人团制度的扭曲作用表示担忧,并认为如果特朗普再次赢得选举,即使输掉普选票,那将对美国的民主制度造成严重冲击,并需要重新思考抵抗的方式。他认为,即使特朗普再次当选总统,他仍然是一个缺乏合法性的总统。他对选举结果感到担忧,尤其担心选举人团制度会扭曲民意,以及新总统会在外交政策方面面临严峻考验。他对过去十年与特朗普对抗的经历感到自豪,并希望哈里斯赢得选举,以便能够从政治生活中抽身,专注于个人生活。 Tim Miller: 特朗普在竞选期间对女性做出了幼稚且具有性别歧视意味的攻击,这可能影响到关键选民——年长共和党女性的投票选择。特朗普缺乏自我控制,容易因不满而发怒,这会带来严重后果。与特朗普周围的狂热分子相比,那些愤世嫉俗的人更危险。特朗普的行为举止令人担忧,他周围聚集了一群有心理问题的人。尽管对哈里斯总统的政治立场有保留意见,但支持哈里斯是必要的,因为这有助于维护美国的民主制度和政治竞争。J.D. Vance 将哈里斯副总统称为“垃圾”,这体现了共和党竞选活动的低劣水平。如果特朗普输掉选举,共和党需要反思其在女性选民中的问题。与特朗普的竞选收尾方式相比,里根在1980年总统竞选辩论中的收尾陈述更具风度和尊严。梅根·凯利对错误的人感到愤怒,她应该责怪的是默多克、艾尔斯和特朗普,而不是奥普拉和碧昂丝。梅根·凯利试图模仿奥普拉,但失败了,因为她本质上是一个刻薄的人,而奥普拉则是一个善良的人。投票支持哈里斯既是进步的也是保守的,因为它既能推进进步的政策议程,又能维护政治制度的稳定和延续。他预测卡马拉·哈里斯将以微弱优势赢得选举人票,获得276张选举人票。他预测亚利桑那州的选举结果将出乎蓝州选民的意料,而北卡罗来纳州的结果则会令人惊喜。他相信本次选举后不会发生大规模暴力事件,因为缺乏政府内部的同谋。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is David Frum calm about the election outcome?

He believes a majority of Americans have consistently rejected Trump, and this will manifest again, despite the potential distortion by the Electoral College.

What does David Frum think about the Electoral College?

He views it as a flawed system that distorts American opinion and has historically been a threat to democracy, often resulting in presidents elected by a minority of votes.

Why does David Frum think Trump's campaign strategy is flawed?

Trump has alienated key demographics, such as college-educated Republicans, with sexist remarks and by ignoring potential allies like Nikki Haley, instead focusing on fringe figures like Bobby Kennedy.

What does David Frum predict about the election outcome?

He predicts Kamala Harris will win a narrow electoral college victory with 276 electoral votes, despite concerns about the Electoral College potentially distorting the popular vote.

Why does David Frum feel pride about the past decade?

He is proud of the resilience shown by never-Trumpers and voters who consistently opposed Trump, contributing to the country's ability to handle the Trump challenge.

What does David Frum hope for in a Kamala Harris presidency?

He hopes for a restorative presidency that maintains the possibility of future disagreements and keeps alive the principles of free and fair elections, despite potential progressive policies.

Why does David Frum think there won't be significant violence after the election?

He believes the violence in 2021 was a planned conspiracy with government complicity, which won't be present this time, leading to only disorganized hooliganism rather than a threat to national authority.

Chapters
The podcast opens with a reflection on the significance of voting and the upcoming election, setting the stage for a discussion on the current political landscape.
  • Philadelphia as the birthplace of democracy.
  • Kamala Harris's final rally in Philadelphia.
  • David Frum's calm demeanor on election day.

Shownotes Transcript

Whatever happens tonight, Never Trumpers and voters should be proud that we rose to the challenge of Trump—and that a majority of Americans see through this fraudster. Meanwhile, a vote for Kamala is both a progressive and conservative choice. Plus, the Electoral College is crazy, Megyn is mad at the wrong people, and Tim's final prediction. 

David Frum joins Tim Miller. show notes Reagan's closing statement in 1980 at the final debate with Carter) David's book mentioned in show, "Trumpocalypse" )