Key Insights
Why did Kamala Harris overtake Donald Trump in the Iowa poll?
The turnaround is attributed to women, particularly those aged 65 and older, who shifted from favoring Trump to supporting Harris 63% to 28%. The strict abortion law in Iowa may have played a significant role in this shift.
What demographic shift was particularly notable in the Iowa poll?
Women aged 65 and older showed a significant shift, favoring Harris over Trump by a margin of more than two to one (63% to 28%).
How does Ann Selzer's polling methodology differ from others?
Selzer's method involves polling forward, aiming to reveal the future electorate without favoring past voting patterns. This contrasts with other methods that may wait to past votes, potentially skewing results to look like previous elections.
What impact did the abortion issue have on the Iowa poll results?
The abortion issue, particularly the six-week ban that went into effect over the summer, seems to have driven a significant shift in voter preferences, especially in congressional districts, leading to a tilt towards Democratic candidates.
How does Ann Selzer handle potential response bias in her polls?
Selzer's method controls for response bias by ensuring that the demographics of her sample match the known population parameters of Iowa. This includes weighting the sample to reflect the likelihood of older voters, who are more likely to vote, being correctly represented.
What was Ann Selzer's reaction to the unexpected poll results?
Selzer was cautious but not surprised, having seen similar dramatic shifts before. She noted that her methodology, which makes no assumptions, confirmed the unweighted data showing Harris in the lead, despite it being contrary to conventional wisdom.
What does Ann Selzer believe sets her polling apart from others?
Selzer believes her polling stands out because it aims to predict the future electorate without relying on past voting patterns, which she calls 'polling backward'. This approach seeks to reveal what the electorate will look like in 2024, not just replicate 2020 results.
How did the congressional race results in Iowa correlate with the presidential poll?
The congressional race results showed a significant tilt towards Democratic candidates, particularly in districts where the abortion issue was prominent. This organic shift in congressional races may have influenced the presidential race towards the Democrat as well.
Chapters
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa.
- Women, especially those aged 65 and older, favor Harris 63% to 28%.
- Iowa's new abortion law is a significant factor in the shift.
Shownotes Transcript