The Five Most Important Stories of Bitcoin's $90K Week
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All right, friends, IT is a big crazy week here on the friday five. I recorded this with Scott milker this morning. And obviously a huge part of the story is just the crazy market movement in cyp to what that means, what IT reflects certainly with the new incoming administration.

So it's a fun one. There is a lot to talk about. Let's stick in.

There's so much to talk about. I don't even know how to break this down. Literally our topic number one, massive the rally plus microsys or microstrip gic, plus etf, plus strategic big winners. That's one of our five topics.

Yeah exactly. At least we get to sort of bunch of things together to make a more fit.

yeah. So we started here officially with the trump trade is still moving markets. But how long can that last? Of course.

Then, you know, Price action between ninety three have dumped down in the eighties. It's all over. We're so back, baby. You know, the emotional volunteer roll coaster that IT is cypher trump Victory tip to break logjam of exotic us. Crypto etf filings, we saw h bar filing this week.

And if you guys saw that bit wise files for multi ecliptic etl after gardens or resignation hint, we didn't even add the fact that we had a gary against a resignation hint. I mean, this is basically the story here is that all things trump and future of crypto are happening very quickly. We're getting all the pro cyp to appointments as much as we could have imagined potentially into every key position. Most of were florida men, which I think is hilarious. And we're already getting companies like bit wise and Robin hood listing things, filing for things that they would have never even thought about a week ago.

One piece of this is just sort of excitement, right? It's sort of that the palpable relief after four years of tagged isc relationships. I think you see a little bit of that.

I think the other part of this is that crypto u more than ever has a sense that when times are good, it's not gonna waste a single second of that opportunity messing around, right? I think that this last cycle, we saw something new. You know, we were kind of used to these four years ups and downs.

And you know everyone who'd weather the storm and could weather the storm, the difference of being sort of targeted in the aggressive way that the industry was, if you get really changed the tenor of how, uh, how many in the space see their opportunity went, times are good. And so I think part of what you're seeing is that opportunity, literally, we're not to wait a day, a week, a month, a minute of this potentially friendly administration by trying to get things done. You know we also there's there's the consideration of like that just how how little time you actually get at the beginning of a presidential administration to actually do anything. You know it's like before long, your campaign for the mid term mid term usually bring some sort of realizing now it's it's just the the window is actually fairly small. So ah you can definitely see people at least acting like now is the time to kind of you know strike while the iron.

So obviously a subset of this story is all things micon strategic reserve, right? So we have the idea that's been floated that we could possibly get this thing. We've got a few stories surrounding IT. Neverseconds says very unlikely.

But if we do get IT goes to five hundred thousand server lining of being a democrat, obviously, and then you have almost pushing very hard even to sell some of the feds gold to buy bitcoin. She's floating that. She's made comments that that will happen in one hundred days.

And then just as sort of a honorable mention, pensylvania an house introducers build to implement a strategic big coin. And Frankly, the budgets of these states and their cashes earth are larger than all countries in the world, minus ten mounting. So these are actually really, really big. This would be bigger than a major country if you would be taking big question to its reserve.

We we talked about this last week to and and my feeling is still kind of the same. My senses that luma is trying to define a version of this that can be compromised down to a version that still exists. If you look at the chatter in the cypher sphere, you can see there are doing their part of narrative making by pointing to know machine nations and rumors that other nations are trying to front run the U.

S. As relates to this, for seeing a lot of that sort of chatter, tons of vague and kind of cypher tweet from people who uh who's you know say say that there are in the know around big coin purchases from from big sovereign. You know there's there's chatter about some skin in navia countries.

There's chatter about the middle east is always, you know I think we'll have to way and see the the the real question is how much political will will this take and how where does IT rank relative to all the other? You know, a priorities. My son is in ranks fairly low relative to all the other priorities. So it's gotta be something that doesn't take a tonic political will. I don't know yet because i'm not in washington.

And I think this would be an interesting question for people who are more in the crypt to I don't know what the real resistance would be to just keeping the the bitcoin has been seize that sort of version of a strategic pick in reserve is that it's the idea of you know formally saying that there's a reserve is so unpalatable that there would be no A A big fight, i'm not sure. But you know that's the question is just it's gna have nothing to do with basically the the interest of the administration in bitcoin. It's gna have to do with where ranks, relatives, everything else in whether it's worth the political .

cost yeah political will you could even sort of reframe as political capital or bargeton chips, right? Like how much of the favor, how many favorites you want to call in, how much of the capital, how many things do you want to trade for this? Yeah, you've got a long .

four years ahead of you. Yeah, I am skeptical from where i'm sitting, but you know, hopeful as well. The fact that my skepticism comes from not a lack of interest from elected officials, but sheer sort of reality of of how the sausage gets made and how many other things are on the agenda right now is is telling us how far we've come.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some small mention of IT and is just holding the silk road bitcoin and IT goes into some much larger bill is one of the sort of subsectors. yep. I also wouldn't .

be surprised if what gets negotiated away is the naming of IT is a strategic becot reserve and IT get functionally at the same thing that they just hold to IT because IT seems to me like there's two potential fault. es. One is anything around actually sort of purchasing you know, new bitcoin is one. But then the second is the validation that comes with naming, and that might be also on the compromising book as a menu.

as a personal strategy. Quit in reserve. This guy, which is the final part of this story, I guess microscope, twenty seven thousand, two hundred, that going for two billion dollars, they going profit sit at eleven billion. He's basically doubled up now on his bit point investment, but he's also now out on the road to say, member, that forty two billion I said I was gonna raise britten a half twenty one, twenty one not coincident. That might happen a lot faster than the two, three years that we saw because there's a hell of a lot of interest and and he can literally raise forty two billion dollars of becoming months and IT wouldn't even .

surprised me yeah I mean, you know, I think one of the things that microstrip gy does for everyone is there's always a temptation as the Price goes up to feel like you miss the window right. And usually IT takes a while before you realize that you didn't miss the window. You know you feel like bitcoin was expensive at eighteen thousand back in october of twenty sixteen and obviously look at where we are now sort of a long enough time horizon thing sail around here buying biton for seventy five thousand last thursday and look like a genius because it's twenty thousand dollars hired three days later. So do s sale does is a pretty good investment strategy when IT comes a bit on.

Now sort of the second part of this trump trade or what's happening with the administration that could be procyta, obviously, is his appointments and none bigger than, of course, this dog jojo crazed grip's career fuel Price premium on local giants up bit and bit them yeah, but that's because we have the department of government efficiency because I think many expected would be LED by mosque.

I think that was a nice bonus that IT was also a vg gram swami who loves script. And people around the administration think he is very responsible for the orange building, but also very critical, obviously, of regulation and the way that the government Operates. I don't know how much they can cut waste. I don't know how much little matter in the face of ballooning debt, but they literally called IT those in a presidential memo and the simulation is just fire and also linders right now.

Yeah um I wanted to make sure uh, something that was I was informed of by a bunch of listeners is that some of the earliest uh, use of that name actually came from bick coiner's. So they may also be responsible for the name as well.

This story is really interesting because on the one hand, the democratic narrative around this, if you watch you know M S N B C or uh whatever CNN is every republican administration forever, has always wanted to cut waves. That always been a campaign promise that never happens. Why didn't truck do IT in the first time? Boba BBA, bob, right.

And and hold aside the partisanship, there's a reasonable question, right? Certainly, IT is the case that the U. S government has proceeded towards you know more debt, more blooded budgets, not not a fiscal restraint um and so you know is a reasonable skepticism, let's say a of this type of effort.

The other reasonable skeptic m is that this is is an advisory body, right? This is ultimately IT IT appears a thing that sort of sits outside the administration and love s advice in. Now of course, it's totally within the administrations preview how it's going to listen that advice of trump.

Uh tells the office of the management and budget, uh, management and budget to do whatever they say, then they're gona do whatever he says. But again, another point of skepticism, what I think that the counter point for me is the fact that one is just, in general, very unwise to bet against iran. This is sort of a standard maxim.

Uh, I think that silicon valley has grown for some time now, and I think the rest of the world is starting to come to IT. I mean, the guy decided to go all in on, trumpeted, just planted up in pennsylvania. And you know, that was the strategy.

You know, look out, IT worked up. The other piece, one that I think is particularly telling, maybe even more than the one peace, is vivek had the opportunity to basically be sort of appointed to the senate in ohio and decided to do this instead. And this is a man who is extraordinary ily politically ambition.

I mean, he actually ran, he gave a no bush run for president, you know, as part of the the early nomination season. And so the fact that he thinks that he's gona have a bigger you know IT to wield from this thing, even though this thing is sort of undefined as supposed to working from you within the senate, uh is is pretty interesting to me. So I don't know. Look, I think it's uh as everything with elon as a rosha test usually of how you feel about elon. But for people who don't get fully sucked into that, this is maybe the one thing in this administration where even I see some dams and progressives being like, you know what if if they can actually do something interesting, their guy, bless, to see and see what happens.

I never thought about the fact that this is almost like the vic taking a pay cut to do the right thing, as opposed to take the biggest political position that possibly good. He could have certainly angled for a huge big name position in the cabinet and senator, obviously. So IT seemed this is literally body wants to do yeah I mean.

that's my I think of all the reasons to be less skeptical of this, that's the one that sort of stands out to me.

What do you think of these other appointments likely mean for rcra pta? right? We have a Lucy being flow for department of treasury, treasury secretary. I mean, imagine if being him, instead of Janet yelling the guy who is after saying that he loves tether.

I think the treasury secretary, at this point we win no matter what is the lightning que or another investor who has been extremely vocal about his excitement about trumps sort of shift into bitcoin and cypher u and been articulate about how it's brought new investors who have been showered on the market post G F C N. So wall street seems to have more of a feeling about that or not. You I think that there are a little bit less bullish on latin compared to the alternatives, at least that is now. But I they are going to be happy with each of them relative to what's you know in empower at the moment.

And I think we're going to end up with obviously a procyta S C. Chairman take that, uh, ninety nine percent chance. I haven't seen anyone floated who would not be deemed as such in the new future.

Senate majority leader has spoken, procreate to and believes that the cfc should be getting more jurisdiction than the S, C C over the S C class. R, F, K, health and human services. There's not a single person I can find here who is being floated for any appointment that hasn't outward said their proper inner graph yeah I mean.

listen to to some extent the next question is how much the anti crypto army chooses to use that to define their opposition to the trump administration? Like do they define how they're different? You know it's cyp to an access issue or do they focus on other things? My guess is, once again, when they are not in power, crypto is is a much less useful thing to be against. So I would anticipate in addition to seeing just sort of more pro leadership in these positions of power, I I would expect to the opposition to care less about crapo because they have bigger fish to fry when he comes to their opposition.

But I am an is now going to be effectively the ranking democrat on the banking committee, which has people in hysterics. But I don't think that matters when to the minority leader and nobody has got your back. So I would doubt there's an existence of an anti crypto army at this point.

Yeah if IT is that typed the army of once in eliza awards kitchen table looking at her old campaign materials and you thinking, finally of what was did .

you see that video SHE made about the election? You know where he was basically sitting at her kitchen table or somewhere in her house and he was like, you know, the world's not ending. I know you're all living in fear like me I mean, just to like the extreme emotion and hyperbole and the world is ending sentiment that came from her.

I'm still a big fan of the pendulum swings. The world never ends. Nobody actually leaves the country and their guy loses. It's all exaggeration. But men.

so I I didn't see that. I will say that i've been sort of pleasantly surprised that how there is I think and we're diverging a little bit into more politics that we Normally do a Better to sort of you know the wrap up of this period this bit, I think the expected like blame IT on external factors sort of thing from the democrats and progressives. However, i've seen more introspection than I would have assumed.

I think examples of this is L. C. Found that a bunch of people in her district voted for her and for trump.

And SHE kind of took to instagram and tiktok really like to genuinely asking, like what was the thinking behind that? Like how is that the case? Because he was surprised. I think people initially were kind of thinking that he was being narky and SHE sort reinforced that he was genuinely asking and a ton of people responded. We think you're both outsiders and we think you both care about the working class now is that, you know did they didn't give a crap about party or affiliation? And anyways, I think that there's if you're in american who thinks that the the country is Better when they're sort of a broad that the people who are thinking from first principles and common sense, the reaction of the election has been maybe a little bit Better .

than I than I would have thought. And it's because I was a last line, because it's beautiful that we didn't have a very closely contest in election because if you lose that bad, you can't really blame external factors. Just have to look inside and say, hey, what did we do wrong? I had met a lawman on here the other day, James Murphy.

He was obviously a pivotal part of the john deton campaign. And he pointed out a very similar phenomenon that a huge percentage of john d voters, not actually the opposite for haris, slaughters you that that just said, hey, listen, like word democrats, you're going to vote for haris, no matter White for present. But we've actually taken a look, and we think john the did is reasonable. In the great candidate for the senate, you got over forty percent vote when got got eighteen yep.

And when you start to have those sort of like that sort of political nuances returns, a natural thing to happen to kind of bring you back to our corner of the world is to look at, you know, you started to survey all these issues that are quickly, not that partisan, and where you find yourself more affiliated others, you find yourself disagreeing with your party.

Like the fact that so many democrats on cyp to the fact that there are so many of progressives for crypto, that's the type of issue that instead of being a wedge, actually becomes a bridge. So I don't know. I think that there's a lot to be very excited about, not only enough that there's a basically a total sweep of crypto allies into power, but also in the fact that IT potentially provides a bridge to others, figure out what's next for their party.

The next story on the docket is Polly market CEO home is raided by the fd I when people said why apparently policy markets investigated by G O J for allegedly letting us users bet on platform. You might remember that a lot of the reason baLance was in hot water because allowed americans to use the platform with the VPN. This is similar. But yeah, we said we're done with politics for lot of people pointing to politics for this, saying, hey, this is the guy who had the platform that said the Donald trump was gonna in and now a week after the election were coming after and before a Donald trump era begins this is or is not political but holy timing here for yeah through this right after the election.

I'm a big fan of occurs razer explanations for things and usually ocs razer points away from conspiracy and towards no, it's bureaucrats doing their job and just the timing happens to line up. I think in this case, all comes as a kind of points the other direction and says, yeah, someone had to be up there, but they knew that there is no actual action here.

They just seize the bunch of they didn't arrest him, you know, they just seized a bunch of things you know didn't know a dramatic way with media coverage. So I don't know I I think that the big question is less about this. The legal issues of prediction markets are going to be fought in court or right, even when IT comes to V P N.

They know there's open legal questions around are you know what what IT means to block V P S and what you have to do and what does and doesn't constitute sort of a sufficient robust strategy is related to that. Again, all of those things are are for courts. The bigger question here, I think for us is, are we going to see a spate of this sort of indicted last minute actions uh, from from this White house? My instinct is that from the White house itself I would be surprised.

I think it's a pretty sufficiently beaten and cowd it's stilus at this point. Uh I think biden just happy to be going home and getting some sleep um but I think that for you there are a lot of burek rats to have had a lot of leach over the last four years. And who had been able to sort of be silent halls, the power unto themselves who who still could exact some revenge .

I was tried to fight the tweet, but I don't have IT in front of me but absolutely lariated response from same cop in the CEO of Polly market, this last name. Uh, he complain and he simply tweed new phone who is here after happened because they had taken his phone and his computer in our industry as a great sense of time, or even in the face of A. A lot of join I yet to love IT .

yeah I think I think my my favorite tube was uh with something basically saying like the F B I R total nubs. Like if this goes anywhere, you're gna have trump ed on here talking about how awesome polymer is unless five seconds next the revenue .

yeah I think this is going to help them get more all process, good process as they say, right? You know, we're out of order here. So this was kind of another political story is that we have this rumor that i've not seen with ted as fact, yet present trouble to eliminate all capital gains taxes on crypto currencies issued by U. S. Companies quietly.

If this is true, is the bigger story ever? Yeah, I mean, saying, hey, everybody who ever issued egypto can come back to the united states, start an actual company and we're going to have no taxes on anything that happens with IT oh, and by the way, if you want to just form me legal company here and launch a token, have added no capital against taxes. Is there anything that would ever be more bullish for the crypto side of the crypt industry? no. I mean.

look, this is the next thing to look for is whether the U. S. The regulatory sphere can actually get IT together to allow these tokens to Operate in the full spectrum.

They do you know security like things, right? Like are they allowed to Operate in this weird middle space? Is not clean cleanly in the categories of before uh and figured out, you know I think that that's that's what i'm watching for.

That is number one on my wish list for for the industry. Uh, you know in some ways outside of just share, share, not a taxi, is just let the things be what they are and and figure that out. As that happens.

I mean that the incentive for all of these americans who have left for foreign to come to amErica to incorporate, and for, you know, you and I did just launch friday five, join with with no fear, dey giler. The the implications of that, to me, are just absolute.

is starting yeah, i'll see this feels like one that's A I gona reserve my happen until .

we get a little bit more strategic, reserve my excitement. And finally, we are going to talk a little bit of micro fez power says no need to hurry rate cuts with economy strong, he sees inflation on sometimes plumping path towards two percent target, and the economy strength allows fed to approach decisions carefully. Markets don't love when power says I might not cut anymore.

And the new on there is that C, P M, T, P, I were actually up for the first time in a very long time. And ten years. Yells are booming, even though we've cut seventy five bits. So this is more complexity here.

The market conditions are so well suited to people style of running this policy right now. And what I mean by that is that power is conservative in the truest sense of the word, and that he doesn't want to move too fast on things, really wants to be data driver. He wants to see, like keep rather be a little bit behind, a little bit ahead.

Now, of course, he was way behind on inflation that caused a huge part of the problems that we that experience. However, when IT comes to the sort of the come down of that we've been living for so long in this world where some signals are pointing this way and some signals are pointing that way. And that is a really perfect environment for this extremely conservative, slow moving policy that, that he's enacted.

We're still in that situation. Just point IT out, you know the data is in all telling one story. It's telling multiple stories.

And as much as the markets would like lower rates, uh, there they're also doing fine where we are. So it's powers in a goldy locks moment for power, let's put in that way. And when whether that stays well will have to see.

well, we're done. But I do have something that we need to celebrate is a big day right now. And I just realized IT so happy, thirty six trillion dollar U.

S national debt to those who celebrate. We did IT. We ve finally got over that thirty six times and only took about eighty days. I think you get here from thirty five, but we can talk about the government all we we want. We can talk about the department of government efficiency but in the words of lin, all and nothing stops this train yeah that I mean.

it's the world we live in so we'll see .

thirty six trillion dollars let's if you get to thirty seven by next friday, five days, because we will be back next week. So exciting. Maybe we will miss the week after thanksgiving.

I know I will have to see, but next week and I will definitely be here. Guys follow in dw, the breakdown. That was a war. And sometimes it's just really hard to break this down and figure that out. I'm glad that I have you because I would have been completely lost today.

Yeah, this is a fun when I I listen. If if the next four years are all a all sort of a dynamism and volatility in k om, i'm here for IT me .

because at least have something to talk about, which was not the test of times the summer. All right, everybody, we will be back next week. Follow at w and the breakdown. Everything is thanks by 贝塔 盖茨。