NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The Northwest and Southwest Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Wemby, Jokic, SGA, and Luka
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This is our time of year. We love mid-October. NBA's coming. Football's here. College football, movies, TV. I love October. It's great. But you know what I really love? Breaking down the over-unders for four and a half hours with Joe House and our buddy Ryan Rosillo. We do this every year. House and I have been doing it dating back to the great old days. And we added Rosillo to the cast. It was kind of like when they added The Rock to the Fast and Furious franchise. Literally, like right down to the biceps.

But we are going to break down over three parts, which will be staggering. This is part one, part two, part three. We'll go up over the next 12 hours. I'm doing two divisions at a time, guessing the over-unders for every NBA team. Will they go higher? Will they go lower? We love doing it. And we love bringing in our friends from ProJab. ♪♪

We're here. It is Tuesday afternoon on the West Coast, the annual NBA Over Under podcast, the most exciting podcast of the year. 30 teams, three parts, three guys who have had a lot of success the last two years with this. Joe House, Ryan Rosillo. We are combined.

Last year, I was 6-1, House was 3-2, and Rosillo was 6-0 on locks. The year before, I was 6-1, House was 4-2, Rosillo was 3-2. That's like, that's not nothing. I will just start out by saying this. I don't feel as confident about this year. I thought this year was really hard, Rosillo. I had a hard time with this last night for a bunch of reasons. Google sucks.

You type in something like, hey, how's Kyrie at home games? And Stat Muse is like, I don't have that for you. But Elgin Hayes shot this on back to back. Elgin Hayes. Oh, my God. Stat Muse. Please print media. Please still exist. The NBA preview world is a.

fucking disaster right now. It's really bad. I couldn't even find those depth charts that I sent you guys last year where you could just screenshot each... They didn't even have those anymore. At one point, I went to the Pelicans depth chart and just had Zion and DeJounte, and I was like, has everybody already hurt? So I think I caught it in the middle of an update. Or then it'll send to these YouTube pages where, again, some videos are good, so I'm not talking about everybody else, but I'm like, if this guy has cried after a round one exit, I don't want his takes on his team. So...

It's a disaster trying to preview this stuff right now. That definitely wasn't Haas because Haas' team hasn't made round one in six years.

I am very nervous because I didn't think this year was very hard at all, but I am by far the most casual of anybody on this table. So I'm happy. Casual house feels fine. We've been together for three straight days and you were doing research the entire time. So I'm not going to accept casual house. It's just to try and get the names right. I mean, all I'm doing is researching the names. So we're doing, did you notice that bill just included the last two years instead of just last year? I did. Yeah.

I was trying to bump my numbers up. You're still 9-2 the last two years. What's the aggregate? 26 and something? I feel like two years ago when you were winning, we got like weekly updates on it. And it was very quiet this year. We're 26-8 as a group the last three years. I'm a team player. It's a lot of money. I'm like Jalen Brown. I just want to win titles. We're going to do two divisions to start out. So rude. It's not your team. That was a compliment. Jalen Brown, selfless.

Okay. He's not selfless. I mean, the Olympics thing felt that's what is left in everybody's mouth. I think that tastes. Not my mouth. I didn't care that he didn't play the Olympics. My mouth is fine. Thought he had a great summer. Great. We're starting with the Northwest because that is probably going to have the best regular season team in the league. The Oklahoma City Thunder. They're over under 57 and a half. How's that? I've been monitoring FanDuel.

And some of the overrunners have just been going up and down because they're getting like this action 10, nine days. So this was 56 and a half. It was 55 and a half. And now it's 57 and a half. They are minus 140 to win the division. They're plus 340 for best record. They are plus 130 to be the one seed in the West, which I think is my favorite bet of the three parts. 60 plus wins is around plus 180. Last year, there were 57 and 25.

and they added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Russillo, why isn't this over-under even higher than 57.5? Probably just because of the West. There's some good teams in the West that are going to be completely left out. And then, obviously, you just start with the uncertainty of whatever the injury storyline is. But I'm with you. There's no way they're going to be worse than...

So if it's Moose Sam, maybe they're just afraid to set a number 61 because it's just such a massive number. We know I'm not going to go through every team stats here, but their stat profiles off the charts, except for the rebounding rate, which was comically low for a team that was this good. And so.

they've addressed it. And they also addressed kind of the weird giddy problem that they had where they played them in a playoff game, then people were going to sag off of them. And now Caruso adds a spacing and a better defender, even if you still kind of like giddy skillset, which I think I do. Well, and then young guys who are now a year older, we got a little taste last year. House, this seems to me very similar profile to the Celtics last year.

Really good starting five. They have a bench, young team that's going to be durable for six months, which I think is important. And I think they hit this. Yeah. The only thing that I think is holding the number back, holding it down is they're so young. They just made it, you know, last year, made their first long gated run into the playoffs. Elongated. Yeah. Long gated run. I would say it was elongated run. I don't know if it was elongated. It was two rounds.

They made it into the playoffs. And that's keeping the number. I'm not counting that as your first malapropism.

They are long, though. They're so good on defense. They're so effing good on defense. They're going to be an incredible defensive team. And they have redundancy at all the positions. And they're young. And there's injury luck that they had last year. But even if that bites them in the butt this year, they're going to be effing good. Yeah, so they win. In 22, they won 24 games. 23, they won 40. Last year, they won 57 games.

And this year, I think they're somewhere in the first half of the 60s. I would say in the 62 range seems fair to me. But Rosillo, crunch time. I guess this is a playoffs question more than a regular season question. But you have Chet, you have Jalen Williams, you have Dort, you have Caruso, you have SGA, you also have Hartenstein now, you have Wallace, who I think is going to definitely probably be better than he was last year. I liked him last year. Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and other Jalen Williams. And I guess my question is, who is their five...

those six, seven times a year in the playoffs when it's like, all right, who's our five? And I think it would be Hartenstein and Chet with Jalen Williams, Caruso and SGA. But now I don't have Dort out there and I don't have Isaiah Joe at the shooting. It's a good problem to have.

But I just don't know what they're going to do. I guess the good thing is they go big, they can go small, they can have a shooting lineup, they can have a defense lineup. Who are they playing? I think you're right, House. At least they have the option now. And that was the thing that drove you crazy about it. And we spent time talking about it at the trade deadline. Yeah. Would just be, whatever you think of Jalen Williams too, space the floor a little bit. We know he's going to take a handful of annoying charges. But they didn't have it. And as much as we all like Chet,

There's just certain nights where it's like, this guy's getting his ass handed to him. Well, remember the rebounds in the Dallas series? I think I bet him to have the most rebounds in the Dallas series. I think he had like 20 total. Like he just got his absolute ass kicked by Lively and Gafford. So now they saw that. If the other team's big, they both play. If the other team's wing heavy, then Dora will be in. And they'll split it up. Can I make a nerdy basketball point? Yeah. One of the things I liked about Hartenstein, heading back to the Clippers,

was when they would put them like at top of the key and they would kind of run offense.

through him. And I was like, what's this? This guy's like Bill Walton at the top of the key. And they like, why don't they use this more? And then the Knicks really used it. And I wonder with OKC what that's because they were so Shea dominant last year. It was either Shea or Jalen Williams. I wonder like how much they're going to run through him and what it's going to look like. It's just an extra wrinkle that I think they needed. His awareness is a big and it's passing is like way. I didn't really catch on because I wasn't a Clippers season ticket holder. But some of the stuff that I saw with him with the Knicks where he

he'd be attacking the rim and big doesn't give it up there. And then there'd be somebody else crashing, which then encourages everybody else to go, Hey, follow Artenstein, like follow him, come to the other side, cut off of it. And he was just finding guys like wide open, like the fact that he could still allow that late pass right before it looked like he was going to go up at the rim contested.

And that's what Presti wants to do, man. He wants to load this team up. There's so many teams. The last one I'll make, at least on this part of it, there's so many teams. When I do the depth chart, I'm like, Denver would kill for that guy. That guy, oh my God, Denver would love him. And would Ken Rich Williams be with Denver? Like, yes. This is awesome. We now have a seventh man. Make shirts. House, is this the team? Is there another move with them? Because I don't want to go through all the picks they have. They have probably the best batch of picks.

I think of picks of all the teams that have a shitload of picks. They have, they could swap at the Clippers this year. They have Clippers unprotected next year. They have a bunch of stuff down the road. Dallas, top two protected. A couple Denver picks like near where Jokic might be like, you know, riding horses four years from now and not even playing in the Nuggets. Would you do anything?

Or is it early in the run here you don't need to? I don't think you need to. You just sit tight. You hope that you don't have any injuries. But if you do have injuries, you have all the flexibility in the world at the trade deadline or even before that to address it. You just try and run this team out there and let these kids win 64 games and grab the number one seed and get on to the playoffs. I think I agree with House. I would be willing to do something here, but it would have to be something else. I just don't know what it was. I went through the ringer top 100 and I'm like...

There was one guy. Who's the guy? Giannis. Granted, everyone would trade for Giannis, but if it goes badly, and we'll talk about this in part two, Milwaukee goes badly, and Giannis is like, I kind of want to keep winning titles, guys. Can you just send me to a place where I can win titles? And OKC's like, we have a lot of picks and a lot of stuff. If they sign Thanasis...

There's one more. I would do something only because like the picks are going to become so redundant. Yeah. Like we're all excited about their depth. We're excited about the youth and all of these things that, you know, it can't be somebody that's already blown out three franchises, right? Like Harden all of a sudden said, I think I want to go to the Thunder. I'd be like, I'm good. He's like, I'm ready to come home. Right. Full circle. Let's do this. Okay. So he's like, we're good. There's certain guys I would still stay away from, but I think I'd be more proactive even if,

Like, I think I'm picking the thunder to win the whole thing. So why would you want to disrupt that? I already have it at plus 750 and now it's a plus 625 because everybody's getting used to the fact that the NBA season is about to get here. This is why this win total, it was 55 and a half, you know, six weeks ago, it was 56 and a half, three days ago. And now it's 57 and a half. And all their one seed conference stuff. People are all seeing the same things. I'm not ready to announce my pick yet. There's one other guy that I thought would be interesting for them.

is Trey Murphy and New Orleans. Because if New Orleans, and we'll talk about them when we get to them in more detail, but if New Orleans is at a point where there's no market for Ingram, Murphy, they didn't sign to an extension, right? He's a restricted free agent in a year and you have to do that, but also what do you do with Ingram? And maybe the move is you can get more stuff for Trey Murphy and keep Ingram and Ingram's... From an asset standpoint, it makes more sense to

trade him. And then if you're OKC, that's exactly what you need. If you're going to add somebody to this team, it's somebody who's just dead eye, three-point shooter with size who can just come in and make shots. No, that would be unfair. I mean, that would be like, you know, the 2017-2018 Warriors. It's so stupid that they're this good already and they have all of these picks.

Like it's, that's Preston. I don't know that we're ever going to see a run of like roster creation also. And then we can do whatever we want. And I, I think in the years that we've talked about this in the past, like some people have described to me, certainly not Preston to me, but other people saying like, he's just going to keep,

drafting and drafting and drafting and like you're gonna know and maybe some people are lost in the shuffle and it'll feel like a wasted pick but like it just gives you that many more chances to hit on something really special instead of stuff like i love well to do stuff like the caruso thing where now we can just put wallace giddy in the giddy spot right right also get caruso and um they can just keep doubling tripling down they also have the ability to just

They're like the, it's like when you read those stories about Jeff Bezos, whatever that Island in Florida that he buys houses on. And he's like, yeah, I'm going to get that house too. And the guy's like, it's not for sale. And it's like, it is now how about 75 million? And the guy's like, I guess it is for sale. That's what OKC could do if they want one more shooter. And it's like, well, we're not trading Trey Murphy. What if we give you three firsts and we'll give you, uh, Wiggins and a pick swap that. And they're like, oh, I guess we're trading them.

They have the ability to do that. So I think we all see the same stuff. I don't see a scenario where they're not a 60-win team unless somebody gets hurt. It's the only seven of their top eight guys played 75 or more games last year. Jalen Williams of the eight top rotation guys played the least, and it was still 71 games. I will keep making this point as we go through the teams. You saw it last year with the Celts. These younger teams with durable young stars are just better bets with overs.

Whereas we'll get to maybe there's a team where the best part of the team is announced. I'm no longer playing back to backs for the rest of my career. Who would do that? That might be a team that I'd be less excited to take. All right. So we're all in over for OKC. I'm just going to say it now. This is a lock for me.

Coming out of the gate with a locker Rooney. You guys don't have to decide now, but that's going to be a lock. Okay. It's on the lock list. Yeah. It just makes it easier this week. So the next one, all of a sudden it's going to get harder here because Minnesota is our next one. They're over under has bumped up to 51 and a half. It was down this morning to 50 and a half. Then it went back up to 51 and a half.

Minnesota action all over the place. Division plus 270, conference 5-1, title 10-1. One seed 13-1. If you think they can win 60, plus 560. Now this team, they lost Carl Anthony Towns and Kyle Anderson. They added Julius Reno, Dante DiVincenzo, and Rob Dillingham. Rosillo, what does the team built to beat Denver do after they actually beat Denver?

Well, I don't know what the cat market would be because talking to teams, it was like, oh, a cat got traded. And then it was like, well, are you upset that –

The front office didn't shop him more. It wasn't like, why didn't we get a call? This wasn't Powell to the Lakers. This wasn't the guy in your fantasy league who made a trade and didn't tell anyone else that everyone's mad at him? Yeah, because there would be teams like, yeah, we don't really know that we wanted Cat anyway, but I guess you just wanted to be asked if you wanted him. But they apparently really wanted DiVincenzo, who, by the way, has turned into Larry Bird in the last two weeks. I love it. Chirping everybody. Is this...

I like DiVincenzo a lot. Me too. Is this a runaway train of like, because it's kind of the cat DiVincenzo trade. Wow. Julius is upset about that. Well, Julius is an expiring and it's kind of like, show us if you're going to stick around or not. Are you really going to play Randall, Gobert, and Nas Reed to close a playoff game? You're not. You're probably going to play Randall and Nas Reed. Depends on who they're playing. So the fact that they got DiVincenzo, the more I stare at this,

It just seems like the Knicks called them for Towns for two straight months. Are you going to put Dante in there? Nope. Okay. All right. Hanging up. Then like two days later, hey, what about Towns? You ready yet? Putting Dante in there? Nope. And then something snapped when I think they realized Robinson was just not coming back anytime soon. And they got him. I think it really hurts the Knicks. But this guy is kind of what they needed.

Right? He's a guy who doesn't need the ball that much, who can handle the ball, who's unafraid in big moments, who can save them on the nights that Edwards doesn't have it or Edwards is being shut down or Edwards is in foul trouble. I just, it's weird to say this, but I kind of like him on that team more than Towns. And I know Towns is way better.

Yeah. Talent for talent. It feels insane to go like, I kind of get it right when the trade happened and you're looking at the pieces, you're thinking, okay, well talent in, even if you don't like towns, you feel like New York wins the trade. Um,

And especially when you look at the need for the Mitchell Robinson timeline, Hartenstein's gone. So you're like, this is really nice because now you have this stretch five option who doesn't have to be the primary. It's a better team for him. There's no question. The Knicks are a better team for Tim. We'll see because I kind of can't stand him. It's been established. We've discussed it many times. There's a record. But I'm with you. I thought there were times with the Timberwolves last year where it was like,

You know, Jane's not really an attacking on-ball guy consistently enough. I think it's why they, you know. Remember he died in the Dallas series. Yeah, and Conley just isn't really a guy who's going to be breaking down a ton of dudes off the dribble anymore. I think it's why they were like, hey, we don't have a ton of flexibility anymore, so let's go after Dillingham. So an on-ball creator, and not that DiVincenzo's going to be running everything, but he can just do so many different things. It's just more, it's more uncertainty for the defense. It's an incredibly good fit.

It's such a good fit. And in addition to all of the basketball skill and everything, what we've seen in the last two weeks, that swagger works. It's going to work with this team. It's going to help Anthony Edwards. It's going to help, you know, because Anthony Edwards is ready to put his imprint on the league. You went through. Did you see that clip? Tell me about the clip. There was. Which clip? Random preseason game. What was it? Sunday? Yes. One of the great days in New York sports history. Yeah.

And he just, he gets caught with Brunson on the side. Oh yeah. That one. You saw that one. And he's just like, I'm shutting this guy down. And Brunson's doing his Brunson. They clear out for him and he's doing all these different things. And Ant's just with them the whole way. And he's talking shit to him and then forces a terrible shot, which the Knicks actually get the rebound. But after he did it, Ant did like the, I just hit a walk-off home run in baseball, kind of double fist pump scream. Like,

Like, it's like, I fucking locked that guy down. I mean, if you're looking for like different types of lineups for a series where it's starting to go sideways because Gobert is getting exploited or whatever.

I like their flexibility more. It also means more Nas Reed. Like, if you look at last year, Nas Reed played 81 games and still played less total minutes than Cat because number one pick faced the franchise there for a little while, turns the keys over to Ant because he had to because Ant was the better player. So I think Ant did a really good job of massaging all that stuff. But then it's like, I was okay giving the keys to Ant, but now I'm giving them to fucking Nas Reed. You know? So, like, what's going on here? And, you

You know, Cat, they were 10 games over 500 without him. Right. And also he got hurt every year for 15 to 30 games or whatever. I am an over for this house and I battled on it, but they were 56 and 26 last year.

And we didn't even talk about Randall yet. And Randall is such a divisive guy with the Knicks fans. And I have Knicks fans in my life who are hardcore. You guys don't understand. Randall's really good. He did all this stuff. And then I have other fans in my life who are like, get that guy out of here. But it's playing. He's in a contract year.

He brings something different to them. And, you know, I think it gives them a lot of Gobert insurance. There's a mutual... Where you can go Nas and Randall at crunch time and you just don't have to worry about the Gobert piece. Yeah, I like that Chris Finch and...

randall are on the same page in terms of the incentives right they have the same incentive in terms of the outcome for the player and the team this season so it lines you're going to get the very best version of randall in my humble opinion because i have immense respect i would say 90 chance of that 10 chance of people are like man randall looks bummed why would he be bummed not enough he's not playing crunch time

If it's a weird fit. My immediate reaction was the ball stopper piece of this with Edwards. And we love Edwards, I think.

as much as anyone, but there's, he gets a little ball stoppy from time to time. And then Randall definitely does. And I just, the two of them together is weird. Like not only the need and the positional fit and the stretch five that makes the Celtics have to defend a stretch five. Like if that's how the playoffs play out, like there's a bunch of reasons why I still like this for the Knicks, even with my cat doubt. And I know we'll probably do more on this then. So it's a bit redundant, but Randall ball stopping, uh,

was another thing that I loved for the Knicks here because it's a real thing. He's incredibly talented. When you look at all those years, he's putting up 20-plus, I think 26 in one season. You're going, man, this guy's talented and he can really pass. He's always been able to pass going back to college. But then there's a limitation on who you are as a team with him in the number one option. And even in the rare times the Knicks had Brunson, OG, and Randall all together, it's like an incredible record. It's an awesome net rating.

I think if it had played out more and more and you'd had playoff moments, I think they may have gotten in each other's way. And now I think it's more defined. Yeah. I'm a Randall apologist. I think that when we go back and look at those years of him with the ball stopping, he was the only option. He knew it. That was it. There's something to be said for you're putting up 24, 10 and five for a couple of years in a row. He was all NBA a couple of times like he's, you know, and he might turn out to be the underrated guy in the trade, which is weird because he's good.

But, but we could be in December and people going, wow, Randall's really good. Didn't think he'd be good at this good on the Timberwolves. It's like, yeah, he's good. But I could also see another version where it's like, wow, this is still clumsy and it's mid December and they haven't really figured out how to integrate all these guys. A quick question is towns Ewing theory eligible for either of you guys? No.

Okay. I think they were... There's a number on pick. He's probably headed to the Hall of Fame with his stats because everyone makes the Hall of Fame now. Just pull up his numbers. Michael Cooper just made it. Pull up his numbers real quick in the playoffs against Dallas. Are you with me on...

on pushing back on his self-proclaimed best shooting big of all time. You know, I need a little more time to think about it. Can I have one more day to mull it over? Slow release catching threes are a little different than off the dribble pull-ups from Durant. I think there's a slightly different, like how, why did that become like, well, he's pretty tall and he shoots it from three pretty good.

Well, I mean, he's right. One of the biggest reasons I wrote my book was because I didn't want people in the year 2050 to think Carl Malone was the best 12 players of all time. Good job. I just, I had to do it. Good job. It was really drove me to 700 pages. The next generation of me, I would hope, I would hope proving that Carl Anthony Towns and Dwight Howard weren't as actually impactful as the numbers and the all MBAs made it seem would be a catalyst for them.

Cause there's going to be, he is definitely going to be 25 years from now. Like, wow, look at those towns numbers. He must've been amazing. He is the epitome of this. Like whenever, when I, I did this when Derek Rose retired,

He wins the MVP that year. And you understood why he won it. And he won it in an overwhelming first place vote. It was like 78 to 5 or something crazy. It was even bigger than that. It was a massive spread. It was like single digits for LeBron and then I think 100 votes or something for Derrick Rose. And in the moment, you're like, hey, you know what? It makes kind of sense. The one seed young guy is new. They won 60 games. LeBron is...

you know, being held to a LeBron standard from the previous two years when he won the MVP. You go back and look at that on basketball reference right now and you're like, what the fuck was wrong with you guys? How? I know. And I wrote a column picking Rose like passionately. So I like to believe that in the moment

you can you could still be right even if the data years later goes that doesn't make any sense and i think towns is like the the opposite of that where people are gonna go look at these this guy was nasty you know well with that said perfect team for him right now if it's in there if if he can be an actual impactful guy who can play four straight playoff rounds bridge is gonna take four shots a game we're gonna save this for the next yeah let's save for next last question before we get the overs um

So Edwards, 12 plus playoff games, 27 plus points per game, 44% field goal, 22 and under. Just the guys of all time who did this. Amari, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James, Kobe, Luka, and Kevin Durant. So we went from like, we were going nuts about Anthony Edwards. And I was like, slow down. Stop with the MJ stuff. Slow down. And I was like, well, fucking A. He's like killing everybody. Like,

Can we at least talk about how it's like, it feels a little MJ-ish without, without offending MJ. It would be cool. And then round three, it went backwards. And then in the Olympics, you know, he's basically a heat check guy in the Olympic team. But now I think it's kind of been forgotten how awesome he was. And I wonder, does it go up a level? Does it actually, as good as last year was, was the playoffs to start as something else? And that's,

The number one reason I'm going over 51 and a half because I think he really will give a shit week after week during the NBA season, which is what you need for overrunners. Yeah, I wondered with the Dallas series, you know, and the mistakes, there's some big mistake possessions there with him. Yeah. But as you pointed out, House, I mean, Cat was 38 and 24 splits against Dallas. If Cat is just

hitting a few more of these open shots, they might be playing for an NBA championship. I know it doesn't feel that way with the way Luka and Dallas all kind of gelled together until they ran into Boston. But I'm with you. I'm going over, even though it's like you're sitting here at the West going, man, the reason Vegas is putting these projections lower than you would think at the top is that you have to find, like, where are you finding all of these wins with how good like one through 13 is?

But I don't want to go under 51 and a half for the ant point that you just made. That's so good. It's an easy over for me. I don't think the West is one through 13 good, which is fun. It's we're about to get to let's take a break and we'll talk about the Nuggets.

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Coming back, we're going to talk about the Nuggets. I just quick Rob Dillingham thing off of Minnesota. Yes. Fascinating preseason stuff from him. And I don't know what we're going to get from him during the season, but I'm excited for it. There's a couple moments where it's like, whoa, they could actually use this. This is unpredictable guy who can just go by people and do things. They're a good front office. So the fact that they're that proactive and then knowing with all the pick tax still due on the Gobert deal.

that when they did that, it was like, you know what? They saw, it makes you feel good when you're watching me, but like they need somebody else who's going to attack from the other side with the ball in his hand. And also what's Conley going to look like eight months from now? Exactly. He was running on fumes round three. If Dillingham doesn't go to Kentucky, is Reed Shepard the number one pick? Well, I think now that we know what we know, well, House and I, we're going to talk about Richa Shea Island later. I don't know if you've been on Redfin. Yeah.

No, this is unbelievable. Yeah. I mean, you want to talk about an all-time pivot in two and a half months. Is it really a pivot? With more data. I didn't have an opinion. I'm out on trying to predict foreign guys. The only thing I knew for sure is that the Wizards shouldn't take Alex Sarg. Where's Scoop from? You didn't like the Croatian? It turns out Scoop's from Bulgaria. Now it makes sense. Now it makes sense. All right, the Denver Nuggets. Their over-under is 50 and a half, which seems offensive because Nikola Jokic is in the prime of his career.

And he's one of the best 15 players of all time. And they still have Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. Christian Brown and Jamal Murray. Now they have Russell Westbrook, which I can't wait to talk about. Jokic has never played with an all NBA player. And I'm starting to wonder if he ever will, because we thought Murray was going to take a step up and it went backwards in the playoffs. And then the Olympics, I don't know what happened. Was he out of shape? Was he hurt?

But it was awful. It was so awful. And now they're kind of stuck with their contracts unless they can figure out a Porter trade because he makes a lot. Gordon's got an extension coming up. They just paid Murray. This is kind of the team. And Jokic might go through his entire career without ever playing with an NBA guy, which if you look at the 15, 16 best guys ever, all of them have played with awesome guys and not him. It's a bummer. I mean, they,

I understand the thought process that led the Nuggets to signing Michael Porter Jr. to the contract that they signed him to. But to me, that's like the Fulcrum contract. That's the thing. They invested so much in that guy that it prevented them. They lost, you know, in consecutive years, guys that helped them win a ring. Right. And what they have coming up

Talent-wise, it's just not there. Well, and they're missing picks, too, because they have some picks going out the window later in the decade. So it's going to be really hard for this team to get better, which is how we get to our guy Russ. He's back. See him set a screen the other night? That was fucking awesome. He's like, what are these? Six teams in seven years. Off-ball screens? You can do these? Yeah.

Six teams in seven years. The 2017 MVP. I think there should be a Hall of... Like, even though he's an MVP and he's going to go into the Hall of Fame, I think if you're on that many teams in that short of time, you should have to wait a year. To not be in the Hall of Fame? Yeah. Like, hey, you're eligible this year, but you were... People were talking about you being one of the best players in the league and you ended up in that many different cities in that short amount of time. But all for the same reasons. Teams that... Teams that...

talked themselves into what he does. I thought he was actually really good in the Clippers regular season. Which team did he make worse?

I'm going to try and do a little Westbrook. Well, House is your pro-West because he made the Wizards good. He taught Denny Obdia how to be a professional early in his career. The guy wasn't going to learn it from the organization. Call a fan plaque? Well, but look, you know, the guy's got a career out of it. What is he doing, meth, if Russ isn't there? It's impossible to say in Washington. Meth isn't big in Washington. If only he had been there for Jordan Poole in time. Oh, God. Oh, my God. Who knows? Russ is...

Playoff teams since 2017 when you won the MVP, starting that playoff year. What do you think their record is in the playoffs? Russell Westbrook's playoff teams. It's got to be a handful of games below 500, maybe 10 games below 500. Well, I'll give you this. 44 games total. What's the record? Well, if it's 44, it's like, I don't know, 27 and 17. I was going to say 17 and 27. 15 and 29. It's 13 and 31. Oh, my God. It's even worse. Yeah. It's not good.

But it's the whole point. So like, I get what LA did because they had health concerns and it was like,

Hey, his energy alone, but they did it because of the resume and the profile and because active players are so enamored with Westbrook. They're not watching him critically. They're not watching how he fit in. If he has the ball every single time down, he is so overwhelming athletically and physically and his, his attitude, he will get you production as you saw in Washington. Okay. That's what we wanted from scoot. Right. Um,

But once he is off the ball, it's a waste of everybody's time. And Denver is so thin in the bench. I think they were one sort of desperate to think they were adding somebody. Apparently Jokic wanted him there. They even gave him like the second year option on it when it was kind of an odd deal. They're so thin that I understand why Denver's doing it. But I would just simply ask this closing big time games.

You're not taking the ball out of the best player in the league's hands. So what is Westbrook doing to your spacing? We've already seen that not work at all of these other stops. Once he had to be off the ball, he's not a useful player. Can I give you the zag? Sure. Can you imagine how amazing it would be if Russell Westbrook at this point of his career, who's in the 2008 draft, just turned into this amazing Jokic teammate? We were like, whoa!

I didn't realize he could do all this. This is like Bill Walton on the 86 Celtics. Look at these back cuts. No. Why? Was he hiding it? That's what I mean. I also look. It would be an amazing sack. It was in here all along. He couldn't get anything done in the Dallas series when they needed him desperately and they became unhinged. They did. They couldn't play him. So like that's my last. Everybody knows how I feel about him as a basketball player, but like that last stretch against Dallas. So if I gave you a house, I gave you.

Westbrook is a playoff asset. Westbrook is waived in January so he can catch on with another team. You can only pick one of those two options. What would you pick? Playoff asset, because I think this is going to be the greatest feat of the Joker's career.

Who has Russell Westbrook played with at this stage? You got to play with LeBron. That's pretty good. You got to play with KD. That's pretty good. But the Joker's an entirely different animal. All we've seen, the thing that all of us love the most about him. Paul George, Durant, Harden. They're good. Why? They're good. Everybody's enamored with him. They're good. Yeah, Bradley Beal. The Joker's different. The Joker sets his guys up.

The Joker is team first. Maybe it's 15 minutes a game where it's just like when Joker's not in the game, can you just do the offense? That's fine. That might be what it is. For how screwed they are with the roster and the money and the cost, they couldn't match the Bruce Brown thing. That's different. The KCP price is kind of scary for a guy that even in a playoff game, you'd be like, did he play last night? I thought that number was too high. What was he, 7.8 points a game in the playoffs?

If he had zero points in a playoff game, would you be shocked? Did he play last night All-Stars for you? Totally. And yet...

You look at what's happened here, and Calvin Booth has been drafting guys. You're like, okay, that guy's played a little bit more. And then you have just that age-old conflict between front office and coach. There was a couple years ago where they were so banged up. They didn't have really any offense to close games. And Malone still wouldn't play Michael Porter Jr. because he was so mad about his defensive lapses. And Porter Jr. was atrocious defensively. Terrible instincts, always made the wrong read, would jump in his lane that he wasn't supposed to.

So Malone, hardcore, old school, OG type of coach, like I can't have those kind of defensive mistakes reward you with minutes. It's like, dude, you don't have anybody else who can get a bucket. And so I think the disconnect from what I can tell is that Booth is, he keeps drafting all these guys. Like Strother maybe has a chance. Peyton Watson's like fun and athletic, but none of these guys are shooters. Christian Brown's going to go up from, I don't know, is he going to play 35 minutes a game now? He needs him to be the 35 minute game starter. So bad.

They also talked themselves into Sarich, which is kind of like he's like discount Westbrook for teams talking themselves into him. Remember the Warriors last year? Like Sarich. Like in November. Good passers. Oh, Sarich. Also second rookie of the year voting. Yeah. That was a little shard for you. Remember that? No. Keep it moving. So over under is 50 and a half. And this comes down to if Murray sucks.

Or is just can't get it going this year's late bloomer. It's going to be really tough to hit this, but they were 57 and 25 last year. I just can't go against Jokic. And I don't, I also kind of deep down don't want to, but 51 and 31. I mean, he's the best part of his generation at this point. I just can't.

I feel the same way. I did this last year with Luca and we argued about it. And you were like, that number's too low. I just can't believe Luca is not going to win that many games. And I look at Jokic. I'm like, it's going to have, so we'd have to have 32 losses to lose this. It's going to lose 32 times. Guy plays every game.

So I'm going slight over. I don't feel great about it. Yeah, I'm going under. I think the ceiling, the regular season ceiling for this team is 50. I don't think that there's a move out there because of the contract constraints, but they need talent. They're just not good enough. You can't play Christian Brown however many minutes they're going to play him. They don't have... They're going to. Yeah. Murray's not good. He can't be healthy and he's not good. So I wish...

Well, Murray is good. He just hasn't been. When is he good? When's he going to be good? It's been six, seven months. Six, seven months. How many games is he going to play? I'm not giving up on Murray. He was so good two years ago. Yes, he was. We're betting on this year, not two years ago. I thought there was a when was he good throw in there. Yeah. No, I think you phrased it wrong. We're using present tense. Sure. All right. Present tense. The Canada was tough. House is so shook from...

No, I bet against him. I won money betting against Canada. No, but just him not playing fourth quarters in the Olympics. Nothing. Although I guess Jason Tatum didn't either. What do you have, Russo, though? Over or under? I hate going under Jokic. I hate it. Yeah, it's too hard. And if you look at the last four years, 57 wins, 53 wins, 48, 47. So, I mean, that's a little irrelevant. But there's a couple stats here that just kind of shock you when you do their resume. They were last in three-point attempts per game.

And then they were also 29th in free throw attempts per game. So you're like, where? Like now it's another year with like, whatever you think of KCP is we, I think we're fair about it. You have to guard them. There's still other nights there. And when you look at the depth chart, you're like, all right, back up Russ, Strother, Hunter Tyson, who I did love in the combine, Peyton Watson, Sharich, or Zeke Notch. Like,

I'm going to go. Sounds like an under. I hate it. Well, I can't go over, over, over Minnesota, Denver, and OKC. So I got to pick one to be an under. And it was a coin toss between Minnesota and Denver. So I'll go under. I have some unders coming for the rest of the division. So I felt fine about it.

I can't go under on Jokic when he's in the prime of his career. I just can't. Mike Malone, that's probably right. I don't feel good about it. It's fine. It's one of my least favorite. Eight straight overs. Eight straight overs for Malone. So, you know, you're bucking the trend. The under is popular. It's minus 132. So everybody's plowing into the under. The public's plowing into the under. I would not bet this. All that depth that we're talking about, like, may not. But if Murray...

I mean, even with weird Murray seasons, like remember the start of last year? Yeah. And they still won 57. I know. And they should have been the one seed. I guess the best thing for this is Jokic plays, right? Yeah, sure. It's a good case. And by the way, two years ago, when he lost MVP, he took under 15 shots a game. Right. What it really is, is Michael Porter Jr. making a leap that we're still kind of waiting. We're being traded for Brandon Ingram. Yeah, I don't know. What does that happen? Every quote I get from that guy, I'm like,

I'm just saying, like, how do you get to a mid 50 win team? There could be like a draft of when you hear a quote from this person.

That'd be good. Hoops. Just anonymous quotes. There's usually like an Andrew. Like, Oh, that sounds like Dwight. I'll go. Huh? This sounds like a podcast. What do you, you guys have shows Utah jazz over under 27 and a half. They were 31 and 51 last year. They added Cody Williams. Who's had a couple good Twitter montage videos so far. Um,

I don't know what the fuck this team's plan is. They just have a shitload of picks and a bunch of young guys. They did not want to trade Laurie Markkinen. I also don't think they want to be good. And my assumption is they're going to do what they did last year.

which was they started out 26 and 26. They've done that the last two seasons. But then they traded guys who were helping them. Yeah. Including your guy Fontenacchio. Yeah. They finished five and 25 down the stretch. I feel like that's who we're getting this year, not the 26 and 26 team. So this is going to be an under for me, fellas. Where do you stand, Rosillo? Do you know why they signed Markkinen?

Yeah, because he's really good. And they also did it in a way where he's ineligible to be traded now this year. Right. Why would you do that? Because I think for whatever they were getting for him, they already have a bunch of picks. Nobody made an awesome offer. I think people did make an awesome offer. I don't think they wanted to trade him. Why? Who made an awesome offer? Golden State? I think they acted like they were going to trade him. And then we're like, nah, we're not.

Just to like, I think Ainge fucks with everybody. Maybe to what end? But he did this in Boston too. He'd be like, we're rebuilding. Ah, we're trading for Isaiah Thomas. He was just all over the place. Because Isaiah Thomas was free. But he's an asset guy. Right. Yeah. He's like, I think marketing is an asset. If you're not going to bowl me over, I'm keeping him.

Yeah, but they're in a weird spot because they still owe the pick from a Derek Favors salary dump from 21. So they owe it to OKC, of course. It's one through 10 protected this year, one through eight protected next year. So there's our answer. They have to be in the bottom 10, which is the biggest reason to take them. But it's 27 and a half. I know, exactly. That's probably in the bottom 10. That's 31 wins last year after, as you said, a disastrous...

torch job to it. Like Colin Sexton was good last year. Some of these young guys like either Keontae or

Taylor. You know, Filipowski is pretty incredibly, does this team have the most guys that you've watched tape on trying to figure out how much you like them? Yeah. Cause like, I'm going to crunch some sense of bargain. Juzang. I got Jason Preston had the commercial that everybody Cody Williams. You were fascinated by. Yeah. I didn't really get that one. And then the Filipowski stuff, it was like, we'll take you buddy. Yeah.

I'm enriched by having John Collins player option hanging around I bet he exercises it playing 26 and a half million I bet we're reporting right now John Collins is taking over credit to agent at XL I'm going over Will Hardy fuck it let's roll oh my god really you're going over yeah they're too well coached I think

I think this is the last. I think they told Will Hardy one more year of this and then we'll start trying to be good. Would be my guess. Walker Kessler. Imagine what Denver would do for Walker Kessler. Well, I think the Knicks tried to get him. The Knicks tried to. They were like pursuing him all summer before they finally, I don't want to say settled. Lowry only played 55 games last year too and they still won 31. Yeah. But the West wasn't what it is this year. I don't think. Well, it wasn't terrible. It's not like it's a completely different landscape. That's better.

Okay. But I mean, one of the other things that was kind of weird about this season, which should make it easier is that there wasn't that much movement. Like a lot of these teams feel pretty similar. I don't know if you guys felt that house did house breeze through this Utah's. We have all these different teams that have all these picks and it's just like, they have a ton of picks. I don't love the Utah picks. You mentioned they, they have basically all their own except for the one you mentioned.

They have a bunch of mini and Cleveland picks for the rest of the decade, which I'm just not that excited about. Cleveland locked down their team. They're good. We'll be talking about them later. Minnesota, I'm pretty bullish on for the rest of the decade. And that's really all they have. So the big one they have in 27, they can swap picks with the Lakers. And God only knows who's going to be in the Lakers. Is it top four protected? I think. Is that what it is? Top four? That's what I have. Yeah, you're right. The research...

But other than that, this weekend was... So they have a good batch of picks, but not any pick. Like, the OKC's like, we have these two Clipper picks, and they're incredible. And we could probably trade this for something. Things can change, though, quickly. Because you're also talking about, like, 27, 28, 29 unprotected. Minnesota's, I think, a top five protected in 20. I mean, who knows? This league...

Something really weird would have to happen, I would say, with Minnesota. Because Edwards, by the end of this decade, would be 27. Edwards would be a Laker, dude. You think? I just wanted to see your face. Trying to think how that's going to be aggregated. Rusillo says Edwards. No. Laker. Simmons disputes Rusillo rumor. Simmons eviscerates Rusillo rumor. Without words. Simmons torches Rusillo take. Future in doubt. So you're going over...

Will Hardy. Okay. I am under. Rolling up the sleeves. Guy loves a challenge. House, you're the tiebreaker. I am over. Just out of respect. I'm winning this one. Over, brothers. It's fine. Here's the thing. There's only two bad teams in the West. There's between five and seven teams that are bad in the East. And Utah needs to be in the top 10 to keep that pick. And I think that has to be somewhere in the 20s. I think 30 wins is still bottom 10.

Well, here's the team that's not going to win 30 games. The Portland Trailblazers. Their over-under is 20. They're 80-1 to make the playoffs. 80-1. They were 21-6 to win last year. They added Klingin.

They added Haas' guy, Abdia. You ended up loving Abdia. He made a giant leap last year. He really played hard. The contract's incredible, by the way. Do you realize what that contract is? Four years, $55 million, and it actually goes down. So in the fourth year, it's $11.875. So it's the Bub Carrington pick, and then second most favorable of all these three picks in 29. They lost Malcolm Brogdon. They gained Robert Williams back of Celtics fame.

They added your guy, Devante Graham, who swung the playoffs when he made a couple shots against Denver last year. He'll get you 20 if you get him the looks. First question. Are these the 2024-25 trade machine all-stars? Totally. Oh, yeah. Wow. I'll give you... Because I have four teams that fit that. DeAndre Hayton, 34 and 35 next two years. Anthony Simons, 26 and 28. I can offer you Jeremy Grant, 29, 32, 34.

Denny Avdi, a great contract. Russell just spelled it out. Rob Williams, need a big guy? I think this team is going to... You don't think he's going to play? Well, he's hurt. Even when he's healthy, he's hurt. Remember the 22 finals? He feels like a February... But he feels like a February trade. So they have multiple guys that I think will be available. Duvall-Breath. I kind of liked him a little. Theibel. You know who's that guy they have that I love? Kamara? Yeah. They won't trade him. He's not available.

But I'm going under. I think this team's going to suck and we'll be the worst team in the West. House? It's under, yeah. No hesitation, reservation. Chauncey Billups got into the Hall of Fame. That's going to be his...

you know, the thing he gets to hang his hat on for the season. There was a funny thing at the end of last year that I know we're still in love toward Deandre and put together like five, six weeks of good games. You want it? You want the numbers? You want the splits? But then puffed his chest out a little bit about it. Oh yeah. You're finally getting to see the real me. People don't understand that I've accomplished everything except individual accomplishments and team accomplishments. Right. So, uh, they didn't say that, but

I'm waiting for a player to actually say it at some point. So Aiton is still only 26. Yeah. For the all-star game, he just didn't shoot a lot and other guys just shot all the time. So he's 14, 10 to 56% from the floor, only 18 games after the all-star break, but he was 23, 12 and a half, a couple of assists, 58%. He doesn't shoot any free throws anymore. Not that he was a high free throw guy, even in Phoenix, but

but there'll be somebody that will talk themselves into him as an option because there's some teams that need centers out there. Now, I don't know, you know, you're talking about a significant investment in that. I mean, like New Orleans, a team that does not have a center doesn't have one right now. Yeah. They would have to get kind of creative. Of course, nothing's really impossible in this league, but I'm not, I don't think Aiden necessarily loves the whole part of you've got to go out there and

There's fans outside of the playing part? Yeah. See, there's 20,000 fans that are paid to be here. He's so talented. He's so gifted physically and all this stuff. Like, look at those numbers he gave you post-All-Star. So he had a nice run. And then, you know, Scoot had a nice little pre- and post-split where he basically just shot more. Wait, can you hold this? Yeah, go ahead. No, the Scoot part. Yeah, you're right. That should be the end of the Portland segment.

How so? They've been better off taking the Miami trade. Oh, that's a great question. Hero, Jovich, Duncan Robinson, two Miami firsts and one Miami swap. And instead they did Aiton, Drew Holiday, a Milwaukee 2029 first and two Milwaukee swaps. So I'm going to make the case they actually still did the right thing. I just don't think they got enough for Drew. I agree with this. If it weren't Miami, would you say? I think, so here's the thing. I was just telling somebody this the other day.

Miami and their whole little annoying media machine that they have fucked up that Portland situation to that point. Joe Cronin and the Portland people were like, we are never trading with those fucking guys. And they ended up making the Dame trade. They get drew back. And now they're like, Drew's like, I want to be in a contender. Like we got you. We're going to trade you a contender.

And they still won't trade him to Miami, the team that probably needed him the most, right? And all the shit Miami did that summer led to them not getting Drew Holiday, who also would have blocked Boston from getting Drew Holiday. Instead, they had to settle for Rozier in February. What did they do? When you say all the shit they did, like they tried to force Portland's hand. What are you talking about? You were there that summer. They did 90 different ways about how fucking stupid Portland was for not taking their hero deal. And we were calling it out on the podcast.

All these different media people that, let's be honest, are a little Miami Heat friendly, and they were super aggro about it. Well, but everybody else is wrong was my favorite part. Yeah. It was like, no, everybody else is wrong. So your bias is the right one. Got it. And I think Portland got pissed off because the fact that they didn't trade Drew to Miami tells me they were pissed off. Plus, I've heard they were pissed off. Look, Hero was so bad in that Celtics series.

Especially like, I mean, Miami was struggling for bodies. So normally you wouldn't be like, hey, you're checking. We have to put Caleb on Tatum. So you're going to be playing Tatum.

you're going to be guarding Jalen Brown. And those games to start, you'd be like, this is ugly. Like, Hero's a really talented guy, but he probably profiles, like, a little lower than he does. He wasn't what Portland needed. I'll tell you that much. And then with the contract, like, I could totally understand Portland going, we don't need another, like, guy that just kind of comes in that's sort of a high-level shot-making, like, flawed player and all these different things. So I...

I don't know. The Aiton part of it, it depends on what you think of Aiton. It depends on what you think of Aiton. Would you rather have Aiton or him? I think you and I were higher on him than most. A couple of years ago. I feel like they needed to nail that holiday trade. And maybe the other team was the Clippers because I think the Clippers were pretty desperate pre-hardened trade to do something, make something happen. And that could have been another place for him. All right. This is an important part of the podcast. It's a new gimmick for the over-enders. We're doing an investor relations call.

I didn't tell you this was coming. It's Scoot Henderson stock. We do this call once a year. We have some Scoot stock. I wish we only do it once a year. I feel like we only do it seven times. Some call in the meeting in order. Priscilla, how are we feeling? We feel like...

The analysis was correct, but the outcome is wrong. Tremendous upside. Still, all the upside that we imagined is there. We have a guy, Jalen Suggs, down at our Orlando branch who still is bullish on Scoot, so we're going to follow his lead on this trade. Yeah.

Got to be honest, the goggles freaked me out a little. I wish I had known about the eyesight before we bought that big position on Scoot. The breakout video of the preseason stuff where he said, what did you learn? He was like, the food scared me a bit. I didn't see that one. It's not wrong. Which food? They were like, what did you learn about your first year? He's like, all the food. I was like, fuck. Damn it. How about slashing kick?

I'm not giving up, but we can't, we can't know. Yeah. There's no way you would just be getting out of it. It's a hold position. It's a hold position. It's a hold position. Okay. I would tell investors though, we've got to diversify it a little bit. The DASDAQ 500 is looking good guys. Let's get back in. 20% of your position on this. He was terrible, but here's a stat for you. Yeah.

So if you go per 100 possessions, all players in the NBA, Scoot was the second worst in turnovers per 100 possessions. Now, he did have that second half little...

There were some nights, but some of that's fool's gold. Sometimes the biggest mistakes in evaluating are made during those last six weeks of the NBA season where guys are mailing it and you don't really know who's playing. But at least we had something, right? At least it's like Caleb Williams against the bad NFL teams after a tough couple games. You can't even like... Put Caleb Williams in front of three bad defenses, you start feeling better about Caleb Williams. Right. I can't even enjoy the bad games or the bad opponents with Caleb Williams. So anyway, second worst on the turnover per 100. Guess who's number one?

So we're good. Wow. All right. We're adjourning the meeting. Over. Over? Oh, yeah. Over. So you went over on everybody except Denver. Did I? Yeah. Over on Portland? Yeah. Why? It's a low number. It is a low number. It's true. Yeah. Well, it's not low enough in my opinion. We're going to take a break and then we're going to do the Southwest.

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All right, the Southwest includes the Dallas Mavericks that made the NBA Finals last year and have an over-under of 50.5 wins. They are plus 130 for the division, 5-1 for the conference, 11-1 for the title, plus 650 one seed. Last year, they were 50-32. They finished 24-9 in the last 33 games and then 12-5 in the first three rounds. They had a 28-9 stretch last year.

at some point before they hit the finals. And I feel like that's the Dallas team we're getting even before we talk about all the ads and the drops. They lost Eric Jones. They lost Hardaway Jr. They lost Josh Green. They added Clay. They added Marshall. They added Grimes. They added Dinwiddie. I don't understand why this team wouldn't be like at least a 52-30 team. And that's before we get into the Luka MVP stuff. Russillo, is Dallas better, worse, or the same this season?

They're better because I really like what they did. I love Najee Marshall. We all know that. I even like the Grimes pickup, a full season with Gafford and Washington, but then having a lively combination there. And then, you know, Jaden Hardy, who I thought was just like really scary, except amazing athletically coming out in the draft. Like you've just seen a few moments with him, even if he's just green light, as soon as he laces them up. I think they're better, but I still went under.

Wow. By a hair. That's interesting. Shocked. Okay. Well, it's 50 and a half and they won 50 last year. So you're saying they win 50 again this year, 49? Yeah. I mean, it's just more about the West. I mean, you could even break through some of the numbers where, you know, it's funny because there's a lot of stuff

Where it was like, oh, you have to ignore the year-long numbers because they're a different team now and the defensive numbers are better and all this stuff. And like some of it improves, like there's a defensive jump in there. Offensively, they're basically the same. Three-point stuff, they're basically the same. But they were 12th in net rating post-All-Star break and they made it to the NBA Finals. What about the Super Bowl hangover, though?

I don't see it with them. I got screwed up. Wrong sport. There's a little Kyrie baked into that too, maybe. Okay. Okay. Like Kyrie. We did get the very best. Said and did all the right things last year. He's like Ripken right now. It's a great point. It's a great point. Wow. See, I didn't put factor into my analysis. The Kyrie variant. What's 48 or 49? Like, that's what I'm thinking. I don't think they're going to be bad. It's the same Luca premise, but the number was so low last year.

Not mature, Kyrie? This is just who he is now? Maybe it is who he is. I mean, that's great. That'd be awesome. But he also, the funny thing is he completely skates.

through having awful playoff performances now because really bad in the finals yeah yeah it's a good point and i think he wanted it so bad because it was boston like you know he's burning the sage and he's talking about all this stuff and none of it matters and what his time there's a game three he's a construct and it's like yeah but you really want to stick it to boston like it fucked you up a bit out there game three yeah which i watched over the summer when luca gets he fouls out with what four minutes left and there's that moment where it seems like

This would be amazing if Kyrie ends up saving the day here and making it a 2-1 series. And it was all set up on a platform, and then he didn't come through. Yeah, and there was a sampling of that in the nets where he decided, oh, I'm going to try to take these. But it's over. And we said this after the finals. Boston fans should cheer him now.

It's over. It's like when we cheered Rivera? Yeah, just like... 2005 opening day? Yeah, that was awesome. That was the fucking best. He smiled, too. Remember when Rivera just started laughing? But that's Rivera. It was so hard to not like Rivera. I mean, I hated him, but yeah. No, but he was one of those guys where you're like, yeah, this guy's cool. I think I motherfucked him for like eight straight years. But yeah, no, he was awesome. House, Luca is 33-9-9 the last two seasons.

He is 30.9 points a game in 50 playoff games, second behind just MJ. He's 28.7 points a game for his career, which is only Jordan and Wilder higher. He might have had the best six season statistical start to a career since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Has no MVP, Souths. I think he wins the MVP this year, which is one of the reasons I'm going over. I think in the MVP odds, not allowed to bet on it.

But I think he's the logical MVP choice this year. Because Embiid's out. Jokic, nobody. I don't know what he would have to do to win another MVP. I just don't think anyone's voting for him again. And unless Edwards steps up or SGA averages 32 a game. I think SGA is probably on the one line, like a one seed with Luka. Yeah. If you had to do like an MVP bracket, who would the one seeds be? It's probably Ant, SGA, and Luka. If OKC goes 64 and 18 and SGA averages 30. A lot of people voted for him last year. Yeah. Yeah.

But I would... You did great in the voting. Right. I would pick Luka because I just would find it hard to believe he's not going to win an MVP because he's too good. I feel the exact same way. I am super over on this Dallas team. The only thing that can derail it is injuries and you have to say it with a little more oomph in this situation because Kyrie and Luka have both missed chunks of time over the years. But...

My notes say Luka MVP year. They went 24-9 over the last 33 games. It's year seven, which is always a good time. Luka plus 330 on FanDuel. Shea is plus 410. Jokic 480. Giannis 8-1. Edwards 9-1. Brunson is 12-1. And...

I don't think anyone else says it. I have them basically taking the place of Denver. Denver, 57 wins last year. I have Dallas jumping all the way up there and Denver going back down. They're basically trading spots. This sounds like a lock for you, House. It's going to be close. I have it in brackets right now. But yeah, I really like what they did. I think they got better. I think the guys that they brought in are better than the three that they said goodbye, farewell to. I have another Dallas question for you, House. Go ahead.

On the scale of stars reinventing themselves as role players on new teams with 2001 Mitch Richmond being the lowest and 2013 Ray Allen being the highest, where is Klay Thompson going to be? Oh, wow. Reinventing. Closer to Richmond or closer to 2013 Ray Allen? Sorry about that. I...

I like it closer to Ray Allen. I think they're just going to ask so little of him. I don't think that they need a ton and it's going to be splashy when he comes in and hits, you know, five threes and a quarter. Everybody's like, oh my God, they have Clay. Look at what Clay did. I don't think that they're going to put the pressure on him

to do anything. He was too much pressure. He couldn't do what golden state needed him to do last year. I think he'll be fine for what he's going to ask of him. He still averaged 18 a game, but then when you get through the summer and you read some of the stories and some of the quotes and even some of the stuff Draymond and Steve Kerr and Curry said, it really seemed like he was a mess last year emotionally.

It does seem like that. I think he had a lot of trouble with the last two years. And especially when he didn't get the contract, he just seemed like a mess. And even people who loved him and played with him forever were like, he needed a fresh start.

Now, I don't know what point of his career is that. I didn't think he could play defense anymore, Rosillo. I agree. I didn't think he could guard anybody. No, I don't think he can guard anybody either, but me either. I mean, if you threw, if you asked somebody to be like, hey, what do you think Clay shot the last couple years from three? And people would be so, he was like 41-39. Yeah. On high, like almost 10 attempts per game. I would agree on the defensive side. I would agree on the same, like animosity in the contract stuff. Like,

There was a number out there and then he didn't take it. And then you're like, damn, I kind of wish I had taken that. And then it looked like Golden State was totally fine. We're trying to reinvent stuff around Steph, whatever version of this is that we'll get to. But I like it for him. I like it for him because I just think off of two...

creative guys that have so much attention, like, Clay's job is going to be, like, really easy again. Do not leave him alone. Totally agree with this. And he averaged 18 a game last year, which I had forgotten. And by the way, like, the whole bench thing, remember, like, when we got his, like, I love Clay, okay? I'm a huge Clay fan. I will always be. And so, even all the bumpiness and him being, he was honest. He was honest.

He felt real. He was fucking oddly funny, like in a goofy kind of fun way. And if you want to knock him, like we've got access to so many of these guys for so many years that there's always going to be something like, oh, I think I disagree with that. But like, I loved his personality and his approach throughout all of it because it felt so genuine in comparison with every other guy. So I, I'm just going to have a hard time like,

being upset with anything about like, I hope this works out for him. And I think it's going to be really, really easy. Like PJ and Jones had those incredible like moments shooting from three. Yeah. But it was, there was a real like variation there with both of those guys. My fear might not manifest itself until the playoffs is you're just putting out Luca Kyrie and clay altogether. I'm not going to be able to guard anybody. Yeah.

I can't guard anybody with those three. Just Najee comes in and saves the day. I can't wait for Dallas to experience Najee Marshall. Did people know? He took their under. But like a game. Okay, fine. Najee Marshall's going to be sick. There were very few totals where I went, that's stupid. What's your crunch time for this team? When round two, down 2-1. Well, Lively's still listed as a backup, I guess. Is Clay crunch time for you or is he a bench guy?

Because I don't think he can be a crunch time guy for this team if you're also going to play Luka and Kyrie. No, it's... You're just hunting everybody. Because Derek Jones, imagine against OKC. Yeah. That's the thing. Like all their swings could play defense last year and play unless something changed. All right. So I'm over. Russillo is under. Ladder work. 50 and a half in house is over.

All right. The Memphis Grizzlies, a team that I've changed my opinion on their over-under multiple times, mainly because it keeps going up house. It's at 47 and a half now. Oh, fantastic. Plus 270 for the division. That sounds like an under. 14 to one, one seed. Playoffs minus 245. Last year, they were 27 and 55. Everybody was hurt. They added Zach Eaddy. Marcus Smart's coming back. We'll see what...

what stage of his career he's in. Jaron Jackson's already hurt. He didn't decide to do it during the season this year. He said, fuck it. And it happened before the season. Jaws back. You take a special joy in Memphis injuries. And I don't know if it's because of Erno or what. Is it? That's a little bit of it. No, but they've had, I mean, they've had bad luck. Like Brandon Clark tearing his Achilles. That's bad luck. But Jaron Jackson, I do have suspicions of,

his skinny body banging bodies for eight months a year. Like it's just, it's a lot to ask, but now they have Zach Eadie. We'll talk about Eadie Island later. I am a under, I was way more excited about this when it was like 44 and a half, 47 and a half with all the variables, with all the injury stuff, with that fact that they're counting on Eadie, who I really like. I don't know what version of Marcus Smart we're getting anymore. I don't know if Jaws heads on straight.

How's this an under for me? It is an easy under for me because they can win 47 games and I still win the bet. And that's 20 game improvement, which seems like the right amount of improvement for the chemistry experiment that they're about to undertake. And it has been a chemistry experiment, you know, for three seasons going on now because Ja can't be on the court and Triple J can't be on the court. And... Experiment is a very generous noun. Yeah.

Well, I mean, some would say a controversy laden three years. You just want a rotation. Can you have eight guys that are going to play? And they say, oh, this is our rotation. And then next year, oh, it's basically the same eight guys. Maybe we saw somebody in. They just don't have that. Well, they also have, they were relying on these young dudes last year who I really liked, like Gigi Jackson, Vince Williams.

And I wonder if there's a little bit of a 2019 Celtics thing. Gigi's hurt. Gigi's hurt. How long is he out for? He's out like two months. Oh. Two more months. So he had foot surgery a month ago. Oh, I thought he was going to be back in time. Three months. Jesus. Triple J's out. Gigi's out. I don't want to edit that. You know what? Even the greats miss everyone so well. Hey, you lost track of him. I heard Grizzly. It's okay. Yeah, I lost track of the 11th man on the Grizzlies. Yeah.

But yeah, it's just a lot of variables for me. Where do you stand, Russo? Over. Great. Look, it's my favorite stat. It is my favorite stat of any of the preparation over the last week. 33 players played in a game for the Grizzlies last year. 33. Like I was looking through minute dispersal, trying to look at all the injury stuff. Like, okay, how many games the guys play? Who was your favorite guy that played? Maybe Vince Williams.

I meant just favorite. I can't believe he played a minute for that team guy. I thought Jeff Malone getting a few minutes was surprising. Jeff Malone from the 80s? Yeah. He was working at Home Depot and they were like, do you want to get some run in? And he was like, oh, pick up. I love this. And they were like, no, it's actually a game. So I have no, the Home Depot thing's not true.

Look, they went 51 and 31. They went 56 and 26 the previous two seasons. I saw the recent jaw ad campaign where I was like, oh, so, okay, this is what we're doing.

And in reality, I started thinking about it a little bit more. I think for the Grizzlies to be the best version of themselves and for Ja to be the best version of himself is he needs to be without blame. He needs to be delusional. He needs to think everybody else is wrong and just attack, attack, attack. And I don't want him thinking about anything. I want him just going to the rim with this ferocity that made us all fall in love with him in the beginning. I think he's

paid his dues as far as the punishment part of it. I don't want him reflective. I don't want him to see him mature. I want him irrationally. This sounds like the last four episodes of the Menendez Brothers show.

Uh, cause he's not going to do, he's not going to do any of the stuff that public wants him to do. And that might be better suited for him to just get back into the court and attack. And so I don't think they're going to have even like, there's no way like Spain played 42 games. Clark played six triple J actually played 66 marks and only smartly played 20 games. Now everybody's favorite player is Zach Eady, which I think is maybe a little bit too much momentum on that one. Um,

The number's higher because of what they've been together. So I'm actually going to go the other way with this and go over. I love it. It's fine. I don't feel super strongly about it either way. There were more things that made me nervous about going over than under. I could see them going 52 and 30. They'd be fine. It doesn't seem likely to me without Triple J, but you know. They also could be a mess. Yeah. This was one of three teams where I was like, all right, I'm doing the, if my life depended on it.

What would I do? And I was like, I just going over on a team that has this many variables. I like the over a lot more last night. No, I, somebody had to take it. What was happening last night? Somebody had taken it. I don't know. I watched that ad. I think I was the first time I saw the jaw ad and I went, Hey, instead of being upset and you're like, this guy's not taking any account. I was like, good. Well, let's do the job around outcome pie chart house. And the, the outcomes can be first or second team on BA all-star and

Good starter, injury prone, or it's a mess again? Where would you put the percentages? Who would you do first or second team all NBA? Like 12, 15%? Yeah, not very big. That's a pretty small slice. What about devastating hip dislocation? No, my God. Don't do that. Don't do that. I would say first team, it would have to be really special. God, they were so good. They were so good there for a little stretch. It's not like...

I would say probably 10 to 12. All-star to me seems in like the 25 to 30%. That's the biggest slice of pie to me. Yeah, you're right. Good starter, injury prone is probably second biggest pie. I just don't want to root for that. You're right. We're doing Alcoa. Lampi. And then he's a mess off the court. No. And this season goes badly is probably 10%, 12%. This is where I don't know how popular this is, but like when we say mess off the court in the historic moments of people being a mess off the court, like...

Distraction that causes him to miss games. Yeah, sure. But like, if you want to go through all the guys. Go through like the 70s and 80s? Well, no, you don't even have to do that. You can do recent stuff. Like, Jaws not in the same tier of some of these guys that have fucked up.

My guess is All-Star. But he also, those guys also were not supposed to be the face of the league because we, you know, the league was hoping two years ago that Ja would be the face. The way that we're doing. What happened with Edwards was what they wanted to happen with Ja two years ago. Right. That's all Nike signature shoe. Most exciting social media All-Star American player. Edwards kind of took it. So,

There's a, there's a scenario where he's awesome this year, partly because Edwards took the spot that was sitting there for him. I like this. Um, it's a Zach Eady investors relations call. We've taken a position on Zach Eady, the ninth pick in the draft. Um,

I just, I think he's going to be pretty good for them. I'm excited to watch him because he's a weird NBA player in a league where everybody is looking increasingly the same. I like that he has to be out at the end of games because he can get fouled and will make the last two free throws. I think he's gonna be really hard to guard. There's gonna be certain matchups where they're like, Jesus Christ, Zach Eady has 18 points in the first half. There's gonna be other games where it's like, wow, they can't hide him on defense. I'm gonna, I recommend a

Small purchase of Edie stock here. Okay. You in-house? For Verno, very small buy. I'll add some Edie to the portfolio, but it's spec money. Rossello? Look, here's what I would ask. Are you actually going to throw it to him in the post? You're going to do that. Because if we go, who led the league in post-ups last year? It was Jokic with eight. All right?

Embiid was second at less than five. So that's not what anybody does. Al Jefferson led the league in post-up touches, like real post-ups. That was a great era. I love Al Jefferson. Like with 20. And it was only like 10 years ago. If you could redo Al Jefferson or Dee Brown's career and you could only redo one, which one would you redo? Big Al, man. I just feel like he had bad luck for three straight years with dumb injuries. I know. I loved him. I loved him because he just, you know. I thought he could have been a 25-point-a-game guy.

He was unguardable on the block. He had great feet, great hands. I didn't even know that his body... Bad luck. So if you're telling me, the guy that lit it up, sometimes you're like, okay, well, he's 7'4". I just didn't think a team would actually want to run an offense that way because nobody does it anymore. Yeah. So I guess if you're going to take him in the top 10, then it means you're going to do something that nobody does anymore. I think the number five guy in post-ups was Shingun at 3.8%.

a game. So is Edie getting 10? And then Shinga got hurt and then Houston played better without him. Right. Wait, what's going on here? But that's perfect because then you think of like the best version of Ja. Space it out. Let him attack. No help. So where's Zach Edie when that's happening? Two threes his entire college career. Yeah. So I think the Edie like stuff that we're seeing is kind of awesome. Like good for him, you know, but specific to

I guess if you invest in this kind of picket, you're going to do that. But does that get in Jaws way a little bit? And then, of course, I'll, you know. So it sounds like you don't want to buy in on the…

House and out. We'll cover you. Small bit. Small taste. I'm a little higher on him, but the job thing. What is it then? What is it? Because there's going to be games. Okay. Like they play New Orleans. And New Orleans is like, we still don't have a center. We're playing Herb Jones and this messy guy. And we may play Zion at center and Memphis. But that's great. We're just going to post up Zach Eadie and he's going to score on all these fucking dudes. I think there's games like that. I think he's a situational asset.

Right. I wouldn't want against the Lakers. Probably not playing, you know, against the Warriors. If they have Draymond, it's like, yeah, let's see what this looks like. Let's post up Draymond a couple of times and see how it goes. It might be like a really successful novelty that I don't know. It's like a Percy Harvin. It's like those receivers that they're like, yeah, he's going to, we're going to run options with them and weird reverses and swing passes. All right. New Orleans. Speaking of their over under is 45 and a half.

And they added DeJounte Murray and Daniel Tice, Brazil's favorite player. They lost Jonas Valanciunas. They still have Brandon Ingram, who they made the mistake of saying that they were probably trading during the summer and then nobody made an offer. They don't have a center. They should count Daniel Tice. Zion's in good shape. Yeah. He looks good. It's awesome. Looks like older and just felt like it was a fast forward to four years from now. Yeah.

I'm an under on this at 45 and a half. I don't feel great about it. I think this season's really hard, but, uh, the West is too good. And I have too many questions about what this team is going to do defensively. How much is I'm going to play? I, the Murray McCollum Ingram Zion as four year, five guys just seems super weird to me from a ball kind of who's going to be happy in that scenario standpoint. Those seem to be like four guys that need the ball. Um,

It just feels like this team isn't the team they're going to be in February. I feel like this would be my pick for something weird. Some trade is going to happen with this team. What do you have, Vals? Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I don't like a team starting off the season with a guy that they didn't intend to have on the roster. Feels slightly awkward. Feels like they're a Wizards team, basically. You've been in that scenario many times. Sure. Andre Blatch is back.

And I was super blown away by Willie Green last year. I thought down the stretch that New Orleans really had an opportunity to make some noise, get into the playoffs. I really thought because they have a really like dynamic roster in terms of what they can do defensively. Yeah. If everybody's healthy, the guy that doesn't fit that is Ingram, which made him so super expendable, but he's on the roster. So it's an under for me. I can't, you know, I just can't.

can't invest in the idea that there's upside. You know, they won 49 games and their total is 45 and a half. It's crazy. And the under is minus 132. So everybody's buying the under on this team and I'm going to go right along with them. Rosillo, Larry Nance and Dyson Daniels were in that trade for Murray. And Nance was somebody that was finishing games for them and gave them a little, you know, I don't want to say small ball, but a smaller ball. And I just thought he was really valuable for them. And

I don't like the mix of guys enough to go over, say they're going to be 46 or higher, but you're a Zion guy. You made it no secret. Yeah. Where are you over under? Under what happened to the Pelicans? I love.

You know, remember a couple of years ago, I'd be like, you know, you look one through 13. Yeah, I'll take their one through 13. It's kind of true against anybody. There was for a while. Now Dyson Daniels is gone. Maybe they can pick up Usman Jang. I'll be excited about it again. But Murray hasn't defended like since San Antonio. He's got this defensive rep and I don't see it anymore.

I like CJ. Like I kind of go, man, Murray, CJ, Ingram, Zion, like that should be good enough for a high forties win total. Like it should be 49 or 48. Or it's a fantasy team. Whatever. Um, look, Zion's 24 and he played 70 games last year. And at the worst possible time, he goes out in the play playing game. You're like, here we go again. And you know, he'd played 29 total games the last two years. So it's a bit of a Zion thing. And as much as I like

Herb and I like Trey Murphy and I think Jordan Hawkins still has a chance because I thought his shot making in that draft was like the most NBA ready shot making and you can get stuck behind all these other dudes like a Najee Marshall but

I think the Nance point that you made, Bill, is maybe a precursor to what we have now with the main rotation. Because when you look at that matchup against the Thunder, you're thinking, okay, Valanciunas is massive, and now Chet's going to have to deal with him. And then Valanciunas is getting all these rebounds, right? But yet Willie Green wanted to close with Larry Nance because he wanted to be more adaptable to all the ball handling you saw with the Thunder. So I think that might be part of the reason we have this version now because Willie Green even said, like, he's not the five. We're not talking about fives. We're talking about position lists.

I do think there's some credence to that. But it's the end of the day. End of the day, somebody's going to have to guard the other centers and it's going to be Herb Jones a lot of time. I think there's certain nights where you go. I don't like that at all. Dude, like we love Herb Jones. Find three guys not in the world. I want Herb Jones like guarding Luka. I want him guarding everybody. SGA. Also, they don't really have other defenders like him.

You know, because they got rid of Daniels. Zion's not a, he's better than the disaster he was at the beginning of his career. But even like you bring in Trey Murphy and Hawkins off the bench, those guys aren't locking anyone down either. Trey's pretty active and he's long as hell. I don't want him guarding Luka. No, well, I mean, you know. I don't want him guarding Tatum. I'm going to lose those anyway, especially with a Luka one. This one, it already feels weirder than it needs to be before the season starts. So that's an under for me, dog. And where did their picks go?

They have all their firsts. They have a Milwaukee swap in 26. They have either a Bucks or New Orleans first in 27. And that's it. Like that Lakers trade is basically paid out because they put that pick in the Murray trade. I said it earlier. I'll say it again. I think trading Trey Murphy might be the ultimate move for this team.

Because I think he would bring back the most and it would solve some of the issues they have, but I don't know what the move is. Anyway, I'm going under. So we're all under on this. Jeez, tough times. I guess we'll find out how good DeJounte Murray is because there's been a lot of excuses the last three years. And his stats are good. And that's about it. Let's take one more break and then we'll do the last two teams, which are probably the most fun two teams to talk about. This episode is brought to you by JP Morgan Wealth Management.

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They're plus 130 to be in the play-in. They're minus 115 to be in the playoffs. They added Reed Shepard. This is the most fun depth chart to look at of any of the 30 teams. Shengun, Jabari, Dylan Brooks, Jalen Green, Van Vliet as the starters. Shepard, Thompson, Eason, Whitmore, Rosillo's guy Landell.

Steven Adams. Jay Sean Tate, who I sneaked in like for a while. Tate, Adam 12th. Yeah. I didn't even write him down. Jacque Landale, the Spurs didn't know how to use him. Is there a bigger high ceiling, low basement team than this? You could talk me into 35 wins. You could tell me they're going to win 51. Well, I don't know why they're going to win less. Why are they going to win less? I don't know. I mean, and let's just the math of all the wins that are available. Well, there's one there. Actually, you know, I love this theory, the too many guys theory.

I do have too many guys. They have too many guys. All those guys I listed are like, I'm better than that guy. I should be playing 30 minutes a game. They have a lot of, I should be playing 30 minute a game guy would be my fear. This feels like a veteran gene. And look, Stone's done an awesome job with the roster. He has. Okay. But there's also people that would tell you like, you can't do it this way because now you have 15 guys all thinking they're supposed to be in the hall of fame. Yeah. But I mean, whatever. I'd rather have that problem. Cam Whitmore is their ninth guy.

And I guarantee in practice, he's like, I'm killing everybody in this practice. Right. Or he's looking at Reed Shepard the first day of practice being like, I'm going to lose minutes to this guy. And then Reed Shepard makes a 20 footer in his face. Yeah. Well, that's another thing. Like Reed Shepard might in some cases be more effective than Van Vliet. Like they have these situations where on the one hand you could say, well, their bench is going to be awesome. And the other hand, they're going to be in these weird situations where somebody might be playing over somebody who's finishing games. We already talked about the Shingun part where they have not.

Where they were better without him? Better without him. Jabari Smith looked great as a stretch five, basically. Yeah. If there's any coach that I trust to figure it out, it's either. I was really scared what you were going to say there when you paused. You were like, if there's any coach I trust. I was like, no house. No. To figure it out. Good. To figure it out. Good play. Good spot. Yeah. We've moved beyond. Yeah. Um,

No, I think that Houston is super duper exciting, super loaded. To me, the biggest challenge is figuring out Jalen Green. They got to figure out what they're going to do with that dude. Not sure that he's... I feel this is the best I've felt about him. Oh, well, that's great. Okay, well, that helps me. It's a super over for me. I love this Houston team. I think they're going to be battling for 7-8. I don't even, you know, I think they're going to have a high enough record that they might host the 7-8 play-in.

I'm intrigued by the Jalen Green question too, Rosillo, because what did he was like 27, 28 a game there for a month. It was when Shingun went out. I think it was the OKC game like last March. Yeah, there were real moments where it was like, holy shit, this guy's figured it out. But there's a lot of guys in this team who need the ball. Yeah, it used to be a bunch of guys playing basketball without each other.

It was like four famous people on a podcast that have all had a really good run and they're like, let's start a podcast this week. And you're just like, what the fuck are you guys doing? That's how the Rockets used to look. And I used to enjoy how much I hated it. I'm serious. I'm like, these guys are

are some, and then, well, we used to have that joke about whoever got the ball over half court got to shoot. Exactly. Exactly. But I didn't feel like they were like that down the stretch last year. No, but I think the Van Vliet, Dylan Brooks numbers that even though when they came out, you're like, Oh my God, like, what are you paying those guys? People are making China jokes for Dylan Brooks after that Lakers series when he was in Memphis. They're like, or I'm going to get like 60, 80 million bucks. Yeah. So what happened was I think a couple of adults in the room and they,

Jalen, I'd see, if I'm a Rockets fan, I love how talented Shingun is, but I can't unsee what that stretch was like. It's a higher ceiling with how we know basketball is played where you have to have a guy like Jalen Green. And Shingun, it's a little more mixed on can you win four straight rounds with a guy you're running an offense through. And I'm starting to worry about Jabari, like not.

showing enough of the high-end stuff where ball handling was a question for him coming out of Auburn. And, you know, he just doesn't really get... There's a lot of, like, during the bad Jalen stuff, I'd be like, can you guys find him once in the corner? And it didn't seem like they wanted to. So I can't wait for the Reed-Shepard dynamic of all of this. Does Shepard... Because it was a team that did not shoot the ball well last year. They were 23rd from three house. They actually were better offensively

offensively than maybe you'd think 20th. But the thing is, this is a young team that played really good defense. So can you live with Van Vliet and Shepard at the same time? I don't know. It's endless. It's worth it. Is this your number one league pass team house? They're super high up there. Definitely. Because if Shepard is like really good, if Shepard's like Mark Price in the early 90s, this might be the number one league pass team for me. Super fun to watch. If he's just coming off the bench and just lighting dudes up,

I can't wait. I can't wait either. This is the, this is the, I can't wait team, but we all have to go over on this thing. I mean, 42 and a half. Yeah. Come on. The fact that they have the same over under as the Lakers is hilarious. It's honestly hilarious. They have so much more talent than the Lakers. I just love Bill. Like, right. No, I know. I know. West teams. You'd want to be next five years.

Will we all agree OKC's first? Yeah. Is San Antonio second? Because you get Wemby. I know. I only can see Wemby. I'll give you six teams. OKC, San Antonio, Minnesota, Houston, Denver, Dallas. I have Minnesota second because that's how much I believe in Edwards. I have Minnesota second for the same reason. Over Wemby? Yeah. I have San Antonio second. The team is already there. That kid's going to get a bunch of runs to the NBA finals. Because they have so many picks to play with too with them.

Yeah, and Minnesota is kind of... Minnesota is like, this is the team. Yeah. But I think Houston is probably four over Denver and Dallas just because... Way over Denver. Way over Dallas? Okay, but here's where I have Dallas. But that's where you have Jokic and Luka. I would have Dallas.

higher than Houston. Because you know you're getting that. You're already getting somebody who's going to go down. Yeah, that's a better. You're right. The whole point of Houston is you're hoping one of these guys is it. With Luka, with this start. You have to put Denver down. As you mentioned, the first five years of Luka's start, once you put that in perspective of who the other seven guys are. No, you've got to unbuckle those. Why would you have Denver over Houston? Denver is going nowhere. Denver is dead man walking. Can people stop pretending Jokic is going to quit?

quit in two years. I like it. For horses. I hate this. No, I'm doing it because I want him to get mad at it and be like, no, I'm actually going to play until I'm 40 in America. You know, like a guy has a fucking interest, God forbid. It's like in the Sopranos when Tony got the horse. That's Jokic. He just likes going to the barn. Yeah, but it's like when Chris wanted to write screenplays and Tony was like,

And then he invests in Cleaver. Right. So it's like, what the fuck, man? Stay consistent. I feel like Cleaver was a good idea. House and I watched some Sopranos last night. Loved it. Yeah. Very enjoyable. Guess what always delivers? The Sopranos. It's always good. Although if you binge it too hard, you can start being like, am I in a bad mood? Right. It's like those hospital shows relate that too. The Doc is great. So we binge Grey's Anatomy. The Doc was really good. Yeah. It was really well done. Well executed. Three overs for Houston. San Antonio Spurs.

35 and a half. This is the most. Yeah, everybody was going to take the over no matter what. So they just said, screw it. We're putting this number as high as we can. They're just daring you. It was like last week in the Eagles game, the Eagles ended up, they were favored by nine and a half over the Browns because people like Fando were like, you don't want to take Deshaun Watson. We're just going to keep raising the line. Yeah, I bet if we put it at nine, you still don't want to take Deshaun Watson. And people are like, I don't want to take Deshaun Watson. You're right.

This line, they're like, you love Wemby. They have on the FanDuel thing, they have a Wemby special. So you just have all these, will Wemby have a quadruple double? Will Wemby have a 30, 20, and 10? So anyway, it's 35 and a half. It's way too fucking high. I don't see any scenario where they hit this. It's preposterous. It's preposterous. It's preposterous. And I don't think they want to hit it. He can't play all 82 games. And the only way for them to win 36 games is for him to play 82 games.

Their starters are going to be Wemby, Sohan, Harris, and Barnes. Yeah. Adults in the room. Devin Vassell and CP3. And then Castle coming off the bench with Kelton Johnson and Zach Collins and Trey Jones. So it's at least... It at least looks like an NBA 9-man rotation finally. So they check that box. Sohan's not playing point guard this year? He's not going to play point guard and run actions. Rossella, what's the Wemby ceiling for you this year? Because...

I was baby Jesus. I was looking at all these props.

So on FanDuel, 24 points per game is minus 390. Five plus assists a game is minus 150. 12 rebounds a game is minus 230. And for him to be the block's leader is minus 480. So those are all like they're saying. All on the board. Because I think you have to break this team into pre and post all-star. 100%. Which is why I landed at. That makes perfect sense. Could Wemby average 24, 12, and 5 and win the block's title?

And from what we saw the last two months, I think the answer is yes. It was 24-12-5. In 22 games after the All-Star break, that's exactly what it was. 23.5 points, 12 boards, 5 assists. The assist stuff is nuts. I mean, he took seven threes a game in the second half, hit 33%. That's going to get better. Yeah, the turnover number that I mentioned earlier was Scoop. But, I mean, it's four and a half blocks after that. And the Spurs went 11-16. And I think eventually, years from now, maybe it's already now, but like...

I know the defensive player of the year voting that I was arguing for that I knew I was going to lose. You were like, what revolutionary war guy were you like where you're going to be on the right side of history? Lafayette. Yeah. That might be the best answer I've ever come up with. That was pretty good. You were like Lafayette. Yeah. You tried to tell everyone. Yeah. Like, guys, just saying. So, look, I think there were kind of two different teams and like,

Look, with Chris Paul just there to throw an entry pass to Wemba and Yama. Like, thank God. Can you imagine in practice when Chris Paul threw him an entry pass and Wemba was like, what the hell was that? I put my hand out and he just sent a bounce pass and it went to where my hand was. Did I tell you I ran into Chris Paul in the Vegas, in the Fountain Blue, in Vegas for Summer League? Yeah. So it was after I'd had him for the live show. Yeah. I was coming down to the lobby and then he comes up and it was like...

just two dudes glowing in it. We talked about officiating for like 20 minutes. Officiating then Wemby? Yeah, we didn't even really get to Wemby. Just officiating? Yeah, it just, it just, it was one of those things that like, thank God I'd had the live show to kind of like tie it all up together. But he was pumped. He was so pumped. Like,

You know, I don't know if a player would ever be like, yeah, they were my only option. Right. You know, but he just was so pumped about like, I'm like at the end of my career, I'm going to play with this guy. And I think, you know, whatever you think about, like,

Paul, I bet you Wim Binyam is just like fired up, man. Like this Sohan experiment that was ridiculous. I don't think Keldon Johnson is this bad. I think Vassell's pretty good. We'll see what they have with Castle. There's a few other young guys. There's contracts here that aren't that great, but 36 wins. I like Castle. Sadly, I have to do this. Just let House and I talk about this. You don't have to participate. House, are we sure Chris Paul has anything left?

So last year, so sit it out and have a drink last year, 58 games, 26.4 minutes, 9.2 points, 6.8 assists. He's going to be, he's 39. He turns 40 in may. Here's the list of 39 year olds guards who have averaged four assists a game. John Stockton, nobody else. In fact,

Only 11 players total have been 39-year-old guards in the NBA. Like, he's not only old, there's really no historical precedent for this. You're talking about end of the year, end of the career, Derek Fisher on OKC, Darrell Armstrong, Jason Terry, Vince Carter on Memphis.

How many games does he have to play? Let's look at his assists over under. Right. So I was trying to think like, what's the best case, worst case scenario for Chris Paul? Because I thought he looked closer to maybe being on the end of the line last year. Sure. So what's the comeback year from that? Is it 65 games?

And he averages eight assists a game. He was 8.8 two years ago. I think that's perfect. I think that's all that San Antonio is asking for. And I think he's, he can do that. I don't think that they're going to be asking, putting him in the position. Golden State needed him to be good. Golden State needed, needed him. Well, and they also, because of Curry and just the weird team they had, they actually needed him to like play defense. Yeah. Like, so now Wemby's protecting him. Yeah.

I like it. I think it's a best case scenario. There's really no statistical evidence other than John Stockton that any 39-year-old point guard can play 30 minutes a game. I don't know that they're going to ask him to do that. I can't imagine Popovich would ask him to do that. I just think a nice entry pass a couple times a night is going to be an awesome feeling. I think it's fair. I'm going to read you Best Big Man of the Last 40 Years, year two.

Tim Duncan won the title. Bob Pettit. No, I'm not going back that far. Kareem, I guess 50 plus years. Kareem won the title. Hakeem lost in the finals in year two. Cowens, 56 wins. Nice. David Robinson, 55. Shaq, 50. I'm familiar. Patrick Ewing, our only 24 wins for Patrick Ewing in year two.

So if you're making the case for the over, there's a, hey, look at all the greatest big men ever. Those guys were actually fucking awesome in year two, but they were all their different situations. Yeah, those teams were. Yeah, Kareem was four years in college. Yeah, Ralph Sampson year two. They were in the playoffs at least. But the picks are what's really fascinating with this team. They have Atlanta's unprotected first this year.

They have a swap with them in 26. That's what's crazy too. The Murray, like Bill come and do now for Atlanta. Yeah. Oh, it's, it's coming. A swap 26. And then they get the Atlanta's 27. They have a Boston swap. They have a Dallas swap. They have two Minnesota swaps and they get a Minnesota pick. Sorry. One Minnesota, one swap. They have a Sacramento swap. So, and they have all their firsts. So when they decide, yo, this guy would look great with one B, who are we saying last night would have been unbelievable with one B.

I know this is going to sound funny. It was Ben Simmons. Great. We didn't say it. You didn't see Ben Simmons last night, apparently.

We were saying, theoretically, we were saying, theoretically, the guy we were watching in some random terrible exhibition game, the stuff Ben Simmons was doing. The Brooklyn Nets against the Washington Wizards. House made the point. Ben Simmons. If you took this person and he could reliably do this over and over again, this is a very good teammate for Victor Weminyama. He's like a second round top 45 protected swap.

I can't wait for the next Ben. Brooklyn's like, I can't believe this. They're calling about Ben. We'll do it. We'll wait for Brooklyn. I do think it would work. I still think it. So we're all going under. Under, what was it? 35 and a half. Yes. That's fine. Okay. That's it. Should I roll through these one more time just so we have them? Okay. Because I wrote everything down. Oklahoma City, over, over, over. 57 and a half. Denver, 50 and a half.

I went over. Russillo and House went under. Minnesota, 51 and a half. We all went over. Utah, 27 and a half. I went under. Russillo went over and House went over. I was surprised by that one. Portland, 20 and a half. Me and House went under. Russillo went over. Dallas, 50 and a half. Me and House went over. Russillo went under. So you zagged against us. You did some zagging. Memphis, 47 and a half.

Me and House went under. Rosillo went over. New Orleans, 45 and a half. All three of us went under. Houston, 42 and a half. Heavy, hearty, enthusiastic overs from all three of us. What do the Houston fans do, by the way, when we're super enthusiastic about their team and we all go over and they're like, but you fucking hate us. I mean, I don't think there's any fan base that hated me more than Toronto and then Houston would be number two. You don't...

These guys still hate us. Are you still impersonating Houston? What's going on over there? I don't even think that's an accent from Houston. They're like, Tommy, they all went over. No, they fucking hate us just deep down. What the fuck are you doing right now? That's been a bit. I wanted a southern accent. I want you to do the southern accent. It was a bunch of accents. Fucking Rosillo's all over us all the fucking time. That was a little better. I'll work on it. I'll work on it before we get to part two.

I don't think there's a Houston accent. Well, I know wherever you get it the first time. It's an accent. Yeah. I think there is a Houston accent. Listen, I'm just workshopping shit, guys. You're like the guy in the Boston Marathon movie in Walbrook. It's like, fuck, who casted this guy? Tell him he can't do it. Last one is San Antonio, which is 35 and a half. And we all went under. That's it for part one. Thanks to Kyle Creighton. Thanks to Gahow. Thanks to Steve Cerruti. Has he been watching this?

See you on there. Hi, Saruti. We're coming back for part two, so be ready.

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