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Tonight is the big presidential debate, the most important presidential debate of my lifetime for sure. And we have a Daily Wire backstage happening live. Our pre-show starts 8.30 p.m. Eastern at the Daily Wire app and dailywire.com. Join Matt Walsh, Michael Moles, Andrew Klavan, Jeremy Boring, and me for expert analysis and unfiltered commentary on this debate. See you there. You're going to want to be there. So who is the burden on with regard to this debate? Who needs the debate more?
The answer right now, Joe Biden needs this debate. He needs to win this debate. It is not enough, actually, for Joe Biden to just remain alive. Because if all of the priors going into this debate remain after the debate, questions about his health, questions about his fitness, questions about his policy, if the focus is on Joe Biden after this debate,
Joe Biden is going to lose. He needs a radical change in the direction of this electoral cycle in order for him to win. So just a week ago, there was a lot of talk about how maybe Joe Biden had regained momentum. The polls were tightening up. There were a couple of national polls showing Joe Biden up very, very slightly within the margin of error on Donald Trump nationally. But now we have a bevy of new polls. And what they're showing is that Donald Trump is actually pulling away.
This is a disaster area for Joe Biden. Donald Trump now has the largest lead in the RealClearPolitics national average that he has had in three months. He is up by nearly two points in that RealClearPolitics national average.
Not just that. We have a couple of national polls that are mirroring one another. The New York Times is so freaked out about this because they're one of the polls that they are trying to determine whether they're an outlier poll or not. There are certain polls in every cycle that are a little bit different than all the other polls. And sometimes the outliers are right. But here's the thing. It's not really an outlier when the same couple of days you release your poll, there's another poll from Quinnipiac that mirrors your poll. So Quinnipiac has been a very pro-Biden poll throughout this entire electoral process. According to Quinnipiac, Trump,
is now at 49. If you're looking at registered voters, including leaders, Biden is at just 45. Trump currently has a 10 point advantage with independents. Now that means that Joe Biden is going to lose. If those numbers are correct, Joe Biden is going to lose this election. Quinnipiac has shown Biden tied or leading virtually the entire cycle.
It turns out that about 73% of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll say they're going to watch the debate tonight, which means that Joe Biden needs a strong showing. He particularly needs a strong showing because there is a Times-Siena poll out that shows that Joe Biden is also down four points. Right now, he is down 48-44. That is the biggest lead that Donald Trump has had in the National Times-Siena poll among likely voters in months.
Trump's lead with registered voters is six percentage points. So in other words, a higher turnout election is now better for Donald Trump. These numbers are awful numbers for Joe Biden, truly terrible numbers for Joe Biden. When you look at the swing states, it's even worse for Joe Biden. According to a report from The Washington Post, polling in the swing states shows that more than half of voters in six swing states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 were
say that threats to democracy are extremely important to their vote. But the problem is that more of those voters actually believe that Trump will handle threats to democracy better than Biden. So in other words, the entire Biden message that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, January 6th, elections and nihilism, that message is totally falling flat because it turns out that when people look at Joe Biden and they look at his executive actions, which are in fact tyrannical, when they look at him ranting about how he's going to end around the Supreme Court,
When they look at the fact that he has used executive agencies to do things like, quote unquote, relieve student loan debt or attempt to cram down vaccine mandates on 80 million Americans, they don't think that Joe Biden is standing for democracy. According to The Washington Post, the results offer troubling indicators for Biden, who needs voters who may be unenthusiastic about his candidacy to decide they must reject Trump to preserve America's system of representative government.
Justin Guest, professor of policy and government at George Mason University, says many Americans don't recognize Biden's custodianship of our democracy. That is a bad sign for his campaign. The polls surveyed the views of over 3,500 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in April and May. Of those who were surveyed, about two-thirds of them were classified as deciders. Those would be sort of independent voters who have flipped or who do not plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year. And as it turns out,
Among all key state voters, 44% say that they believe that Donald Trump would do a better job handling threats to democracy than Joe Biden. Only 33% of voters say Biden would do a better job handling threats to democracy than Donald Trump.
If those poll numbers are anything remotely like accurate, Joe Biden is toast unless he has a magnificent performance tonight in the debate, because that is the tip of the spear of Biden's entire argument. It's it may not even just be the tip of the spear. It's the whole spear. There's nothing else. You can't run on the economy. People don't like the economy. You can't run on its foreign policy. His foreign policy is a burning dumpster fire of trash and excrement.
So what exactly is going to run on? He can't run on the border. He can't run on social policy. What exactly is going to run on? His entire campaign was predicated on his speech at Independence Hall, blood red in the background, where he declared himself the man standing in the breach on behalf of democracy. If more Americans in the swing states believe that he is the threat to democracy than Donald Trump, that dude is toast. Not only that, look at the crosstabs in this New York Times poll. They're insane.
Okay, so the crosstabs, when we refer to those, those are the breakdowns by various age, sex, racial group in the United States and how they're going to vote. These numbers are crazy. This podcast is sponsored by Talkspace. You know when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself? Talking to someone who understands can really help. But who is that person? How do you find them? Where do you even start? Talkspace. Talkspace makes it easy to get the support you need.
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So here's the question from The New York Times. Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote? Very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote. The reason this matters is because voter enthusiasm is going to mean an awful lot when it comes to this election. If Trump voters are jazzed to go, which we are, and if Biden voters are not jazzed to go, which they are not, Trump is going to walk over Biden. That's the simple fact of the matter.
Again, the most important statistic that I know of with regard to the 2024 election is going to be voter turnout. If you look at total number of votes by presidential election, what you will see is I've said this many times before. What you will see is that there's an elevation in most presidential elections of perhaps three to five million votes in terms of total numbers of votes cast. So, for example, 2012, there are about 129 million votes cast in 2016.
About 136 million votes cast. So an increase of about 10 million between 2012 and 2016. In 2020, there were 158 million votes cast. That's an increase of 22 million votes. By the way, 2012 was actually down from 2008. And so if you add 22 million new voters to the mix in 2020, do you think that that's going to replicate itself in 2024? In 2020, everybody voted from home. Everybody voted four months in advance of the election.
The ballot harvesting was insane. That is not going to replicate this time. How many of those marginal low propensity voters were Biden voters in 2020? The answer is an awful lot. So if you look at the demographics that Joe Biden needs to draw, the enthusiasm among those demographics is extraordinarily low. So according to the New York Times, only 38% of people aged 18 to 29 say they are almost certain to vote. Another 23% say that they are very likely to vote. So count those in like the we're definitely voting category.
Hey, that means only 61% of people 18 to 29 say they are almost certain or very likely to vote. Compare that to the 76% of people aged 30 to 44 or the 87% of people aged 45 to 64. Those are demographics that Donald Trump is doing much better with. Young people, in other words, they're not all that interested in voting. And it turns out that middle-aged and older people are very interested in voting. Go to race, ethnicity.
So as we'll get to in a moment, Donald Trump is wildly outperforming right now among racial minorities. But even put that aside, the voter enthusiasm numbers with racial minorities for this election cycle, extremely low. So among white voters, 86% say they are almost certain or very likely to vote in the upcoming election. Compare that with just 76% of black voters. That is a low voter turnout. How about Hispanic voters? Hispanic voters, only 62% say they're almost certain or very likely to vote.
In other words, the demographics, middle-aged white people that are most likely to vote are demographics that are also most likely to vote Trump. That is a massive problem for Joe Biden, a serious problem. And then look at the actual numbers here. If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for between Biden and Trump? This includes leaners, people who say, well, I don't really know, but here's what I'm leaning toward.
Hey, this poll shows that if you include leaners, Donald Trump is up 48 to 42 on Joe Biden, a six point lead, a disastrous result for Joe Biden. 10% say they don't know or they refused. You figure those are going to split right down the middle. If anything, they might favor Trump. There might be a bunch of people who don't want to tell the New York Times they're going to vote for Trump. Now look at these numbers. Joe Biden loses to Donald Trump among men 54 to 36. He only wins women 47 to 43.
He's only winning young people, 46 to 40, which is an awful number for him. Totally terrible number for him. Look at the ethnicity. OK, by ethnicity, Trump is winning white voters, 53, 38 in this poll. He's losing black voters, 59 to 30. If Donald Trump wins 30 percent of the black vote, this election isn't just over. It is a clobbering of historic proportions. That'd be the largest percentage of the black vote any Republican candidate has won since Richard Nixon in 1972.
That is a massive number. Understand, in 2020, Donald Trump won 5% of the black vote. So 6x that, and you're looking at Donald Trump's numbers in this poll. Then you get to Hispanics. Donald Trump is running dead even with Joe Biden among Hispanics. 45-44 for Biden. By the way, if you take out the leaners, like the people who are certain to vote a particular way, Donald Trump actually wins a plurality of Hispanics, 31-28. These numbers are a full-scale disaster area for Joe Biden.
which means the burden is on him for sure, for sure. According to the Washington Post, Donald Trump is now leading in five of the seven battleground states most likely to determine the outcome of the election. And it turns out that in two of the other states, he's basically tied. He's within the margin of error. According to the Washington Post, they are tied in Pennsylvania. Biden is up less than a percentage point in Wisconsin. Trump is up three in Michigan.
Now, remember, that's a state that Biden won by three. It's a six point shift in Michigan. In North Carolina, Trump is up four. In Nevada, Trump is up five. In Arizona, he's up five. In Georgia, he's up five. Disaster area polling numbers for Joe Biden heading into this election cycle. Truly disaster. So bad that Nate Silver, no Republican he, is now suggesting that Donald Trump is heavily favored to beat Joe Biden. He said the model is ready. And here is our headline. The presidential election is not a toss up.
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According to Silver, his model is largely the same as the one he built for 538 and used for the 2020 election. It's according to Mediaite, but adjusting for turnout dynamics, factoring in the increased relevance of third party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. this time around and without some COVID specific assumptions. And his conclusion is that, well, either candidate could certainly win. The reality is that Donald Trump right now has about a two thirds chance of winning, according to Nate Silver. That is that's a crazy number.
He points out that in 2012, he said that's a race that looks a lot like this race. He says that he thought that when the model was launched, Obama was actually about a 60% favorite. In this particular case, Trump is a 66% favorite. That doesn't mean for sure he's going to win. Remember that all the models had Hillary Clinton, like a 99% favorite in 2016, and then she lost. With that said, he says if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, he needs to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, not just one of them.
Even though these states are pretty heavily correlated, they aren't perfectly correlated. Winning several different correlated bets is still hard. These states have significant differences. In simulations, Biden wins at least one of the states 54% of the time, but he only wins all three of them, 32% of the simulations. Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district in the blue wall saves the day scenario. That's not quite a sure thing, says Nate Silver, given Biden's mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast.
In the Sunbelt swing states, Biden trails badly, so badly that he's out of the normal range of polling error scenarios. And he either needs a big polling error or something fundamental to change about the race. That's the glass half full view of Biden's perspective in this particular election.
He says that they have a polls plus model over at 538 Nate Silver. The polls plus model incorporates assumptions about incumbency and the economy. He says this is slightly better than the polls only forecast, but it would be easier to get carried away. He says the fundamentals are not that great for Biden. They currently project him to win the popular vote by maybe two to three percentage points. That would make this a toss up race given Biden's problems in the Electoral College.
He says the problem is the economy isn't all that good. Real GDP grew by 2.5% last year, following 1.9% in 2020. It grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024. This is like, okay, but it's below the long-term median growth rate in the United States. So in other words, if you look at the modeling,
What it suggests is that Joe Biden is losing this election. He is behind in this election, which means that the debate tonight, the onus is weirdly enough on the incumbent. As by the way, it should be. It typically should be. If you're the incumbent president, you've been the person in charge of this bleep show for the last four years. It is you who should be up for reelect. Donald Trump is rightly pointing out my support from black and Hispanic voters has skyrocketed. He is correct about this. Here he was yesterday.
The mugshot is the best. It just beat Elvis Presley and Frank Sinatra by a lot, by the way, beat him by a lot. But that's the number one mugshot of all time. It's it's really an amazing thing. Since it happened, the support among the black community and the Hispanic community has skyrocketed. It's been amazing. OK, meanwhile, Joe Biden's co-chair is now being reduced as a co-chair of his campaign.
Representative Veronica Escobar, she is being reduced to suggesting the American people have amnesia. When you are the candidate who's explaining why the American people are wrong, you're losing baseline rule of American politics. If you are the candidate who's going around telling the American people they are delusional and crazy, you're losing the election. Here's Biden's co-chair saying the American people have amnesia. By the way, Joe Biden's campaign co-chair should not be going around questioning the mental facility of the people who are voting upon him.
That's it. Joe Biden is the one there are serious mental questions about.
More voters think that Trump did a better job in office than Biden. Does that concern you? It does. I do think that people have amnesia. And as I've been talking to communities across the country for the campaign, especially Latino communities, I have reminded them about what we experienced for four years under Trump, what Trump left the current president, President Biden, with, but also what he's promising to do.
If you, again, are saying the American people have amnesia, you have a serious problem. So what is Joe Biden going to do in the debate tonight? Well, he has to come out feisty. And here is the problem for Joe Biden. Feisty Joe Biden lasts like 30% on a debate stage. He is not going to be able to go a full 90 minutes being feisty. He's just not. He tried to come out feisty, if you remember, in the Robert Herr press conference. For the first 15 minutes, it was okay because he had a teleprompter in front of him. Then he got off the teleprompter and things started to go bad real quick.
In the debate, there is no teleprompter. Joe Biden cannot rely on just having high energy and reading off of a screen. He's going to have to actually make his brain work. This is why it is incumbent on Donald Trump to let Joe Biden talk. And when Joe Biden breaks early in an answer, he says, anyway, my time is right. Donald Trump needs to say, Joe, you have plenty of time. We all hear what you want to say.
It's going to be the single most important thing he can do tonight is get Joe Biden to talk. That is the most important thing that Donald Trump can do tonight. You pair that with Donald Trump not looking volatile. That is the second most important thing he can do tonight. Maybe the most important. The perception that Joe Biden wants to leave with the American people is that Donald Trump is too volatile to be president of the United States. That is really the character argument that he's making against Trump, because, again, he can't run on his record. So he's instead going to run on the idea that Donald Trump is a crazy person. You can't have a crazy person in office.
All Donald Trump has to do is look not crazy. That's it. That is an actual pretty low bar for Donald Trump. Because remember, if the fundamentals of the race are the same coming out of the debate as they are going into the debate, Joe Biden is losing. He is right now playing from behind. So the media are already pre-spinning Joe Biden losing here. Chuck Todd of MSNBC, he says that the Biden team has actually crafted rules that help Donald Trump. Now, there may be some truth to this. It's unintentional.
The fact that Donald Trump can't jump in and talk over Biden on the mic might actually help Donald Trump. Because again, the longer Joe Biden talks and the more you see of Joe Biden fading, the better it is for Donald Trump. The lack of the crowd is not going to help Donald Trump. But MSNBC is now trying to make the claim that the debate is stacked against Biden. That's how badly they are afraid he's going to lose this debate, which is pretty crazy since again, Joe Biden's team set all the rules, not some of them, all of them. They named the network.
They'd already agreed on the anchors. They agreed on the dates. That's why this is happening so early. Usually you don't get presidential debates until well after the conventions. We're doing this in June because Biden is so afraid that he's going to fall over in this debate that he needs months to recover in the polling data. Here is MSNBC trying to pre-spin Joe Biden losing. They so want to have a different experience than the last debate they had with him or the first debate from the last cycle. And ironically, it's the single best debate Biden had, right? Because he's
Trump's behavior really sort of almost cemented Biden's lead by that point. And it may have done Trump in at that point. And now here's the Biden campaign trying to come up with a set of rules to make sure Trump seems more presentable. I have to say it's a real in when you sort of look at their motivation here.
And given the experience they had four years ago, it's a head scratcher to me that they went so out of their way to try to create an environment that will make Trump seem more presidential. Again, they're pre-spinning this.
The reality is the Democrats wanted to set these rules because they were afraid that Donald Trump would get in a jab at Biden in the middle of the debate that basically put Biden on the floor. That's what they're afraid of. They're afraid he's going to sneak in and he was that Joe Biden would start fumbling his words and Donald Trump would then say, well, there he goes. And that would be the end of it. That's what they're really trying to stop. That's what they're doing with the mics. But again, the pre-spin shows how afraid the left is of this debate.
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Have you seen Donald Trump? There's a real good shot he ain't doing actual debate prep. I actually fundamentally agree with the Biden camp on this. This idea that Donald Trump is not preparing is preposterous. Now, his team is not using the word preparation, but that's likely because of who their candidate is. He doesn't want to think that he has to prepare. But we know that his senior advisors have been watching old debate clips. They have brought it up in calls with reporters. We know that Donald Trump himself has had a number of these policy sessions.
So again, they're trying to pre-spin this thing. One of the big aspects of this particular debate is going to be what happens with the anchors. So my prediction is that the anchors won't be quite as bad as everybody thinks they're going to be. So I think there are a lot of folks who think that the anchors are going to spend 90 minutes just grilling Trump about January 6th.
I doubt that. I think that the anchors are actually going to ask some interesting questions to Joe Biden because, again, this is the most important debate, I think, of any of our lifetimes. And what that probably means is that Jake Tapper and Dana Bash do not want to be on the receiving end of a brutal review in which they basically end up the Candy Crowley of 2012. You remember Candy Crowley jumped into the middle of a debate between Mitt Romney and Obama that Romney was clearly winning and proceeded to shift the debate by falsely fact-checking Mitt Romney.
So, you know, I don't think they want that. And I think Biden's not going to respond very well to that. So what exactly is Trump's strategy? Well, he has a two pronged strategy. One is that he is going to keep reminding voters over and over of the fact that Joe Biden is fading and fading badly right now. Polling, by the way, shows that voters believe this. A poll out from Daily Mail shows that 70 percent of people want both men screen for pharmaceuticals when they face off during the debate. That's not going to happen, obviously.
But most Americans are very suspicious that Joe Biden is getting pumped with something in order to get himself ready for all of this. Meanwhile, Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is now saying that the House is going to sue the DOJ to get the Joe Biden interview audio, which of course makes sense because the more tape you have of Joe Biden in long form, the less with it he looks. In fact, the Trump campaign is going to air an ad during the debate on CNN pointing out that Joe Biden is falling down on the job. Here's what that ad looks like.
I'm Donald Trump, and I approve this message.
OK, so that's pretty vicious. It's a pretty vicious. It's accurate and it's vicious. But it's going to assume that Joe Biden has one of these moments. And say when you see the Joe Biden, you see that. So they are very confident that Joe Biden is going to start mumbling over himself again. I think there's a good possibility that that happens. But the reality is that the more telling tactic that Donald Trump is now using is he is talking up the fact that Joe Biden is dishonest. They should treat Biden as though he's a normal debate participant. And then if he happens to stumble over himself, which he very well might.
Then they can point that out. But the reality is that this is not a referendum on Joe Biden's senility. This is a referendum on Joe Biden's presidency. Well, if Americans look at tonight's debate and they decide to replace Joe Biden with somebody else, now they only have a certain limited number of options. But if you're looking to upgrade your business, you need more options than that.
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So Trump put out a post yesterday saying Crooked Joe Biden's handlers are loudly and profusely complaining there will be no fact checkers during the debate on Thursday. Actually, that's just disinformation. They could not be happier because there's nobody as loose with the truth as Crooked Joe.
From the 51 fake intelligence agents to Russia, Russia, Russia, to the fake suckers and losers story he created about our beloved military, to cheating in college and saying he was first in his law school class when he was actually last, to claiming he marched for civil rights, drove trucks, has a 6.2 handicap, he can't hit the golf ball 10 yards, but it's a minor detail, and so many more falsehoods. The man is a walking, lying machine and a fact checker's dream. And then he pondered whether he should start calling him Lyin' Joe.
Hey, that's actually going to be, I think, the central setup that Trump has to do at the very beginning. He should let the audience just draw the conclusion that Joe Biden is not with it. He shouldn't have to say it. It'll show itself on screen. He should treat Joe Biden as though Joe Biden is just as with it as Hillary Clinton was in 2016.
And then if the opportunity presents itself, he should simply point to Joe Biden. If Joe Biden does, in fact, stumble over himself or mix up the presidents of Mexico and Egypt, then he should just say, Joe, I think what you meant is or Joe. There you go again, Joe. I know you're having a rough time up here, but it's hard to watch you, man. If that opportunity presents itself, you should certainly go for it. But here's the thing. On policy alone, he can win this debate and he should win this debate on policy alone.
The Biden economy is not good. How bad is the Biden economy? It is amazing to me, but to watch politicians who know better suggest that the inflation of the last several years is caused by corporate greed. It's such absolute sheer nonsense and it makes no internal sense. There's no internal logic to it. Were corporations less greedy in 2018 and then they suddenly became magically greedy in 2021?
Or maybe it's that inflation is a monetary phenomenon in which too many dollars are following too few goods and services. Now, the Biden administration is attempting to push around companies. According to Axios, quote, companies that announced splashy price reductions can expect public praise from the highest level of government. For those that don't, a tax on sky-high profit margins, so-called junk fees and the like.
This is unbelievable. So the Biden administration is now leaking to Axios that they are going to literally attack companies that don't artificially lower prices in time for the election. They want corporations to take a corporate hit so that Joe Biden will not slander them publicly. They effectively want to blackmail corporate America. Now, I know that Democrats have done this historically.
Back during the Great Recession, Barack Obama famously called in a bunch of banking heads and said, I'm the only thing standing between you and the pitchforks. So I need you to kowtow to me. And they basically did. Now, Joe Biden is doing the same thing. It ain't going to work this time because you can't lower your profit margins to the point where you are bleeding money. Why would they have to if the economy is going so gung ho, according to Joe Biden? In recent weeks, the administration has applauded Target, Walmart and other grocery chains for beginning to, quote, answer the president's call to lower prices for household goods.
In a speech last week, top White House economist Lael Brainard said grocery store margins remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic times. Brainard said some grocery stores are answering the president's call and lowering prices on thousands of items. This is smart, but corporations have to do more to bring their prices down. Now, again, this is an absurdity. And Trump should point it out. He should say, Joe, if your economy is so good, why are you having to blackmail corporations into lowering their prices?
Why is that a thing you have to do? Why is it that your Inflation Reduction Act did not reduce inflation? Joe Biden certainly will cite this ridiculous letter of 16 Nobel Prize winning economists who suggest that Trump is going to increase the inflation rate. Trump needs to point out 13 of those 16 said the Inflation Reduction Act would actually reduce inflation. One of them is apparently married to Janet Yellen. So give me a break. Meanwhile, on immigration.
This is the worst single issue for Joe Biden. He is deeply underwater on immigration, as he should be. And Joe Biden needs to be asked a very simple question. How many Americans are you willing to let die in order to keep the border open? It's that simple. It's that simple. So yesterday, Alejandro Mayorkas was doing a press conference. He's the head of the Department of Homeland Security. And he was called out over the murder of a 12-year-old girl by an illegal immigrant. The girl's name is Jocelyn Nungary. So he was asked by a reporter at a press conference,
You know, why is it that an illegal immigrant wearing an ankle monitor killed a 12 year old girl? Obviously, the media, the nation has had their eyes on the brutal crimes committed recently by illegal immigrants. One of them was actually wearing an ice ankle monitor. Yet this morning, you said in an interview that the safety of the American people is the priority and that these individuals are vetted. But we know in our conversations with the ICE director, we've heard the FBI director say that there are significant gaps involved.
Again, if your heart was really with the people who are suffering, then perhaps you should close the border. All Donald Trump has to do is list off the names.
of a wide variety of people who have been murdered in the past six months by illegal immigrants under Joe Biden's border policy. Meanwhile, there was a report from NBC News just this week that there are 50 ISIS-linked people walking around in the United States after being allowed into the country by Joe Biden. Mayorkas is trying to deny that report. Here he was yesterday. DHS confirms that at least 400 migrants with potential ISIS ties recently crossed into the United States. That is incorrect. Tell us why.
That reporting is incorrect. We do not have identified 400 people with potential ISIS ties. And let me again assure you that individuals who are identified to have those ties would pose a concern to us from a public safety and security perspective, and they would be priorities for
detained detention and removal. Calling that initial NBC report inaccurate over the 400 potential ISIS ties. I think it is inaccurate. Oh, it's inaccurate. It's just there are a few who are walking around in the United States. Representative Chip Roy correctly points out that it is Joe Biden's executive branch that is allowing people in the United States to be killed.
By the way, a tyrannical executive branch which has allowed people to get killed, right? We just had this woman, Rachel Morin, in Maryland who was killed, brutally raped and murdered. She wasn't the first in her county. Kayla Hamilton, two years ago, brutally raped and murdered. Texan, Lizbeth Medina, killed, found in a bathroom. The little girl, 13 years old, who was raped in New York. A 12-year-old in Iowa who was raped because we're allowing people to get dumped into our communities who are criminals.
That is the point that Donald Trump needs to make tonight. Again, on policy, on policy, Joe Biden is going to lose this debate, which means that he only wins this debate if Donald Trump really screws up. All the pressure is on Biden, which is probably why he's been hiding in a bunker for the last six days being jabbered at by 16 people. We'll see how that works out for him since people in stage two of dementia have kind of a tough time with many people in their arena trying to give them advice.
We'll get to the possibility that if Joe Biden loses this debate, the world gets way more dangerous. I'll explain why in a moment. First, again, we have to be careful.
Let me remind you, tonight is the big night. DailyWare Backstage is going live. You're not going to want to miss a second of it. Here's what's happening. DailyWare Plus is simulcasting the entire presidential debate. But let's be real. You need more than just politicians spouting and talking points. As the debate unfolds, you'll get real-time analysis from me, Matt Walsh, Michael Knowles, Andrew Klavan, and Jeremy Boring. We are kicking things off 8.30 p.m. Eastern with a pre-show that will arm you with the facts the mainstream media won't tell you. Because we believe in giving you the full story, we're sticking around after the debate. Our post-show recap will dissect what this all means for the future of our republic.
Look, if you truly want to understand what's at stake in this election, you need to experience this debate with voices you can trust. Daily Wire backstage live tonight, 8.30 p.m. Eastern. Watch it at dailywire.com. Okay, meanwhile.
Now, there are real consequences to what happens in this debate. The world's eyes are on this debate. I think we're in a bit of a unique situation right here, which is that America's enemies are freaked out by Trump. They really, really are. Iran is freaked out by Trump. China is freaked out by Trump. Even Russia is freaked out by Trump because the reality is that for all the talk among some coteries of the Trump base,
that somehow Russia is good and Ukraine is bad. That's not actually Trump's position. Trump's position is that he wants to reach an off ramp between Ukraine and Russia, but he's going to support Ukraine up to the point where that off ramp can be reached. Vladimir Putin does not like the unpredictability of Donald Trump. He actually doesn't like it very much, which is why he didn't invade Ukraine while Donald Trump was president. He did it while Obama was president in 2014. He did it while Biden was president in 2022. He didn't do it while Trump was president.
So what happens if Donald Trump starts to open up a big lead? If Donald Trump does well tonight, the lead that he has in the polling data is going to increase by a point or two. And suddenly it looks like a five point Trump lead or a six point Trump lead among likely voters. If that happens, if suddenly Donald Trump looks like he is on the verge of blowing out Joe Biden, he's going to win the swing states, might pick off New Hampshire, might pick off Minnesota.
Let's say you're an enemy of the United States. Then your timeline gets real short indeed. At that point, you're like, I got to go while the going is good. I got to move while Joe Biden is president. And this is, in fact, a problem for the United States. The reality is that America's allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, Taiwan, that those allies are waiting for Donald Trump to come back into office.
If Donald Trump had been elected in 2020, there would have been a Saudi agreement with the Israelis in February of 2021 guaranteed. That is not speculation. That is reality. That would have happened. October 7th probably would have been forestalled in the first place if Donald Trump had been president of the United States. China would be on its much better behavior because they would be afraid that Donald Trump is just crazy enough to defend Taiwan. Russia probably would not have gone into Ukraine because they didn't know exactly what Donald Trump was going to do.
There's something called the madman strategy when it comes to foreign policy, and that is be crazy enough that your opponent doesn't want to fight you because you never know what he's going to do. And Donald Trump has that one down to a T. But what happens if they are now looking at a certain timeline of Joe Biden being defeated and leaving office in January? It means you go now. It means you go before Trump enters office. It means that if you're Iran, you ratchet up the pressure by unleashing Hezbollah, for example. It means that if you're Iran,
You start pushing really, really hard to accelerate your nuclear program before Donald Trump enters office and then does something to forestall your nuclear program.
And by the way, this is exactly what Iran is doing. It's not me saying this. This is the New York Times saying this. Quote, throughout Iran's presidential campaign and debates, rallies and speeches, a singular presence has hovered. Donald J. Trump. To hear the six candidates tell it, the former president's victory in the 2024 White House race is a foregone conclusion. The urgent question facing Iranian voters as they go to the polls on Friday is who is best suited to deal with him. They hardly ever mention Biden. They never bring up the many polls suggesting the American election will be extremely close. Instead, Trump's name is invoked again and again.
Wait and you will see what happens when Trump comes. One candidate, cleric Mustafa Pourmohammadi, said during a recent televised debate, we have to get ready for negotiations. Another candidate, Alireza Zakhani, Tehran's mayor, accused his rivals of having Trump phobia and saying only he could manage him. Iranians have ample reason to be wary of another Trump presidency. It was Trump who unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of Iran's deal with world powers over its nuclear program. Trump also imposed tough economic sanctions targeting Iran.
So could Iran start to accelerate its timeline on terrorism and expansionism while Joe Biden is in office? That is certainly a possibility. I've been worried about this for a while. This is also true with regard to China. So I said at the very beginning of the year, my out of the box prediction, if this election started to break open after the debates or after the conventions, the possibility of a Chinese blockade on Taiwan becomes incredibly severe. Why? Because if they do it when Trump is president, he might do something about it. They believe they will be able to
wheedle a better deal out of Joe Biden than they will be able to wheedle out of Donald Trump. Donald Trump reacts to threat with aggressiveness. Joe Biden reacts to threat with cowardice, and they know this. So if they have a choice between blockading Taiwan while Biden is president or blockading Taiwan while Trump is president, and they're already certain that Biden's going to lose, maybe they go. And maybe the reason they're forestalling action right now is because they believe that Biden might still win. And then they have a longer time horizon. They can do what they want with Taiwan. But if they see the end of this tunnel coming,
and they see the daylight, that is the Trump administration, coming back in, they might need to do what they do in darkness while Biden is still the president. So I think the possibility of significant global conflict radically escalates as the election approaches if Donald Trump is winning. That is not because of Donald Trump. That is because the world looks at Joe Biden and they lick their lips. America's enemies lick their lips when they see Joe Biden.
By the way, it's not unprecedented for foreign actors to look at the prospect of future elections and then change their behavior based on the prospect of those future elections. So, for example, the Viet Cong in 1968, they started to stall negotiations with LBJ because they believed that Richard Nixon might come in and cut them a better deal.
The same thing happened in 2012 with regard to Russia. You remember Barack Obama sitting with Dmitry Medvedev and telling him, I'll have more flexibility after the election if you forestall action before the election. And you know what? Putin heard and he did. Putin did not get super duper aggressive in 2012. He waited until 2013, 2014. He waited until Barack Obama basically handed him control of Syria, essentially handed him control of Crimea and the Donbass region in 2014. He got exactly what he wanted.
This is what powers do. They're constantly gaming for moves by opposing powers. So if Joe Biden loses tonight and loses badly, if he stumbles over his words, the possibility of a serious national catastrophe being visited upon the United States grow in the period between now and when he leaves office, which, by the way, means that he loses really big because of any of those things happen. Well, Joe Biden is president. Let's say that China blockades Taiwan. Well, Joe Biden is president. That dude loses by 15 points.
Because the economic consequences of such a blockade, which could only be forestalled by a show of strength and will. Now, this is the dirty secret of Joe Biden's cowardice. Joe Biden's cowardice makes conflict so much more likely. Take the Middle East, for example.
If Joe Biden had said to Israel, go fast, go hard, finish the job, get back as many hostages as you can, take out Hamas, do it fast, and then set up some sort of regime that allows for your security and the reeducation of the Palestinian population away from their indoctrinated hatred of Jews. If he had said that, go fast, go hard, this thing would already be over. He's below would not be threatening Israel's northern border. It turns out that stalwartness, aggressive action on the foreign stage when it comes to small activities like historically the Hamas war is,
That forestalls the possibility of future war. But Joe Biden is such a rube and a coward when it comes to foreign policy that he couldn't do that. And everybody notices. Everybody notices. So it's going to become a very dangerous world between now and when Joe Biden loses office, if he in fact loses office, and if the perception is that he's going to lose office.
We are going to get to a couple of major decisions coming down from the Supreme Court. Neither of them particularly good for conservatives, despite all of the talk about how the Supreme Court is dominated by doctrinaire conservatives. That's not what the Supreme Court did yesterday. Well, the media keep portraying the Supreme Court as some sort of right wing tool. It's just a bunch of conservatives doing conservative things. They need to wake up and smell the coffee like black rifle coffee.
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Meanwhile, you remember that time the Supreme Court was supposed to be this radically conservative doctrinaire court? Yeah, well, there are a couple of opinions that came down yesterday. One of them leaked. Every abortion opinion at the Supreme Court now gets leaked. This particular abortion decision is not in favor of conservatives. Apparently, it's not in favor of conservatives.
Apparently, it's going to allow emergency rooms to perform abortions. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Supreme Court appears to appears ready to let emergency abortions be performed in Idaho, despite the state's near total ban on the procedure. According to a draft version of a decision, the court accidentally posted on its Web site Wednesday and then quickly removed by a 6-3 vote. The draft decision dismisses the state of Idaho's appeal of a lower court order temporarily permitting emergency abortions under federal law governing hospitals that accept Medicare.
Idaho state law forbids the procedure except when necessary to save a woman's life. The Biden administration argued federal law is more permissive, authorizing emergency abortions when needed to stabilize a patient in a health crisis. The Supreme Court issued a statement saying no decision was final. The draft order dismisses the case as improvidently granted. Six justices were ready to resolve the basic issue, but three did not want to do that. They sort of want to kick it off to a future day. The same thing happened, actually, with regard to a very important case.
about the pressure placed on social media platforms by the Biden administration and by the federal government generally. So as we've been following here at The Daily Wire for a long time, because we have a dog in this particular fight, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals had found in a federal case that the federal government could not put pressure on social media companies to take things down, that effectively the federal government using its power to force social media companies or to cudgel social media companies informally into doing their will
was a violation of the First Amendment. That's what the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals found. Yesterday, the Supreme Court declined to even take on the issue. They rejected a lawsuit alleging that the Biden administration officials unlawfully pressured social media platforms to remove content flagged as disinformation.
They say instead that no one had standing to sue. So instead of resolving the underlying issue, which is how far can the federal government go in communicating with private companies to get them to do things before they're violating the First Amendment, instead of taking that on, they kicked the can down the road by citing some sort of standing issue. According to the Wall Street Journal, the high court said the plaintiffs, which included a handful of doctors and anti-vax activists and a far-right web publisher, failed at a first fundamental step for any lawsuit showing they'd suffered specific injuries that judges are capable of redressing.
The lawsuit improperly asked the court, quote, to conduct a review of the years long communications between dozens of federal officials across different agencies with different social media platforms about different topics. According to the decision writer, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, this court standing doctrine prevents us from exercising such general legal oversight of the other branches of government. Now, this could all be stopped by an act of Congress. Congress could say the federal executive branch does not have the power or the capacity to attempt to cudgel social media platforms into doing their will.
Will Congress do that? With Democrats in charge of the Senate, very unlikely. Barrett noted online platforms had their own incentives to moderate content and enforce policies aimed at removing false and misleading content independent of discussions of the government. She said none of the plaintiffs could show that any of their speech that was restricted online was a result of pressure government officials placed on social media companies. Three conservatives dissented. This would be Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch.
Alito said for months, high ranking government officials placed unrelenting pressure on Facebook to suppress Americans free speech because the court unjustifiably refuses to address this serious threat to the First Amendment. I respectfully dissent. Of course, Alito, who is the second best justice on the court after Justice Thomas, is absolutely correct. It is absurd on every level that the federal Supreme Court is refusing to take up the issue as to how far the federal executive branch can go in pressuring private companies.
Alito's dissent is absolutely scathing. Alito says purely private entities like newspapers are not subject to the First Amendment. As a result, they may publish or decline to publish whatever they wish. But government officials may not coerce private entities to suppress speech. And that is what happened in this case. He says the record before us is vast. It contains evidence of communications between many different government actors and a variety of Internet platforms, as well as evidence regarding the effects of those interactions on the seven different plaintiffs.
For months in 2021 and 2022, a coterie of officials at the highest levels of the federal government continually harried and implicitly threatened Facebook with potentially crippling consequences if it did not comply with their wishes about the suppression of certain COVID-19 related speech. Not surprisingly, Facebook repeatedly yielded. The court shirks its duty and permits the successful campaign of coercion in this case to stand as an attractive model for future officials who want to control what people say, hear and think.
So again, the case that Alito is making is that you're wanting some sort of like clear threat, like a horse's head in a bed or something from the federal government to Facebook. But all you're really encouraging is subtle threats and intimidation from the federal government, which will now become the way this stuff is done. He is right about all of this, of course. And as he points out, the court may come to regret its willingness to allow the federal government to dictate terms this way. Alito concludes,
For months, high ranking government officials placed unrelenting pressure on Facebook to suppress Americans free speech because the court unjustifiably refuses to address the serious threats of the First Amendment. I respectfully dissent. Yep. Yep. Which means presumably the same sort of stuff is going to happen. Remember, this is exactly how the Hunter Biden laptop story got suppressed by the federal government. He had members of the FBI and CIA approaching social media and basically telling them, guys, you know, it might be Russian disinformation. Wink, wink, nod, nod.
And Facebook caved to all of that. So terrible decision from the United States Supreme Court, again, demonstrating when Democrats suggest that this court is doctrinaire on the right wing, then how do decisions like this happen? Okay, in just one second, we'll get to the craziest story of the day. A woman was denied an entry to a United Airlines flight for the great crime of quote unquote misgendering. If you're not a member, become a member, use code Shapiro, check out for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us. ♪