When we think about evolution, it is typically in the context of
natural history, seeking an explanation for the amazing diversity of life. Yet evolution is not only the matter of the past, but an ongoing dynamical process linking the past with the future. Evolutionary
dynamics is particularly apparent in rapidly mutating microbes and
viruses. For example, the virus causing seasonal flu continuously evolves to escape human immunity generated by previous
infections: because of this process, we get the flu again and again.
Can we understand evolutionary dynamics well enough to predict
the future, at least far enough to help with the flu vaccine updates?
This talk will review basic mechanisms of evolutionary dynamics and discuss some of the old and new approaches to evolutionary
forecasting and the challenges that they face. Surprisingly, ideas
from Theoretical Physics can be helpful in understanding
evolutionary dynamics.
