U.S.-China Crisis Management and Crisis Prevention, with Michael Swaine
Sinica Podcast
Deep Dive
What defines a crisis in the context of U.S.-China relations?
A crisis in U.S.-China relations involves threats to important interests by one or both sides, high levels of uncertainty and risk, and a sense of urgency. It often escalates due to neither side backing down and can include the possibility of military force.
How does crisis management differ from crisis prevention in U.S.-China relations?
Crisis management focuses on resolving a crisis once it has begun, balancing signals of commitment and accommodation to avoid escalation. Crisis prevention aims to avoid crises by establishing ground rules and confidence-building measures that reduce the likelihood of provocations.
What are the lessons learned from past U.S.-China crises, such as the Korean War?
The Korean War taught that ignoring Chinese warnings and underestimating their resolve can lead to significant miscalculations. Clear and serious communication, understanding the other side's concerns, and being cautious about assumptions are crucial for managing and preventing crises.
How does the Chinese principle of 'yǒulǐ, yǒulì, yǒu jié 有理, 有利, 有节' impact crisis management?
This principle, meaning 'on just grounds, to our advantage, and with restraint,' can lead to inflexible moralistic stances and reciprocal escalation, leaving little room for accommodation or de-escalation, especially in issues involving sovereignty.
Why is U.S. credibility concerning its alliance commitments a significant issue?
The U.S. needs to maintain the credibility of its commitments to allies like the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. However, this can also lead to rigid and assertive responses in crises, potentially drawing the U.S. into conflicts it might prefer to avoid.
What are some examples of how each side misinterprets the other's actions during crises?
In a simulation involving the Philippines, the U.S. backed its carrier away from a crisis area to show non-provocation, but the Chinese interpreted it as an escalation. Similarly, Japan's deployment of a ship named after a vessel from the Sino-Japanese War was seen as a deliberate provocation by the Chinese, though the Japanese had no such intention.
What are the dangers of misinterpreting China’s historical memory and the 'Tian Xia' ideology?
Misinterpreting China’s historical memory, such as the idea of the 'Tian Xia' system, can lead to gross simplifications and mistaken assumptions. These tropes often fail to account for the varied and complex relationships China had with its neighbors, which were not always hierarchical or based on dominance.
What are the problems with signaling in U.S.-China crisis management?
Both sides often assume that signals are well-coordinated and come from the top leadership, leading to misinterpretations. Unauthorized signals, particularly from media or lower-level officials, can also be misread, causing further tension. Clear and authoritative communication channels are essential to mitigate these issues.
What is Mike’s proposed two-tier dialogue structure for crisis management?
The two-tier structure includes a civilian-led forum for discussing policy and crisis prevention, and a more traditional military-led forum for crisis management. This approach aims to break down barriers and ensure a more flexible and coordinated exchange of ideas and information.
Why are track two dialogues important for crisis management?
Track two dialogues, involving non-officials, allow for more flexible and honest discussions compared to formal track one dialogues. Participants can explore different scenarios and perspectives without being constrained by official talking points, which helps in understanding the other side’s concerns and potential reactions.
What are the key structural issues in U.S. and Chinese decision-making systems that affect crisis management?
China's decision-making system can stovepipe information, limiting communication between the military and civilian branches. The U.S. also faces challenges in coordinating military actions with civilian oversight, particularly in operations near China’s borders. Both systems need better internal communication and a systemic approach to avoid miscalculations.
How can leaders be better educated on crisis management to prevent worst-case scenarios?
Educating lower-level officials who communicate with higher levels about past crises and the processes that led to them is crucial. Leaders need to understand the pitfalls, biases, and structural issues that can arise during crises and how to navigate them effectively.
Shownotes Transcript