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我关注即将到来的美国总统大选,我认为无论结果如何,这都将是一场具有历史意义的事件。现任总统乔·拜登在任期间的政策表现褒贬不一,但更重要的是,我们需要一位能够胜任总统职务的人。特朗普是共和党的候选人,他曾试图推翻公平选举的结果,这应该让他丧失再次竞选的资格。我认为特朗普是一个想要成为独裁者的人,这比他其他的缺点更重要。低信息选民容易被操纵,这并不令人惊讶,但媒体环境使得这种操纵比以往任何时候都更加有效。让我惊讶的是,精英阶层竟然会支持这些明显的反民主运动。我试图寻找解释,而不把我的对手描绘成卡通式的超级反派。我认为一些精英阶层缺乏对民主理想的真正信仰,他们认为自己应该掌权。成功的民主的关键在于人们承认个人不应该统治世界。民主很容易被自身破坏。无知的大众加上傲慢的精英是民主的长期问题。历史上,民主并非长久之计。美国民主可能无法持续下一个一百年。即使特朗普是民主党人,为了民主的运转,我也会投票给他。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does Sean Carroll consider the 2024 US presidential election as potentially momentous?

Sean Carroll considers the 2024 US presidential election potentially momentous due to historically unusual aspects, such as President Joe Biden dropping out of the race later than expected, and the ongoing presence of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for the third time. Carroll also highlights concerns about the fate of democracy in the US, given Trump's previous attempts to overturn the 2020 election results.

What is the quantum Zeno effect, and how does it work?

The quantum Zeno effect occurs when frequent measurements of a quantum system prevent it from evolving. For example, if a spin is rotated in small steps and measured after each step, the probability of it changing state decreases significantly. This effect is analogous to Zeno's paradox, where continuous observation can halt motion, and it has been experimentally observed in quantum systems.

Why does Sean Carroll argue that LIGO should not detect dark matter particle flows nearby?

Sean Carroll argues that LIGO should not detect dark matter particle flows nearby because the gravitational wave signals from dark matter are much weaker compared to those from colliding black holes. Dark matter flows are spread out over large distances and change slowly over millions of years, whereas LIGO detects rapid, high-energy events like black hole collisions, which produce much stronger gravitational waves.

What is Sean Carroll's view on the potential for AI to surpass human intelligence by 2029?

Sean Carroll does not take the idea of AI surpassing human intelligence by 2029 seriously. He acknowledges the dangers of AI but argues that current AI lacks the embodiment, motivations, and feelings that are crucial to human intelligence. Carroll believes that AI's ability to pass standardized tests does not equate to human-like intelligence, and he emphasizes the importance of understanding human intelligence before making such claims.

Why does Sean Carroll describe the 2024 US presidential election as a threat to democracy?

Sean Carroll describes the 2024 US presidential election as a threat to democracy because Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has previously attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Carroll argues that Trump's actions, including inciting a mob to attack the US Capitol and creating fake electors, are disqualifying for a presidential candidate. He warns that a second Trump presidency could lead to more effective autocratic attempts, undermining American democracy.

What is Sean Carroll's explanation for the arrow of time in quantum mechanics?

Sean Carroll explains that the arrow of time in quantum mechanics arises from the low entropy state of the early universe. In the many-worlds interpretation, time asymmetry comes from the initial condition of the Big Bang, leading to branching worlds in the future but not the past. In standard quantum mechanics, wave functions collapse toward the future, and the past cannot be reliably retrodicted, creating a fundamental time asymmetry.

What does Sean Carroll think about the idea of mandatory voting in the US?

Sean Carroll is open to the idea of mandatory voting if empirical evidence shows that it reduces polarization and improves democracy. However, he is skeptical that mandatory voting compels the 'sensible majority' to vote, as he believes that people who vote are generally better informed. Carroll also notes that the US and Australia differ in many ways beyond mandatory voting, making it difficult to isolate its effects.

Why does Sean Carroll believe that democracy is not guaranteed to last forever?

Sean Carroll believes that democracy is not guaranteed to last forever because history shows that democracies can collapse. He points to the US as an example, where the combination of low-information voters and elites supporting anti-democratic movements poses a long-term threat. Carroll emphasizes that democracy requires constant vigilance and a commitment to democratic principles to survive.

What is Sean Carroll's take on the idea of future generations having proportional representation in democratic forums?

Sean Carroll does not support the idea of future generations having proportional representation in democratic forums. He argues that it is impossible to know the preferences of future generations or how many of them there will be. While he believes current generations should consider the welfare of future generations, he does not think it is feasible or practical to give them a formal vote in democratic processes.

What is Sean Carroll's view on the role of media in the 2024 US presidential election?

Sean Carroll believes that the media has failed in its responsibility to cover Donald Trump accurately, often giving equal time to both sides despite Trump's blatant lies and anti-democratic actions. He argues that the media's traditional approach of neutrality does not work when one side is fundamentally untruthful. Carroll also rejects the idea that media outlets want Trump to win because he generates more attention, but he acknowledges that their coverage often benefits him.

Shownotes Transcript

Welcome to the November 2024 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters) (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreons, whittle them down to a more manageable number -- based primarily on whether I have anything interesting to say about them, not whether the questions themselves are good -- and sometimes group them together if they are about a similar topic. Enjoy!

Support Mindscape on Patreon).

Blog post with AMA questions and transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/11/04/ama-november-2024/)

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