cover of episode Revisited: are the world’s oldest people really that old?

Revisited: are the world’s oldest people really that old?

2024/12/24
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Madeleine Finlay
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Saul Newman
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Madeleine Finlay: 许多声称长寿的案例都来自预期寿命短、缺乏出生证明且存在文书错误和养老金欺诈的地区。例如，她估计2012年希腊72%的百岁老人是养老金欺诈案例。这表明，所谓的长寿地区可能存在数据偏差。 Saul Newman博士的研究质疑了长寿数据的可靠性，并因此获得了搞笑诺贝尔奖。他的研究表明，我们对长寿的理解可能存在偏差，许多流行的长寿观念可能基于不准确的数据。 Saul Newman的研究方法是通过数据库和简单的电子表格工具，追踪了世界上大部分极端高龄人群的出生和死亡地点。他发现，极端高龄人口往往来自记录不完善或贫困地区，例如法国的海外领土和英国的Tower Hamlets。在这些地区，贫困和养老金欺诈的压力可能导致虚报年龄的情况。 Saul Newman还提出了一个理论，解释了为什么极端高龄数据可能不可靠。由于数据错误随着时间的推移会呈指数级增长，导致高龄数据不可靠。 在希腊，他发现长寿数据可能存在大量养老金欺诈问题。希腊政府估计有2%的人口参与养老金欺诈，这表明长寿数据可能存在严重偏差。 数据错误也可能源于人们忘记或不知道自己的生日，以及出生证明等文件可能不完整或不一致。例如，冲绳的长寿数据可能与二战期间的记录损毁有关。 Saul Newman认为，所谓的“蓝色区域”长寿的观念是虚构的。他以冲绳为例，指出其数据与实际情况不符，例如冲绳的肥胖率很高，自杀率也很高，这与“蓝色区域”的描述不符。 关于长寿的建议往往迎合了人们的偏好，而非真实情况。长寿与财富水平密切相关，富裕和安全的地区通常预期寿命更长。 Saul Newman认为，需要开发一种能够准确测量人类年龄的技术，以解决长寿数据中存在的错误。他指出，他的研究受到了来自长寿研究界的强烈反对，但他认为他的数据和方法是公开透明的。 Saul Newman: 通过对全球80%极端高龄人口的出生和死亡地点进行追踪，发现许多长寿案例来自预期寿命短、缺乏出生证明、文书错误和养老金欺诈盛行的地区。 对2016年《自然》杂志发表的一项研究中发现的错误，引发了对长寿数据的怀疑，并促使他开展了这项研究。 他提出了一种理论模型，解释了年龄数据中的错误如何随着时间的推移而累积，最终导致高龄数据不可靠。即使错误率很低（例如万分之一），随着时间的推移，错误数据也会超过真实数据。 他的研究结果表明，在法国，大部分超级百岁老人来自海外领土，这些地区记录不完善；在英国，Tower Hamlets地区百岁老人的比例很高，但同时也是老年人贫困率最高的地区之一，这暗示了养老金欺诈的可能性。 在希腊，他估计至少72%的百岁老人是由于养老金欺诈而产生的虚假数据。 他指出，冲绳的长寿数据可能与二战期间的记录损毁有关，这解释了冲绳长寿数据中80%的差异。 他认为，“蓝色区域”长寿的观念是虚构的，因为这些地区的数据与实际情况不符。例如，冲绳的肥胖率、自杀率和肉类消费量都与“蓝色区域”的描述不符。 他认为，长寿研究需要改进数据收集和分析方法，并开发能够准确测量人类年龄的技术，以避免类似的错误再次发生。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Dr. Sol Newman win an Ig Nobel Prize?

He won for his research showing that many claims of people living extraordinarily long lives come from places with short lifespans, no birth certificates, and where clerical errors and pension fraud abound.

What method did Dr. Sol Newman use to investigate extreme longevity claims?

He tracked down 80% of all the extremely old people in the world, mapped them to their place of birth and death, and used databases along with manual research and spreadsheets.

What did Dr. Newman's research reveal about the accuracy of extreme longevity data?

His research suggested that beyond a certain point, the data for extremely old people is likely to be junk due to errors and fraud, making it unreliable.

What role does poverty play in extreme longevity claims?

Poverty, lack of birth certificates, and high rates of pension fraud are associated with more people reaching extreme ages, suggesting that these factors contribute to the appearance of extraordinary longevity.

How does Dr. Newman explain the high number of centenarians in Greece?

He speculates that at least 72% of Greek centenarians in 2012 were likely cases of pension fraud, where people claimed to be older to receive benefits.

What is the issue with the Blue Zones concept according to Dr. Newman?

The Blue Zones concept is based on flawed data and misrepresents the lifestyles of people in regions like Okinawa, where the actual data shows they do not follow the claimed healthy habits.

What does Dr. Newman suggest is needed to improve longevity research?

He argues that there needs to be a concerted effort to develop a method to physically measure human age accurately, as current data is plagued by errors and fraud.

How has the longevity research community responded to Dr. Newman's findings?

There has been significant backlash, with some researchers demanding his firing and failing to provide alternative explanations for the patterns he identified.

Chapters
This chapter explores Dr. Sol Newman's research questioning the reliability of longevity data. His Ig Nobel-winning work reveals that many claims of exceptionally long lifespans stem from regions with poor record-keeping, potentially leading to significant errors in data.
  • Many claims of exceptionally long lifespans are based on unreliable data.
  • Errors in age reporting can exponentially increase with time.
  • Beyond a certain age, longevity data becomes untrustworthy due to high error rates.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode from September, Madeleine Finlay speaks to Dr Saul Newman, an interdisciplinary researcher at University College London and the University of Oxford, who has recently won an Ig Nobel prize – given to scientific research that ‘first makes people laugh, and then makes them think’ – for his work showing that many claims of people living extraordinarily long lives come from places with short lifespans, no birth certificates, and where clerical errors and pension fraud abound. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod)