cover of episode Pelicot verdict, government shutdown, the Fed and Iran’s oil

Pelicot verdict, government shutdown, the Fed and Iran’s oil

2024/12/19
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Howard Schneider
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Jay Powell
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Jonathan Saul
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Juliette Jabkiro
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Scott Malone
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Juliette Jabkiro:多米尼克·佩里科被判犯有反复下药强奸妻子的罪名,此案在法国引发强烈反响,提高了人们对伴侣间性暴力和药物辅助性侵犯的认识。Gisèle Pellicot的勇气引发法国女性共鸣,促使法国女性反思自身经历,并推动了对药物辅助性侵犯的关注,也促使医疗专业人员反思其对潜在受害者的反应方式。 Scott Malone:特朗普总统当选人反对旨在避免政府停摆的两党措施,要求国会修改支出法案,取消债务上限,并威胁那些违反其意愿的共和党议员。如果美国违反债务上限,将导致技术性违约,从而动摇美国财政市场和全球市场。 Howard Schneider & Jay Powell:美联储进行了今年最后一次降息,但由于通货膨胀,强劲的美国经济以及特朗普的经济政策可能带来的影响,未来前景不明朗。美联储正在评估特朗普的经济政策对未来经济的潜在影响,并在经济前景不明朗的情况下,将放慢降息步伐。美联储不允许持有比特币。 Jonathan Saul:尽管受到西方国家的制裁,伊朗石油工业今年仍为德黑兰带来了超过500亿美元的收入。由于西方制裁,近一半的伊朗石油现在由伊朗革命卫队管理。伊朗革命卫队通过各种手段规避制裁,并负责伊朗石油的营销、分销和出口。通过伊朗革命卫队管理的石油出口帮助资助了该地区的一些民兵组织。伊朗革命卫队对石油的控制加剧了该地区冲突的复杂性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why has the Dominique Pelicot case resonated so strongly in France?

The case has raised awareness about sexual violence within couples and drug-facilitated assaults, prompting soul-searching among medical professionals and a surge in calls to a French hotline for victims of violence.

What is the significance of the Fed's final rate cut of the year?

The Fed cut rates by a quarter percentage point, but the outlook remains uncertain due to persistent inflation, a strong U.S. economy, and potential impacts of Trump's economic policies.

Why is Donald Trump threatening a government shutdown?

Trump is pressuring Congress to rewrite a stopgap spending bill, demanding the elimination of the federal debt ceiling and a clean continuing resolution without additional priorities, such as disaster aid and farm funding.

How has Iran's Revolutionary Guards gained control over the country's oil industry?

Western sanctions in the early 2010s forced Iran to rely on the Revolutionary Guards for oil marketing, distribution, and export, leveraging their expertise in sanctions-busting through networks and shadow fleets.

What impact does Iran's oil revenue have on regional conflicts?

Iran's oil revenue, managed by the Revolutionary Guards, funds militia groups involved in conflicts against Israel and other regional powers, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi militias.

What challenges does the Fed face in predicting economic changes under the incoming administration?

The Fed is uncertain about the impact of Trump's fiscal policies, leading to a slower pace of rate cuts and firmer inflation expectations, as they model different scenarios for the economy.

How has the Dominique Pelicot case influenced medical professionals in France?

The case has prompted medical professionals to seek training and re-examine how they respond to potential victims of drug-facilitated assaults, recognizing past failures in identifying such cases.

What is the potential global impact if the U.S. breaks its debt ceiling?

A U.S. default on its bonds would shake the Treasury market and global financial markets, leading to significant economic instability.

Shownotes Transcript

Dominique Pelicot has been found guilty of all charges and sentenced to 20 years. The mass rape trial in France has transformed the victim, Gisele Pelicot, into a stirring symbol of courage and resilience. Donald Trump has disrupted bipartisan efforts to dodge a government shutdown, pressuring Republicans to reject a stopgap bill. The Fed’s rate cut lands as expected, but policymakers are starting to price in expectations of economic changes under the incoming administration. And Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on

the country’s oil.

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